Oddbean new post about | logout
▲ ▼
Jason Ansley | Fractional COO | $GUARD WDWP#31 $BT... | 1 months ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +3 
 Probability wise the easiest way to determine this would be to use the Delta which incorporates current implied volatility.

I’m on mobile so I don’t have my Options trading app up to go that far out in time.

But basically the 20 Delta which is ~68% expected move proxy on the bell curve, or 1σ on the Puts and Calls of the BTC Futures contract (perpetual) would place BTC’s expected move to be
~ $83,150 to  $155,750

If implied vol changes (which it does as it is not a constant) then the expected move will also change and could expand to a 2σ or 3σ move.
▲ ▼
Jason Ansley | Fractional COO | $GUARD WDWP#31 $BT... | 1 months ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +1 
 The above is based on current volatility and target date Oct 25
▲ ▼
jake | 1 months ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +1 
 Thanks for sharing. I think that range you mention is much more achievable. What's interesting from the commentary I heard today, was that the China mining ban in 2021 seriously dampened that blow off top. If that's true, then a lot of the technical stuff is undershooting this bull run...