Oddbean

> My guess is it’s highly likely and if so we’ll see a ~100,000 bitcoin buy probably announced on Monday morning. 70 billion funded from ATM sales and 30 billion from convertible debt. It could be 200,000 next week and 400,000 the week after that. 👀

I think he meant 7 billion and 3 billion. But the math on the BTC buy is right. The range of the upcoming purchase is likely between 90k and 135k BTC depending on the price and what % of the trading volume was made up by ATM sales.

He is doing some amazing and creative things, but I don’t believe in perpetual motion machines. They don’t exist in nature, and I don’t believe they exist in finance. Can’t tell you where the flaw is here, but there is one, and the size of the stack built on that flaw is getting huge. When this stops, I hope it is gradually, not suddenly. Best case - NAV share price 5 years from now.

The flaw is that the amount of people willing to keep purchasing MSTR shares will eventually be exhausted. This has the same flair of the NVIDIA mania a year ago. The stock eventually corrected, but continued to go up at a more reasonable rate. Eventually the MSTR mania phase WILL end.

This. Also, the difference between NVIDIA and MSTR is that there's potential for NVIDIA to continue to produce new and innovative things. MSTR's value proposition IS the mania flywheel... until the mania ends.

I think you all are heavily underestimating how inefficient the capital markets are. There's money trapped in convertible bond silos that can't buy anything else and mstr is how that monetary energy is being pushed into btc. But there's way more that just that ~1 trillion market. The arguement that eventually mstr runs out of buyers is true the way eventually we have the heat death of the universe. The interesting things are between then and now.

Perhaps... I would say you just may be heavily underestimating the effects the next typically severe bear market could have on MSTR's appeal as a derivative of a disappointingly performing commodity. There's not much point to quibbling over what is ultimately unknowable, though. Suffice it to say, I would be perfectly happy if the mania continued until the heat death of the universe - BTC coming along for that ride is good enough for me.

I think all of these things can be true for indefinite but not infinite periods of time. When they started borrowing at 0% in their latest convert - at least 10,000 pairs of eyes had to open. “How do i get some of that free money?” Over the next several quarters you would expect the number of vehicles to grow to match the demand. Classic arbitrage with some fiat ZIRP gas thrown on top. 6 months seems like a long time, but it’s nothing. I might be wrong, but expect a bunch of copycats that rhyme with this even if they don’t repeat it. That should shrink the premium.

It looks perpetual from the fiat paradigm. The end is when MicroStrategy has siphoned all the wealth available at their level because bitcoin is the greater asset here that perfectly keeps its energy. From the fiat world it looks like its going up forever because you never see a downfall from within but from the bitcoin perspective MicroStrategy is just attracting wealth using the blackhole that is bitcoin. If they stay the only big company to play the bitcoin game then they will have 99% of all the wealth available at their level, they will starve their opponents to death if they don't play the same rules themselves. The bitcoin game theory at wall street's scale is on. Other competitors will have to adopt the bitcoin standard during next months in order to survive. It's happening 🫡 Nation states are next.