Oddbean

I do believe we have entered the so called suddenly phase. What’s changed, well believe it or not, it’s not the ETF’s, or the options on top of them. It’s not the red wave, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, or the supposed nation state announcement happening at the Bitcoin Mena conference. All of that is insanely bullish and absolutely fuel on the fire. But we’re in the suddenly phase because of MicroStrategy. If you’ve been following $MSTR as closely as I and others in the MSTR True North community have this won’t be news to you, but I know many of my humble sat stacking pleb, freak, and dirtbag friends don’t realize that the MicroStrategy strategy has evolved and Saylor has pushed the pedal straight through the floorboard. The past 4 years he’s been building a flywheel, and now it’s finally spinning. If you want a full breakdown I can’t recommend listening to Saylor’s presentation during the most recent earnings call enough, he put all the cards on the table. Laid bare everything (and more) that the MSTR community had pieced together over the past months. I’ll try and keep it simple, but the 21/21 plan was the starting gun, it was the announcement that there were no longer any training wheels on and that the flywheel was spinning up. Since then the company has issued 7% of the weekly trading volume via ATM offerings each week. The more liquidity the stock is trading + the more the stock goes up = the more $ that 7% has gotten them = the larger their bitcoin purchases have been. Now this has only happened for two weeks so far, but this past week they were the most liquid stock in the entire stock market. We’ll find out likely on Monday or Tuesday if he’s made it 3 in a row. My guess is it’s highly likely and if so we’ll see a ~100,000 bitcoin buy probably announced on Monday morning. 70 billion funded from ATM sales and 30 billion from convertible debt. It could be 200,000 next week and 400,000 the week after that. Higher stock price = more liquidity = more ATM sales = more bitcoin = higher stock price = more liquidity….get it? There are not nearly enough bitcoin available below $100k to keep this up. Things are accelerating extremely rapidly. This supposed sell wall is an ant hill in the face of the kind of buying MSTR is doing. This is the main gist of the story but if you’d like to dive deeper there’s plenty more to it. Upcoming index inclusions (nitrous in the flywheels engine), convertible debt, other future debt instruments. It all points to an undeniable reality. MicroStrategy is now single handedly forcing the suddenly phase (aka hyperbitcoinization) to begin. Add on all of the other massively bullish catalysts on the horizon and it’s quite clear, DON’T SELL YOUR BITCOIN!