Oddbean new post about login | logout The flaw is that the amount of people willing to keep purchasing MSTR shares will eventually be exhausted. This has the same flair of the NVIDIA mania a year ago. The stock eventually corrected, but continued to go up at a more reasonable rate. Eventually the MSTR mania phase WILL end.
This. Also, the difference between NVIDIA and MSTR is that there's potential for NVIDIA to continue to produce new and innovative things. MSTR's value proposition IS the mania flywheel... until the mania ends.
I think you all are heavily underestimating how inefficient the capital markets are. There's money trapped in convertible bond silos that can't buy anything else and mstr is how that monetary energy is being pushed into btc. But there's way more that just that ~1 trillion market. The arguement that eventually mstr runs out of buyers is true the way eventually we have the heat death of the universe. The interesting things are between then and now.
Perhaps... I would say you just may be heavily underestimating the effects the next typically severe bear market could have on MSTR's appeal as a derivative of a disappointingly performing commodity. There's not much point to quibbling over what is ultimately unknowable, though. Suffice it to say, I would be perfectly happy if the mania continued until the heat death of the universe - BTC coming along for that ride is good enough for me.
I think all of these things can be true for indefinite but not infinite periods of time. When they started borrowing at 0% in their latest convert - at least 10,000 pairs of eyes had to open. “How do i get some of that free money?” Over the next several quarters you would expect the number of vehicles to grow to match the demand. Classic arbitrage with some fiat ZIRP gas thrown on top. 6 months seems like a long time, but it’s nothing. I might be wrong, but expect a bunch of copycats that rhyme with this even if they don’t repeat it. That should shrink the premium.