Kamala Harris's housing plan is most aggressive since post-World War II boom, experts say
==========

Kamala Harris's housing plan aims to boost U.S. housing supply significantly; experts Jim Parrott and Mark Zandi claim it is the most aggressive since post-WWII; U.S. needs 3 million more homes, primarily affordable; plan includes $25,000 down payment assistance for first-time buyers; expands Low-Income Housing Tax Credit to increase affordable rentals; tax breaks for builders selling to first-time buyers; new tax credit for renovating unsellable homes; plan costs $125 billion, requiring funding through tax revenue or spending cuts; warns of long-term economic harm from worsening housing crisis; Donald Trump proposes easing regulations to lower housing costs; Republican platform blames high costs on illegal immigration and includes demand- and supply-side measures.

#KamalaHarris #HousingPlan #AffordableHousing #UsPolitics #2024Election #DonaldTrump #HousingCrisis #Economy #TaxPolicy #Construction

https://fortune.com/2024/08/24/kamala-harris-housing-plan-affordable-construction-postwar-supply-boom-donald-trump/ 

 Workers won’t accept less than $81,000 for a new role right now
==========

Workers are unwilling to accept salaries below $81,147 for new roles despite fears of job loss; a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey indicates 4.4% of respondents expect unemployment, matching pandemic levels; tech layoffs, such as Cisco's, contribute to job insecurity; job seekers' reservation wage has increased by nearly $20,000 since March 2020; dissatisfaction with wages and promotion opportunities is rising, especially among women and low-income individuals; nearly 30% of surveyed workers were job hunting in July 2024, the highest since March 2014; the transition rate to new employers reached 7.1%, surpassing levels during The Great Resignation.

#Employment #Salary #JobMarket #Ai #Unemployment #FederalReserve #JobHunting #EconomicTrends #WorkerExpectations #Layoffs

https://fortune.com/2024/08/21/worker-reservation-wage-job-new-york-fed-survey/ 

 U.S. investors are dominating Europe's AI scene—and learning to live with the old continent’s regulators
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U.S. investors have significantly increased their presence in Europe's AI sector, with funding growing 10x over the past decade; as of mid-2024, American investors have invested 20x more in European Generative AI than any other country; the Magnificent Seven tech giants engaged in 15 deals with European AI startups last year; 40-50% of late-stage funding in European AI comes from U.S. investors; Microsoft invested $16 million in Mistral, raising concerns about U.S. influence in EU tech; France, Germany, and Italy advocate for laxer AI regulations, influenced by large corporations; U.S. companies must comply with EU regulations like GDPR to enter European markets; lawsuits against Microsoft indicate a shift towards regulating AI in the U.S.; U.S. investors should study European AI companies and their regulatory environments.

#Ai #Investment #Europe #Regulation #Technology #Us #Funding #Microsoft #GenerativeAi #Startups

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/08/22/us-investors-europe-ai-learning-regulators-tech-finance/ 

 A CEO gave employees $2,500 in hazard pay for dealing with vitriol sparked by his pro-Trump email
==========

Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino provided $2,500 hazard pay to 79 customer-service employees due to backlash from a pro-Trump email and social media post. Employees received death threats and abusive messages following the communication. Constantino stated he would repeat the action, emphasizing that sharing political views can lead to significant backlash. He noted the fine line between values and ideology in corporate settings, referencing former AT&T CEO Anne Chow's experience after RBG's death. The article discusses the impact of partisan politics in business and how customers can choose to disengage if they disagree with a company's stance.

#Ceo #HazardPay #Trump #Politics #EmployeeSafety #CustomerService #CorporateValues #Backlash #StickerMule #Constantino

https://fortune.com/2024/08/22/sticker-mule-ceo-hazard-pay-trump/ 

 The yen is finally strengthening. That could be bad for corporate Japan's record profits
==========

Japanese companies in the Topix 500 Index earn 45% of revenue outside Japan; record quarterly profits reached ¥15 trillion ($104 billion) for the quarter ending June 30, 2024, a 9% increase year-on-year; yen traded at an average of ¥156 against the dollar in April-June, 12% lower than the previous year, but has since strengthened to around ¥145; analysts estimate each 1 yen appreciation reduces profits by 0.4-0.6%; concerns about sustainability of earnings due to weak demand in China and potential U.S. recession; companies like Olympus and Mitsubishi Chemical assumed a weaker yen in profit estimates; 64% of Topix companies beat expectations in the last quarter; analysts remain hopeful for a soft landing for the U.S. economy.

#Yen #Japan #CorporateProfits #Economy #Finance #Topix #China #UsEconomy #StockMarket #Earnings

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/08/22/yen-appreciation-hurt-corporate-japan-record-profits-china-earnings-topix-shares/ 

 Countries like Malaysia and Thailand are flocking to join BRICS as a potential ‘counterweight against U.S. economic hegemony’
==========

Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim met India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi on August 20, 2024, in New Delhi; Malaysia and Thailand are seeking to join BRICS, which recently expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE; Over 30 nations have expressed interest in joining BRICS, according to South Africa's foreign minister Naledi Pandor; BRICS aims to represent the Global South, especially post-Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022; Joining BRICS could provide Malaysia with trade deals and investments, while Thailand hopes to boost its economy; Malaysia's GDP per capita is nearly equal to China's; BRICS was founded in 2009 and includes countries that account for about 40% of the world's population and a quarter of global GDP; The New Development Bank, established in 2014, has approved over $32 billion in loans since 2015; Malaysia and Thailand's economies are significantly larger than Ethiopia's and comparable to Iran's and Egypt's; BRICS lacks formal trade agreements and faces geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and India; Countries like Malaysia and Thailand may view BRICS membership as economically beneficial despite potential risks.

#Brics #Malaysia #Thailand #Geopolitics #Economy #Trade #China #India #Us #GlobalSouth

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/08/21/why-do-malaysia-thailand-want-to-join-brics-hedge-china-russia-us/ 

 Trump defends Fed policy talk, hints at rate-cut push
==========

Donald Trump defended his comments on Federal Reserve policy, asserting he has the right to discuss interest rates; he mentioned past discussions with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell during his presidency; Trump criticized Vice President Kamala Harris's $25,000 down payment assistance plan for first-time homebuyers, calling it a 'big mistake'; he hinted at possibly offering support to struggling homebuyers; Trump emphasized the importance of economic issues in his campaign strategy, particularly in swing states; a recent poll showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 45%, but Trump leads by nine points on economic issues; he plans to renew expiring tax cuts and impose tariffs if elected again.

#Trump #FederalReserve #KamalaHarris #InterestRates #Economy #2024Election #HousingPolicy #Politics #Campaign #SwingStates

https://fortune.com/2024/08/19/trump-fed-president-interest-rate-cut-housing-policy/ 

 August’s stock market fiasco is a 'stark red flag' for what’s to come, veteran hedge funder warns
==========

August 5, 2024, saw global stock market turmoil, attributed to a weak jobs report and changes in central bank policies; Mark Spitznagel, president of Universa Investments, described the event as 'amateur hour' and a 'stark red flag'; he warns of nearing the peak of the largest stock market bubble in history, comparing it to volatility before past crashes in 2000 and 2007; Spitznagel believes the Federal Reserve's prolonged low interest rates have created a fragile economy; he advises patience for retail investors and cautions against betting against the market; he predicts significant market corrections could occur soon.

#StockMarket #Recession #Investing #FederalReserve #MarkSpitznagel #UniversaInvestments #FinancialCrisis #MarketBubble #EconomicIndicators #Volatility

https://fortune.com/2024/08/18/august-stock-market-fiasco-stark-red-flag-mark-spitznagel-black-swan-hedge-funder/ 

 Goldman Sachs trims recession odds to 20% from 25% on strong data
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Goldman Sachs economists have lowered the probability of a US recession in the next year to 20% from 25% based on recent retail sales and jobless claims data. If the August jobs report looks good, the recession probability could be cut to 15%. The economists also believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at their September policy meeting. However, a downside jobs surprise on September 6 could trigger a 50bp move. The US economy has shown resilience, with retail sales increasing and the fewest applications for unemployment benefits since early July.

#GoldmanSachs #Recession #UsEconomy #RetailSales #JoblessClaims #FederalReserve #InterestRates

https://fortune.com/2024/08/17/economic-outlook-goldman-sachs-recession-odds-20-percent-jobless-claims-retail-sales-data/ 

 Top Morgan Stanley strategist doesn't see a major stock market collapse despite recent sell-off
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Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson believes that a major stock market collapse is unlikely despite recent sell-offs. Wilson predicts that the S&P 500 Index will trade in a range between 5,000 to 5,400, with limited upside potential. He attributes this to slowing growth, overly optimistic earnings expectations, and a Federal Reserve that is hesitant to cut interest rates. Wilson advises investors to focus on individual stocks rather than broader indexes, recommending defensive shares and companies with strong fundamentals. He also warns against small-cap stocks and believes the market is in a late-stage cycle. Wilson expects the Fed to loosen policy in September. Despite the recent volatility, Wilson does not believe the market is entering a new bear market.

#MorganStanley #StockMarket #S&p500 #BearMarket #FederalReserve

https://fortune.com/2024/08/14/morgan-stanley-mike-wilson-stock-market/ 

 Surprise dip in U.K. unemployment combined with rising GDP signals strengthening economy—unlike the U.S.
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UK unemployment fell unexpectedly to 4.2% in the three months to June, with employment surging by 97,000; Wage growth slowed in line with expectations; The pound jumped 0.3% to trade above $1.28 on Tuesday; The UK is the best performing currency in the Group of 10 nations; Figures due later this week are likely to show robust economic growth in the UK and the first increase in inflation this year; BOE officials have been focused on wage figures for signs of inflation and the ability of the broader jobs market to drive up pay and prices; A raft of UK economic data this week will set the tone for the BOE in the leadup to its next policy decision on Sept. 19; Investors are betting on the next cut arriving in November; Inflation figures due out on Wednesday are likely to show the first increase in price pressures this year; Some officials have signaled their lingering concerns over strong wage growth; The central bank expects unemployment to hit 4.8% in the coming years; The ONS’s Labour Force Survey, which underpins the unemployment data, has questions about its reliability; The introduction of new “transformed” figures has been delayed until next year.

#Uk #Unemployment #Gdp #Economy #BankOfEngland #InterestRates #WageGrowth #Inflation

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/08/13/surprise-dip-in-u-k-unemployment-combined-with-rising-gdp-signals-strengthening-economy-unlike-u-s/ 

 The much-touted stock market rotation is fizzling as quickly as it started
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Traders pulled $2.6 billion from the iShares Russell 2000 ETF in the five days through Friday, the most in nearly three years; The same stocks that were for weeks finally seeing greater investor interest are now suffering a mass exodus as investors recalibrate their expectations for US economic growth; Short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding on the fund has spiked to its highest level since December; The pullout follows a stretch when traders had been showering money on previously left-for-dead strategies that saw the Russell 2000 rise 10% in July, the biggest monthly gain since the end of last year; The gauge is now off by roughly 8% for August; Investors had gotten excited over small-caps firms, betting that a coming era of lower interest rates, among other factors, would be beneficial; The cohort had previously been shunned for much of the year in favor of the tech behemoths; But big tech took a back seat amid the so-called great rotation, while smaller counterparts started to rally in earnest; Then all of it got repriced once again in recent days after a weaker-than-expected July jobs report reignited fears over the health of the US economy; Amid the turbulence, traders also yanked cash from other corners of the market that tend to benefit during risk-on phases; The iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF saw a $1.5 billion outflow last week, while the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF notched a nearly $1.2 billion withdrawal, the most since October; Larger-cap indexes held up better relative to the small-cap gauge, with the S&P 500 ending the week little changed

#StockMarket #Rotation #SmallcapStocks #Russell2000Etf #UsEconomy

https://fortune.com/2024/08/12/stock-market-rotation-bust-small-cap-stocks-russell-2000-etf-iwm-economy/ 

 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini is actually upbeat about the economy
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Economist Nouriel Roubini, known as 'Dr. Doom,' expressed optimism about the economy during an interview on Bloomberg TV. He dismissed fears of a downturn and stated that markets often misjudge the economy and the actions of the Federal Reserve. Roubini rose to prominence for accurately predicting the Great Financial Crisis and has since warned of various catastrophes. While some data indicates a slowdown, Roubini believes there are elements of strength in the economy. Other experts have also highlighted signs of economic strength. Roubini's views contrast with the consensus on Wall Street last year, which predicted a recession after aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.



https://fortune.com/2024/08/11/dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-upbeat-us-economy-outlook-recession-hard-landing/ 

 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini is actually upbeat about the economy
==========

Economist Nouriel Roubini, known as 'Dr. Doom,' expressed optimism about the economy during an interview on Bloomberg TV. He dismissed fears of a downturn and stated that markets often misjudge the economy and the actions of the Federal Reserve. Roubini rose to prominence for accurately predicting the Great Financial Crisis and has since warned of various catastrophes. While some data indicates a slowdown, Roubini believes there are elements of strength in the economy. Other experts have also highlighted signs of economic strength. Roubini's views contrast with the consensus on Wall Street last year, which predicted a recession after aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.



https://fortune.com/2024/08/11/dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-upbeat-us-economy-outlook-recession-hard-landing/ 

 Kamala Harris vows not to interfere with the Fed—unlike Trump
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Vice President Kamala Harris pledges to respect the Federal Reserve's independence and not interfere with its decisions; Harris plans to roll out elements of her economic agenda in the coming week; Trump has expressed frustration with the lack of executive branch influence over interest rates; Harris aims to address voter frustration with President Joe Biden's handling of the economy; Polls show Harris has erased Trump's polling lead; Harris held a rally in Arizona and is on a campaign swing with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz;

#KamalaHarris #FederalReserve #DonaldTrump #Economy #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy

https://fortune.com/2024/08/10/kamala-harris-federal-reserve-independent-monetary-policy-interference-donald-trump/ 

 Even an uptick in inflation is unlikely to spoil a Fed rate cut
==========

US inflation is expected to have risen 0.2% in July, but not enough to prevent a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next month; Fed officials are confident that they can lower borrowing costs while focusing on the labor market; The July jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring and an increase in the unemployment rate, contributing to a global stock market selloff; The consumer price index is expected to show a slight pickup in inflation due to higher shipping costs for goods; The long-awaited slowdown in shelter costs is expected to continue; Other economic data to be released include retail sales, inflation expectations, small business sentiment, industrial production, and new home construction; Central banks in New Zealand, Norway, and the Philippines are expected to make decisions on interest rates; In Europe, the UK will release data on wages, inflation, production, and retail numbers; The euro zone will have a relatively quiet week with releases on investor confidence, industrial production, and GDP; In South America, Argentina will report inflation data and budget balance; Brazil, Colombia, and Chile will release GDP-proxy data; In Africa, Zambia is expected to raise rates to curb inflation; Nigeria's inflation is expected to ease for the first time in 19 months; Israel's inflation is likely to quicken due to the war in Gaza; Uruguay is expected to keep its key rate unchanged; Brazil, Peru, and Colombia will report June GDP-proxy data.

#UsInflation #FederalReserve #InterestrateCut #LaborMarket #JobsReport #ConsumerPriceIndex #ShippingCosts #ShelterCosts #RetailSales #InflationExpectations #SmallBusinessSentiment #IndustrialProduction #NewHomeConstruction #CentralBanks #Europe #Uk #EuroZone #SouthAmerica #Africa #Nigeria #Israel #Uruguay #Brazil #Peru #Colombia

https://fortune.com/2024/08/10/fed-rate-cut-outlook-uptick-inflation-consumer-price-index-economic-data-preview/ 

 Stocks jump as the S&P 500 ends a wild week almost exactly where it started
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The S&P 500 rose 0.5% on Friday, bringing its weekly loss down to 0.1%. Japanese stocks fell to their worst loss since the Black Monday crash of 1987, but U.S. stocks rebounded later in the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% and the Nasdaq composite added 0.5%. Expedia Group reported stronger-than-expected profits, leading to a 10% jump in its stock. Treasury yields eased ahead of upcoming reports on the economy. The S&P 500 is now within 6% of its all-time high. Worries remain about the strength of the U.S. economy and upcoming reports on inflation and economic strength. Reports next week will provide updates on retail spending, unemployment benefits, and inflation. Increased skepticism about Wall Street's rush into artificial intelligence technology has also impacted the market. The share of Americans living in the West has fallen for the first time in 100 years. Stellantis plans to cut up to 2,450 jobs at a Detroit-area plant. Raymond James analyst reiterates Global Payments Outperform rating and $144 price target after Q2 earnings beat. Larry Summers warns against presidential influence over Fed policy. Warren Buffett's Apple stock dump will force massive buying as funds rebalance. The summer COVID surge has arrived. Tim Walz's net worth is less than the average American's. Fed president throws doubt onto September rate cut. Elon Musk's backing of Donald Trump is hurting Tesla's EV business in Europe. Florida HBCU's record $237 million donation is worthless. Prominent Georgia family faces a legal battle after trying to displace residents from their homes.

#S&p500 #Stocks #JapaneseStocks #DowJonesIndustrialAverage #Nasdaq #ExpediaGroup #TreasuryYields #UsEconomy #Inflation #RetailSpending #UnemploymentBenefits #ArtificialIntelligenceTechnology #WestCoast #Stellantis #RaymondJames #GlobalPayments #LarrySummers #WarrenBuffett #AppleStock #CovidSurge #TimWalz #FederalReserve #ElonMusk #DonaldTrump #Tesla #FloridaHbcu #Georgia

https://fortune.com/2024/08/09/stock-market-today-sp500-dow-jones-industrial-average-nasdaq-weekly-losses/ 

 Donald Trump is bad news for Europe
==========

Eurogroup chief Paschal Donohoe warns that a second Donald Trump presidency would be bad for Europe and urges the region to reduce its reliance on the US; Donohoe emphasizes the need for Europe to deepen its economic autonomy and strengthen its economy to deal with potential changes in US trade policies; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has also warned of the need for Europe to prepare for harsh decisions in the event of Trump's re-election; Donohoe expresses confidence in the ability of indebted countries like France to curb deficits; He hopes the EU's new capital markets commissioner will outline a strengthened action plan on capital markets union in the early part of next year.

#DonaldTrump #Europe #Eu #PaschalDonohoe #Trade #Economy #Tariffs #Us #CapitalMarketsUnion #Elections #France

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/08/08/donald-trump-is-bad-news-for-europe-the-region-needs-to-learn-to-be-less-reliant-on-the-u-s-if-he-became-president-europe-minister-paschal-donohoe/ 

 Top economist: More people are looking for a job, but not because they were laid off
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The recent rise in unemployment in the US is due to an immigration surge, not widespread job cuts, according to Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok. The unemployment rate has increased to 4.3% because there are more workers, not fewer jobs. Layoffs have been relatively flat for the year, with June having the lowest number of layoffs. The rise in unemployment is a result of a rise in labor supply due to rising immigration. In 2022, net immigration to the US was 2.6 million people, and in 2023, it jumped to 3.3 million. The uptick in immigration has helped cool an overheated labor market but has also reduced wage growth. The recent round of employment data triggered the Sahm rule, indicating the start of a recession, but economists argue that the rule was designed for a decline in labor demand, not a rise in immigration. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell recommends looking at the totality of the data, which still shows a solid economy. However, there are some changes in consumer behavior, such as wobbly retail spending and rising credit card delinquencies, that indicate tougher economic times could be coming.

#Economy #Recession #Unemployment #Immigration #Jobs

https://fortune.com/2024/08/07/economy-recession-unemployment-inflation-federal-reserve-apollo-immigration-jobs/ 

 Robinhood and Nvidia lead market plunge amid economic jitters
==========

U.S. equities plunged on Monday as investors braced for days of volatility amid rising concerns over a slowing US economy and overheated gains in the technology sector. The S&P 500 Index sank 3%, its biggest one-day drop since September 2022, and the tech-tracking Nasdaq 100 Index slid by a similar amount. Megacap tech high-fliers like Nvidia Corp. and Apple Inc. bore the brunt of the losses. Concerns over the health of the U.S. economy took center stage after data showed rising unemployment levels in July. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway slashed its stake in Apple by almost 50% in the second quarter. Nvidia's highly anticipated Blackwell chips may be delayed due to design flaws, potentially impacting big tech firms from Meta to Microsoft. Turbulence in markets in Japan is also rippling across global markets. European stocks plunged amid a deepening global rout in equities and a rotation away from technology shares. Asian currencies gained against the dollar, buoyed by rising dovish wagers for the Federal Reserve and falling Treasury yields.

#MarketPlunge #EconomicJitters #TechnologySector #S&p500 #Nasdaq100 #Nvidia #Apple #UnemploymentLevels #BerkshireHathaway #BlackwellChips #Japan #EuropeanStocks #AsianCurrencies #FederalReserve

https://fortune.com/2024/08/05/robinhood-nvidia-tech-giants-led-market-plunge-amid-economic-jitters/ 

 Today's financial panic looks like the stock crash in 1987—when the economy avoided a recession, market veteran says
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Longtime market and economy watcher Ed Yardeni compares the current global equities selloff to the 1987 crash, but believes the economy will avoid a recession. Yardeni points to the internal dynamics of the market, including the unwinding of carry trades and bets on big US tech companies, as reasons for the current plunge in equities. He expects central banks to respond to the financial panic and provide liquidity, potentially through a 50 basis-point rate cut. Yardeni does not anticipate a recession, as he believes the labor market is still in good shape and the US economy is still growing.

#StockMarket #FinancialPanic #Recession #Equities #CarryTrade #CentralBanks #RateCut

https://fortune.com/2024/08/05/stock-market-crash-1987-recession-outlook-financial-panic-federal-reserve-rate-cuts-liquidity/ 

 Despite the stock crash, the AI-fueled bubble will soon regain momentum, economist says
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Capital Economics predicts that the AI-fueled bubble will continue to lead the stock market higher despite the recent stock crash; The weak July jobs report and the deterioration in the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index caused the stock market to suffer; Capital Economics sees the Federal Reserve cutting rates at each meeting from September until next July; Recent earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Google indicate significant spending on AI infrastructure, land, and chips; Other economists, such as Claudia Sahm, are not concerned about a recession and believe that the US economy will not hinder the AI-fueled bubble from picking up steam again soon.

#StockMarket #Ai #Recession #FederalReserve #Economy

https://fortune.com/2024/08/04/stock-market-crash-economic-outlook-recession-ai-fueled-bubble-fed-rate-cuts/ 

 After last week's violent selloff, one stock market rotation ended and another may have begun
==========

The stock market selloff triggered by fears that the Federal Reserve missed its chance to help the US economy ended one rotation trade and may have started another. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index tumbled into a correction and the S&P 500 Index lost 3.2% in two days. However, utilities and real estate companies were the best performers in the S&P 500 for the week. Investors are pouring money into real estate and utility sector US exchange-traded funds. This is the second stock market rotation investors have faced recently. The first rotation trade saw demand for small-capitalization companies taking off, but that ended when the valuation spread between small caps and large caps widened. Now, with rate cuts seemingly on the way and Treasury yields plunging, investors are piling into dividend-paying, lower volatility stocks. The stock market may face more pain as August and September are historically the worst two months for US stock market returns. Volatility is surging, with the Cboe Volatility Index reaching its highest level since March 2023. Traders are finding it difficult to predict the market due to the extreme degree that risk assets have front-run the Fed's first rate cut. Investors are not paying up to hedge for a possible selloff. Contracts protecting against a 10% decline in the largest ETF tracking the S&P 500 currently cost just 1.9 times more than options that profit from a 10% rally.

#StockMarket #RotationTrade #UsEconomy #FederalReserve #S&p500 #Nasdaq100Index #Utilities #RealEstate #DividendpayingStocks #RateCuts #TreasuryYields #SmallcapCompanies #LargecapCompanies #Volatility #RiskAssets #Hedging

https://fortune.com/2024/08/04/stock-market-crash-new-rotation-trade-economic-outlook-recession-utilities/ 

 Germany remains the eurozone's troubled economic child and sets back Europe, while the U.S. continues to lead the way
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Germany's economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, while the eurozone's GDP rose by 0.3%; The U.S. economy grew by 0.7% in the second quarter; Higher interest rates in Europe have brought inflation down but have also hindered construction activity and house prices; European consumers are saving at record levels, while U.S. consumers are spending freely; Europe's growth is held back by factors such as higher taxation, burdensome regulation, and lack of investment in productive capital; Germany faces issues with complicated permissions processes, lack of skilled labor, and lagging infrastructure investment; European governments are trimming deficits and shifting away from pandemic support measures; Europe's growth is also affected by longer-term factors such as higher taxation and burdensome regulation; Europe needs to raise productivity and increase investment to catch up with the U.S.; European consumers' high level of precautionary savings is leading to low intentions for major purchases; Europe's growth is also hindered by factors such as higher taxation and burdensome regulation; Europe's growth is also hindered by factors such as higher taxation and burdensome regulation

#Germany #Eurozone #Us #Economy #Gdp #Inflation #InterestRates #ConstructionActivity #HousePrices #ConsumerSpending #BudgetDeficits #Productivity #Investment

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/07/30/germany-remains-eurozone-troubled-economic-child-sets-back-europe-while-u-s-continues-to-lead-the-way/ 

 Wall Street is worrying about the 'Sahm Rule' that predicts recessions—but its creator is not, yet
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Former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm cautions against prematurely forecasting a recession using the Sahm Rule, which predicts a recession when the unemployment rate's three-month moving average exceeds the lowest three-month moving average of the past year by half a percentage point or more; Sahm argues that the risk of recession has risen due to the exodus of workers known as the Great Resignation, but other indicators such as consumer spending and non-farm payrolls are inconsistent with a broad-based weakening in activity; Sahm believes that the upward pressure on the U.S. labor market exerted by rising numbers of immigrants is artificially inflating the official unemployment rate, and official revisions to past data can also affect the reading; Sahm states that a recession is not imminent, but the risks have risen; U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to cut interest rates to avoid a recession.

#SahmRule #Recession #Unemployment #FederalReserve #ClaudiaSahm #LaborMarket #Immigration #InterestRates

https://fortune.com/2024/07/29/sahm-rule-recession-unemployment/ 

 Tech stocks are 'one bad payroll away' from losing their dominance, BofA says
==========

Bank of America Corp.'s Michael Hartnett warns that the rally in US tech stocks is at risk of fading if the US economy continues to cool; $2.6 trillion has been erased from the market capitalization of firms in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index since July 10; Signs of an economic slowdown could fuel a rotation into stocks that have lagged behind tech mega-caps; Recent data suggests the global economy is 'ill'; A bad payroll report could lead to big tech stocks losing their dominance; The upward trajectory of tech stocks has been derailed as investors flock into small caps on bets that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting rates soon; BofA's custom bull-and-bear indicator is at its highest level in over three years; A reading above 8 would flash a contrarian sell signal; Equity bulls believe that a correction is 'healthy' as the market hasn't fallen below critical levels; The Nasdaq 100 has dropped about 9% since July 10, but it's still up more than 30% since October 2023.

#TechStocks #MarketOutlook #UsEconomy #Nasdaq #BankOfAmerica

https://fortune.com/2024/07/26/tech-stocks-market-outlook-jobs-payroll-report-economy-forecast-nasdaq-losses/ 

 Private equity is devouring the economy as boomer entrepreneurs exit—but a new approach to employee ownership can change that
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Private equity roll-up mergers are growing rapidly as baby boomer entrepreneurs seek to retire; Private equity companies are acquiring private companies in fragmented industries with insufficient succession planning; Private equity companies lack expertise in specific industries and running a company; A civil engineering company in Wisconsin made over 20 acquisitions without private equity involvement by implementing an Employee Stock Ownership Program (ESOP) and fostering common stock ownership among employees; The valuation of the civil engineering company surged more than sixfold in the last five years; The alternative approach to private equity roll-ups is becoming known as 'rewarding roll-ups'; Broad awareness and adoption of this approach are limited but growing quickly

#PrivateEquity #EmployeeOwnership #BusinessSuccessionPlanning #Esop #RewardingRollups

https://fortune.com/2024/07/24/private-equity-devouring-economy-boomer-entrepreneurs-exit-employee-ownership-labor-finance-leadership/ 

 Nvidia is reportedly making another China-focused AI chip as U.S. export controls hit its business in the world’s second largest economy
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Nvidia is working on a version of its Blackwell series AI chip for the China market in collaboration with Inspur, one of its major distributors in China. The U.S. has controlled sales of Nvidia's AI chips to China since October 2022. Nvidia's data center revenue in China has significantly declined since Washington expanded chip controls in October 2023. However, Nvidia is expected to sell over a million of its H20 chips, the most advanced chip available in China, generating $12 billion in sales this year. The U.S. is pressuring the Netherlands and Japan to further restrict Chinese access to chipmaking equipment. Nvidia's shares rose 1.5% in pre-market trading on Monday.

#Nvidia #AiChip #China #UsExportControls #Inspur #BlackwellSeries #DataCenterRevenue #H20Chips

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/07/22/nvidia-working-on-new-china-focused-blackwell-ai-chip-us-export-controls/ 

 Bill Ackman warns political chaos around Biden is an invitation for rivals to exploit U.S. weakness
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Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital, criticizes President Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race and warns of potential exploitation by rivals; President Biden announced his withdrawal and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor on his personal X profile; Ackman criticizes the decision to post the announcement on a social media site instead of traditional media channels; Ackman suggests that rival world powers could take advantage of the political upheaval in the U.S.; Geopolitical tensions, including the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, are a concern for Wall Street veterans; Tensions around Taiwan have been increasing, with former President Donald Trump making statements about the territory; Taiwan is seen as politically distinct from China, but China views it as part of its territory; President Biden has not yet addressed the nation; Other articles related to Biden's withdrawal and its impact on the Democratic Party and world leaders' reactions.

#BillAckman #PresidentBiden #KamalaHarris #China #Taiwan #GeopoliticalTensions #DemocraticParty #WorldLeaders

https://fortune.com/2024/07/22/bill-ackman-president-biden-election-china-taiwan/ 

 VP Kamala Harris trends on Chinese social media as users think the U.S. election chaos helps Donald Trump
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U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is trending on Chinese social media as users believe her bid for the Democratic presidential ticket will help Donald Trump win the election; Chinese citizens are trying to understand the implications of the switch-up for the world's No. 2 economy; An online poll of 12,000 Weibo users found that nearly 80% believe Trump will beat Harris in the November race; Images of a bloodied Trump waving his fist after being shot have boosted his popularity in China; State media outlets highlight that Harris would be the first American president with Asian descent if she wins, but few reports mention the policy implications for China; Experts believe Harris won't likely develop a targeted strategy on China in the short term;

#KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump #UsElection #China #SocialMedia

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/07/22/kamala-harris-trending-china-social-media-joe-biden-exit-donald-trump-us-presidential-election/ 

 The Supreme Court's 'Chevron' ruling is an existential threat to the 'American economic miracle' and will make the U.S. more like Europe, Lazard chair says
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The Supreme Court's decision to overturn the Chevron ruling will harm innovation and threaten U.S. economic vitality; Lazard's Kenneth Jacobs argues that it is anti-business and will lead to the Balkanization of the U.S. economy; Abandoning the Chevron doctrine will result in a patchwork of state-by-state rules, hindering innovation and economic development; Some industry groups argue that regulator over-reach has made doing business burdensome and unpredictable; Financial regulators are likely to be among the hardest hit by the Supreme Court's decision.

#SupremeCourt #ChevronRuling #UsEconomy #Lazard #KennethJacobs #Regulation #Innovation #EconomicDevelopment #StatebystateRules #FinancialRegulators

https://fortune.com/2024/07/20/supreme-court-chevron-ruling-existential-threat-american-economic-miracle-innovation-state-rulemaking/ 

 America's largest economy is falling out of love with Tesla—and it's only going to get worse
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Tesla sales in California dropped 24.1% in the second quarter; Purchases dipped 7.8% in the first quarter of 2024 and 9.8% in the final quarter of last year; Year-to-date, Tesla sales in California are down 17% compared to last year; Toyota BEV registrations have soared 108.1% so far this year, while Hyundai and Ford BEV registrations rose 65.7% and 26.4%, respectively; About 46.9% of registered voters in California are Democrats, while 23.9% of registered voters are Republicans; Tesla is still the car of choice in California; California’s BEV market share is 21.4%, while the overall U.S. market share of BEVs is 7.5%

#Tesla #California #ElectricVehicles #Toyota #Hyundai #Ford

https://fortune.com/2024/07/19/tesla-sales-falling-california-toyota-hyundai-ford-rising/ 

 Asia has a Trump trade too: Investors think India will win, China will lose from the former president’s ‘America First’ policy
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Stock traders in Asia are preparing for a potential second term for former US President Donald Trump, which could have winners and losers in the region. Trump's 'America first' policies would negatively impact sectors in Asia such as agriculture, farm equipment, textiles, and weapons production. China is seen as a clear loser due to higher tariffs and confrontational rhetoric. Taiwan and South Korea, reliant on export revenues from tech sectors, are also expected to face a downturn. India is seen as a potential beneficiary. Southeast Asian economies, less tied to exports, may be able to deflect fallout from a change in the White House. Investors believe India has a better relationship with the US and would be less affected. Japan's risks are more balanced, and it may have an opportunity to cement its semiconductor sector renaissance. Vietnam, Taiwan, and Malaysia are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries in Asia. Southeast Asia, including Thailand, may be in a good position due to the impact on China. Tech-related sectors in Asia may be more affected, while ASEAN countries may be more resilient. China's GDP growth has slowed to 4.7% due to insufficient domestic demand. Uniqlo's parent company's shares dropped as it warns of a 'turning point' in its China strategy. Chinese billionaire convicted of defrauding followers to fund a lavish lifestyle. Thailand is implementing a $14 billion program to stimulate its economy. Anti-tourist backlash in Europe causes cruise ships to change course. Former American Express CEO says business leaders are scared to tell Trump what they really think. Philadelphia experiences record snowfall in July. Jamie Dimon says the US has a problem with national debt. JD Vance, Trump's new VP pick, brands China the 'biggest threat' to the US. The Trump trade is expected to gain momentum on Wall Street. Goldman Sachs CEO speaks on division and distrust in America. BYD expands into Southeast Asia with its first EV plant in Thailand.

#TrumpTrade #Asia #India #China #Taiwan #SouthKorea #SoutheastAsia #Export #Economy #Tariffs #TechSector #GdpGrowth #Uniqlo #Billionaire #Thailand #AntitouristBacklash #AmericanExpress #NationalDebt #JdVance #WallStreet #GoldmanSachs #Byd

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/07/18/asia-trump-trade-investors-india-china-lose-america-first-policy/ 

 Asia has a Trump trade too: Investors think India will win, China will lose from the former president’s ‘America First’ policy
==========

Stock traders in Asia are preparing for a potential second term for former US President Donald Trump, which could have winners and losers in the region. Trump's 'America first' policies would negatively impact sectors in Asia such as agriculture, farm equipment, textiles, and weapons production. China is seen as a clear loser due to higher tariffs and confrontational rhetoric. Taiwan and South Korea, reliant on export revenues from tech sectors, are also expected to face a downturn. India is seen as a potential beneficiary. Southeast Asian economies, less tied to exports, may be able to deflect fallout from a change in the White House. Investors believe India has a better relationship with the US and would be less affected. Japan's risks are more balanced, and it may have an opportunity to cement its semiconductor sector renaissance. Vietnam, Taiwan, and Malaysia are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries in Asia. Southeast Asia, including Thailand, may be in a good position due to the impact on China. Tech-related sectors in Asia may be more affected, while ASEAN countries may be more resilient. China's GDP growth has slowed to 4.7% due to insufficient domestic demand. Uniqlo's parent company's shares dropped as it warns of a 'turning point' in its China strategy. Chinese billionaire convicted of defrauding followers to fund a lavish lifestyle. Thailand is implementing a $14 billion program to stimulate its economy. Anti-tourist backlash in Europe causes cruise ships to change course. Former American Express CEO says business leaders are scared to tell Trump what they really think. Philadelphia experiences record snowfall in July. Jamie Dimon says the US has a problem with national debt. JD Vance, Trump's new VP pick, brands China the 'biggest threat' to the US. The Trump trade is expected to gain momentum on Wall Street. Goldman Sachs CEO speaks on division and distrust in America. BYD expands into Southeast Asia with its first EV plant in Thailand.

#TrumpTrade #Asia #India #China #Taiwan #SouthKorea #SoutheastAsia #Export #Economy #Tariffs #TechSector #GdpGrowth #Uniqlo #Billionaire #Thailand #AntitouristBacklash #AmericanExpress #NationalDebt #JdVance #WallStreet #GoldmanSachs #Byd

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/07/18/asia-trump-trade-investors-india-china-lose-america-first-policy/ 

 Larry Fink says America's $35 trillion national debt will be a 'big burden on the backs of our children' unless the private sector is given room to grow
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Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warns that America's national debt of $35 trillion will burden future generations unless the private sector is allowed to grow. Fink joins other CEOs such as Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan and Brian Moynihan of Bank of America in expressing concerns about the country's spending and ability to service its debt. The main concern is the debt-to-GDP ratio, which is projected to rise from 99% to 122% by 2034. Fink advocates for economic growth to offset the debt rather than curbing spending. He emphasizes the need for unfettered businesses and private sector growth to create jobs and opportunities.

#LarryFink #NationalDebt #PrivateSector #EconomicGrowth #DebttogdpRatio

https://fortune.com/2024/07/16/larry-fink-national-debt-burden-future-generations/ 

 Republican National Convention focuses on Trump’s economic plans
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The Republican National Convention focused on Trump's economic plans, including tariffs, tax cuts, and no taxes on tips. However, few details were provided. Trump's campaign is betting that voters care more about attitude than policy specifics. Trump wants tariffs on trade partners, no taxes on tips, and a lower corporate tax rate. The platform also promises to defeat inflation, bring down prices, and increase oil, natural gas, and coal production. Democrats and economists argue that Trump's ideas would cause inflation, harm the middle class, and increase the national debt. Trump's campaign declined to answer economic questions and instead directed to video clips of him. In contrast, Biden has an exhaustive 188-page budget proposal. Trump's plans have bipartisan backing on banning taxes on tips and cutting regulations. However, companies generally dislike tariffs as they can raise costs for consumers. Trump's tariff plans could worsen inflation. The Republican National Convention also discussed illegal immigration and scrapping Biden's policies on electric vehicles and renewable energy. Deporting 1.3 million workers could shrink the U.S. economy by 2.1%. Trump's second term would focus on the needs of business to drive economic growth. Trump's tariff policies could make it more expensive to bring in raw materials and raise prices for consumers. The Republican National Convention focused on Trump's economic plans, but offered few details.

#RepublicanNationalConvention #Trump #EconomicPlans #Tariffs #TaxCuts #Tips #Details #Attitude #CorporateTaxRate #Inflation #Oil #NaturalGas #Coal #IllegalImmigration #ElectricVehicles #RenewableEnergy #Deportation #Economists #Biden #BudgetProposal #Regulations #Bipartisan #Tariffs #Inflation #RawMaterials #Prices

https://fortune.com/2024/07/16/rnc-trump-economic-plans-tariffs-tax-cuts-no-taxes-tips-few-details/