AI could kill creative jobs that ‘shouldn't have been there in the first place,’ OpenAI’s CTO says
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Mira Murati, the chief technology officer of OpenAI, warns that AI could cause job displacement in the creative industry. She questions whether those jobs really needed to exist. The comment was made amid discussion about the entertainment industry, which has seen backlash from workers. Freelancers have already experienced a drop in job opportunities due to AI. Murati believes that AI tools can be used to enhance creativity and expand intelligence. While job displacement is likely, new work will also be created. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has also acknowledged job displacement due to AI. Other AI-focused executives have warned about the impact of AI on the job market and the need for reskilling.

#Ai #JobDisplacement #CreativeIndustry #Openai #MiraMurati

https://fortune.com/2024/06/24/ai-creative-industry-jobs-losses-openai-cto-mira-murati-skill-displacement/


The national debt is over $34 trillion. It’s time to tell the truth about the U.S. government’s finances
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The national debt in the U.S. has reached over $34 trillion, exceeding the country's GDP by about $6 trillion. The federal deficit in fiscal year 2023 was $1.7 trillion and is expected to approach $2 trillion by the end of fiscal 2024. The consequences of this debt include crowding out private investment, a decrease in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, and a significant amount of interest payments on the national debt. The U.S. government is projected to pay close to $900 billion in interest payments this year alone, and debt service is expected to increase to $5.3 trillion by 2054. The growth of the U.S. government's debt has been a long-term trend since the mid-1970s, with both parties contributing to the increase in federal spending. Without significant spending cuts and fiscal discipline, the current trajectory of federal finances will lead to a dire situation. The author suggests cutting defense, education, justice, and homeland security budgets, as well as privatizing the Social Security program, to address the issue.

#NationalDebt #UsGovernment #Finances #FederalDeficit #DebtService #FiscalDiscipline #SpendingCuts #FederalSpending

https://fortune.com/2024/06/24/national-debt-34-trillion-america-government-finances/


Mothers are back at work. Here’s why we shouldn’t be too quick to celebrate
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Mothers' return to the workforce is good news for the economy, but it doesn't protect their families from precarity. The article tells the story of a mother named Akari who returned to work after her fiancé died suddenly. She had to find a part-time job in retail that paid less than $10 an hour and added two more jobs to make ends meet. Despite working three jobs, she is worse off financially than when she was on welfare because she now makes just a bit too much to qualify for programs like food stamps and subsidized housing and childcare. The article argues that the lack of a sturdy social safety net forces women, especially mothers, into low-wage, no-benefit jobs. It calls for investing in a social safety net that offers universal paid family leave and sick leave, universal childcare and healthcare, decent welfare benefits without punitive work requirements, subsidies for families with dependents, and a robust minimum wage to support mothers in the workforce.

#Mothers #Workforce #Economy #Precarity #SocialSafetyNet #LowwageJobs

https://fortune.com/2024/06/21/mothers-back-work-celebrate-labor-jobs-women-economy/


Nvidia, now the most valuable company on Wall Street, is buoying indexes to record levels despite weaknesses in the economy
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Nvidia has become the most valuable company on Wall Street, surpassing Microsoft, with a total market value of over $3.3 trillion. The chip company's rise has helped keep U.S. indexes at record levels despite weaknesses in the economy. Nvidia's chips are powering the move into artificial intelligence (AI), which is expected to drive explosive growth in productivity and profits. The stock market's frenzy around AI technology has propelled Nvidia's stock up 181.5% this year. Despite some weakness in the U.S. economy, AI stocks like Nvidia have helped prop up the stock market. However, market watchers are concerned that the market is being carried by a handful of companies rather than a large number. The hope on Wall Street is for a slowdown in the U.S. economy's growth to keep inflationary pressures in check and potentially lead to a cut in the Federal Reserve's main interest rate. Nvidia's rise comes as other companies in various sectors, such as Winnebago Industries and Accenture, report weaker-than-expected profit and revenue. Treasury yields ticked higher following mixed reports on the economy, and some traders on Wall Street are expecting two or more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. The stock market's performance has been strong despite weaknesses in the U.S. economy, particularly in housing and manufacturing.

#Nvidia #WallStreet #StockMarket #Ai #Economy

https://fortune.com/2024/06/20/nvidia-most-valuable-company-on-wall-street-buoying-indexes-to-record/


‘Sometimes, the facts don’t matter’: Attacks on DEI are an anti-capitalist war on American prosperity
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Attacks on DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion) are seen as an anti-capitalist war on American prosperity. DEI is a capitalist tool to increase income and wealth through fairness, resulting in increased employee engagement, innovation, productivity, and profitability. However, DEI has been heavily criticized, with some arguing that non-Black people have benefitted more from DEI programs than Black people. The article highlights the power of words and the emotional meaning they carry. The attackers of DEI have fallen prey to oppression psychology, using tactics to protect superiority and maintain race-based barriers to opportunity. The article argues that race-based barriers have cost the U.S. economy over $50 trillion since 1990 and tearing them down can generate $5 trillion in just a few years. The author calls for a shift from demonizing DEI to fundamental fairness for all of humanity, emphasizing that fairness is a matter of wealth and national security. Corporate America is urged to demonstrate leadership and fiduciary duty by embracing DEI as a framework to improve business engagement, productivity, profitability, and American economic prosperity.

#Dei #Diversity #Equity #Inclusion #Capitalism #AmericanProsperity

https://fortune.com/2024/06/19/facts-matter-attacks-on-dei-anti-capitalist-war-american-prosperity/


OneUnited Bank CEO: Ending slavery is the best economic decision America ever made
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Kevin Cohee, the chairman and CEO of OneUnited Bank, argues that ending slavery was the best economic decision America ever made. He explains that the decision to end slavery had a profound impact on making America the strongest country in the world, both socially and economically. From a social perspective, ending slavery allowed America to uphold its core values of equality and become a role model for democracy. From an economic perspective, emancipation generated economic gains equivalent to up to 35% of the U.S. GDP, making it one of the most important economic events in American history. The economic benefits of emancipation include increased workforce participation, growth of human capital, contributions to the economy through entrepreneurship, and expanding the consumer market. Cohee emphasizes the importance of overcoming economic disadvantages and promoting financial literacy to realize the full economic benefits of ending slavery. He also highlights the significance of Juneteenth as a national holiday, symbolizing the power of information in achieving true freedom. Cohee suggests that technology, particularly artificial intelligence, can empower people to overcome financial illiteracy and unlock the economic potential of emancipation. He calls for massive Juneteenth celebrations to bring Americans together and promote a better America and a better world.

#Slavery #EconomicDecision #Juneteenth #Emancipation #Equality #EconomicGrowth #FinancialLiteracy #ArtificialIntelligence

https://fortune.com/2024/06/19/oneunited-bank-ceo-ending-slavery-economic-decision-america-juneteenth/


Weak yen pushes Japan's exports to grow at fastest rate since Nov. 2022
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Japan's exports grew by 13.5% in May, the fastest rate since November 2022. The trade deficit totaled 1.22 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), down nearly 12% from a year earlier. Imports grew 9.5% to nearly 9.5 trillion yen ($60 billion). Exports totaled 8.3 trillion yen ($53 billion) and grew at the fastest rate since November 2022. Shipments to the United States were up nearly 24% and those to the rest of Asia rose more than 13%. Trade with Europe mostly fell. The value of Japan's imports tends to grow when the Japanese yen loses value against the U.S. dollar and other major currencies. Japan is a resource-poor nation that imports almost all its oil, and higher imports of oil, gas, and other fuels are a big factor behind the deficit in May. Rising prices overall inflated the value of both exports and imports. Trade with China has been reviving, and shipments of machinery, manufacturing components, and vehicles showed strong growth. The weak yen's impact on inflation was debated by the Bank of Japan's decision makers. The fear for Japan is deflation, and the central bank has been trying to set off a gradual rise in prices.

#Japan #Exports #TradeDeficit #Imports #WeakYen #Us #Asia #Europe #China #Inflation #Deflation #BankOfJapan

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/06/19/japan-exports-may-grew-fastest-rate-since-november-2022-weak-yen/


FOMO still ‘ruling the market’ says Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel, as investors hold out for an elusive rate cut to boost prospects
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Jeremy Siegel, Professor of Finance at the Wharton School, remains hopeful that pockets of activity in the U.S. economy will keep it on the path away from recession. While jobless claims hit a 10-month high at 242,000, inflation remained unexpectedly unchanged in May. The market is boosted by fear of missing out (FOMO), particularly in AI-related stocks like NVIDIA. Despite concerns of a bubble, investors remain bullish on AI. Siegel believes a further boost will come when the Fed begins cutting rates. Wall Street could be holding out until the end of the year for a rate cut.

#JeremySiegel #WhartonSchool #WallStreet #Fomo #Ai #Nvidia #FederalReserve #RateCut

https://fortune.com/2024/06/18/fomo-artificial-intelligence-ruling-market-wharton-jeremy-siegel/


U.S. debt could threaten the economic growth that's needed to keep the burden sustainable, former IMF official says
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Former IMF official warns that U.S. debt could threaten economic growth and make the burden unsustainable. Debt held by the public is already at about 100% of GDP and is projected to climb to 116% in 2034, 139% in 2044, and 166% in 2054. While an advanced economy like the U.S. can manage its debt, an institutional breakdown remains a threat. Meeting interest obligations as the debt ratio rises could require the federal government to cut discretionary spending, negatively impacting economic growth. The U.S. must keep up with interest payments and maturing Treasury bonds, with the cost of servicing all that debt expected to exceed defense spending this year. The spike in bond yields has increased interest costs. The U.S. will either borrow more to pay up and add to its debt burden or cut spending on initiatives like the Biden administration's CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, which could have substantial negative growth effects. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman downplayed concerns about U.S. debt, suggesting that hiking taxes or reducing spending by 2.1% of GDP could stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio.

#UsDebt #EconomicGrowth #Sustainability #Imf #CongressionalBudgetOffice #BarryEichengreen #TreasurySecretaryJanetYellen #PaulKrugman #DebttogdpRatio

https://fortune.com/2024/06/15/us-debt-crisis-interest-expense-economic-growth-deficit-sustainability-gdp-ratio/


Donald Trump aims to entice CEOs with lucrative tax cuts while Biden wants to win them over by vowing to maintain stability
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Former President Donald Trump wants to further cut the corporate tax rate, while President Joe Biden's chief of staff emphasized the importance of global alliances to CEOs. Trump expressed his desire to cut the corporate tax rate to 20%, focusing on taxes, inflation, and the need for more oil production. Biden's chief of staff highlighted America's global reputation and independent institutions as fostering trust worldwide. The Business Roundtable, representing over 200 CEOs, is campaigning to preserve the tax breaks for businesses that Trump signed into law in 2017. Biden aims to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% and introduce higher taxes on the wealthy. The 2017 tax cuts are set to expire after 2025, leading to a showdown between Democrats and Republicans on how to rewrite the tax code. Business leaders argue that lower taxes make them more competitive globally and enable them to hire more workers and invest in new technologies. Biden's budget proposal would raise corporate taxes by nearly $2.2 trillion over 10 years, with more than half of the revenue coming from resetting the corporate tax rate at 28%. Trump has argued that higher corporate taxes would lead to the destruction of jobs and the country.

https://fortune.com/2024/06/13/donald-trump-aims-to-entice-ceos-biden-stability/


'The world might become stuck in the slow lane'—World Bank warns of the consequences of sustaining elevated interest rates
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The World Bank has upgraded its outlook for the global economy, estimating that it will expand 2.6% this year, with the United States accounting for 80% of the growth. However, the bank warns that global growth remains sluggish, with the poorest countries struggling under heavy debts and high interest rates. The World Bank cautions against protectionism and increased trade barriers, which endanger prosperity worldwide. The bank also warns that sustaining elevated interest rates for a longer period can lead to slower growth and urges avoiding lower-for-longer economic growth. Many countries, including China, Latin America, and sub-Saharan Africa, are already experiencing economic strain. The World Bank expects emerging market and developing countries to collectively grow 4% this year. The bank also expresses concerns about faltering trade and the need for dialogue and common ground to solve trade problems instead of erecting barriers.

#WorldBank #GlobalEconomy #InterestRates #EconomicGrowth #TradeBarriers

https://fortune.com/2024/06/11/interest-rates-world-bank-global-growth-us-economy-ayhan-kose/


Robinhood buys crypto exchange Bitstamp in surprise $200 million deal
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Robinhood has acquired Bitstamp, one of the world's oldest cryptocurrency exchanges, in an all-cash deal worth around $200 million. The acquisition is expected to close in the first half of 2025 and will expand Robinhood's presence in overseas markets. Bitstamp, launched in Slovenia in 2011 and now based in Luxembourg and the U.K., ranks 16th in trading volume among cryptocurrency exchanges. The acquisition will help Robinhood develop its institutional business and increase its crypto offerings. The deal comes as Robinhood rebounds from a challenging 2023 and the crypto market experiences a significant upswing. The SEC's scrutiny of Robinhood's token offerings may pose a challenge to its plans to expand its crypto offerings in the U.S. Bitstamp's CEO stated that the platform and expertise will be integrated into Robinhood's ecosystem, but it is unclear if Bitstamp will remain a stand-alone brand. Capital served as the financial advisor to Robinhood, and Galaxy Digital Partners advised Bitstamp.

#Robinhood #Bitstamp #CryptoExchange #Acquisition #Cryptocurrency

https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/06/06/robinhood-bitstamp-crypto-deal-200million/


Rite Aid's exit from bankruptcy hinges on CEO's $20 million payout
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Rite Aid's lenders are demanding a reduction in CEO Jeffrey Stein's proposed $20 million payout before funding the company's exit from bankruptcy. The pay package is one of the remaining points of contention in negotiations that began in October 2023 when the company filed for Chapter 11. Rite Aid has faced concerns from creditors about its liquidity and has accumulated significant professional expenses during the bankruptcy process. Talks over Stein's compensation are ongoing. Rite Aid's restructuring plan involves creditors taking over the struggling chain and exiting bankruptcy protection. The company's legal team is working on a rescue deal with banks and a bondholder group. Stein is currently collecting $300,000 in monthly consulting fees. The restructuring plan also includes a $75 million injection of financing from the creditor group to support the chain's cash reserves. Stein previously received a monthly consulting fee of $100,000 and a success bonus of $1.25 million when he served as chief restructuring officer for GWG Holdings Inc. Rite Aid declined to comment on the matter.

#RiteAid #Bankruptcy #Ceo #Payout #Negotiations #Creditors #Liquidity #Restructuring #ConsultingFees #RescueDeal #Financing

https://fortune.com/2024/06/06/rite-aid-bankruptcy-chapter-11-ceo-pay/


Twitter founder Jack Dorsey warns social media is draining people of free will
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Jack Dorsey, the founder of Twitter, expressed concern at the Oslo Freedom Forum that social media algorithms are draining people of their free will. He believes that social media and internet companies that curate content to maximize user engagement are just the first manifestation of this danger. Dorsey argues that AI tools will know us better than we know ourselves and will influence our thinking at a subconscious level, even if their algorithms are transparent. Elon Musk, who purchased Twitter, agrees with Dorsey's warning. Dorsey suggests creating a marketplace of algorithms that give users choice and the ability to switch between algorithms or build their own. He also warns about the risk of becoming dependent on a few corporations that commercialize AI technology, such as OpenAI, Google, Meta, and Anthropic. Dorsey believes that the free speech debate is a distraction and that the real debate should be about free will.

#JackDorsey #ElonMusk #SocialMedia #Algorithms #FreeWill #Ai #Openai #Twitter

https://fortune.com/2024/06/06/elon-musk-jack-dorsey-twitter-x-social-media-algorithms-free-will/


He taught at MIT, worked at Morgan Stanley, and convinced Bill Ackman and Galaxy to back his $200 million crypto fund by his early 30s. His future is now in jeopardy
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Yida Gao, a former MIT graduate and founder of Shima Capital, raised $200 million from investors like Bill Ackman and Galaxy for his crypto fund. However, an investigation revealed that Gao created a secret offshore entity and funneled assets from his venture fund into his own name, violating SEC investor protection rules. Shima Capital has experienced an exodus of top employees and struggles to raise further capital. Gao's firm valued investments based on his own estimations and faced difficulties finding an auditor. The ownership structure of Shima Capital, with an offshore entity owned solely by Gao, raises conflict of interest concerns. Gao's missteps serve as a cautionary tale for investors in the crypto industry.

#YidaGao #ShimaCapital #CryptoFund #BillAckman #Galaxy #Sec #OffshoreEntity #InvestorProtectionRules #ValuationDisparities #ConflictOfInterest #CautionaryTale

https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/06/06/shima-capital-vc-ackman-galaxy-yida-gao/


Whole Foods founder said Jeff Bezos is a ‘genius’ who got rid of the ‘whole paycheck’ stigma
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John Mackey, the founder of Whole Foods, credited Jeff Bezos for getting rid of the 'whole paycheck' stigma associated with the supermarket chain. After Amazon acquired Whole Foods in 2017, the company was able to lower its prices four times, shedding its reputation for high prices. Mackey praised Bezos for his long-term thinking and called him a genius. Whole Foods has also doubled down on sales and discounts, as well as savings options for Amazon Prime members. The company plans to open 30 stores a year. Amazon also gave employees a pay bump and did not try to change Whole Foods' culture.

#WholeFoods #JeffBezos #Supermarket #Amazon #Pricing #Discounts

https://fortune.com/2024/06/05/whole-foods-bezos-amazon-mackey-paycheck-stigma/


Where to book a table this summer—the world's 50 top restaurants
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The best restaurant in the world right now is Barcelona’s Disfrutar, according to the World’s 50 Best organization. Three of the top five spots went to restaurants in Spain. The awards were staged at a live event at the Wynn Las Vegas. Last year’s No. 1, Central in Lima, now moves to the Best of the Best category. The World’s 50 Best List is owned and operated by the UK-based William Reed Business Media. Here are this year’s winning restaurants:

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/06/06/the-worlds-50-best-restaurants-barcelona-disfrutar/


Jamie Dimon reportedly up for a knighthood in the U.K. as part of Rishi Sunak's honors nominations
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Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, is reportedly being considered for a knighthood in the U.K. as part of Rishi Sunak's honors nominations. The U.K. honors system consists of three types of awards, and a knighthood is the highest ranking under the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire. Dimon, along with former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who is also on Sunak's nomination list, are U.S. citizens, so the nominations have been routed through the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. The nominations are still subject to approval by King Charles III. The process began in mid-May and falls under the New Year's honors, the sovereign's birthday honors, and resignation honors from departing prime ministers. Dimon, who is stepping down from his role at JPMorgan in the next five years, could potentially add a 'Sir' to the front of his name if he accepts the knighthood.

#JamieDimon #JpmorganChase #Knighthood #RishiSunak #UkHonorsSystem

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/06/06/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-knighthood-rishi-sunak/


Singapore carves out a space in the chip supply chain with a new $7.8 billion plant from Europe's NXP and a TSMC-backed manufacturer
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Singapore has attracted a $7.8 billion investment from Vanguard International Semiconductor, backed by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), and NXP Semiconductors to build a new chip wafer plant. The plant will produce mature chips for power management functions in cars, industrial products, and consumer goods. Construction is expected to begin later this year, with production starting in 2027. The investment is a testament to Singapore's attractiveness for semiconductor manufacturing and its position as a critical global node for semiconductors. Singapore has a long history in semiconductor manufacturing and offers tax incentives to manufacturers. The country has also received investment pledges from other chipmakers, including GlobalFoundries and UMC. The investment in Singapore is part of a trend among chipmakers to geographically diversify their manufacturing locations. Other Southeast Asian countries, such as Malaysia, are also attracting chipmakers to avoid geopolitical issues. The new chip plant in Singapore is expected to create about 1,500 jobs.

#Singapore #Semiconductor #ChipSupplyChain #Investment #Manufacturing

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/06/06/singapore-carves-out-space-chip-supply-chain-new-plant-nxp-semiconductors-tsmc-vanguard/


Fortune 500 CEOs are upbeat on the economy—and they wish they owned Microsoft and Nvidia stock
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Fortune 500 CEOs in an annual survey are optimistic about the economy, with only 28% predicting a recession in the next 12 months. Almost 70% believe the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates before the end of 2024. Only 22% are concerned about the disruptive impact of AI. The CEO most admired is Satya Nadella of Microsoft, and the stocks they would personally like to own are Microsoft and Nvidia. The survey was conducted from April 18-28, 2024.

#Fortune500 #Economy #Ceos #Survey #Microsoft #Nvidia #Ai

https://fortune.com/2024/06/06/fortune-500-ceo-survey-2024-ai-economy-microsoft-nvidia/


JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon is bracing for stagflation, but the economy could be headed for a 1950s-style boom instead
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JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned of the possibility of stagflation, citing the extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus over the past five years. However, macro strategist Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank suggests that the U.S. economy could be heading for a 1950s-style boom instead. Allen points out several similarities between the two eras, including a surge in inflation followed by a decline, historically low unemployment rates, rising stock markets, and geopolitical tensions. He also notes two key differences: the surge in U.S. government debt in the 2020s compared to the deleveraging in the 1950s, and declining birth rates and an aging population today. Allen believes that improving labor market productivity and the potential for emerging technologies like AI could help avoid a period of persistent inflation and stagnation. However, he cautions that no era is exactly alike, and demographic trends and rising national debt could present headwinds to growth in the future.

#JamieDimon #JpmorganChase #Stagflation #Economy #1950sstyleBoom #Inflation #Unemployment #StockMarket #GeopoliticalTensions #Productivity #GovernmentDebt #BirthRates

https://fortune.com/2024/06/04/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-bracing-stagflation-economy-1950s-style-boom-instead/


Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says both consumers and businesses are ‘slowing things down’—in fact, they’re acting like its 2016, a period of ‘very low growth’
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Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says consumers and commercial businesses are slowing down their spending. While consumers are still spending on experiences, they are consciously pulling back on day-to-day purchases such as groceries. On the commercial side, spending is still happening but at a slower pace. Moynihan compared the current behavior of consumers and businesses to the mid-to-late-2010s, a period of low growth and low inflation. Despite the high inflation in 2024, people may be spending less on general purchases and instead splurging on experiences. Moynihan emphasized the importance of keeping consumers in the game for the U.S. economy. He also noted that businesses are being less aggressive in their spending due to higher borrowing costs. However, there are no signs of stress in credit risk ratings on the consumer or commercial side. Moynihan has previously warned the Fed about pushing consumers too hard and crippling the economy. Overall, consumers and businesses are being cautious and slowing down their spending, but without significant negative impacts.

#BankOfAmerica #BrianMoynihan #ConsumerSpending #BusinessSpending #Inflation #LowGrowth #UsEconomy

https://fortune.com/2024/05/31/bank-of-america-ceo-brian-moynihan-consumers-businesses-low-growth-economy/


Fed official says the U.S. has the 'luxury' to play the waiting game with inflation thanks to the strong labor market
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Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, stated that the U.S. has the 'luxury' to wait and see on rate cuts due to the strong labor market. The unemployment rate in the U.S. is 3.9%, and the job market remains healthy. Kashkari believes that the Fed should take its time to assess inflation and make the right decisions. Consumer sentiment has improved, and the overall economic outlook will influence the November elections. The housing market is also a significant factor in people's attitudes about the economy. Wall Street's expectations for rate cuts have decreased, and there is a possibility of a rate increase this year. Kashkari mentioned that the recent quantitative tightening hasn't affected consumers' ability to spend. The Fed wants to determine if inflation will go lower or if it will stabilize around 3%. Kashkari and others have suggested that a baseline level of inflation at 3% may be the new normal. The article also mentions other news unrelated to Kashkari's statements.

#FederalReserve #NeelKashkari #Inflation #InterestRates #LaborMarket #Unemployment #Economy

https://fortune.com/2024/05/28/inflation-waiting-game-interest-rates-labor-market-neel-kashkari-economy/


'Rational' monetary policies are back, says Turkey's finance chief, as he seeks to stabilize inflation-ridden economy
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Turkey's finance chief, Mehmet Simsek, states that 'rational' monetary policies are back in Turkey after a period of economic adventurism and crises. Simsek, a former Merrill Lynch bond strategist, believes that this shift towards rational policies will stabilize the inflation-ridden economy and make the country's lira debt a sound investment. Despite the high inflation rate of almost 70%, foreign investors are confident that price rises will decelerate rapidly by the end of 2024. The inflow of foreign capital into Turkey has hit a record pace, with portfolio inflows into Turkish assets exceeding $25 billion since the end of March. Simsek is keen to avoid excessive appreciation of the lira, as it would harm Turkish exporters. He believes that a combination of sound policies and structural transformation will regain investor confidence and stabilize the real exchange rate. Banks such as BNP Paribas recommend investors buy short-term lira bonds, which have yields of around 40%. Simsek expects investors to shift into longer-term bonds in the future. However, a complete truce with portfolio investors will only be achieved when inflation starts to slow and Turkey eases restrictions on offshore currency swaps. Turkey is exploring ways to loosen these arrangements for offshore markets, starting with longer-term swaps. The momentum of domestic reform in Turkey will remain in the spotlight for investors, as the country aims to cool the economy and address challenges such as broadening the tax base and combating the shadow economy.

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/05/28/rational-monetary-policies-back-turkey-finance-chief-stabilize-inflation-ridden-economy/


Jamie Dimon says there’s a chance the Fed could further hike rates instead of cutting
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Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns that the Federal Reserve may raise rates instead of cutting them, which would send shock waves through Wall Street and the economy. Dimon believes that the world is not prepared for higher rates. This view contradicts the consensus among economists who expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in September. Dimon's concern is based on the possibility of inflation being stickier than expected due to fiscal and monetary stimulus. He warns that higher rates and a recession could lead to stagflation. Dimon's warning aligns with the caution expressed by other finance executives, including Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup. Dimon's statement comes as a surprise as he recently hinted at the possibility of retiring in the next five years.

#JamieDimon #JpmorganChase #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Economy

https://fortune.com/2024/05/23/jamie-dimon-jerome-powell-base-rate-cut-could-raise/


EU's $47bn trade surplus over U.S. is a new record high—expect it to get bigger
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The EU's trade surplus with the U.S. reached a record high of €43.6 billion ($47.3 billion) in the first quarter of 2024, reflecting an increase in exports to the U.S. and a reduction in imports to the EU. This surge is attributed to the rising costs of trading with China due to the U.S.-China trade war, making European imports more attractive. On the other hand, lower EU demand for American goods is likely due to economic challenges in Europe, such as declining manufacturing and sanctions cutting off access to cheap Russian oil and gas. The EU is also experiencing a trade deficit with China, and there are concerns of a potential trade war over alleged state subsidies for manufacturing. Despite these challenges, the trend of closer trade ties between the U.S. and Europe is expected to continue, benefiting the EU. The EU is expected to follow the U.S. in placing tariffs on Chinese EVs, but at a lower level. Overall, the EU's trade surplus with the U.S. is expected to grow even larger.

#Eu #Us #TradeSurplus #ChinaTariffs #TradeWar

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/05/22/eus-trade-surplus-over-usa-surges-record-47-billion-china-tariffs-going-up-get-even-bigger/


Jamie Dimon shocks Wall Street, hinting at his retirement in the next five years and reciting a laundry list of red flags about the global economy
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Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, hinted at his retirement in the next five years during JPMorgan Chase's investor day. He expressed concerns about the global economy, including inflation, government spending, and geopolitical volatility. Dimon's retirement announcement caused JPMorgan's stock to dip. The company is now focusing on succession planning, with Marianne Lake and Jennifer Piepszak considered frontrunners for the CEO position. Dimon emphasized the need to address the national debt, inflation, and geopolitical tensions. Despite the challenges, he leaves behind a strong company with a diversified business and a healthy balance sheet.

#JamieDimon #Jpmorgan #Retirement #GlobalEconomy #SuccessionPlanning #Inflation #GovernmentSpending #GeopoliticalVolatility #StockMarket

https://fortune.com/2024/05/21/jamie-dimon-retirement-retiring-jpmorgan-ceo-successors-economy-inflation-investors/


Elon Musk, NPR, and a Signal smear campaign
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The article discusses a culture war debate surrounding the cryptographic integrity of messaging apps Telegram and Signal. The debate has been fueled by Elon Musk, NPR, and their respective supporters. The controversy began when a Stanford researcher revealed that the CEO of NPR sat on the board of the Signal Foundation, leading to insinuations that Signal was compromised. However, experts argue that Signal is secure and trustworthy due to its open-source and encrypted nature, while Telegram lacks end-to-end encryption and is suspected of being back-doored by the Kremlin. The article emphasizes that the issue should be decided based on technology rather than cultural biases.

#ElonMusk #Npr #Signal #Telegram #CultureWar #MessagingApps #CryptographicIntegrity #Privacy #Technology

https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/05/20/elon-musk-npr-signal-telegram-smear-campaign/


Why can’t America have high speed rail? Because our investment is a ‘rounding error’ compared with Europe's, says Amtrak’s CEO
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The U.S. lacks high-speed trains due to a lack of political and financial alignment to make the necessary investment, according to Amtrak CEO Stephen Gardner. The U.S. has an aging infrastructure and has faced competition from the automobile and aviation industries. The $66 billion federal funding for rail in the 2021 infrastructure package is insufficient to build high-speed rail, which would cost approximately $4 trillion. Other countries have made high-speed rail a national priority and have received massive investments from their governments. Amtrak is upgrading passenger rail infrastructure and acquiring new trains, but they are still slower than trains in France, Japan, and China. Amtrak also faces challenges collaborating with freight rail companies. The U.S.'s investment in rail is significantly lower than Europe's. High-speed rail is best suited for shorter distances between cities and is a more environmentally friendly option than air travel or driving.

#HighspeedRail #Amtrak #Infrastructure #Investment #Transportation

https://fortune.com/2024/05/19/high-speed-trains-us-vs-europe-china-japan-amtrak-ceo-freight-infrastructure/


Paul McCartney is now a billionaire, the first British musician to do it—and the former Beatle can thank Beyoncé
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Paul McCartney, the former Beatle, has reached a net worth of £1 billion ($1.3 billion), making him the first British musician to become a billionaire. This increase in wealth is attributed to McCartney's extensive back catalog, the renewed interest in the Beatles, and Beyoncé's reimagined version of McCartney's song 'Blackbird' in her album. McCartney's fortune is still below the richest person in the UK, Gopi Hinduja and family, who have a fortune worth £37.2 billion. McCartney's income stream is expected to receive a boost with the release of his latest album 'One Hand Clapping' in June. However, he will no longer receive royalty payments from Cirque du Soleil's show 'The Beatles Love' as it is scheduled to close next month. McCartney's wealth is estimated by Fortune magazine.

#PaulMccartney #Billionaire #BritishMusician #NetWorth #Beatles #Beyoncé

https://fortune.com/2024/05/20/paul-mccartney-billionaire-net-worth-nancy-beatles-beyonce-blackbird/


Taylor Swift's Eras Tour is cheaper for Americans to see in Europe than in the U.S.—thanks to the strong dollar and EU regulations
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Taylor Swift's Eras Tour is cheaper for Americans to see in Europe than in the U.S. due to the strong dollar and EU regulations. Traveling to Sweden from New York to see Swift would cost about $1,300, including $300 for a concert ticket, $700 for a roundtrip flight, and $300 for a night at a four-star hotel. In comparison, ticket prices for Swift's upcoming shows in Miami, New Orleans, and Indianapolis range from $2,000 to $8,500. The strong U.S. dollar has fueled a wave of American tourism abroad, making overseas vacations less expensive. European countries and the European Union have limits on mark-ups from ticket resellers, resulting in prices for Swift's Eras Tour in Portugal, Spain, and Germany coming in around $300-$400. The high prices for Swift tickets in the U.S. have led to outrage and the signing of a law in Minnesota to protect online ticket buyers. The U.S. Department of Justice is reportedly preparing an antitrust lawsuit against Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster. Swift's surprise release of a double album has added to the hype around her tour and propelled her to a net worth of $1.1 billion.

#TaylorSwift #ErasTour #ConcertTickets #Europe #Us #StrongDollar #EuRegulations #TicketResellers #Minnesota #LiveNation

https://fortune.com/2024/05/18/taylor-swift-eras-tour-cheaper-europe-vs-us-strong-dollar-ticker-reseller-rules/


Stock market rally: 14 of world's 20 biggest markets hit record highs
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14 of the world's 20 biggest stock markets have hit record highs, including the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. The rally is driven by looming interest rate cuts, healthy economies, and corporate earnings. The S&P 500 has set 24 new all-time highs in 2024, riding a $12 trillion rally since late October. European equities are also on a record-hitting spree, with positive economic data and better-than-expected earnings. The UK's FTSE 100 Index has been boosted by soaring commodity prices. Japan's Nikkei 225 is up 16% this year, and India's S&P BSE Sensex is setting records. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index hit a high after inflation data. The rally is broadening out and there are no red signals from a macro perspective.

#StockMarket #RecordHighs #Equities #Rally #InterestRateCuts #CorporateEarnings #S&p500 #DowJonesIndustrialAverage #Ftse100 #Nikkei225 #S&pBseSensex #CommodityPrices

https://fortune.com/2024/05/18/stock-market-rally-dow-sp500-nasdaq-nikkei-stoxx-ftse-sensex/


Dow slams milestone 40,000 after Walmart announced blockbuster profits
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed the 40,000 level for the first time on Thursday, driven by strong corporate profits and the U.S. economy's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Dow rose 69 points, or 0.2%, to 39,967, reaching 40,000 earlier in the day. The S&P 500 index was 0.1% higher, while the Nasdaq composite was down 0.1%. Walmart's announcement of stronger-than-expected profits for the latest quarter contributed to the market's strength. The company's performance is seen as an encouraging signal for the broader economy. Other retailers, such as Target and Home Depot, also saw their stocks rise following Walmart's report. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed that it had acquired an ownership stake in an insurer, leading to a 4.2% increase in the insurer's stock. The stock market's rally has been fueled by stronger-than-expected profit reports and hopes of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields have eased in May, and there are signs of a steady-to-cooling economy. However, some reports on the economy, such as higher-than-expected unemployment benefit applications and weaker manufacturing growth, have raised concerns. On Wall Street, Deere & Co. saw its stock fall 4% despite reporting stronger profits, and homebuilders' stocks declined following a weaker-than-expected report on housing starts. GameStop and AMC Entertainment experienced a decline after a surge earlier in the week. In international markets, European indexes were modestly lower, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Japan's Nikkei 225 rose.

#DowJonesIndustrialAverage #Walmart #StockMarket #CorporateProfits #UsEconomy #Covid19Pandemic

https://fortune.com/2024/05/16/dow-slams-milestone-40000-after-walmart-profits/


The housing crisis in the U.S. is flipped upside down in Japan, where each home that's occupied could be next to an empty one by 2033
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The housing crisis in the U.S. is the opposite in Japan, where a shrinking population has led to a surge in the number of empty homes. Vacancies in Japan have reached 8.99 million, an increase of 500,000 from the previous survey in 2018 and an 80% surge from 20 years ago. This means a record 13.8% of homes in Japan are now vacant, with the share exceeding 20% in some rural areas. The number of abandoned homes has also risen to 3.85 million, or 5.9% of all homes. The U.S. Census Bureau reported vacancy rates of 6.6% for rental housing and 0.8% for homeowner housing. The vacancy rates in Japan align with a prediction by Nomura Research Institute that the vacancy rate could exceed 30.4% by 2033. The best solution would be to increase Japan's population or at least halt its decline, but this is challenging. Other options include removing vacant homes, limiting new construction, and converting them to non-residential properties. Tax policies and ownership issues also contribute to the problem. Foreigners may see bargains in Japan's housing market, but renovation costs and language barriers make it difficult for them to purchase these homes.

#HousingCrisis #VacantHomes #Japan #Us

https://fortune.com/2024/05/12/housing-market-crisis-us-vs-japan-vacant-homes-abandoned-properties/


China's economy is headed for a 'dead-end,' and Beijing won't do anything to stop that, scholar says
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China's economy is in a dead-end with weak domestic consumer demand and slowing growth due to years of erratic and irresponsible policies, excessive Communist Party control, and undelivered promises of reform. The only solution Beijing sees is to rely on an export surge, which will lead to more tension with trade partners and a gloomier outlook for the Chinese people. The root cause of China's economic problems is the Communist Party's excessive control and counterproductive strategies. Most economists recommend loosening the grip on the private sector and promoting more consumption, but that is unacceptable to the government. The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests could have been an opportunity for liberalization, but the government chose to tighten control and rely on government investment. China's investment-driven growth has led to debt accumulation and underutilized infrastructure. President Xi Jinping is running out of policy options as Chinese consumers refuse to boost spending and trade partners impose barriers on exports. China's economy still relies on replicating existing technologies, and the 'reform and opening' era has ended. China's slowing growth, real estate crisis, high youth unemployment, and U.S. restrictions on key technologies have led to predictions of a lost decade of stagnation. However, some experts believe China will continue to expand at twice the rate of the United States. The article warns against complacency and highlights the need for the U.S. to address China's growth.

#China #Economy #ExportSurge #CommunistParty #Reform #TiananmenSquareProtests #InvestmentdrivenGrowth #Debt #PresidentXiJinping #Consumption #TradePartners #TechnologicalInnovation #LostDecade #UschinaRelations

https://fortune.com/2024/05/11/china-economy-outlook-dead-end-exports-manufacturing-trade/


Taylor Swift “overshadowing” the Olympics as Americans flock to Paris for The Eras Tour
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Taylor Swift is playing four shows at La Défense Arena in Paris, kicking off the European leg of her “Eras Tour.” The concerts are drawing five times as many Americans as the Paris Olympics. Paris authorities have spent years preparing for the Olympics but may have overlooked the popularity of Taylor Swift. The concerts are drawing Americans who are also planning larger European trips to follow the shows. The appetite for the tour comes amid lower-than-expected demand for the Olympic Games. In 2023, the first round of Taylor Swift's US concerts contributed $4.3 billion to the country’s gross domestic product.

#TaylorSwift #Olympics #Paris #ErasTour #Concerts

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/05/08/taylor-swift-olympics-paris-americans-eras-tour/


UPS is searching for its next CFO
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The CFO of UPS, Brian Newman, will step down on June 1 for health reasons. In his separation agreement with the company, Newman will receive $1.83 million in cash, among other payments and benefits. UPS will consider internal and external candidates to fill the position. Newman's departure comes as the package-delivery service tries to turn around its financial performance amid low volumes. In the quarterly earnings report, UPS reported that the decline in customer demand had nearly leveled off. Average daily volume (ADV) declined 3.2% in the US and 5.8% internationally. CEO Carol Tomé said Newman "has been a great partner, having guided the company through unprecedented economic conditions."

https://fortune.com/2024/05/07/ups-is-searching-for-its-next-cfo/


Billionaires sipped wine, noshed on caviar at lavish Formula 1 gala that included Goldman CEO David Solomon, Elon Musk and investor Nelson Peltz
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Billionaires including Goldman CEO David Solomon, Elon Musk, and investor Nelson Peltz attended a lavish Formula 1 gala at Carbone Beach in Miami. The event took place a day before the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Miami and aimed to boost the sport's popularity in the US. The Miami Grand Prix has become an annual fixture for the rich and famous, attracting celebrities and sports stars. The Hard Rock beach club hosted a three-day bash with performances by Ed Sheeran and DJ Steve Aoki, where menu prices were exorbitant. The F1 event in Miami also saw the attendance of sport stars Patrick Mahomes and LeBron James, and rapper will.i.am. The article provides details of the extravagant menu prices and mentions the success of Lando Norris in the race. The event was part of a series of parties and events organized around the Formula 1 race in Miami, which has become a magnet for billionaires.

#Formula1 #Miami #Billionaires #DavidSolomon #ElonMusk #NelsonPeltz

https://fortune.com/2024/05/06/billionaires-sipped-wine-caviar-at-formula1-miami/


Target treks off the beaten path amid sales slump—by selling its own-brand products at other retailers
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Target plans to expand its Cat & Jack children’s clothing line across 85 Hudson’s Bay Co. Canadian department stores, resulting in a 15% increase in basket size at Hudson’s Bay. Target has no plans to replicate its own-brand expansion in the U.S. but is using this strategy to win over consumers in times of slashed discretionary spending. Target's sales in 2023 saw a 1.7% decline to $105.8 billion. Target's private-label strategy is uncommon, but expanding private brands to new geographies or to appeal to specific demographics is a cheap way to build exposure. The practice of expanding private-label brands beyond their originating retailer grew more common from 2008 to 2012, and the trend tends to emerge in times of economic unease. Target's move to expand its private brands beyond its own stores is not a popular gambit among retailers.

#Target #Cat&Jack #Hudson'sBay #PrivatelabelBrands #Retailers #SalesStrategy

https://fortune.com/2024/05/06/target-cat-jack-hudsons-bay-childrens-clothing-own-private-brand/


Warren Buffett predicts ‘higher taxes are likely’ since the national debt won’t pay for itself
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Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, predicts that higher taxes are likely in the future due to the national debt not being able to pay for itself. He expressed frustration that other companies are not paying their fair share of taxes. Buffett mentioned that under the Trump administration, the statutory rate for corporations was reduced to 21% in 2017. He believes that the government may decide to increase taxes to reduce the fiscal deficit. Buffett has advocated for those who can pay more taxes to do so and supports the idea of companies like his paying a larger percentage of their earnings to the government. The Biden administration is proposing higher capital gains taxes, including on unrealized gains. Buffett sees no alternative to U.S. Treasury bonds and believes that U.S. debt will be acceptable for a long time. He also mentioned that the U.S. has become complacent about the national debt issue since Bill Clinton balanced the budget and has not addressed the risks from unfunded entitlement programs for Medicare and Social Security.

#WarrenBuffett #Taxes #NationalDebt #BerkshireHathaway #TrumpAdministration #CapitalGainsTaxes #UsTreasuryBonds #FiscalDeficit #UnfundedEntitlementPrograms

https://fortune.com/2024/05/06/warren-buffett-taxes-national-debt-berkshire-hathaway-apple/


China President Xi's European charm offensive turns to trade and 'fair competition' as he meets with France's Macron
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China President Xi Jinping arrived at the French presidential palace on Monday for a two-day state visit. The visit is expected to focus on trade disputes and diplomatic efforts to convince Beijing to use its influence to move Russia toward ending the war in Ukraine. The talks will address trade issues, fair competition, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. France hopes the discussions will help convince China to use its leverage with Moscow to contribute to a resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. Macron will also raise concerns about Chinese subsidies and tensions over French cosmetics and other sectors. The discussions will be closely watched from Washington, as President Joe Biden is expected to pay his own state visit to France in a month. Xi's visit marks the 60th anniversary of France-China diplomatic relations. Macron will also raise human rights concerns during the visit.

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/05/06/china-president-xi-europe-trade-fair-competition-france-macron/


Starbucks ex-CEO Howard Schultz says chain needs a major fix after biggest sales miss in years: 'There must be contrition'
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Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz is urging the coffee chain to take ownership of its shortcomings and fix operations following its biggest sales miss in years. Schultz, who remains Starbucks' fifth-largest shareholder, emphasized the need for contrition and renewed focus on the core. The drop in sales was attributed to factors such as chilly January temperatures and the conflict in the Middle East. Schultz called for reinventing the mobile ordering and payment platform and overhauling the go-to-market strategy with coffee-forward innovation. Starbucks has also faced pressure in China, where same-store sales declined by 11%. Schultz expressed confidence in the company's recovery and its China business returning to health.

#Starbucks #HowardSchultz #CoffeeChain #SalesMiss #Contrition #Operations #MobileOrdering #ChinaMarket

https://fortune.com/2024/05/06/starbucks-ex-ceo-howard-schultz-chain-major-fix-biggest-sales-miss-years/


Business Roundtable announces new mental health initiative for employee well-being
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The Business Roundtable has launched its Mental Health Initiative to promote mental well-being in the workplace. The initiative includes resources, training programs, peer forums, and tools for managers. The goal is to create a culture and practices that encourage the awareness and adoption of mental health benefits and remove the stigma around discussing mental well-being at work. The initiative aims to identify best practices for companies and provide support for employees' mental health. CEO David Cordani sees the initiative as an opportunity to curate best practices and create higher levels of vitality and mental well-being for employees. Poor mental health costs the U.S. economy $47.6 billion annually in lost productivity alone. The initiative is part of the effort to address this issue.

https://fortune.com/2024/05/01/business-roundtable-announces-mental-health-initiative-benefit-uptake/


Norwegian cruise mogul’s success secrets: Focus on the wealthy and absolutely no kids allowed
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Torstein Hagen, the founder of Viking Holdings Ltd., has built one of the world's biggest luxury cruise operators by focusing on the wealthy and intellectually curious, avoiding nickel-and-diming, and excluding children. Viking is seeking to raise up to $1.3 billion through an initial public offering in New York, which would value the company at around $10 billion. Hagen, with a fortune estimated to surpass $5 billion, will control just over half of the shares after the sale. Viking operates 92 vessels and targets affluent English speakers aged 55 or older. The company plans to use the IPO proceeds to increase its capitalization and financial flexibility. Hagen sees growth potential in China and other parts of Asia and is exploring safaris and land tours. Viking's clients are primarily from North America, and the company has sold stakes to the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and TPG Inc.

#CruiseIndustry #LuxuryTravel #VikingHoldingsLtd #InitialPublicOffering #Wealthy #NoKidsAllowed

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/04/30/viking-cruise-ipo-billionaire-torstein-hagen-no-kids/


HSBC CEO Noel Quinn, who pivoted Europe's largest bank back towards Asia, unexpectedly steps down
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Noel Quinn, CEO of HSBC Holdings Plc, is stepping down after nearly 5 years in the job. The board has begun a formal process to find a successor. During his tenure, Quinn led a series of strategic reviews that resulted in a plan to boost the bank's investment in its Asian business while cutting back in developed Western markets. HSBC also posted a 1.8% drop in pretax profit to $12.65 billion. Quinn was appointed permanent CEO in March 2020, following the ouster of his predecessor John Flint. This will be the third CEO search under Chairman Mark Tucker.

#Hsbc #NoelQuinn #Banking #Asia

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/04/30/hsbc-ceo-noel-quinn-steps-down-pivot-to-asia-europes-largest-bank/


Fears over AI killing labor demand are ‘probably overblown,’ researcher argues in new Google report
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Andrew McAfee, a researcher at Google and MIT, argues in a report that fears over AI killing labor demand are 'probably overblown.' He explains that previous general-purpose technologies have shown that the growth they bring is accompanied by strong demand for labor. McAfee explores the implications of generative AI in economic growth, looking at its effects on job skills, wages, industries, and potential risks. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts that AI will start impacting the US GDP in 2027 and could automate around 25% of labor tasks in advanced economies. However, McAfee believes that generative AI will also create demand for new skills.

#Ai #LaborDemand #GenerativeAi #EconomicGrowth

https://fortune.com/2024/04/29/fears-ai-killing-labor-demand-overblown-google-report/


Who needs Fed rate cuts? Stocks can rally without them, Wall Street bulls say
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Robust global economic growth may support a stock market rally even without Federal Reserve rate cuts. The S&P 500 Index had its best week since November, pushing it back toward record levels. Investors are debating whether the recent weakness in the market was just a blip or if delayed policy easing will bring it down again. Some investors believe that the market can follow the playbook of the 1990s, when equities tripled in value despite rates hovering around current levels. The strong economic growth during that time provided a platform for stocks to shine. While the global outlook is uncertain, there is enough momentum to push the stock market forward. Traders' anticipation of multiple Fed rate cuts this year has been pared back to only one, which could support the rally in equity markets. Confidence in the global economy has strengthened, backed by US growth and signs of a rebound in China. Short-term pullbacks in the S&P 500 are seen as healthy, and historical data shows that the index tends to perform well when 10-year Treasury yields are higher. Early results from the current reporting season suggest that US companies are outperforming expectations, and analysts expect S&P 500 profits to jump in the coming years. A booming economy will continue to support stocks even without rate cuts, but stagflation would be a danger.

#StockMarket #FederalReserve #RateCuts #S&p500 #Equities #EconomicGrowth

https://fortune.com/2024/04/28/stock-market-outlook-fed-rate-cuts-sp500-rally-earnings/


The economy seems weaker than advertised and inflation is still running hot—it’s the ‘worst of both worlds’
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New data reveals weaker economic growth and higher inflation in the US. Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose just 1.6% from a year ago in the first quarter, well below economists' forecast of 2.5% growth. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge, surged from 2% to 3.7% in the first three months of this year. The spike in core inflation, particularly in the services sector, is a setback for the Fed, which has been hoping for inflation to fade so they can cut interest rates and boost the economy. Economists predict that the Fed's favorite inflation gauge will likely rise to 2.8% when March's data is revealed, forcing central bank officials into a more hawkish position. Despite fading support from fiscal stimulus and weaker spending on goods, economists still expect Fed rate cuts this summer. However, investors seem less enthusiastic about the chances of market-juicing rate cuts, as the stock market dropped after the GDP report was released. Some economists argue that the US economy could be facing stagflation, a scenario with weak growth and high inflation. The weak GDP data has some caveats, such as rising private domestic demand and spending on services, which indicate underlying strength in the economy. These caveats may keep the Fed from lowering interest rates for the time being.

#UsEconomy #Inflation #GdpGrowth #FederalReserve #InterestRates

https://fortune.com/2024/04/25/high-inflation-low-economic-grow-worst-of-both-worlds-gdp-report/


Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft earnings will be all about AI and whether one of them deserves to be on the ‘wall of worry’
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The earnings calls of Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft will focus on AI. OpenAI's ChatGPT has sparked interest in AI, with executives mentioning it nearly 200 times in each earnings cycle since its debut in November 2022. Microsoft's Azure is the star of its AI portfolio, offering a suite of AI tools to businesses. Google's revenue comes from search and related services, which could be replaced by AI from other companies. Meta is using AI to improve its social media algorithms and generate more revenue from advertising. Analysts expect AI to be the central theme in earnings calls for the first three months of 2024.

https://fortune.com/2024/04/24/meta-alphabet-microsoft-google-earnings-ai-artificial-intelligence-2024/


A U.S. manufacturing renaissance won't create many good jobs—just look at Germany, S. Korea and China, Harvard economist says
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Harvard economist Dani Rodrik argues that a U.S. manufacturing renaissance will not create many jobs, citing examples from Germany, South Korea, and China. Rodrik points out that while U.S. manufacturing productivity has surged, employment in the sector has declined, with 6 million manufacturing jobs lost since 1980. Despite efforts by the Biden administration to encourage domestic production, manufacturing's share of non-farm employment has continued to decline. Rodrik suggests that services such as retail and care work will remain the primary engine of job creation.

#Manufacturing #Jobs #Economy #UsManufacturing #DaniRodrik #Germany #SouthKorea #China #Productivity #Employment #BidenAdministration

https://fortune.com/2024/04/21/us-manufacturing-jobs-economy-chips-act-ira-joe-biden-donald-trump/


Single women are scraping by: Held down by the wage gap and inflation, they struggle to build wealth or emergency savings
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Single women are struggling to build wealth or emergency savings due to the wage gap and inflation. According to a survey by Credit Karma, 36% of women don't feel financially stable, with 40% of single women reporting a lack of financial security compared to 34% of partnered women. Women earn 16% less than men on average and have less emergency savings. The number of single women in the workforce has increased, but their journey to autonomy and building wealth remains elusive. Women who were never married have a wealth gap of 29%. Single women face challenges in affording basic necessities, going on vacations, and saving for the future. Some single women have gone into debt, and 21% are tired of spending money on their friends' life milestones. Financial factors are a motivator for 24% of single women looking to be in a couple. Women in couples are not necessarily financially dependent, with 47% saying they are financially independent and 25% outearning their partner. However, an extra salary can help buffer the impact of the economy.

https://fortune.com/2024/04/19/single-women-are-scraping-by/


Our entire approach to summer internships is broken–and many students don’t stand a chance
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Access to paid summer internships is not equally available to every student, with significant gaps persisting across most industries. Less than half of seniors reported having an internship experience, and first-generation, Black, Latino, and female students are less likely to engage in paid internships. Paid internships are valuable, with participants earning $3,000 more than their non-internship peers one year after graduation. However, prestigious and lucrative internships often go to students who already have resources and connections. Housing and temporary relocation costs pose barriers for students without financial support. Universities can employ students in campus jobs related to their field of study and incorporate skills development into these experiences. Employers should collaborate with colleges and universities to provide high-quality work experiences that help students build their resumes, generate networking opportunities, and develop career-relevant skills. Work designed for students should be flexible to accommodate their academic obligations and extracurricular activities. Employers can benefit from the innovative energy that students bring to the workplace while contributing to their early career development. Employers and higher education institutions should work together to build models that best serve students, higher education, and employers.

#SummerInternships #PaidInternships #AccessToOpportunities #Inequality #HigherEducation #CareerDevelopment

https://fortune.com/2024/04/19/summer-internships-broken-students-jobs-summer-education-careers/


Luxury brands have a new headache in China: Stingy shoppers are returning their goods, erasing up to 75% of their sales value
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Luxury brands in China are facing a significant challenge as stingy shoppers are returning their goods, resulting in up to 75% of their sales value being erased. This trend of high returns, well above the global luxury industry average of 20% to 30%, has persisted since China exited Covid Zero more than a year ago. The majority of shoppers on platforms like Tmall are middle class, who are now seeking discounts or shifting away from pricier purchases due to the country's ongoing economic slowdown. The trend has worsened in the first quarter of this year, with return and cancellation rates for luxury brands on Tmall increasing. Shoppers are increasingly requesting returns and cancellations before their products are even shipped, taking advantage of promotional campaigns that offer discounts. This has artificially inflated initial sales figures. The weakening consumer sentiment has already affected some global luxury brands, with slower sales growth reported by LVMH and a decline in China sales for Kering's Gucci. However, luxury brands at the highest end, such as Hermes, Chanel, and Dior, have limited their reliance on e-commerce channels and sales campaigns, focusing on cultivating wealthier customers. Online orders accounted for 42% of China's total high-end market revenue last year. E-commerce platforms in China have made returns and refunds easier, allowing customers to return purchases with no reason given within seven days. Despite the challenges, premium brands cannot afford to walk away from China's e-commerce platforms and have been investing in concierge services and private sales to build long-term relationships with wealthy customers. Bain & Co. predicts that China's luxury sales will slow to the mid-single-digits this year, primarily driven by high-net-worth individuals. Luxury brands need to refine their strategies for the Chinese market and focus on very important customers.

#LuxuryBrands #China #Shoppers #SalesReturns #EcommercePlatforms

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/04/17/luxury-brands-new-headache-china-stingy-shoppers-returning-their-goods-75-sales-volume/


Jamie Dimon says he feels tremendous pressure to guard over the economy and make society better
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Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, feels pressure to do good for his country. He wants to make sure he’s doing good for his nation as a whole and considers it part of his role to improve the lives of U.S. citizens. Dimon also has opinions on social and economic policy, such as measuring schools on job occupancy instead of college admission rates and taxing the rich more to support the poor. He believes Washington faces a global market "rebellion" if it doesn’t address its $34 trillion national debt. Dimon forms his outlooks by talking to everyone and keeping an open mind. He prioritizes his role as a father and grandfather and enjoys spending time with his family. Dimon has a strict divide between work and family and believes in the importance of love in parenting. He also revealed that his kids have grown up and they enjoy traveling together, listening to music, barbecuing, and drinking wine.

https://fortune.com/2024/04/18/jamie-dimon-pressure-good-job-for-country-family-first/


After a failed Linux backdoor attempt grabs headlines, open-source leaders warn of more attacks
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A failed Linux backdoor attempt was discovered in XZ Utils, a data-compression toolkit used in many Linux operating systems. The backdoor could have enabled a major cyberattack on corporate servers. The identity of the culprit, known as 'Jia Tan,' remains unknown. Open-source leaders have warned that this incident is likely not a one-off and have called on maintainers of open-source projects to be alert for social engineering takeover attempts. There have been recent attempts to persuade the OpenJS Foundation to grant administrative access to a popular JavaScript project, similar to the tactics used by Jia Tan. Experts believe that many more attempts to infiltrate open-source projects are already underway. The vulnerability of open-source projects, which are often underfunded and run by a small group of maintainers, makes them susceptible to social engineering attacks. Open-source leaders advise maintainers to be cautious and pay attention to interactions that create self-doubt or feelings of inadequacy, as these may be signs of a social engineering attack.

https://fortune.com/2024/04/16/xz-utils-open-source-linux-javascript-vulnerabilities-social-engineering/


United took a $200 million hit from Boeing 737 MAX 9 grounding, driving it to a quarterly loss
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United Airlines reported a $200 million impact after being forced to ground its Boeing 737 MAX 9 fleet for three weeks due to a door plug ripping off an Alaska Airlines jet in January. As a result, United asked its pilots to take unpaid time off. The company also announced changes to its long-term fleet strategy, converting a portion of Boeing MAX 10 orders to MAX 9 from 2025 to 2027. United reported a net loss of $124 million for the first quarter, compared to $194 million during the same quarter in 2023. The airline sources nearly all of its aircraft and parts from Boeing or Airbus. The grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX 9 fleet has impacted United's operations, financial position, and cash flows. United's long-term fleet strategy, known as United Next, has been disrupted by the Boeing incidents. The plan involved exercising options to buy Boeing 787-9 and A321 neo aircraft, with the goal of replacing older, smaller jets and regional jets with larger, more fuel-efficient planes. However, delays in Boeing's deliveries and supply chain issues have led United to reduce the number of aircraft it expects to receive. United now has letters of intent to lease 35 new Airbus A321s in 2026 and 2027.

#UnitedAirlines #Boeing #737Max9 #Grounding #QuarterlyLoss

https://fortune.com/2024/04/16/united-hit-boeing-grounding-quarterly-loss-200-million/


The U.S. economy is looking red hot this year while China is showing signs of fatigue, top economists say
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The U.S. economy is projected to grow 2.7% this year, double the rate of the next closest country in the G7. China's growth is projected to slow to 4.6% for the year. China's real estate crisis could exacerbate its economic problems. The U.S. performance in the years to come is uncertain due to still-elevated inflation numbers. The IMF and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell express concerns about inflation. The U.S. economy reflects strong demand factors and a fiscal stance that is out of line with long-term fiscal sustainability.

#UsEconomy #ChinaEconomy #EconomicGrowth #Imf #Inflation #RealEstateCrisis

https://fortune.com/2024/04/16/us-economy-vs-china-growth-imf-world-economic-outlook-real-estate-inflation/


Some ex-TikTok employees say the social media service worked closely with its China-based parent despite claims of independence
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Several former TikTok employees have claimed that the social media service worked closely with its China-based parent company, ByteDance, despite claims of independence. The ex-employees allege that TikTok's operations were intertwined with ByteDance during their tenures, contradicting the company's assertions of independence. They also claim that TikTok shared user data with ByteDance, including names, email addresses, IP addresses, and demographic information. The allegations raise concerns about the potential for the Chinese government to access and misuse user data collected by TikTok. Cybersecurity experts differ on the significance of the alleged data sharing, with some expressing concern about the potential for targeted attacks and others dismissing the claims as paranoia. The House of Representatives has voted to ban TikTok unless ByteDance sells the app to a non-Chinese company, but the Senate has yet to decide its next step. TikTok has denied the allegations, calling them unfounded and asserting that they are spread by disgruntled ex-employees with clear motives and agendas.

#Tiktok #Bytedance #DataSharing #China #UserData

https://fortune.com/2024/04/15/tiktok-china-data-sharing-bytedance-project-texas/


Jamie Dimon cashes out more JPMorgan stock, bringing his total share sales this year to $183 million
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Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has sold $32.8 million in the bank's stock, bringing his total share sales this year to nearly $183 million. This is the second time Dimon has sold JPMorgan stock since becoming CEO in 2005. In February, he sold over 800,000 shares worth $150 million. Dimon and his family planned to sell 1 million shares of JPMorgan for financial diversification and tax planning purposes. As of last year, Dimon held 8.6 million shares of JPMorgan stock. The share price was $182.89 at the time of the article. Another high-profile executive at JPMorgan, global chief information officer Lori Beer, also sold stock recently. In an earnings announcement, JPMorgan reported first-quarter profits of $13.4 billion. Dimon mentioned that the company's capital is abundant, leading to an increase in the dividend.

#JamieDimon #JpmorganChase #StockSales

https://fortune.com/2024/04/15/jamie-dimon-cashes-out-jpmorgan-stock-million/


Here's what Wall Street expects from financial markets after Iran's attack on Israel
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Financial markets will face fresh volatility as investors weigh the risk of a strike and counter-strike cycle following Iran's attack on Israel. Many expect oil prices to surpass $100 a barrel and anticipate a flight to safe-haven assets such as Treasuries, gold, and the dollar. Bitcoin initially dropped 9% but recovered to trade near $64,000. Stock markets in Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar posted modest losses. The conflict in the Middle East could disrupt tanker shipments from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts suggest that the reaction of Israel and the US, as well as the escalation or de-escalation of the situation, will determine market impact. Investors and analysts are cautious, expecting risk assets to trade lower and seeking opportunities to buy at lower prices. The geopolitical situation will take precedence over central bank actions and the strong US economy in the coming days. The market impact may extend beyond the Middle East, affecting global inflation outlook and energy prices. The reaction of Israel and Iran will be crucial in determining the duration of the market rally or stall. The situation in the Middle East may influence the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the decisions of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Traders will be monitoring the bond market for the impact of more expensive energy bills on inflation fears. Gold and the US dollar have seen increased demand as safe-haven assets. The market may see a rotation in favor of the US dollar. The events in the Middle East may lead to a more cautious approach to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The first rate cut is expected in September. The ECB and BOE are expected to cut rates in June, assuming energy prices remain stable. The market is uncertain, and the impact will depend on the reaction of Israel, the US, and Iran.

#WallStreet #FinancialMarkets #Iran #Israel #OilPrices #SafehavenAssets #Bitcoin #StockMarkets #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #Inflation #InterestRates #Treasuries #Gold #Dollar #EnergyPrices #TankerShipments #FederalReserve #EuropeanCentralBank #BankOfEngland

https://fortune.com/2024/04/14/iran-israel-conflict-wall-street-outlook-financial-markets-stocks-oil-prices-bonds/


Americans fear the end: Economic collapse looms largest on the nation’s mind, potentially costing Biden the presidency
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A poll by Ipsos' Consumer Tracker reveals that a third (33%) of Americans fear the end of the U.S. will be the result of a total economic collapse. Other fears include World War III (25%), climate change (19%), another pandemic (12%), and killer robots (2%). Republicans are more concerned about economic turmoil (48%) compared to Democrats (22%) and independents (37%). President Biden's success in the next seven months will depend on the economy's performance and inflationary pressure easing. The U.S. economy is stronger than it may feel to many Americans, but people are still feeling down due to the pandemic and looming recessions. Another concern is the possibility of another worldwide war, which is a concern for 25% of Americans. The next president will have to address these crises and anxieties, including the cost of groceries and less-apparent problems like killer robots.

#EconomicCollapse #UsPresidency #Fears #IpsosPoll

https://fortune.com/2024/04/12/american-armageddon-economic-collapse-biden-presidency-ipsos-poll/


Jamie Dimon says stagflation is real estate’s worst-case scenario: ‘That will filter through the whole economy in a way that people haven’t really experienced since 2010’
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Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns of the possibility of a moderate recession and stagflation in the real estate industry. He highlights that rising interest rates due to persistent inflation could lead to a devaluation of assets by 20%. Dimon explains that if interest rates rise due to a strong economy, it may not be bad for real estate as hiring would increase. However, if stagflation occurs, it would have a negative impact on vacancies, company cutbacks, and leases, affecting the entire economy. He compares this scenario to the one experienced in 2010 after the Global Financial Crisis.

#JamieDimon #JpmorganChase #Recession #Stagflation #RealEstate #InterestRates #Inflation #Economy

https://fortune.com/2024/04/12/jamie-dimon-stagflation-real-estate-worst-case-scenario-worst-for-economy-since-2010/


Millennial boss of OpenAI challenger says AGI predictions driven by 'very religious' ideals
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Arthur Mensch, CEO of Mistral AI, a French challenger to OpenAI, believes that the predictions of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) outsmarting humans are driven by a 'very religious' fascination. He disagrees with the idea of AGI becoming a reality and sees it as an attempt to create a god-like entity. Mensch also calls for a light touch to regulations in Europe and believes that AI will fundamentally change how workers do their jobs, creating an urgency for retraining. Mistral AI has raised $113 million in funding and aims to be a European champion in the AI space.

#Ai #Agi #Openai #MistralAi #ArthurMensch #ElonMusk #SamAltman #GeoffreyHinton #DemisHassabis #Europe

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/04/12/millennial-boss-french-openai-challenger-tech-ceos-obsession-ai-outsmarting-humans-very-religious-fascination-agi/


Huawei continues its comeback from U.S. sanctions, unveiling a new laptop with a homegrown OS and AI—and an Intel processor
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Huawei, the U.S.-blacklisted Chinese tech giant, unveiled several new products on Thursday, including a new premium AI-capable laptop called MateBook X Pro. The laptop features Intel's Core Ultra 9 processor and uses Huawei's homegrown operating system and AI large language model Pangu. Huawei's return to the premium consumer market is a result of a lifeline from Intel, which received a license from the Trump administration to continue selling laptop processors to the Chinese company. Huawei is also developing its own AI chips and expanding into China's EV sector. The company reported $12 billion in net profit for 2023, a 144% year-on-year increase.

#Huawei #Laptop #Ai #Intel #Processor #HomegrownOs #Pangu #MatebookXPro #UsSanctions #China #EvSector

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/04/12/huawei-comeback-laptop-matebook-x-pro-intel-processor-ai-pangu-llm-china/


87% of CEOs Confident in the U.S. Economy, KPMG Survey
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According to a survey by KPMG, 87% of CEOs are confident in the growth prospects of the U.S. economy. The survey featured responses from 100 CEOs from companies with at least $500 million in revenue. CEOs expressed more confidence in the U.S. economy than in their own companies. The CEOs cited newfound stability, a strong labor market, and decreased inflation as factors contributing to their optimism. They also expect to increase their organization's headcount and are leveraging generative AI to fill workforce gaps. However, geopolitical disruptions and upcoming elections are seen as potential threats to the economy.

#Ceo #UsEconomy #Kpmg #Survey #Confidence #LaborMarket #Inflation #Headcount #Ai #Geopolitics #Elections

https://fortune.com/2024/04/11/us-economy-recession-ceo-inflation-consumer-job-market-ai-executive/


Jamie Dimon, Larry Fink, Jeff Bezos and Jerome Powell dined on salmon and ribeye at White House dinner with other business and world leaders
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Jamie Dimon, Larry Fink, Jeff Bezos, and Jerome Powell attended a White House dinner honoring Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The dinner aimed to strengthen security and economic ties between the US and Japan. Other notable attendees included Tim Cook, Lisa Jackson, Jon Gray, Neil Bluhm, Arvind Krishna, Masayoshi Son, Ken Kobayashi, Brad Smith, Sanjay Mehrotra, Megan Myungwon Lee, Mark Walter, David McCall, Shawn Fain, Gary Cohn, Albert Bourla, Ted Colbert, David Goeckeler, Robert De Niro, Kristi Yamaguchi, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Janet Yellen, Jay Powell, Kathy Hochul, and Cecile Richards. The dinner featured a three-course meal with house-cured salmon and dry-aged ribeye steak, paired with wines from Washington state and Oregon. The event focused on defense issues and initiatives to strengthen partnerships and investment in technology. The state dinner for Kishida is the fifth of Biden's presidency.

#JamieDimon #LarryFink #JeffBezos #JeromePowell #WhiteHouse #Dinner #JapanesePrimeMinister #FumioKishida #Security #EconomicTies #TimCook #LisaJackson #JonGray #NeilBluhm #ArvindKrishna #MasayoshiSon #KenKobayashi #BradSmith #SanjayMehrotra #MeganMyungwonLee #MarkWalter #DavidMccall #ShawnFain #GaryCohn #AlbertBourla #TedColbert #DavidGoeckeler #RobertDeNiro #KristiYamaguchi #BillClinton #HillaryClinton #JanetYellen #JayPowell #KathyHochul #CecileRichards

https://fortune.com/2024/04/10/dimon-fink-bezos-jerome-powell-dined/


Small business optimism just hit an 11-year low. 'Will depressed small business owners depress the economy?'
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The National Federation of Independent Business's (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index fell to 88.5 in March, the lowest level since December 2012. Small businesses employed 61.6 million Americans in 2023 and generate roughly 45% of U.S. economic activity. Small business owners are concerned about inflation, high labor and input costs, and difficulty finding talent. However, the details of the NFIB's survey suggest that the economy is running hot, not cooling rapidly. The net percentage of small business owners expecting higher sales volumes fell to a net negative 18% in March. Despite the pessimism, economist Ed Yardeni believes the U.S. will avoid a recession in 2024 and sees a 'Roaring 2020's' economy with fading inflation and new technologies boosting the economy and markets.

#SmallBusiness #Optimism #Economy #Inflation #LaborMarket

https://fortune.com/2024/04/10/small-business-optimism-low-inflation-recession-ed-yardeni/


El Paso is at the epicenter of America’s immigration crisis–but the border holdups are causing a much bigger supply chain nightmare
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El Paso is facing challenges due to the immigration crisis and border holdups, which are causing significant disruptions to the supply chain. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) reassigning rail inspector agents to process migrants has resulted in delays in processing paperwork for railcars and trucks, adding nearly $4 million to shipping costs for every 10-minute delay. The closure of the rail gateway at Eagle Pass costs an estimated $2.32 million per day, and the rail shutdowns at Eagle Pass and El Paso last winter caused a $200 million loss for the U.S. economy. The border crisis has also impacted routine border crossings, leading to disruptions in delivery schedules, increased costs for truckers and trainmen, and higher prices for consumers. El Paso, a major hub for U.S.-Mexico trade, is home to 2.5 million people and is the fifth largest manufacturing center in the Western Hemisphere. The current border crisis is threatening the city's economic growth and ability to attract new businesses. The article emphasizes the need for serious political attention and investment in El Paso to address the immigration debate and support the local economy.

#ElPaso #ImmigrationCrisis #SupplyChain #BorderHoldups #ShippingCosts #EconomicImpact #UsmexicoTrade

https://fortune.com/2024/04/10/el-paso-epicenter-america-immigration-crisis-border-holdups-supply-chain-nightmare-inflation-politics-economy/


You think you earned your raise and you think inflation is unfair: New economic paper sums up Biden’s dilemma
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Despite the economy performing well, Americans are pessimistic about it. Inflation remains a top concern for voters, with many blaming the government for it. A new study reveals that people attribute their pay increases to job performance rather than inflation. Only half of the respondents could correctly define inflation. There is a disconnect between the general public and economists in understanding economic concepts. Americans are more worried about inflation than ever, which poses a challenge for the Biden administration. The top issue facing the nation, according to a poll, is inflation/prices. The study suggests that reelection may depend on the 10% of respondents who blame 'the system.'

#Economy #Inflation #JoeBiden #Poll #Study

https://fortune.com/2024/04/09/why-economy-negative-sentiment-inflation-joe-biden/


These 5 misconceptions about China's slowing economy could lead to U.S. complacency, expert warns
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China's economy is suffering from slowing growth, a real estate crisis, high youth unemployment, and U.S. restrictions on key technologies. However, a top China expert warns against pessimism, stating that China is likely to expand at twice the rate of the United States in the years ahead. The expert points out five misconceptions about China's economy: 1) China is no longer gaining ground on the U.S. economy, but its GDP is expected to surpass that of the U.S. in about a decade; 2) Income, spending, and consumer confidence in China are not weak, with real per capita income rising 6% last year; 3) Deflation in China is not entrenched, as core prices rose 0.7% last year; 4) Lower property investment is not a major concern, as real estate investment fell by only 20% and completions expanded in 2023; 5) Chinese entrepreneurs are not fleeing the country, as private investment rose almost 10% last year and the number of family businesses grew. The expert warns that exaggerating China's problems could lead to complacency in the face of the challenges China presents to the West, particularly the United States.

#China #Economy #Us #Misconceptions #Complacency

https://fortune.com/2024/04/07/china-economy-outlook-gdp-growth-us-trade-investment-real-estate/


Why the cost of training AI could soon become too much to bear
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The cost of training the most advanced AI models may soon be too much to bear. OpenAI's GPT-3, which had 175 million parameters, cost over $4.6 million to train. GPT-4, released a year ago, has an estimated 1.8 trillion parameters and a training cost of around $100 million. Experts forecast exponential cost growth in training AI models, with the amount of computational power needed doubling roughly every six months. The hardware cost of training one new frontier AI model could theoretically surpass the entire gross domestic product of the U.S. around the mid-2030s. The availability of training data, expanding data centers, and energy consumption are potential limiting factors. However, smaller, fine-tuned models can outperform large models like GPT-4 in specific use cases. An open-source approach and collaborative work can help address cost issues.

https://fortune.com/2024/04/04/ai-training-costs-how-much-is-too-much-openai-gpt-anthropic-microsoft/


Here’s why it’s taking you so long to land that new job
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According to ZipRecruiter's latest Survey of New Hires, it's taking longer for workers to find new jobs and fewer new hires are offered signing bonuses. Respondents also reported being less satisfied with their job hunt experience compared to the previous quarter. Just 46% of respondents were able to find their new role within a month, down from 60% in the previous quarter. The job search experience was characterized as positive by only 58% of respondents, a 10% drop from the previous month. However, the first quarter of 2024 saw a historic high in the share of workers who received counteroffers and the share of workers who reported job openings. The recruiting landscape is shifting, with businesses increasingly seeking out specific individuals rather than posting job descriptions. AI is being used by both job seekers and recruiters, with over half of job seekers admitting to using generative AI for help on the job hunt. AI implementation in the job application stage can lead to a less draining job hunt. Despite concerns about AI's impact on livelihoods, AI has been adopted by successful job seekers and new hires for job search and daily work tasks. AI can be effective in getting people jobs, with someone getting hired on Indeed every three seconds.

https://fortune.com/2024/04/03/how-long-it-takes-to-get-new-job-ai-ziprecruiter-new-hires-survey/


Elon Musk’s X names new head of safety after position was open for 9 months
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Elon Musk’s X, formerly known as Twitter, has appointed Kylie McRoberts as the new head of safety after the position was vacant for 9 months. Yale Cohen, previously from Publicis Media, will become the head of brand safety and advertiser solutions. The previous executive, Ella Irwin, left the company in June 2023, shortly after Musk criticized the platform's handling of posts about transgender topics. X has faced concerns about content moderation, spread of misinformation, and hate speech under Musk's ownership. Several big-name advertisers, including IBM and NBCUniversal, stopped advertising on X after their ads were found alongside material praising Nazis. X has also attempted to sue those who documented hate speech on the platform. A federal judge dismissed the suit against the non-profit Center for Countering Digital Hate. X's revenue mainly comes from advertising. The appointments come as X tries to win back big brands and address content moderation issues.

#ElonMusk #X #Safety #Twitter #ContentModeration #HateSpeech #Advertising

https://fortune.com/2024/04/03/elon-musk-x-names-new-head-safety-twitter-hate-speech/


It's a 'very long road ahead' to rebuild collapsed Baltimore bridge, Maryland governor says, despite Feds' $60 billion in aid
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Maryland Governor Wes Moore warns of a 'very long road ahead' to recover from the loss of Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge despite $60 million in immediate federal aid. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is moving the largest crane on the Eastern coast to remove the wreckage of the bridge. The state is grateful for the federal funds and support. The governor promises that the best minds are working on plans to clear the debris, move the cargo ship that rammed into the bridge, recover the bodies of the four missing workers, and investigate the cause of the collapse. The bridge collapse has disrupted port operations and will cause shipping delays. The governors of New York and New Jersey have offered to take on cargo shipments to minimize supply chain problems. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has not provided a timeline for reopening the port and rebuilding the bridge. The bridge collapse was caused by a cargo ship striking a support pillar, resulting in extensive damage and the loss of life.

#Baltimore #BridgeCollapse #FederalAid #Recovery #CargoShip #PortDisruption #ShippingDelays

https://fortune.com/2024/03/29/baltimore-bridge-rebuild-60-billion-federal-governmen/


Microsoft knows you love tricking its AI chatbots into doing weird stuff and it’s designing ‘prompt shields’ to stop you
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Microsoft is developing new safety features for Azure AI Studio to prevent people from tricking AI chatbots. The features include 'prompt shields' to detect and block deliberate attempts to make an AI model behave in an unintended way. Microsoft is also addressing 'indirect prompt injections' where hackers insert malicious instructions into the data a model is trained on. The company aims to boost trust in its generative AI tools and is rolling out a feature that alerts users when a model generates erroneous responses. Microsoft is OpenAI's largest investor and is committed to deploying AI safely.

#Microsoft #AiChatbots #AzureAiStudio #PromptShields #GenerativeAi #Openai

https://fortune.com/2024/03/29/microsoft-openai-chatbots-prompt-shields-safety-features-user-tricks/


Janet Yellen says China's rapid green energy production is creating unfair competition that will hurt American workers and distort global prices
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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen criticizes China's rapid production of green energy, including solar energy, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries, calling it unfair competition that distorts global prices and hurts American firms and workers. Yellen plans to address this issue during her upcoming trip to China and will urge Chinese counterparts to take necessary steps. China is the dominant player in batteries for electric vehicles and has a rapidly expanding auto industry. Yellen's remarks come as China files a World Trade Organization complaint against the US over discriminatory requirements for electric vehicle subsidies. Yellen warns that Chinese government support in industries like steel and aluminum has led to overinvestment and excess capacity, forcing industry in the rest of the world to contract. Yellen's criticism contrasts with Chinese leader Xi Jinping's call for closer trade ties with the US. Yellen's speech highlights concerns expressed by government counterparts and the global business community. The article also mentions the reopening of a solar cell manufacturing facility in Georgia due to incentives provided by the Democrats' Inflation Reduction Act.

#JanetYellen #China #GreenEnergy #UnfairCompetition #GlobalPrices #AmericanWorkers #SolarEnergy #ElectricVehicles #LithiumionBatteries #WorldTradeOrganization #SteelIndustry #AluminumIndustry #XiJinping

https://fortune.com/2024/03/27/janet-yellen-china-evs-distorts-global-prices-green-manufacturing/


AI 'apocalypse' could wipe out 8 million jobs in the U.K., and women and Gen Z are most at risk
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As many as 8 million UK workers are at risk of losing their jobs to artificial intelligence (AI) with current government policy, according to the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). AI already impacts 11% of tasks done by UK staff, a figure that could rise to almost 60% if firms integrate the technology more deeply. Part-time, entry-level, and back-office jobs such as customer service are most at risk, but higher-paying work will increasingly be affected. The IPPR report highlights the challenges facing the government as it bets on AI to boost productivity. The government's policy will determine whether AI adoption leads to job losses or economic growth. Without any policy changes, AI is estimated to wipe out 8 million jobs in the UK. However, the technology could add as much as £306 billion per year to the UK economy without any job losses in the best-case scenario, depending on government policy. Women and Gen Zers are most at risk of being displaced by AI, as women are disproportionately employed in tasks most impacted by the technology, and companies may rely more on AI for entry-level tasks instead of hiring graduates. The IPPR recommends developing an industrial AI strategy to support job transitions and the distribution of automation gains across the economy. The government should also provide fiscal incentives to augment jobs, make regulatory changes, and support green jobs that are less prone to automation. The UK lags behind other countries in AI skills, and fewer than half of UK businesses are investing in up-skilling their workers. The Department for Science, Innovation, and Technology called the research 'hugely speculative' and stated that AI already contributes more than £3.7 billion to the UK economy annually.

#Ai #JobLosses #Uk #Women #GenZ

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/03/27/ai-apocalypse-could-wipe-out-8-million-jobs-in-the-u-k-women-and-gen-z-are-most-at-risk/


Google’s former Andys—Conrad and Harrison—reunited at VC firm S32, talk AI
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Dr. Andy Conrad and Andy Harrison, both former employees of Google, have reunited at VC firm S32. Conrad, known for starting Alphabet's life sciences organization Verily, joined S32 because Verily had grown to a level that required a different type of intention. Harrison, the CEO and general partner of S32, recruited Conrad to the firm. The two have a distinct point of view on AI due to their Google background. They believe AI is currently in the product phase and hope for a future phase of scale and impact. S32's portfolio includes AI-focused companies such as Cohere, Scale AI, Inworld AI, and Phaidra. Conrad and Harrison emphasize the importance of bringing the right humans together to advance AI. They believe that an increasingly AI-ified world will still require human expertise and collaboration. S32 is optimistic about the potential of AI and believes that with the right tools, a combination of wisdom, humility, and technical know-how, AI can be successful.

#Ai #VentureCapital #Google #S32

https://fortune.com/2024/03/27/google-andy-conrad-harrison-reunited-vc-firm-s32-ai/