MBA Demand is on Fire—But That Might Be Bad News for the U.S. Economy
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Student demand for MBA programs surged by 11% from 2023 to 2024; this increase follows two years of declining applications; full-time MBA programs saw the largest growth, with 80% of two-year programs worldwide experiencing application increases; two-thirds of flexible and online MBA programs also reported upticks; economic uncertainty is driving more unemployed individuals to apply for MBAs; Scott Edinburgh notes a 'vicious cycle' where increased applications lead to more competition; Joy Jones credits global business schools for innovating to meet student needs; Harvard Business School saw an 8% increase in applications but reduced class size by eight students; applications from first-generation students and women increased, with Northwestern University achieving gender parity; students are increasingly interested in AI, data analytics, and sustainability topics; the national unemployment rate is at 4.1%, complicating job searches for young adults.

#Mba #Education #Economy #Applications #BusinessSchools #JobMarket #Ai #DataAnalytics #Sustainability #GenderParity

https://fortune.com/education/articles/mba-application-rise-gmac-trends/


Yellen says world was 'worse off' under Trump-era isolationism
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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen criticized former President Trump's isolationist policies during a speech at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings on October 22, 2024; she stated that the Biden administration's rejection of isolationism has strengthened the U.S. economy; Yellen noted a historic labor market recovery and U.S. economic growth nearly twice as fast as other advanced economies; the IMF upgraded its U.S. economic outlook to 2.8% growth for 2024; Republicans blame the Biden administration for inflation, while voters are divided on Trump vs. Harris for economic issues; Trump proposes heavy tariffs if elected, while Harris favors international cooperation; Yellen praised Biden-Harris initiatives on climate and infrastructure.

#JanetYellen #Trump #Biden #Imf #WorldBank #Economy #Inflation #Tariffs #InternationalRelations #2024Election

https://fortune.com/2024/10/22/yellen-trump-isolationism-worse-off-imf-world-bank/


The relentless stock market rally could pull off another shocker
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The S&P 500 jumped 24% in 2023; 2024 sees a 23% increase so far; Goldman Sachs predicts S&P 500 to hit 6,000 by end of 2024; Jay Hatfield and Sandra Cho also forecast S&P 500 at 6,000; Nassim Nicholas Taleb warns of market complacency and potential collapse; mixed economic signals raise concerns; Fed's rate-cutting cycle began later than expected.

#StockMarket #S&p500 #Economy #FederalReserve #Predictions #Finance #Investing #WallStreet #Recession #AiBoom

https://fortune.com/2024/10/19/stock-market-outlook-sp500-6000-year-end-targets-economy-fed-rate-cuts/


BofA CEO says U.S. economy is the envy of the world—but could lose its power due to national debt
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Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, warns that the U.S. economy, currently at $35.7 trillion in national debt, could lose its global economic status; each American's share of the debt exceeds $105,000; he urges politicians to prioritize debt-to-GDP plans; under Trump, debt increased by $8.4 trillion, while Biden added $4.3 trillion; a CBO report predicts public debt could reach 166% of GDP by 2054; Moynihan emphasizes the need for spending discipline and growth to manage debt; experts have mixed views on the implications of high national debt.

#NationalDebt #Economy #BankOfAmerica #BrianMoynihan #UsPolitics #Debttogdp #FinancialWarning #EconomicGrowth #PublicSpending #FiscalPolicy

https://fortune.com/2024/10/16/bank-of-america-brian-moynihan-national-debt-warning/


Degree requirements are holding back company profits and a roaring economy, experts say
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A job listing requiring a bachelor’s degree eliminates 62% of American adults; 70% of Black Americans and 80% of Hispanic Americans are also excluded. Carrie Varoquiers (Workday), LaFawn Davis (Indeed), and Lisa Gevelber (Google) discussed skills-based hiring at the Fortune Most Powerful Women Summit on October 15, 2024. They argue that hiring should focus on skills rather than degrees, as many jobs can be performed by non-degree holders after basic training. The Google Career Certificate program, launched in 2017, aims to provide pathways to high-demand jobs for those without degrees. Experts like Joseph Fuller (Harvard) and Philip Cohen (University of Maryland) suggest that the necessity of degrees in white-collar jobs is diminishing.

#DegreeRequirements #SkillsbasedHiring #Diversity #Economy #FortuneSummit #Google #Workday #Indeed #Employment #Education

https://fortune.com/2024/10/16/degree-requirements-skills-based-hiring-economy-carrie-varoquiers-lisa-gevelber-lafawn-davis-mpw/


The number of super-rich people is exploding—and it’s raising the bar for what’s considered ‘wealthy’
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The number of ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs) with over $30 million in assets grew from 157,000 in 2016 to 220,000 in 2023, a 28% increase; Elias Ghanem from Capgemini notes UHNWIs focus on wealth growth, while other high-net-worth individuals prioritize wealth preservation; North America saw a 7.3% increase in UHNWIs last year due to economic resilience and government spending initiatives like the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act; Knight Frank's 2024 Wealth Report indicates a global total of over 626,600 UHNWIs, with predictions of a 28% rise in the next four years; $30 million is now seen as a starting point for wealth, with some suggesting $100 million as the new standard; 91% of UHNWIs are interested in passion investments such as luxury real estate and collectibles.

#Wealth #Uhnwis #Capgemini #KnightFrank #Economy #Investment #RealEstate #Entrepreneurship #Inflation #Luxury

https://fortune.com/2024/10/15/ultra-high-net-worth-individuals-capgemini/


Here’s why the gap between Americans’ perception of U.S. economic performance and reality has doubled since 2019, according to economists
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Under Trump, U.S. economy grew 7.4% from Q4 2016 to Q4 2020; under Biden-Harris, it grew 10.6% through Q2 2024, reaching $22.9 trillion; GDP per capita reached $68,088 under Biden-Harris, up from $63,257 under Trump; jobs fell by 2.7 million under Trump, grew by 16.2 million under Biden-Harris; inflation was 7.7% under Trump, 20.3% under Biden-Harris; wages increased by 26.1% under Biden-Harris; 72% of Americans reported doing fine financially, but only 22% thought the national economy was doing well; perception gap has nearly doubled since 2019; cognitive biases like framing effect, confirmation bias, and negativity bias contribute to misperceptions.

#Economy #Perception #Inflation #Jobs #Biden #Trump #CognitiveBias #Statistics #Gdp #Healthcare

https://fortune.com/2024/10/15/gap-american-perception-us-economy-performance-reality-doubled-trump-harris-politics/


No one can agree on what the American dream is anymore—or if it's even realistic
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Donald Trump promises to restore the American dream if elected in November 2024; the definition of the American dream is increasingly debated and seen as unattainable; Gonzalo Schwartz from Archbridge Institute reports rising pessimism about achieving the dream, with 2024 showing the highest skepticism yet; Jamie Dimon warns of a fading hope for the workforce; economic conditions, including stagnant wages and unaffordable housing, contribute to disillusionment; Professor Henrietta Moore emphasizes the importance of engagement in the economy; Pew Research indicates older, wealthier, white individuals are more likely to believe in the dream's existence; 68% of those aged 65+ think the dream is possible, while only 39% of 18-29 year-olds agree; Boomers and Millennials share similar goals for the dream but differ in relevance and values; a CBO report highlights wealth inequality, with the bottom 50% holding just 6% of assets; societal transformation is necessary to address climate change and inequality.

#AmericanDream #DonaldTrump #PewResearch #Economy #WealthInequality #HousingMarket #GenerationalDifferences #Engagement #SocietalTransformation #Disillusionment

https://fortune.com/2024/10/12/american-dream-trump-values/


Jamie Dimon says global politics are 'treacherous and getting worse'—so he's preparing for anything
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Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns that geopolitical tensions are worsening, citing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East as major threats to the economy; he estimates one million casualties from Russia's invasion of Ukraine since February 2022, with over 19,000 children displaced; Dimon labels Russia, Iran, and North Korea as an 'evil axis'; JPMorgan reported $42.7 billion in revenue for Q3 2024, a 7% increase, but faced a 31% decline in net income in consumer banking; he emphasizes the need to address America's $35.7 trillion national debt to maintain economic and military power; Dimon advocates for preparedness in uncertain times, referencing the military strategy 'OODA loop' for decision-making.

#JamieDimon #Jpmorgan #Geopolitics #Economy #Ukraine #Iran #NorthKorea #NationalDebt #OodaLoop #FinancialResults

https://fortune.com/2024/10/11/jamie-dimon-global-politics-worsening-preparing-economics/


Gen X was supposed to be the economy's safety net—now they're the 'struggling middle child' balancing retirement and paying for adult children
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Gen X, once seen as the economy's dependable consumers, are now struggling to balance retirement savings and supporting adult children; Bank of America Institute research shows Gen X spending is down 2% year-on-year as of August 2024; Joe Wadford, economist, notes Gen X households made up 27% of U.S. households but contributed 33% of consumer spending in 2022; Gen X is investing 40% more than other generations for retirement; Phil LeClare, a 53-year-old PR agency owner, exemplifies this shift in financial priorities, focusing on savings and mindful spending; the trend marks a significant change from their previous spending habits.

#GenX #PersonalFinance #Retirement #ConsumerSpending #BankOfAmerica #Economy #Investing #FinancialPriorities #AdultChildren #Savings

https://fortune.com/2024/10/05/gen-x-struggling-middle-child-parenting-retirement-savings/


Trump advisor proposes a shadow Fed chair, but Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni thinks it’s a recipe for disaster
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Scott Bessent, Trump economic advisor, suggests Congress approve a Fed chair-designate over a year before Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026; this would create a shadow Fed chair, sidelining Powell; Bessent is on the shortlist for Treasury Secretary; Trump had a contentious relationship with Powell, often criticizing him publicly; Ed Yardeni calls the shadow chair idea 'terrible,' warning it would create market confusion; compares potential U.S. policy to Turkey under Erdogan, where central bank independence was undermined; Fed's credibility has suffered after misjudging inflation as transitory; Powell has recently been praised for reducing inflation from over 9% to closer to 2%.

#Trump #FederalReserve #JeromePowell #ScottBessent #EdYardeni #Economy #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #Politics #TreasurySecretary

https://fortune.com/2024/10/10/donald-trump-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-central-bank-independence/


TikTok’s parent launched a web scraper that's gobbling up the world’s online data 25-times faster than OpenAI
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ByteDance, TikTok's parent company, launched a web scraper named Bytespider in April 2023; Bytespider scrapes data 25 times faster than OpenAI's GPTbot and 3,000 times faster than Anthropic's ClaudeBot; aggressive scraping activity has increased over the last six weeks; ByteDance is under pressure to sell TikTok or shut it down due to U.S. national security concerns; Bytespider does not respect robots.txt, raising copyright infringement issues; ByteDance aims to improve TikTok's search function with a new LLM; TikTok recently updated its search function to allow real-time keyword searches for advertisers.

#Bytedance #Tiktok #WebScraping #Ai #Bytespider #Gptbot #Claudebot #NationalSecurity #Copyright #SearchFunction

https://fortune.com/2024/10/03/bytedance-tiktok-bytespider-scraper-bot/


Bitcoin jumps over $62,000 on sparkling jobs report
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Bitcoin rose 3% on October 4, 2024, surpassing $62,000 due to a better-than-expected jobs report; U.S. created 254,000 jobs in September, exceeding the predicted 140,000; unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in August; Bitcoin had previously dropped to around $60,000 earlier in the week; analysts express mixed views on long-term price impact; Omid Malekan from Columbia Business School highlights uncertainty due to macroeconomic factors and upcoming elections; Bitcoin increased 124% over the past year, hitting an all-time high of $72,000 in March.

#Bitcoin #JobsReport #Cryptocurrency #Economy #OmidMalekan #UsJobs #Unemployment #MarketAnalysis #CryptoPrices #Fortune

https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/04/bitcoin-jumps-over-62000-on-sparkling-jobs-repor/


Here’s what’s impacted as the dockworker strike halts US ports
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Dockworkers at 14 major ports on the East Coast and Gulf region have gone on strike after the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) failed to reach a contract agreement with port ownership; approximately 45,000 ILA members are involved; the strike could cost the U.S. economy $4.5 billion per day according to JP Morgan; the shutdown affects 75% of the U.S. banana imports and over half of coffee, tea, beverages, and medical equipment supplies; ILA demands a 77% pay raise and protections against automation; the last strike by ILA was in 1977; USMX claims their offer includes a nearly 50% wage increase; analysts predict President Biden may eventually invoke the Taft-Hartley act to end the strike; the strike began on October 3, 2024.

#Dockworkers #Strike #Ila #Usmx #Economy #Shipping #SupplyChain #LaborDispute #Biden #Ports

https://fortune.com/2024/10/03/dockworkers-strike-ila-usmx-shipping/


Port strike hits billions in trade for importers like Walmart
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Nearly 50,000 union longshoremen went on strike at midnight on October 1, 2024, affecting 14 major ports from Maine to Texas, including the Port of New York and New Jersey. The strike could cost the U.S. economy billions daily, with significant impacts on food and automobile industries. Walmart, Ikea, and Samsung are among the hardest hit, with these companies accounting for 125,000 shipping containers in the past year. The ports handle $3 trillion in international trade annually. The International Longshoremen's Association is demanding a 77% pay increase, while the Maritime Alliance offered a 50% wage increase over six years. A one-week strike could cost $2.1 billion for longshoremen and the U.S. Maritime Alliance. Experts warn that if the strike lasts over a month, it could lead to a recession.

#PortStrike #Walmart #Economy #Trade #Longshoremen #LaborDispute #Shipping #Imports #Recession #FoodIndustry

https://fortune.com/2024/10/01/port-strike-walmart-lg-samsung/


We keep celebrating low unemployment—but data shows jobs and economic activity have been shifting to big business
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The U.S. labor market has cooled down since November 2023; small business employment growth has declined for 11 of the last 18 months; small businesses lost jobs for six consecutive months in 2024, with slight increases in July and flat growth in August; small businesses account for 77% of all U.S. employers; at peak employment in Q4 2022, small businesses employed over 13.08 million people; from Q1 2023 to Q4 2023, there were two quarters of decline and two quarters of flat growth; total decline of small business jobs from Q1 2024 to Q3 2024 was 47,200 jobs (-0.36%); economic activity is shifting from small to large businesses; small businesses face unprecedented challenges compared to past entrepreneurs; average revenues for small businesses increased despite employment contraction; policymakers are urged to develop targeted policies to support small businesses.

#Economy #SmallBusiness #Employment #Policy #Innovation #Covid19 #LaborMarket #BusinessGrowth #EconomicActivity #Fortune500

https://fortune.com/2024/09/25/low-unemployment-data-jobs-economy-shift-big-business/


Trump threatens tractor maker John Deere with 200% import tariff if it moves manufacturing to Mexico
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Donald Trump, during a campaign event on September 23, 2024, in Smithton, Pennsylvania, threatened John Deere with a 200% import tariff if the company moves manufacturing to Mexico. John Deere announced in June 2024 plans to relocate skid steer and track loader manufacturing to Mexico. Trump criticized Vice President Kamala Harris for her energy policies and emphasized the need for tariffs to protect American jobs. He expressed concerns about the loss of family farms and the influence of China on U.S. agriculture. Trump also made light-hearted comments during the event, contrasting with his usual combative style at rallies. He urged supporters to vote and dismissed early voting as a potential for fraud. The event was part of his strategy to appeal to working-class voters, while Harris' campaign criticized Trump's past policies as harmful to family farmers.

#Trump #JohnDeere #Tariffs #Manufacturing #Politics #Harris #Pennsylvania #China #Farmers #2024Election

https://fortune.com/2024/09/24/trump-tractor-maker-john-deere-200-import-tariff-manufacturing-mexico/


Baltimore bridge collapse 'entirely avoidable': DOJ lawsuit
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The DOJ filed a lawsuit seeking over $100 million against Grace Ocean Private Ltd. and Synergy Marine Group for the March 26 Baltimore bridge collapse caused by the cargo ship Dali. The lawsuit alleges reckless negligence, citing jury-rigged mechanical systems and known electrical issues that led to a power outage before the ship struck the Francis Scott Key Bridge, killing six construction workers. The ship's steering failed due to power loss, and prior blackouts occurred while docked. The DOJ claims the companies ignored safety protocols, leading to excessive vibrations and equipment failures. Attorney General Merrick Garland emphasized that the companies should bear the costs of the disaster, not taxpayers. The case follows the victims' families' intent to file claims against the companies for negligence.

#Baltimore #BridgeCollapse #Doj #Lawsuit #Negligence #Dali #GraceOcean #SynergyMarine #Construction #Safety

https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/baltimore-bridge-collapse-justice-department-doj-lawsuit-dali/


Top market strategist sees ‘nirvana’ after Fed rate cut, new economic data
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The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18, 2024, the first cut since March 2020; initial jobless claims fell to 219,000 for the week ending September 14, the lowest since May; unemployment rolls decreased to 1,829,000 for the week ending September 7; manufacturing surveys show resilience, with the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey turning positive; wage growth stabilized at 3.3% in August, indicating a robust economy; Eric Wallerstein from Yardeni Research describes the situation as 'nirvana' for the economy.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #Economy #JoblessClaims #Manufacturing #Wages #YardeniResearch #MarketStrategy #EconomicData #Resilience

https://fortune.com/2024/09/19/nirvana-markets-fed-rate-cut-jobless-claims-wages-manufacturing/


Citi Wealth chief investment strategist shares tips and predictions ahead of Fed rate cuts
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Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, is expected to announce interest rate cuts after the FOMC meeting on September 18, 2024; Steven Wieting, chief investment strategist at Citi Wealth, predicts a 25 basis point cut is most likely, but a 50 basis point cut is possible; Wieting expects 200 basis points of cuts by mid-2025; he emphasizes that the Fed's decision won't change the market's long-term outlook; Wieting recommends investing in 'quality' stocks and dividend aristocrats for stability; he forecasts 9% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2024; he believes the economy is not in a recession despite some sectors contracting; Wieting warns against timing the market and suggests maintaining a balanced portfolio.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #InvestmentStrategy #CitiWealth #Economy #Stocks #Dividends #MarketPredictions #FinancialAdvice #EarningsGrowth

https://fortune.com/2024/09/17/citi-wealth-chief-investment-strategist-shares-predictions-ahead-of-fed-rate-cuts/


America’s national debt is ballooning—and any real solutions can only be bipartisan
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America's national debt is exceeding defense spending; interest payments on the national debt surpass defense spending; Democratic platform proposes raising taxes on corporations and high earners; top 10% pay over 75% of income taxes; Republicans suggest cutting discretionary spending but not Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security; real solutions require bipartisan efforts; need to define the problem and propose real solutions; reforms needed in Social Security, healthcare, and antitrust policies; a value-added tax could ensure fair contributions; a National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform is necessary; public discussion and engagement on national debt are crucial.

#NationalDebt #Bipartisan #Economy #TaxReform #Healthcare #SocialSecurity #FiscalResponsibility #GovernmentSpending #EconomicGrowth #PolicyReform

https://fortune.com/2024/09/16/america-national-debt-ballooning-real-solutions-bipartisan-economy-finance-politics/


Women of color win big at the 2024 Emmys
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Liza Colón-Zayas became the first Latina to win Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series for The Bear; Anna Sawai won Best Actress in a Drama for Shogun, the first actress of Asian descent to win in that category; John Leguizamo advocated for better roles for Latinos at the Emmys; the event highlighted progress in diversity despite corporate America retreating from DEI initiatives; the 2024 election was a recurring theme during the awards; Candice Bergen reflected on societal changes since her role in Murphy Brown.

#Emmys #WomenOfColor #Diversity #Awards #Hollywood #Inclusion #Television #Progress #Latina #Asian

https://fortune.com/2024/09/16/emmys-2024-winners-women-of-color/


Kamala Harris’s endorsements show Republicans may be paying the price for their newfound anti-business rhetoric
==========

Eighty-eight American business leaders endorsed Kamala Harris for president; this includes 40 former CEOs, indicating caution among current leaders; signers include Larry Summers; Republicans traditionally favored by business face challenges due to recent anti-business rhetoric; historical ties between business and politics show complexity; tech and entertainment industries lean Democratic; personal relationships between executives and Democrats influence endorsements; Republicans need to reassess their business relationships to regain support.

#KamalaHarris #Republicans #BusinessEndorsements #Politics #Fortune500 #LarrySummers #AntibusinessRhetoric #Technology #Entertainment #CorporateRelationships

https://fortune.com/2024/09/12/kamala-harriss-endorsements-republicans-price-anti-business-rhetoric-politics/


The Harris and Trump debate showdown focused on these key economic policies
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The first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump occurred on September 11, 2024. The debate centered on economic issues, with both candidates defending their records. Harris emphasized her middle-class upbringing and proposed an 'opportunity economy' with tax cuts for families and small businesses. Trump promised tax cuts and tariffs on other countries, particularly China, denying claims of a 'Trump sales tax.' Harris criticized Trump's presidency for trade deficits and inflation, while Trump blamed the Biden-Harris administration for high inflation. Harris proposed increasing the child tax credit from $2,000 to $6,000 and a $50,000 tax deduction for small businesses. The debate also included personal attacks, with Trump labeling Harris a Marxist and Harris referencing Trump's wealthy background. Voters will soon weigh in on the debate performance as early ballots are distributed.

#Harris #Trump #Debate #Economy #Taxes #Inflation #2024Election #Politics #Tariffs #ChildTaxCredit

https://fortune.com/2024/09/10/trump-harris-debate-economy/


Mario Draghi says the EU needs €800 billion to rival the U.S. and China
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Mario Draghi, former ECB President, calls for €800 billion ($884 billion) annual investment in the EU; emphasizes need for common bonds to enhance competitiveness against the U.S. and China; warns EU growth is slower than U.S.; suggests investment should increase by 5% of GDP; identifies energy dependency and lack of raw materials as key issues; proposes reforms in competition policy and telecom sector consolidation; highlights need for €500 billion for decarbonization and €100 billion annually for transport from 2031-2050; urges a unified EU response to existential challenges; warns of pushback from Germany and Netherlands on fiscal integration; report delivered on September 10, 2024.

#MarioDraghi #Eu #Investment #Competitiveness #CommonBonds #Decarbonization #Germany #Netherlands #Telecom #Defense

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/09/10/mario-draghi-economy-us-china/


Get ready for a massive stock market rally, if history is any guide
==========

October has historically been the month for significant stock market rallies; Bespoke Investment Group reports 19 out of 61 rallies of 10% or more since WWII began in October; September 2024 saw the S&P 500 experience its worst week in 18 months; Jay Hatfield predicts S&P 500 could reach 6,000, implying 11% upside; contrasting views from Andrew Hollenhorst of Citi Research suggest a recession is imminent due to cooling job market; October through December is typically a strong period for the market; the latest jobs report indicates a growing economy.

#StockMarket #Rally #October #Economy #Recession #S&p500 #BespokeInvestmentGroup #JayHatfield #AndrewHollenhorst #FinancialAnalysis

https://fortune.com/2024/09/08/stock-market-outlook-massive-rally-october-history-rebound-selloff/


China laments 'garbage time of history' as economy comes off peak and growth model hits dead end, expert says
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Chinese citizens express discouragement about the economy, coining the term 'garbage time of history'; Bank of America lowers 2024 growth forecast to 4.8% from 5%; China's global GDP share peaked at 18.3% in 2021, now at 16.9% in 2023; U.S. GDP share is approximately 25%; Logan Wright from Rhodium Group states China's growth model is at a dead end due to credit and investment reliance; Financial system constrains growth; Shift towards advanced manufacturing and consumption needed; Xi Jinping's leadership may not fully grasp economic severity; PDD Holdings reports weak results, losing $50 billion in market value; Overproduction risks lead to potential economic doom loop.

#China #Economy #Growth #XiJinping #BankOfAmerica #RhodiumGroup #PddHoldings #Gdp #FinancialSystem #Overproduction

https://fortune.com/2024/09/08/china-economy-peak-growth-model-dead-end-garbage-time-of-history-xi-jinping/


Russia’s strategy to rely more China’s yuan is backfiring
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After sanctions in 2022, Russia shifted to using China's yuan for international transactions; by June 2024, yuan made up 99.6% of Russia's foreign exchange market. However, top Russian banks are running out of yuan, with Sberbank's CEO, German Gref, stating they cannot lend in yuan due to insufficient coverage. The U.S. expanded sanctions, causing Chinese banks to hesitate in transferring yuan to Russia, leading to liquidity issues. In September 2024, Russian banks raised a record 35 billion yuan from the central bank through swaps, but the central bank advised against relying on yuan loans for long-term funding. A quarter of Russian exporters faced payment issues, and inflation is rising due to military spending prioritization, as noted by Yale's Jeffrey Sonnenfeld.

#Russia #China #Yuan #Sanctions #Economy #Inflation #Putin #Zelensky #Sberbank #Trade

https://fortune.com/2024/09/07/russia-economy-china-yuan-liquidity-shortage-us-sanctions-ukraine-invasion/


Harris must awaken the nation from the 'sleeper effect' at the debate with Trump—and dispel the oft-repeated falsehood that the booming U.S. economy isn’t doing so well
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Vice President Kamala Harris is preparing for a debate with former President Donald Trump on September 6, 2024; Trump is expected to challenge her on economic issues, claiming the Biden administration has caused inflation and economic decline; Yale researchers Carl Hovland and Walter Weiss coined the term 'sleeper effect' in 1951, highlighting how misinformation can persist; Trump falsely claims that under his presidency, the U.S. had the safest border and best economy; Annual encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border averaged 488,164 under Trump, compared to 408,493 under Obama; Inflation peaked at 9.1% under Biden but has since decreased to 2.9%; Trump’s gross new borrowing was $8.8 trillion, while Biden-Harris' was $6.2 trillion; Trump oversaw the largest spending deficit since WWII, while Biden-Harris have reduced deficits; Biden-Harris have created 15.8 million jobs compared to Trump's 4.4 million; Manufacturing jobs increased by 765,000 under Biden-Harris, while 172,000 were lost under Trump; Biden-Harris' Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act allocated over $700 billion for infrastructure; The U.S. is producing record amounts of oil and natural gas under Biden-Harris; The World Bank has revised its growth outlook positively due to U.S. economic strength; Pew Research shows international confidence in Biden-Harris leadership has increased; Goldman Sachs projects GDP growth under Harris, not Trump.

#Harris #Trump #Economy #Debate #Inflation #Jobs #Manufacturing #Infrastructure #Biden #Politics

https://fortune.com/2024/09/06/harris-must-awaken-the-nation-from-the-sleeper-effect-at-the-debate-with-trump-and-dispel-the-oft-repeated-falsehood-that-the-booming-u-s-economy-isnt-doing-so-well/


Trump calls for regulatory bloodbath—asks Musk to lead task force on 'drastic cuts'
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Donald Trump proposed cutting the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21% during a speech at the Economic Club of New York on September 5, 2024; he aims to contrast his economic policies with those of Kamala Harris, who wants to raise the corporate tax rate to 28%; Trump plans to establish a federal audit task force led by Elon Musk to review government expenditures; he pledged to eliminate 10 regulations for every new one; Trump also suggested a 10% tariff on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods; he emphasized the need for domestic energy production and support for emerging industries like AI; a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll indicated that 50% of likely voters trust Trump on the economy compared to 44% for Harris.

#DonaldTrump #ElonMusk #CorporateTax #Regulations #Economy #2024Election #KamalaHarris #FederalAudit #Tariffs #EnergyProduction

https://fortune.com/2024/09/05/trump-calls-for-regulatory-bloodbath-asks-musk-to-lead-task-force-on-drastic-cuts/


Asian chip stocks like TSMC and SK Hynix plunge after Nvidia's record drop in market value
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Asian semiconductor stocks fell sharply, with TSMC down 5.5%, SK Hynix down 9.2%, and Advantest down 10% on September 4, 2024; the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 2.2%, marking the worst decline since August 5; Nvidia lost a record $278.9 billion in market value on September 3, 2024, raising concerns about AI stock valuations; analysts suggest AI stocks may have overshot profit expectations; despite volatility, some investors recommend buying dips, citing strong AI spending; Jung In Yun of Fibonacci Asset Management believes demand for AI will remain robust through mid-2025.

#Semiconductors #Nvidia #Tsmc #SkHynix #StockMarket #Ai #Investments #Asia #Economy #Volatility

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/09/04/asia-chip-stocks-tsmc-sk-hynix-record-nvidia-share-value-drop/


Interest rate cut expectations just keep getting deeper as Powell's 'risk bias' changes
==========

Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, indicates a shift in interest rate policy; current rate is 5.25%, a two-decade high; analysts expect a potential cut of 0.25% to 0.5% in September; JPMorgan forecasts a total cut of 100 bps by year-end; rising unemployment and softening labor demand complicate the Fed's dual mandate of controlling inflation and maximizing employment; Powell's Jackson Hole speech suggests a need for policy adjustment; Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel advocates for immediate cuts to 4% or less; concerns arise that failure to cut rates could lead to recession.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #JeromePowell #Economy #Recession #Employment #Inflation #Jpmorgan #BankOfAmerica #LaborMarket

https://fortune.com/2024/08/29/fed-interest-rate-cut-expectations/


Economy gets a jolt of good news as GDP rises and inflation falls
==========

The U.S. economy grew at a 3% annual pace in Q3 2024, up from a previous estimate of 2.8%; consumer spending rose by 2.9%, while business investment expanded by 7.5%; inflation eased to 2.5% from 3.4% in Q1; corporate profits reached a record $3.425 trillion; the Fed raised interest rates 11 times in 2022 and 2023, reducing inflation from a peak of 9.1% to 2.9%; unemployment rose to 4.3% over four months; Jerome Powell indicates a potential interest rate cut in mid-September.

#Gdp #Inflation #Economy #ConsumerSpending #BusinessInvestment #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Unemployment #CorporateProfits #EconomicGrowth

https://fortune.com/2024/08/29/economy-gdp-growth-profit/


Kamala Harris's housing plan is most aggressive since post-World War II boom, experts say
==========

Kamala Harris's housing plan aims to boost U.S. housing supply significantly; experts Jim Parrott and Mark Zandi claim it is the most aggressive since post-WWII; U.S. needs 3 million more homes, primarily affordable; plan includes $25,000 down payment assistance for first-time buyers; expands Low-Income Housing Tax Credit to increase affordable rentals; tax breaks for builders selling to first-time buyers; new tax credit for renovating unsellable homes; plan costs $125 billion, requiring funding through tax revenue or spending cuts; warns of long-term economic harm from worsening housing crisis; Donald Trump proposes easing regulations to lower housing costs; Republican platform blames high costs on illegal immigration and includes demand- and supply-side measures.

#KamalaHarris #HousingPlan #AffordableHousing #UsPolitics #2024Election #DonaldTrump #HousingCrisis #Economy #TaxPolicy #Construction

https://fortune.com/2024/08/24/kamala-harris-housing-plan-affordable-construction-postwar-supply-boom-donald-trump/


Workers won’t accept less than $81,000 for a new role right now
==========

Workers are unwilling to accept salaries below $81,147 for new roles despite fears of job loss; a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey indicates 4.4% of respondents expect unemployment, matching pandemic levels; tech layoffs, such as Cisco's, contribute to job insecurity; job seekers' reservation wage has increased by nearly $20,000 since March 2020; dissatisfaction with wages and promotion opportunities is rising, especially among women and low-income individuals; nearly 30% of surveyed workers were job hunting in July 2024, the highest since March 2014; the transition rate to new employers reached 7.1%, surpassing levels during The Great Resignation.

#Employment #Salary #JobMarket #Ai #Unemployment #FederalReserve #JobHunting #EconomicTrends #WorkerExpectations #Layoffs

https://fortune.com/2024/08/21/worker-reservation-wage-job-new-york-fed-survey/


U.S. investors are dominating Europe's AI scene—and learning to live with the old continent’s regulators
==========

U.S. investors have significantly increased their presence in Europe's AI sector, with funding growing 10x over the past decade; as of mid-2024, American investors have invested 20x more in European Generative AI than any other country; the Magnificent Seven tech giants engaged in 15 deals with European AI startups last year; 40-50% of late-stage funding in European AI comes from U.S. investors; Microsoft invested $16 million in Mistral, raising concerns about U.S. influence in EU tech; France, Germany, and Italy advocate for laxer AI regulations, influenced by large corporations; U.S. companies must comply with EU regulations like GDPR to enter European markets; lawsuits against Microsoft indicate a shift towards regulating AI in the U.S.; U.S. investors should study European AI companies and their regulatory environments.

#Ai #Investment #Europe #Regulation #Technology #Us #Funding #Microsoft #GenerativeAi #Startups

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/08/22/us-investors-europe-ai-learning-regulators-tech-finance/


A CEO gave employees $2,500 in hazard pay for dealing with vitriol sparked by his pro-Trump email
==========

Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino provided $2,500 hazard pay to 79 customer-service employees due to backlash from a pro-Trump email and social media post. Employees received death threats and abusive messages following the communication. Constantino stated he would repeat the action, emphasizing that sharing political views can lead to significant backlash. He noted the fine line between values and ideology in corporate settings, referencing former AT&T CEO Anne Chow's experience after RBG's death. The article discusses the impact of partisan politics in business and how customers can choose to disengage if they disagree with a company's stance.

#Ceo #HazardPay #Trump #Politics #EmployeeSafety #CustomerService #CorporateValues #Backlash #StickerMule #Constantino

https://fortune.com/2024/08/22/sticker-mule-ceo-hazard-pay-trump/


The yen is finally strengthening. That could be bad for corporate Japan's record profits
==========

Japanese companies in the Topix 500 Index earn 45% of revenue outside Japan; record quarterly profits reached ¥15 trillion ($104 billion) for the quarter ending June 30, 2024, a 9% increase year-on-year; yen traded at an average of ¥156 against the dollar in April-June, 12% lower than the previous year, but has since strengthened to around ¥145; analysts estimate each 1 yen appreciation reduces profits by 0.4-0.6%; concerns about sustainability of earnings due to weak demand in China and potential U.S. recession; companies like Olympus and Mitsubishi Chemical assumed a weaker yen in profit estimates; 64% of Topix companies beat expectations in the last quarter; analysts remain hopeful for a soft landing for the U.S. economy.

#Yen #Japan #CorporateProfits #Economy #Finance #Topix #China #UsEconomy #StockMarket #Earnings

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/08/22/yen-appreciation-hurt-corporate-japan-record-profits-china-earnings-topix-shares/


Countries like Malaysia and Thailand are flocking to join BRICS as a potential ‘counterweight against U.S. economic hegemony’
==========

Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim met India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi on August 20, 2024, in New Delhi; Malaysia and Thailand are seeking to join BRICS, which recently expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE; Over 30 nations have expressed interest in joining BRICS, according to South Africa's foreign minister Naledi Pandor; BRICS aims to represent the Global South, especially post-Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022; Joining BRICS could provide Malaysia with trade deals and investments, while Thailand hopes to boost its economy; Malaysia's GDP per capita is nearly equal to China's; BRICS was founded in 2009 and includes countries that account for about 40% of the world's population and a quarter of global GDP; The New Development Bank, established in 2014, has approved over $32 billion in loans since 2015; Malaysia and Thailand's economies are significantly larger than Ethiopia's and comparable to Iran's and Egypt's; BRICS lacks formal trade agreements and faces geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and India; Countries like Malaysia and Thailand may view BRICS membership as economically beneficial despite potential risks.

#Brics #Malaysia #Thailand #Geopolitics #Economy #Trade #China #India #Us #GlobalSouth

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/08/21/why-do-malaysia-thailand-want-to-join-brics-hedge-china-russia-us/


Trump defends Fed policy talk, hints at rate-cut push
==========

Donald Trump defended his comments on Federal Reserve policy, asserting he has the right to discuss interest rates; he mentioned past discussions with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell during his presidency; Trump criticized Vice President Kamala Harris's $25,000 down payment assistance plan for first-time homebuyers, calling it a 'big mistake'; he hinted at possibly offering support to struggling homebuyers; Trump emphasized the importance of economic issues in his campaign strategy, particularly in swing states; a recent poll showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 45%, but Trump leads by nine points on economic issues; he plans to renew expiring tax cuts and impose tariffs if elected again.

#Trump #FederalReserve #KamalaHarris #InterestRates #Economy #2024Election #HousingPolicy #Politics #Campaign #SwingStates

https://fortune.com/2024/08/19/trump-fed-president-interest-rate-cut-housing-policy/


August’s stock market fiasco is a 'stark red flag' for what’s to come, veteran hedge funder warns
==========

August 5, 2024, saw global stock market turmoil, attributed to a weak jobs report and changes in central bank policies; Mark Spitznagel, president of Universa Investments, described the event as 'amateur hour' and a 'stark red flag'; he warns of nearing the peak of the largest stock market bubble in history, comparing it to volatility before past crashes in 2000 and 2007; Spitznagel believes the Federal Reserve's prolonged low interest rates have created a fragile economy; he advises patience for retail investors and cautions against betting against the market; he predicts significant market corrections could occur soon.

#StockMarket #Recession #Investing #FederalReserve #MarkSpitznagel #UniversaInvestments #FinancialCrisis #MarketBubble #EconomicIndicators #Volatility

https://fortune.com/2024/08/18/august-stock-market-fiasco-stark-red-flag-mark-spitznagel-black-swan-hedge-funder/


Goldman Sachs trims recession odds to 20% from 25% on strong data
==========

Goldman Sachs economists have lowered the probability of a US recession in the next year to 20% from 25% based on recent retail sales and jobless claims data. If the August jobs report looks good, the recession probability could be cut to 15%. The economists also believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at their September policy meeting. However, a downside jobs surprise on September 6 could trigger a 50bp move. The US economy has shown resilience, with retail sales increasing and the fewest applications for unemployment benefits since early July.

#GoldmanSachs #Recession #UsEconomy #RetailSales #JoblessClaims #FederalReserve #InterestRates

https://fortune.com/2024/08/17/economic-outlook-goldman-sachs-recession-odds-20-percent-jobless-claims-retail-sales-data/


Top Morgan Stanley strategist doesn't see a major stock market collapse despite recent sell-off
==========

Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson believes that a major stock market collapse is unlikely despite recent sell-offs. Wilson predicts that the S&P 500 Index will trade in a range between 5,000 to 5,400, with limited upside potential. He attributes this to slowing growth, overly optimistic earnings expectations, and a Federal Reserve that is hesitant to cut interest rates. Wilson advises investors to focus on individual stocks rather than broader indexes, recommending defensive shares and companies with strong fundamentals. He also warns against small-cap stocks and believes the market is in a late-stage cycle. Wilson expects the Fed to loosen policy in September. Despite the recent volatility, Wilson does not believe the market is entering a new bear market.

#MorganStanley #StockMarket #S&p500 #BearMarket #FederalReserve

https://fortune.com/2024/08/14/morgan-stanley-mike-wilson-stock-market/


Surprise dip in U.K. unemployment combined with rising GDP signals strengthening economy—unlike the U.S.
==========

UK unemployment fell unexpectedly to 4.2% in the three months to June, with employment surging by 97,000; Wage growth slowed in line with expectations; The pound jumped 0.3% to trade above $1.28 on Tuesday; The UK is the best performing currency in the Group of 10 nations; Figures due later this week are likely to show robust economic growth in the UK and the first increase in inflation this year; BOE officials have been focused on wage figures for signs of inflation and the ability of the broader jobs market to drive up pay and prices; A raft of UK economic data this week will set the tone for the BOE in the leadup to its next policy decision on Sept. 19; Investors are betting on the next cut arriving in November; Inflation figures due out on Wednesday are likely to show the first increase in price pressures this year; Some officials have signaled their lingering concerns over strong wage growth; The central bank expects unemployment to hit 4.8% in the coming years; The ONS’s Labour Force Survey, which underpins the unemployment data, has questions about its reliability; The introduction of new “transformed” figures has been delayed until next year.

#Uk #Unemployment #Gdp #Economy #BankOfEngland #InterestRates #WageGrowth #Inflation

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/08/13/surprise-dip-in-u-k-unemployment-combined-with-rising-gdp-signals-strengthening-economy-unlike-u-s/


The much-touted stock market rotation is fizzling as quickly as it started
==========

Traders pulled $2.6 billion from the iShares Russell 2000 ETF in the five days through Friday, the most in nearly three years; The same stocks that were for weeks finally seeing greater investor interest are now suffering a mass exodus as investors recalibrate their expectations for US economic growth; Short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding on the fund has spiked to its highest level since December; The pullout follows a stretch when traders had been showering money on previously left-for-dead strategies that saw the Russell 2000 rise 10% in July, the biggest monthly gain since the end of last year; The gauge is now off by roughly 8% for August; Investors had gotten excited over small-caps firms, betting that a coming era of lower interest rates, among other factors, would be beneficial; The cohort had previously been shunned for much of the year in favor of the tech behemoths; But big tech took a back seat amid the so-called great rotation, while smaller counterparts started to rally in earnest; Then all of it got repriced once again in recent days after a weaker-than-expected July jobs report reignited fears over the health of the US economy; Amid the turbulence, traders also yanked cash from other corners of the market that tend to benefit during risk-on phases; The iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF saw a $1.5 billion outflow last week, while the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF notched a nearly $1.2 billion withdrawal, the most since October; Larger-cap indexes held up better relative to the small-cap gauge, with the S&P 500 ending the week little changed

#StockMarket #Rotation #SmallcapStocks #Russell2000Etf #UsEconomy

https://fortune.com/2024/08/12/stock-market-rotation-bust-small-cap-stocks-russell-2000-etf-iwm-economy/


'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini is actually upbeat about the economy
==========

Economist Nouriel Roubini, known as 'Dr. Doom,' expressed optimism about the economy during an interview on Bloomberg TV. He dismissed fears of a downturn and stated that markets often misjudge the economy and the actions of the Federal Reserve. Roubini rose to prominence for accurately predicting the Great Financial Crisis and has since warned of various catastrophes. While some data indicates a slowdown, Roubini believes there are elements of strength in the economy. Other experts have also highlighted signs of economic strength. Roubini's views contrast with the consensus on Wall Street last year, which predicted a recession after aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

https://fortune.com/2024/08/11/dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-upbeat-us-economy-outlook-recession-hard-landing/


Kamala Harris vows not to interfere with the Fed—unlike Trump
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Vice President Kamala Harris pledges to respect the Federal Reserve's independence and not interfere with its decisions; Harris plans to roll out elements of her economic agenda in the coming week; Trump has expressed frustration with the lack of executive branch influence over interest rates; Harris aims to address voter frustration with President Joe Biden's handling of the economy; Polls show Harris has erased Trump's polling lead; Harris held a rally in Arizona and is on a campaign swing with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz;

#KamalaHarris #FederalReserve #DonaldTrump #Economy #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy

https://fortune.com/2024/08/10/kamala-harris-federal-reserve-independent-monetary-policy-interference-donald-trump/


Even an uptick in inflation is unlikely to spoil a Fed rate cut
==========

US inflation is expected to have risen 0.2% in July, but not enough to prevent a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next month; Fed officials are confident that they can lower borrowing costs while focusing on the labor market; The July jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring and an increase in the unemployment rate, contributing to a global stock market selloff; The consumer price index is expected to show a slight pickup in inflation due to higher shipping costs for goods; The long-awaited slowdown in shelter costs is expected to continue; Other economic data to be released include retail sales, inflation expectations, small business sentiment, industrial production, and new home construction; Central banks in New Zealand, Norway, and the Philippines are expected to make decisions on interest rates; In Europe, the UK will release data on wages, inflation, production, and retail numbers; The euro zone will have a relatively quiet week with releases on investor confidence, industrial production, and GDP; In South America, Argentina will report inflation data and budget balance; Brazil, Colombia, and Chile will release GDP-proxy data; In Africa, Zambia is expected to raise rates to curb inflation; Nigeria's inflation is expected to ease for the first time in 19 months; Israel's inflation is likely to quicken due to the war in Gaza; Uruguay is expected to keep its key rate unchanged; Brazil, Peru, and Colombia will report June GDP-proxy data.

#UsInflation #FederalReserve #InterestrateCut #LaborMarket #JobsReport #ConsumerPriceIndex #ShippingCosts #ShelterCosts #RetailSales #InflationExpectations #SmallBusinessSentiment #IndustrialProduction #NewHomeConstruction #CentralBanks #Europe #Uk #EuroZone #SouthAmerica #Africa #Nigeria #Israel #Uruguay #Brazil #Peru #Colombia

https://fortune.com/2024/08/10/fed-rate-cut-outlook-uptick-inflation-consumer-price-index-economic-data-preview/


Stocks jump as the S&P 500 ends a wild week almost exactly where it started
==========

The S&P 500 rose 0.5% on Friday, bringing its weekly loss down to 0.1%. Japanese stocks fell to their worst loss since the Black Monday crash of 1987, but U.S. stocks rebounded later in the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% and the Nasdaq composite added 0.5%. Expedia Group reported stronger-than-expected profits, leading to a 10% jump in its stock. Treasury yields eased ahead of upcoming reports on the economy. The S&P 500 is now within 6% of its all-time high. Worries remain about the strength of the U.S. economy and upcoming reports on inflation and economic strength. Reports next week will provide updates on retail spending, unemployment benefits, and inflation. Increased skepticism about Wall Street's rush into artificial intelligence technology has also impacted the market. The share of Americans living in the West has fallen for the first time in 100 years. Stellantis plans to cut up to 2,450 jobs at a Detroit-area plant. Raymond James analyst reiterates Global Payments Outperform rating and $144 price target after Q2 earnings beat. Larry Summers warns against presidential influence over Fed policy. Warren Buffett's Apple stock dump will force massive buying as funds rebalance. The summer COVID surge has arrived. Tim Walz's net worth is less than the average American's. Fed president throws doubt onto September rate cut. Elon Musk's backing of Donald Trump is hurting Tesla's EV business in Europe. Florida HBCU's record $237 million donation is worthless. Prominent Georgia family faces a legal battle after trying to displace residents from their homes.

#S&p500 #Stocks #JapaneseStocks #DowJonesIndustrialAverage #Nasdaq #ExpediaGroup #TreasuryYields #UsEconomy #Inflation #RetailSpending #UnemploymentBenefits #ArtificialIntelligenceTechnology #WestCoast #Stellantis #RaymondJames #GlobalPayments #LarrySummers #WarrenBuffett #AppleStock #CovidSurge #TimWalz #FederalReserve #ElonMusk #DonaldTrump #Tesla #FloridaHbcu #Georgia

https://fortune.com/2024/08/09/stock-market-today-sp500-dow-jones-industrial-average-nasdaq-weekly-losses/


Donald Trump is bad news for Europe
==========

Eurogroup chief Paschal Donohoe warns that a second Donald Trump presidency would be bad for Europe and urges the region to reduce its reliance on the US; Donohoe emphasizes the need for Europe to deepen its economic autonomy and strengthen its economy to deal with potential changes in US trade policies; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has also warned of the need for Europe to prepare for harsh decisions in the event of Trump's re-election; Donohoe expresses confidence in the ability of indebted countries like France to curb deficits; He hopes the EU's new capital markets commissioner will outline a strengthened action plan on capital markets union in the early part of next year.

#DonaldTrump #Europe #Eu #PaschalDonohoe #Trade #Economy #Tariffs #Us #CapitalMarketsUnion #Elections #France

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/08/08/donald-trump-is-bad-news-for-europe-the-region-needs-to-learn-to-be-less-reliant-on-the-u-s-if-he-became-president-europe-minister-paschal-donohoe/


Top economist: More people are looking for a job, but not because they were laid off
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The recent rise in unemployment in the US is due to an immigration surge, not widespread job cuts, according to Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok. The unemployment rate has increased to 4.3% because there are more workers, not fewer jobs. Layoffs have been relatively flat for the year, with June having the lowest number of layoffs. The rise in unemployment is a result of a rise in labor supply due to rising immigration. In 2022, net immigration to the US was 2.6 million people, and in 2023, it jumped to 3.3 million. The uptick in immigration has helped cool an overheated labor market but has also reduced wage growth. The recent round of employment data triggered the Sahm rule, indicating the start of a recession, but economists argue that the rule was designed for a decline in labor demand, not a rise in immigration. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell recommends looking at the totality of the data, which still shows a solid economy. However, there are some changes in consumer behavior, such as wobbly retail spending and rising credit card delinquencies, that indicate tougher economic times could be coming.

#Economy #Recession #Unemployment #Immigration #Jobs

https://fortune.com/2024/08/07/economy-recession-unemployment-inflation-federal-reserve-apollo-immigration-jobs/


Robinhood and Nvidia lead market plunge amid economic jitters
==========

U.S. equities plunged on Monday as investors braced for days of volatility amid rising concerns over a slowing US economy and overheated gains in the technology sector. The S&P 500 Index sank 3%, its biggest one-day drop since September 2022, and the tech-tracking Nasdaq 100 Index slid by a similar amount. Megacap tech high-fliers like Nvidia Corp. and Apple Inc. bore the brunt of the losses. Concerns over the health of the U.S. economy took center stage after data showed rising unemployment levels in July. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway slashed its stake in Apple by almost 50% in the second quarter. Nvidia's highly anticipated Blackwell chips may be delayed due to design flaws, potentially impacting big tech firms from Meta to Microsoft. Turbulence in markets in Japan is also rippling across global markets. European stocks plunged amid a deepening global rout in equities and a rotation away from technology shares. Asian currencies gained against the dollar, buoyed by rising dovish wagers for the Federal Reserve and falling Treasury yields.

#MarketPlunge #EconomicJitters #TechnologySector #S&p500 #Nasdaq100 #Nvidia #Apple #UnemploymentLevels #BerkshireHathaway #BlackwellChips #Japan #EuropeanStocks #AsianCurrencies #FederalReserve

https://fortune.com/2024/08/05/robinhood-nvidia-tech-giants-led-market-plunge-amid-economic-jitters/


Today's financial panic looks like the stock crash in 1987—when the economy avoided a recession, market veteran says
==========

Longtime market and economy watcher Ed Yardeni compares the current global equities selloff to the 1987 crash, but believes the economy will avoid a recession. Yardeni points to the internal dynamics of the market, including the unwinding of carry trades and bets on big US tech companies, as reasons for the current plunge in equities. He expects central banks to respond to the financial panic and provide liquidity, potentially through a 50 basis-point rate cut. Yardeni does not anticipate a recession, as he believes the labor market is still in good shape and the US economy is still growing.

#StockMarket #FinancialPanic #Recession #Equities #CarryTrade #CentralBanks #RateCut

https://fortune.com/2024/08/05/stock-market-crash-1987-recession-outlook-financial-panic-federal-reserve-rate-cuts-liquidity/


Despite the stock crash, the AI-fueled bubble will soon regain momentum, economist says
==========

Capital Economics predicts that the AI-fueled bubble will continue to lead the stock market higher despite the recent stock crash; The weak July jobs report and the deterioration in the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index caused the stock market to suffer; Capital Economics sees the Federal Reserve cutting rates at each meeting from September until next July; Recent earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Google indicate significant spending on AI infrastructure, land, and chips; Other economists, such as Claudia Sahm, are not concerned about a recession and believe that the US economy will not hinder the AI-fueled bubble from picking up steam again soon.

#StockMarket #Ai #Recession #FederalReserve #Economy

https://fortune.com/2024/08/04/stock-market-crash-economic-outlook-recession-ai-fueled-bubble-fed-rate-cuts/


After last week's violent selloff, one stock market rotation ended and another may have begun
==========

The stock market selloff triggered by fears that the Federal Reserve missed its chance to help the US economy ended one rotation trade and may have started another. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index tumbled into a correction and the S&P 500 Index lost 3.2% in two days. However, utilities and real estate companies were the best performers in the S&P 500 for the week. Investors are pouring money into real estate and utility sector US exchange-traded funds. This is the second stock market rotation investors have faced recently. The first rotation trade saw demand for small-capitalization companies taking off, but that ended when the valuation spread between small caps and large caps widened. Now, with rate cuts seemingly on the way and Treasury yields plunging, investors are piling into dividend-paying, lower volatility stocks. The stock market may face more pain as August and September are historically the worst two months for US stock market returns. Volatility is surging, with the Cboe Volatility Index reaching its highest level since March 2023. Traders are finding it difficult to predict the market due to the extreme degree that risk assets have front-run the Fed's first rate cut. Investors are not paying up to hedge for a possible selloff. Contracts protecting against a 10% decline in the largest ETF tracking the S&P 500 currently cost just 1.9 times more than options that profit from a 10% rally.

#StockMarket #RotationTrade #UsEconomy #FederalReserve #S&p500 #Nasdaq100Index #Utilities #RealEstate #DividendpayingStocks #RateCuts #TreasuryYields #SmallcapCompanies #LargecapCompanies #Volatility #RiskAssets #Hedging

https://fortune.com/2024/08/04/stock-market-crash-new-rotation-trade-economic-outlook-recession-utilities/


Germany remains the eurozone's troubled economic child and sets back Europe, while the U.S. continues to lead the way
==========

Germany's economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, while the eurozone's GDP rose by 0.3%; The U.S. economy grew by 0.7% in the second quarter; Higher interest rates in Europe have brought inflation down but have also hindered construction activity and house prices; European consumers are saving at record levels, while U.S. consumers are spending freely; Europe's growth is held back by factors such as higher taxation, burdensome regulation, and lack of investment in productive capital; Germany faces issues with complicated permissions processes, lack of skilled labor, and lagging infrastructure investment; European governments are trimming deficits and shifting away from pandemic support measures; Europe's growth is also affected by longer-term factors such as higher taxation and burdensome regulation; Europe needs to raise productivity and increase investment to catch up with the U.S.; European consumers' high level of precautionary savings is leading to low intentions for major purchases; Europe's growth is also hindered by factors such as higher taxation and burdensome regulation; Europe's growth is also hindered by factors such as higher taxation and burdensome regulation

#Germany #Eurozone #Us #Economy #Gdp #Inflation #InterestRates #ConstructionActivity #HousePrices #ConsumerSpending #BudgetDeficits #Productivity #Investment

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/07/30/germany-remains-eurozone-troubled-economic-child-sets-back-europe-while-u-s-continues-to-lead-the-way/


Wall Street is worrying about the 'Sahm Rule' that predicts recessions—but its creator is not, yet
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Former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm cautions against prematurely forecasting a recession using the Sahm Rule, which predicts a recession when the unemployment rate's three-month moving average exceeds the lowest three-month moving average of the past year by half a percentage point or more; Sahm argues that the risk of recession has risen due to the exodus of workers known as the Great Resignation, but other indicators such as consumer spending and non-farm payrolls are inconsistent with a broad-based weakening in activity; Sahm believes that the upward pressure on the U.S. labor market exerted by rising numbers of immigrants is artificially inflating the official unemployment rate, and official revisions to past data can also affect the reading; Sahm states that a recession is not imminent, but the risks have risen; U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to cut interest rates to avoid a recession.

#SahmRule #Recession #Unemployment #FederalReserve #ClaudiaSahm #LaborMarket #Immigration #InterestRates

https://fortune.com/2024/07/29/sahm-rule-recession-unemployment/


Tech stocks are 'one bad payroll away' from losing their dominance, BofA says
==========

Bank of America Corp.'s Michael Hartnett warns that the rally in US tech stocks is at risk of fading if the US economy continues to cool; $2.6 trillion has been erased from the market capitalization of firms in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index since July 10; Signs of an economic slowdown could fuel a rotation into stocks that have lagged behind tech mega-caps; Recent data suggests the global economy is 'ill'; A bad payroll report could lead to big tech stocks losing their dominance; The upward trajectory of tech stocks has been derailed as investors flock into small caps on bets that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting rates soon; BofA's custom bull-and-bear indicator is at its highest level in over three years; A reading above 8 would flash a contrarian sell signal; Equity bulls believe that a correction is 'healthy' as the market hasn't fallen below critical levels; The Nasdaq 100 has dropped about 9% since July 10, but it's still up more than 30% since October 2023.

#TechStocks #MarketOutlook #UsEconomy #Nasdaq #BankOfAmerica

https://fortune.com/2024/07/26/tech-stocks-market-outlook-jobs-payroll-report-economy-forecast-nasdaq-losses/


Private equity is devouring the economy as boomer entrepreneurs exit—but a new approach to employee ownership can change that
==========

Private equity roll-up mergers are growing rapidly as baby boomer entrepreneurs seek to retire; Private equity companies are acquiring private companies in fragmented industries with insufficient succession planning; Private equity companies lack expertise in specific industries and running a company; A civil engineering company in Wisconsin made over 20 acquisitions without private equity involvement by implementing an Employee Stock Ownership Program (ESOP) and fostering common stock ownership among employees; The valuation of the civil engineering company surged more than sixfold in the last five years; The alternative approach to private equity roll-ups is becoming known as 'rewarding roll-ups'; Broad awareness and adoption of this approach are limited but growing quickly

#PrivateEquity #EmployeeOwnership #BusinessSuccessionPlanning #Esop #RewardingRollups

https://fortune.com/2024/07/24/private-equity-devouring-economy-boomer-entrepreneurs-exit-employee-ownership-labor-finance-leadership/


Nvidia is reportedly making another China-focused AI chip as U.S. export controls hit its business in the world’s second largest economy
==========

Nvidia is working on a version of its Blackwell series AI chip for the China market in collaboration with Inspur, one of its major distributors in China. The U.S. has controlled sales of Nvidia's AI chips to China since October 2022. Nvidia's data center revenue in China has significantly declined since Washington expanded chip controls in October 2023. However, Nvidia is expected to sell over a million of its H20 chips, the most advanced chip available in China, generating $12 billion in sales this year. The U.S. is pressuring the Netherlands and Japan to further restrict Chinese access to chipmaking equipment. Nvidia's shares rose 1.5% in pre-market trading on Monday.

#Nvidia #AiChip #China #UsExportControls #Inspur #BlackwellSeries #DataCenterRevenue #H20Chips

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/07/22/nvidia-working-on-new-china-focused-blackwell-ai-chip-us-export-controls/


Bill Ackman warns political chaos around Biden is an invitation for rivals to exploit U.S. weakness
==========

Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital, criticizes President Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race and warns of potential exploitation by rivals; President Biden announced his withdrawal and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor on his personal X profile; Ackman criticizes the decision to post the announcement on a social media site instead of traditional media channels; Ackman suggests that rival world powers could take advantage of the political upheaval in the U.S.; Geopolitical tensions, including the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, are a concern for Wall Street veterans; Tensions around Taiwan have been increasing, with former President Donald Trump making statements about the territory; Taiwan is seen as politically distinct from China, but China views it as part of its territory; President Biden has not yet addressed the nation; Other articles related to Biden's withdrawal and its impact on the Democratic Party and world leaders' reactions.

#BillAckman #PresidentBiden #KamalaHarris #China #Taiwan #GeopoliticalTensions #DemocraticParty #WorldLeaders

https://fortune.com/2024/07/22/bill-ackman-president-biden-election-china-taiwan/


VP Kamala Harris trends on Chinese social media as users think the U.S. election chaos helps Donald Trump
==========

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is trending on Chinese social media as users believe her bid for the Democratic presidential ticket will help Donald Trump win the election; Chinese citizens are trying to understand the implications of the switch-up for the world's No. 2 economy; An online poll of 12,000 Weibo users found that nearly 80% believe Trump will beat Harris in the November race; Images of a bloodied Trump waving his fist after being shot have boosted his popularity in China; State media outlets highlight that Harris would be the first American president with Asian descent if she wins, but few reports mention the policy implications for China; Experts believe Harris won't likely develop a targeted strategy on China in the short term;

#KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump #UsElection #China #SocialMedia

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/07/22/kamala-harris-trending-china-social-media-joe-biden-exit-donald-trump-us-presidential-election/


The Supreme Court's 'Chevron' ruling is an existential threat to the 'American economic miracle' and will make the U.S. more like Europe, Lazard chair says
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The Supreme Court's decision to overturn the Chevron ruling will harm innovation and threaten U.S. economic vitality; Lazard's Kenneth Jacobs argues that it is anti-business and will lead to the Balkanization of the U.S. economy; Abandoning the Chevron doctrine will result in a patchwork of state-by-state rules, hindering innovation and economic development; Some industry groups argue that regulator over-reach has made doing business burdensome and unpredictable; Financial regulators are likely to be among the hardest hit by the Supreme Court's decision.

#SupremeCourt #ChevronRuling #UsEconomy #Lazard #KennethJacobs #Regulation #Innovation #EconomicDevelopment #StatebystateRules #FinancialRegulators

https://fortune.com/2024/07/20/supreme-court-chevron-ruling-existential-threat-american-economic-miracle-innovation-state-rulemaking/


America's largest economy is falling out of love with Tesla—and it's only going to get worse
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Tesla sales in California dropped 24.1% in the second quarter; Purchases dipped 7.8% in the first quarter of 2024 and 9.8% in the final quarter of last year; Year-to-date, Tesla sales in California are down 17% compared to last year; Toyota BEV registrations have soared 108.1% so far this year, while Hyundai and Ford BEV registrations rose 65.7% and 26.4%, respectively; About 46.9% of registered voters in California are Democrats, while 23.9% of registered voters are Republicans; Tesla is still the car of choice in California; California’s BEV market share is 21.4%, while the overall U.S. market share of BEVs is 7.5%

#Tesla #California #ElectricVehicles #Toyota #Hyundai #Ford

https://fortune.com/2024/07/19/tesla-sales-falling-california-toyota-hyundai-ford-rising/


Asia has a Trump trade too: Investors think India will win, China will lose from the former president’s ‘America First’ policy
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Stock traders in Asia are preparing for a potential second term for former US President Donald Trump, which could have winners and losers in the region. Trump's 'America first' policies would negatively impact sectors in Asia such as agriculture, farm equipment, textiles, and weapons production. China is seen as a clear loser due to higher tariffs and confrontational rhetoric. Taiwan and South Korea, reliant on export revenues from tech sectors, are also expected to face a downturn. India is seen as a potential beneficiary. Southeast Asian economies, less tied to exports, may be able to deflect fallout from a change in the White House. Investors believe India has a better relationship with the US and would be less affected. Japan's risks are more balanced, and it may have an opportunity to cement its semiconductor sector renaissance. Vietnam, Taiwan, and Malaysia are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries in Asia. Southeast Asia, including Thailand, may be in a good position due to the impact on China. Tech-related sectors in Asia may be more affected, while ASEAN countries may be more resilient. China's GDP growth has slowed to 4.7% due to insufficient domestic demand. Uniqlo's parent company's shares dropped as it warns of a 'turning point' in its China strategy. Chinese billionaire convicted of defrauding followers to fund a lavish lifestyle. Thailand is implementing a $14 billion program to stimulate its economy. Anti-tourist backlash in Europe causes cruise ships to change course. Former American Express CEO says business leaders are scared to tell Trump what they really think. Philadelphia experiences record snowfall in July. Jamie Dimon says the US has a problem with national debt. JD Vance, Trump's new VP pick, brands China the 'biggest threat' to the US. The Trump trade is expected to gain momentum on Wall Street. Goldman Sachs CEO speaks on division and distrust in America. BYD expands into Southeast Asia with its first EV plant in Thailand.

#TrumpTrade #Asia #India #China #Taiwan #SouthKorea #SoutheastAsia #Export #Economy #Tariffs #TechSector #GdpGrowth #Uniqlo #Billionaire #Thailand #AntitouristBacklash #AmericanExpress #NationalDebt #JdVance #WallStreet #GoldmanSachs #Byd

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/07/18/asia-trump-trade-investors-india-china-lose-america-first-policy/


Larry Fink says America's $35 trillion national debt will be a 'big burden on the backs of our children' unless the private sector is given room to grow
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Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warns that America's national debt of $35 trillion will burden future generations unless the private sector is allowed to grow. Fink joins other CEOs such as Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan and Brian Moynihan of Bank of America in expressing concerns about the country's spending and ability to service its debt. The main concern is the debt-to-GDP ratio, which is projected to rise from 99% to 122% by 2034. Fink advocates for economic growth to offset the debt rather than curbing spending. He emphasizes the need for unfettered businesses and private sector growth to create jobs and opportunities.

#LarryFink #NationalDebt #PrivateSector #EconomicGrowth #DebttogdpRatio

https://fortune.com/2024/07/16/larry-fink-national-debt-burden-future-generations/


Republican National Convention focuses on Trump’s economic plans
==========

The Republican National Convention focused on Trump's economic plans, including tariffs, tax cuts, and no taxes on tips. However, few details were provided. Trump's campaign is betting that voters care more about attitude than policy specifics. Trump wants tariffs on trade partners, no taxes on tips, and a lower corporate tax rate. The platform also promises to defeat inflation, bring down prices, and increase oil, natural gas, and coal production. Democrats and economists argue that Trump's ideas would cause inflation, harm the middle class, and increase the national debt. Trump's campaign declined to answer economic questions and instead directed to video clips of him. In contrast, Biden has an exhaustive 188-page budget proposal. Trump's plans have bipartisan backing on banning taxes on tips and cutting regulations. However, companies generally dislike tariffs as they can raise costs for consumers. Trump's tariff plans could worsen inflation. The Republican National Convention also discussed illegal immigration and scrapping Biden's policies on electric vehicles and renewable energy. Deporting 1.3 million workers could shrink the U.S. economy by 2.1%. Trump's second term would focus on the needs of business to drive economic growth. Trump's tariff policies could make it more expensive to bring in raw materials and raise prices for consumers. The Republican National Convention focused on Trump's economic plans, but offered few details.

#RepublicanNationalConvention #Trump #EconomicPlans #Tariffs #TaxCuts #Tips #Details #Attitude #CorporateTaxRate #Inflation #Oil #NaturalGas #Coal #IllegalImmigration #ElectricVehicles #RenewableEnergy #Deportation #Economists #Biden #BudgetProposal #Regulations #Bipartisan #Tariffs #Inflation #RawMaterials #Prices

https://fortune.com/2024/07/16/rnc-trump-economic-plans-tariffs-tax-cuts-no-taxes-tips-few-details/


Long periods of political violence are 'very bad' for the markets, analyst warns
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Long periods of political violence in democratic societies have historically been detrimental to markets and risk-taking. Analyst Thierry Wizman cites examples of Italy's Years of Lead and the Troubles in Northern Ireland as periods characterized by reduced investment, brain drains, and reductions in tourism. If political violence continues in the US, foreign investors may be deterred from investing and building businesses. The US economy, being the world's largest, would have broader global implications if it faced a hit due to ongoing political violence. The US economy is also facing stubborn inflation, which could be exacerbated by political violence. The market has long expected that a Trump win in the election would be inflationary, reflected in rising Treasury yields. Bond yields tend to go up during periods of political violence as investors flock to them as relatively safe assets. In the aftermath of the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, political leaders have stressed national unity. President Joe Biden addressed the nation twice over the weekend, emphasizing the importance of standing together. Analysts warn that while Monday's stock market rally may indicate optimism, the markets are not in the clear and prolonged political violence can have negative consequences.

#PoliticalViolence #Markets #UsEconomy #DonaldTrump #AssassinationAttempt #Investors #Inflation #NationalUnity

https://fortune.com/2024/07/15/donald-trump-assassination-attempt-political-violence-markets-us-economy-joe-biden-inflation/


Economy still expected to be the focus of RNC first day despite Trump assassination attempt
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The first day of the Republican National Convention (RNC) is still expected to focus on the economy, despite the assassination attempt on Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania. The speakers at the convention are likely to argue that Trump's agenda of tariffs and lower taxes would jump-start the economy. Trump's economic plans include tariffs on trade partners, no taxes on tips, a reduction in the corporate tax rate, and a focus on oil, natural gas, and coal. However, Democrats and some economists argue that Trump's ideas would cause inflation, harm the middle class, and increase the national debt. Trump has released few hard numbers or policy details, relying on his record in office to appeal to voters. The RNC's focus on the economy contrasts with Joe Biden's detailed 188-page budget proposal. Some of Trump's plans, such as cutting regulations and lowering the corporate tax rate, have bipartisan support, but his proposed tariffs could raise costs and worsen inflation. Despite the risks, Trump's tariff policies could be politically beneficial, particularly in industrial areas that have lost jobs to China. The first day of the RNC will still emphasize the economy, with Trump's economic record in his first term as a key selling point for his second term.

#RepublicanNationalConvention #DonaldTrump #Economy

https://fortune.com/2024/07/15/donald-trump-assassination-attempt-rnc-first-day/


What investors should look for as Wall Street prices in a new political and financial outlook after the Trump shooting
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Pre-market trading in the U.S. will begin Sunday evening to assess the impact of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump on markets. Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, believes the shooting makes a Trump win in the presidential election more likely. The shooting has upended the political landscape, affecting control of Congress and majorities. Trump's plans for tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration could be inflationary and impact Fed rate cuts. Crypto investors have reacted positively to Trump, while some of Biden's backers are critical of the SEC. The Supreme Court's decisions could lead to deregulation and more M&A activity. A Trump win would favor fossil fuels over renewable energy. Tech stocks may be affected by Washington's limits, but the economy and stock market have historically performed well regardless of the president.

#Investors #WallStreet #DonaldTrump #AssassinationAttempt #PresidentialElection #Inflation #FedRateCuts #CryptoInvestors #Sec #SupremeCourt #FossilFuels #RenewableEnergy #TechStocks #Economy #StockMarket

https://fortune.com/2024/07/14/donald-trump-assassination-attempt-investors-wall-street-financial-markets-outlook-inflation-bonds-stocks-energy-fed/


U.S. corporate bankruptcies are soaring above the pandemic-era peak, adding to the economic alarms bells piling up
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The number of U.S. companies that filed for bankruptcy last month topped the highs seen during the early stages of the pandemic in 2020. June saw 75 filings, up from 62 in May and above the pandemic-era peak of 74 in July 2020. The year-to-date total of 356 bankruptcy filings also tops the same period in 2020 and is higher than any comparable figure in the last 13 years. High interest rates, supply chain issues, and slowing consumer spending are weighing on struggling companies. The surge in bankruptcy filings comes as more people on Wall Street are sounding alarms about the economy. Citi Research predicts the Fed will trim rates by 25 basis points eight times, starting in September and extending to July 2025. The creator of the 'Sahm Rule' recession indicator warns that the Fed risks sending the economy into a recession by continuing to hold off on rate cuts.

#UsCorporateBankruptcies #PandemiceraPeak #EconomicAlarmBells #FederalReserve #InterestRates #SupplyChainIssues #ConsumerSpending #WallStreet #CitiResearch #SahmRule #RecessionIndicator

https://fortune.com/2024/07/13/economic-outlook-us-corporate-bankruptcies-pandemic-era-high-recession-warning-unemployment/


Tech could have a 'massive consolidation' problem due to AI
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Lawmakers, including U.S. Senator Ron Wyden, are concerned about the 'massive consolidation' happening in the tech industry due to the acquisition of talent and products from innovative AI startups without formal acquisitions. This practice, known as 'reverse acqui-hire' or poaching, allows big tech companies to bypass U.S. laws protecting against monopolies. Wyden has urged U.S. regulators to investigate these practices, specifically mentioning the recent Amazon-Adept deal. The push for stronger oversight of the tech industry by the Biden administration and lawmakers has likely deterred big acquisitions. Tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are being conservative in making acquisitions in the AI space. Smaller AI startups face challenges in building AI systems due to the high costs involved. The hiring of Adept employees by Amazon without acquiring the company is seen as an attempt to avoid antitrust problems. However, legal experts argue that this is not a 'reverse acqui-hire' but rather a straightforward poaching. The concern over consolidation in the AI industry arises from the fact that a few companies control a major portion of the market, hindering innovation and competition.

#Ai #TechIndustry #Consolidation #Acquihire #Antitrust #Innovation

https://fortune.com/2024/07/12/ai-massive-consolidation-big-tech-ron-wyden/


The death of the Chevron doctrine complicates U.S. lawmakers’ efforts to regulate AI—but there’s another way
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The U.S. Supreme Court has overturned the Chevron doctrine, which empowered federal regulators to interpret unclear laws, limiting the abilities of rule-making agencies to interpret and administer laws on public concerns. This ruling has implications for the regulation of artificial intelligence (AI). The U.S. needs nimble, forward-thinking policies to protect against AI risks while promoting innovation. Three principles for AI governance are proposed: prioritizing AI incident reporting to identify risks, leveraging existing regulatory authorities, and leveraging America's strengths in innovation and decentralized economy. The ruling presents an opportunity to create a more agile and innovation-friendly governance environment for AI.

https://fortune.com/2024/07/11/death-chevron-doctrine-complicates-us-lawmakers-efforts-regulate-ai-supreme-court-tech-politics/


A record €800 billion will flow into Europe's economy this summer—all thanks to American tourists
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A new report from the United Nations World Tourism Organization confirms that international tourists are projected to spend a record €800 billion in Europe this year, a 37% increase over pre-pandemic levels. Americans are driving this year's European tourism boom, with 72% of the record tourism spend taking place in western European destinations. Southern European and Mediterranean destinations remain firm favorites for travelers in Europe, with Greece seeing increased tourism despite climate impacts. Northern destinations like Denmark, Norway, and Sweden are also gaining market share. Lesser-visited or less-crowded European destinations like Croatia, Malta, and Albania are experiencing a rise in tourist arrivals. Places with favorable currency exchange rates like Bulgaria, Serbia, and Turkey are also popular. Online perceptions of Europe scored higher than other regions, with the Middle East and Asia Pacific in second and third place. Overtourism in popular destinations has led to opportunities for under-the-radar locations. Encouraging tourists to visit these locations is key to spreading the benefits across Europe.

#EuropeanTourism #AmericanTourists #TravelTrends

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/07/11/800-billion-euros-will-flow-into-europes-economy-this-summer-all-thanks-to-american-tourists/


Trump to address ‘future of the American Bitcoin industry’ at crypto gathering this month
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Donald Trump will speak at Bitcoin 2024, an annual conference in Nashville on July 27. He will share his vision for the future of the American Bitcoin industry and its impact on the U.S. economy. Other speakers at the conference include Russell Brand and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Trump's interest in crypto is driven by his desire to court crypto voters and harvest their dollars. He has been accepting donations in cryptocurrencies and seeking guidance from Elon Musk on his crypto policy. Trump sees crypto as a key priority in his campaign as it could sway the support of voters in swing states. The crypto industry is throwing money at pro-crypto candidates to counter the SEC's hostile stance towards crypto. The political action committees Fairshake and Stand with Crypto have raised millions of dollars to lobby for crypto-friendly candidates.

#DonaldTrump #Bitcoin #CryptoIndustry #Bitcoin2024 #Nashville #CryptoConference #CryptoVoters #ElonMusk #Sec #SwingStates

https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/07/11/trump-to-address-future-of-the-american-bitcoin-industry-at-crypto-gathering-this-month/


Inflation will go up regardless of who the next president is, but under Trump’s tariffs it would be higher for longer, Oxford Economics says
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Inflation is predicted to increase regardless of whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump wins a second term. Oxford Economics predicts that under a Trump presidency, peak inflation would be 0.6 percentage points higher than the current 3.3%, reaching 3.8%. Under Biden, inflation would be just 0.1% higher. The main drivers of inflation under Trump would be his draconian immigration policies, further reduction of corporate tax rates, and an unprecedented tariff on all foreign goods. Biden would temporarily extend the child tax credit, leading to a near-term spike in inflation. In the long run, family support policies would stimulate growth without raising inflation. Both Biden and Trump would not see a decline in inflation or remain at current levels. Trump's proposed tariffs would be especially inflationary, contributing to rising prices. Economists estimate that Trump's proposed tariffs would increase annual expenses for households by $1,700 to $2,350. Biden has implemented tariffs selectively to ensure domestic production in certain areas. His administration is unlikely to ease up on existing tariffs. Taming inflation will be less likely if either party wins both the White House and control of Congress. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is optimistic about inflation coming down but remains circumspect on when it will head toward the Fed's 2% target.

#Inflation #UsPresidentialElection #Trump #Biden #Tariffs #OxfordEconomics

https://fortune.com/2024/07/10/trump-biden-election-inflation-economy-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-united-states/


Why investing in places like Birmingham, Alabama is key to securing U.S. biotech dominance as China tries to close the gap
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China has aggressively gathered personal health data from Americans and other countries to dominate the bioeconomy. Lawmakers have introduced bipartisan legislation to secure American health data and protect intellectual property. Birmingham, Alabama, with the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) and Southern Research, is positioned to lead in biotech innovation. The Birmingham Biotech Hub aims to catalyze innovation, drive economic growth, and improve health outcomes. Federal investment from the U.S. Department of Commerce is crucial to onshore key aspects of the supply chain for personalized medicine. It will stimulate job creation, ensure regional economic competitiveness, and anchor the national bioeconomy. Trusted institutions in the South can address national healthcare challenges and put America at the forefront of innovation. Investing in places like Birmingham is essential for maintaining U.S. biotech leadership.

#Biotech #China #Birmingham #Alabama #PersonalizedMedicine #Innovation #EconomicGrowth

https://fortune.com/2024/07/03/why-investing-in-places-like-birmingham-alabama-is-key-to-securing-u-s-biotech-dominance-as-china-tries-to-close-the-gap/


A shrinking service economy and rising jobless claims send stocks to record highs ahead of July 4 holiday
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Stocks hit records as weak economic data reinforce the case for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. The S&P 500 headed towards a fresh record on bets of policy easing. US services sector contracted at the fastest pace in four years. Private payrolls rose at a moderate pace and continuing jobless claims climbed for a ninth straight week. Economists anticipate a 190,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls. Treasury 10-year yields fell nine basis points to 4.34%. Swap traders are projecting almost two rate cuts in 2024. The S&P 500 rose to around 5,520. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation is getting back on a downward path, but more evidence is needed before lowering interest rates. Fed Bank of New York President John Williams pushed back against recent commentary that the natural rate of interest has risen since the pandemic.

#StockMarket #FederalReserve #UsEconomy #InterestRates #Inflation

https://fortune.com/2024/07/03/stock-market-record-services-jobless-claims/


More workers were laid off in May as job openings increased
==========

In May, U.S. job openings increased to 8.1 million, despite the impact of higher interest rates. Layoffs rose to 1.65 million, while the number of Americans quitting their jobs remained unchanged. The U.S. economy has been resilient despite the Federal Reserve's campaign to raise interest rates. Job openings have been decreasing since March 2022. The economy grew at a slow pace of 1.4% from January to March 2024. The Labor Department is expected to report that employers added 190,000 jobs in June. High interest rates have helped bring inflation down closer to the Fed's target. Walmart has held talks to sell its shuttered medical clinics. The U.S. government will pay Moderna $176 million to develop a bird flu vaccine. Ken Griffin is skeptical about AI replacing jobs in the next 3 years. Gen Zers are disillusioned with the economy and think it's okay to commit fraud.

#JobOpenings #Layoffs #UsEconomy #InterestRates #Inflation #Walmart #Moderna #Ai #GenZ

https://fortune.com/2024/07/02/jolts-job-openings-layoffs-may/


China knows which Democrat it would like to run if Biden steps down
==========

Chinese social media users in China have expressed support for Gavin Newsom as a potential replacement for President Joe Biden if he were to step down. Newsom, the governor of California, has been praised for his visit to China last year and his positive attitude towards Beijing. He has been described as a "cool head" and someone who understands the benefits of business ties with China. However, some Chinese citizens have expressed concerns about Newsom's political weak spots, such as his West coast background and the fact that California has never produced a Democratic president. Overall, the idea of a candidate who isn't threatening huge trade tariffs on China and has displayed a positive attitude towards Beijing is appealing to many in China.

#China #UsPolitics #GavinNewsom #JoeBiden

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/07/02/china-democrat-biden-steps-down-gavin-newsom/


The South Bronx is a cross section of everything wrong with America
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The South Bronx, the poorest congressional district in the country, faces challenges such as lack of financial funding for small businesses, unaffordable housing, rampant inflation, and insufficient neighborhood safety. Decades of redlining and disinvestment, combined with a historical legacy of pollution, have created a perfect storm of poverty. However, the community is resilient and many entrepreneurs are working to improve the neighborhood's core issues. Small businesses play a significant role in the South Bronx economy, but they face challenges in accessing financial support and dealing with city regulations. The neighborhood also struggles with pollution, with high levels of asthma-related complications. The South Bronx has a largely Hispanic and Black population and lacks resources like recreational options for youth, funding for schools, and access to healthy food. The community is working to overcome these challenges and create a better future.

#SouthBronx #Poverty #SmallBusinesses #Housing #Pollution #Resilience

https://fortune.com/2024/06/29/south-bronx-poorest-congressional-district-america-poverty-pollution-economy/


Wall Street cheers as Fed's favorite inflation gauge shows price hikes are the slowest in 4 years
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The Commerce Department report shows that consumer prices were flat from April to May, the mildest performance in over four years. Prices rose 2.6% from a year earlier, slightly less than in April. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.1% from April to May, the smallest increase since spring 2020. Prices for physical goods fell 0.4% from April to May, while prices for services ticked up 0.2%. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, showed that inflation eased in May for a second straight month. The latest figures will likely be welcomed by the Fed's policymakers, who have said they need to feel confident that inflation is slowing sustainably toward their 2% target before they'd start cutting interest rates. Stocks rose on Wall Street following the release of the report.

#Inflation #FederalReserve #WallStreet #ConsumerPrices #PersonalConsumptionExpendituresPriceIndex

https://fortune.com/2024/06/28/personal-consumption-expenditures-inflation/


Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen blames Trump’s tax cuts for ‘many of the problems’ with the U.S.’s soaring budget deficit
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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen blames former President Donald Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for the U.S.'s soaring budget deficit. Yellen argues that the tax cuts gave tax breaks to wealthy corporations and individuals while increasing the national deficit. The national debt grew $7.8 trillion during Trump's presidency. Extending Trump's tax cuts for the next 10 years would add $4.6 trillion to the deficit, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Proponents of the tax cuts argue that they boosted the economy and increased U.S. corporations' competitiveness. Yellen believes that ending the tax cuts and enacting President Biden's proposed $3 trillion, 10-year budget deficit reduction plan will put the U.S. on a fiscally sustainable course.

#JanetYellen #DonaldTrump #TaxCutsAndJobsAct #BudgetDeficit #NationalDebt #CongressionalBudgetOffice #EconomicGrowth #CorporateTaxRate

https://fortune.com/2024/06/25/janet-yellen-blames-trump-tax-cuts-problems-debt/


A 45-year-old Los Angeles man was charged in a $50 million scheme to launder Mexican cartel money
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Edgar Joel Martinez-Reyes, a 45-year-old Los Angeles man, has been charged in a $50 million scheme to launder Mexican cartel money. The scheme involved rich Chinese nationals who wanted luxury goods. The U.S. Department of Justice announced a multi-count indictment that charged more than a dozen Los Angeles members of the Mexican Sinaloa drug cartel and Chinese currency brokers with conspiring to launder drug money. The investigation has yielded $5 million in cash, cocaine, methamphetamine, Ecstasy, and magic mushrooms. The lead defendant, Martinez-Reyes, and other defendants used various methods to launder the money, including buying crypto, depositing money into bank accounts, buying precious metals and gems, and taking them to Mexico for sale. The scheme also involved Chinese money exchanges that assist rich Chinese nationals in transferring their money to the U.S. The brokers charged a commission fee to disguise the drug money. The defendants face a minimum of 10 years in prison if convicted on all charges. The Sinaloa drug cartel is responsible for the surging infusion of fentanyl in the U.S. in the past eight years. The cartel turned to Chinese money exchanges to get the money to Mexico. The DOJ stated that drug traffickers have partnered with Chinese underground money exchanges to take advantage of the large demand for U.S. dollars from Chinese nationals.

https://fortune.com/2024/06/18/45-year-old-los-angeles-man-charged-cartel-luxury-china/