Goldman Sachs trims recession odds to 20% from 25% on strong data
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Goldman Sachs economists have lowered the probability of a US recession in the next year to 20% from 25% based on recent retail sales and jobless claims data. If the August jobs report looks good, the recession probability could be cut to 15%. The economists also believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at their September policy meeting. However, a downside jobs surprise on September 6 could trigger a 50bp move. The US economy has shown resilience, with retail sales increasing and the fewest applications for unemployment benefits since early July.
#GoldmanSachs #Recession #UsEconomy #RetailSales #JoblessClaims #FederalReserve #InterestRates
https://fortune.com/2024/08/17/economic-outlook-goldman-sachs-recession-odds-20-percent-jobless-claims-retail-sales-data/
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