Human knowledge is influenced by beliefs, fears, and preconceived ideas. We know a lot less than we think we do, and much of what we claim to know is wrong.
People should be aware that the WordPress software is free and open source and that will never change, as are the 60k free plugins in the repo, all maintained by the developers who provide them. The drama is between two big companies in the space. That's all. Your website is fine!
I tried my hand at making an educational video about the #bitcoin power law!
It seems there are a lot of people that want to understand it better, and plenty of people who think it's more complicated than it really is.
In this video I break it down simply, and show you exactly how to verify and derive it for yourself. Google Sheet link in video description.
Please give it a like 👍🧡
#powerlaw #bitcoinpowerlaw #videostr #youtubestr
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMfix4xlnXA
The Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) says that people adopt new technology due to two primary factors:
1) Perceived usefulness
2) Perceived ease of use
If you're building on #bitcoin or #nostr, this is how we get more users. Create platforms and products that solve genuine problems, or make existing things easier, and make them easy to use.
Simply being a decentralized twitter is not perceived as useful (by most people!). That's the sad truth.
The reason people adopt a new technology is because they perceive some usefulness that they couldn't get elsewhere, and they find it easy to use. Right now, to most people, Nostr is simply Twitter with less users. Adoption will accelerate once more apps are built and utility explodes. Ease of use is also important.
What makes the #bitcoin power law a good model?
It's not a complex mathematical mess; it's extremely simple!
The model has one single parameter: time.
The below chart is an approximation of the power law model. Here I'm computing it using calendar time when it's usually done with block time yielding an even better fit.
To yield the characteristic straight line, the trick is to take the log of both axes (time and price). This results in a linear trend upward, with the price wrapping around the trendline for an extremely tight and compelling fit.
Additionally, when thinking about the bitcoin price in log terms, price drops from 60k to 50k, or 73k to 58k are literally inconsequential. It's a better framework for thinking about bitcoin's long term trajectory.
I'm not sure how long the #powerlaw model will hold, but I doubt it will break any time soon. I do think the liquidity model is equally valid and likely provides a more robust framework for understanding #bitcoin's price movements.
https://m.primal.net/LLCy.png
I have noticed a pattern among "famous" academics, i.e., the ones that appear on TV and on podcasts all the time: They usually appear to be pedaling nonsense; Keynesian economics in the case of economists, bad health advice in the case of medical specialists, deterministic materialism in the case of physicists, the list goes on.
In November 2021 #bitcoin hit a high of, roughly, $65,000. At that time the hash rate was around 162EH.
Right now the #bitcoin price is at about $60,000, but the hash rate is 686EH.
At a simple level, network participants are telling us that bitcoin is severely undervalued right now.
If we compute a hash-adjusted price for bitcoin, we *should* be at about $275,000 right now.
#bullish
https://m.primal.net/LJan.png
https://m.primal.net/LFci.png
The crypto fear and greed index has begun to tick up. Is this a #bullish signal for #bitcoin, or are we in for another wave of scammy shitcoinery? Or both?
Predicting when #bitcoin hits $1M based on global liquidity growth:
Let's do some (bad) math!
What we know: #bitcoin is highly correlated to global liquidity (there are different ways to measure "global liquidity" but I am looking at the global M2 money supply of the world's top 21 central banks).
How we know this: Looking at the bitcoin price over global M2 on a log-log chart yields a straight line. This indicates a power law relationship. The R squared is 0.9 (!!) suggesting that 90% of the variance in btc price can be explained by changes in global M2. This indicates a strong correlation (Chart #1).
Now let's use this to create a simple model that predicts the bitcoin price for a given M2 value (Chart #2).
Using the model equation we can see that bitcoin will hit $1M when global liquidity reaches ~$142T. The question is, when will that happen?
If we assume that global liquidity continues to increase at the same average rate it has been for the last decade, then that will happen towards the end of 2029.
That means, bitcoin will reach $1M in about ~5 years time.
#bullish #BitcoinPrice #AnotherModel #GlobalLiquidity #liquidity
https://m.primal.net/LDhe.pnghttps://m.primal.net/LDho.png
https://m.primal.net/LBjL.png
Here's a log-log chart of the #bitcoin price in relation to global M2. As you can see, the trend is a straight line, indicating a power law relationship. An R squared of 0.9 is astonishing, indicating very high correlation.
This is an important relationship to be aware of. Many prominent bitcoin analysts are beginning to highlight this as global M2 trends upward again.
Thanks, great report. One thing: You mention the correlation between BTC and global M2 is 0.94 but don't say how you came to that number? I'm interested in what method was used here.
another way to put this is that it simply HAS to keep increasing for the system to remain stable. If you look at a chart of US M2, it's been increasing exponentially for the past 50+ years. It's the debt based system and rising debt within that system that requires continual expansion of the money supply.
Why Quantum computing won't be a threat to #bitcoin any time soon:
First, some basic things to understand...
Quantum computers are computers that operate on the principles of quantum mechanics, which states that the properties of particles (e.g., spin) are described as existing in a superposition of states (i.e., there is no fixed state) until measured, at which point a definite state is observed.
Classical computers use transistors that can be in one of two states (0 or 1). These are controlled via logic gates. However, quantum computers are based on "qubits" (quantum bits) which can exist in a superposition (i.e., a linear combination of 0 and 1).
The probability that a qubit will "collapse" to either 0 or 1 once measured is related to the amplitude for that particular quantum state. Thus the workings of a quantum computer involve manipulating these amplitudes through quantum gates.
Now, quantum computers do not work by processing multiple solutions at the same time and then automatically outputting the correct answer.
Instead, quantum algorithms are designed to manipulate the amplitudes of various possible states through interference, enhancing the probability of correct solutions and canceling out incorrect ones. This process increases the likelihood that, when you measure the system, you get a useful answer!
This is where things get troublesome...
Today's largest quantum computer (from IBM) has 1,000 qubits. But the number of amplitudes grows by 2^n where n = the number of qubits. Thus there are 2^1000 amplitudes (i.e., parameters) to manipulate. That's more than the number of atoms in the observable universe!!
Okay, say they somehow manage to figure out how to manipulate that many parameters in an efficient way, the real question is, how many qubits would you need to crack modern cryptography? Such as that used in #bitcoin?
You would need millions of qubits...
That means having the ability to precisely control and manipulate more than 2^1000000 parameters, an absolutely astronomically large number. Good luck!
Perhaps it could be achieved one day, perhaps it never will. We don't know. But the point is, bitcoin is perfectly safe, and will be for some time!
#quantumcomputers #bitcoin #quantum #cryptography
MicroStrategy now holds 252,220 bitcoin worth $15,877,501,220! That's about 1.2% of the entire #bitcoin supply (and they will never be diluted).
If you owned 1.2% of the total FIAT in existence, you would be worth multiple trillions of dollars.
https://m.primal.net/KwfG.png
#MicroStrategy #Saylor
I ran a survey a couple months ago to gauge #bitcoin sentiment among stock investors. I was expected the majority of them to be in the "it's a scam" or "it's a bubble" camp, but I was pleasantly surprised.
3% said they didn't know anything about it
3% said they thought it was a scam
15% said it was a bubble
32% said they'd put 1-5% of their portfolio into it
24% said it's vital for preserving purchasing power
24% said it's revolutionary and likely to change the world
#BitcoinEducation at work!
https://m.primal.net/Kuim.png
This is a great chart. BTC price (black) and global M2 (blue). The two are highly correlated, as is often pointed our by @Dr. Jeff.
Historically, #bitcoin bull markets have coincided with increases in global M2... which has just begun to increase again now. Hold on to your hats!
#bullish
Source: bgeometrics
Right. The bull market in 2021 was cut short, in large part due to China banning mining and sending the hash rate plummeting. After that was the FTX fiasco. I don't know if SBF was manipulating the BTC price, but those two things definitely had an impact.
#bitcoin network mining difficulty just hit a new all time high 🤯
Difficulty has been increasing exponentially, in line with rapid growth in hash rate.
Such strong network fundamentals are #bullish signals for bitcoin!
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#bitcoin startup funding by category (not complete data):
A lot of money going into infrastructure development (not surprising!). There's also a lot of funding going to liquid staking protocols. People will always chase yield apparently, even with an asset that has a 50% CAGR...
#funding #startup #buildonbitcoin
According to my simple #bitcoin pricing model based on US liquidity growth, the bitcoin price will hit $1M when US M2 reaches roughly $28T (currently $21T).
Assuming US M2 continues to increase at the same average rate that it has been increasing for the last 15 years, this will happen in late 2028/early 2029 (approximately 4 years from now).
That seems a tad optimistic to me, but who knows!
https://www.caseyrb.com/bitcoin-m2-pricing-model/
https://m.primal.net/KqOR.png
According to the #bitcoin M2 pricing model, the price *should* have reached a high of ~$100k ish in 2021 before the bull market was cut short, making a retracement down to $50/$60k completely normal.
https://m.primal.net/KoVu.png
Here is an interesting model I've been playing around with. It's a model of the #bitcoin price based on US M2 money supply growth.
A couple of things to note:
1) The model captures the 2021 bull market that was cut short due to China banning bitcoin mining.
2) It's difficult to make predictions based on this model as that relies on accurately forecasting M2 growth. Having said that, M2 has been following an exponential curve for about 50 years!
3) It's almost certainly wrong, but there is, nonetheless, an undeniable correlation between #btc price and M2.
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