Paper #Bitcoin
Many folks like to argue that derivatives markets suppress the $BTC price, and stop number going up.
In this piece, I argue the opposite, that number go up will be hard without them.
My latest piece is below for Checkonchain subscribers.
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/paper-bitcoin-01
Devil's Advocate.
My latest #Bitcoin analysis is live for _checkonchain subscribers.
In this piece, I assessed almost every metric I have on charts.checkonchain.com to develop the most robust bear case I could, and check my bullish bias.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/devils-advocate
With #Bitcoin Options in the headlines, I figured it was a good time to share an options 101 with _checkonchain subscribers.
I cover:
- What options are (calls/Puts)
- Options Buyers vs Sellers
- The Greeks (Delta, Vega, Theta)
- Example strategies
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/options-101-derivatives-masterclass
Beating the House Odds in #Bitcoin.
The latest @_checkonchain newsletter is out examining how often Bitcoin trades up, down or sideways.
From this, we can demonstrate strategies for HODLers to amplify their advantage, and put the odds in their favour.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/beating-the-house-odds
#Bitcoin Demand Doldrums.
The latest analysis piece is out for @_checkonchain subscribers.
Today I share two perspectives:
- Hard realities by Check the Analyst
- What Check the HODLer is doing with that information.
Enjoy folks!
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/demand-doldrums
The latest episode of the _checkonchain Rough Consensus podcast is live with my market mentor Doc Severson.
Doc has taught me so much about market psychology, and I have used many of these skills to improve my understanding of Bitcoin onchain data.
I really enjoyed this conversation, and I have no doubt others will too.
https://youtu.be/J8rEAoHDYOI
Inflationary Illusions.
My latest #Bitcoin research piece is out for _checkonchain subscribers, examining why this cycle, ATH, and market feels different to prior ones.
What if we never made a real ATH at all?
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/inflationary-illusions
I think you're exactly right about that. My read is that we're probably more undervalued than people think, since we tend to act off how we feel as much as what we see.
The counter point would be people may get frustrated earlier, and 'take what they can get', although I suspect Bitcoiners in particular have overcome a lot of this with experience and study.
Today I learned that the _checkonchain newsletter is the #1 substack publication in Australia 🦘
Feeling very humbled, thank you to all of our subscribers who helped us get here.
https://m.primal.net/KfEd.jpg
The latest _checkonchain subscriber Q&A session is live.
I cover three topics in a 1hr video:
1) Why I hold gold alongside #Bitcoin
2) How I think about $BTC Miners
3) A routine of metrics I use to assess blood is in the streets before I stack sats.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/how-to-identify-blood-in-the-streets
Given everything happening in Brazil, I wonder if a decentralised, uncensorable, scarce, digital, global monetary asset might be useful for the world right about now.
Is anyone building something like this?
The Sell-side Risk Ratio is one of my all time favourite #Bitcoin metrics.
It is a tool that helps track trend exhaustion, market instability, and equilibrium.
The Sell-side Risk Ratio Masterclass is now live for _checkonchain subscribers.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/masterclass-sell-side-risk-ratio
congrats mate, what a great run. You and the team should be incredibly proud of WBD, it changed the Bitcoin world.
All the best with the new show, and you've given me a reason to return to London (and visit Bedford for a match).
In case folks didn't know, there is a full suite of Bitcoin charts available over at charts.checkonchain.com
All free, onchain, ETFs, derivatives and comparisons with TradFi.
https://m.primal.net/KRCS.png
Folks, one pro tip I recommend for everyone, is to ignore all commentary related to exchange balances that isn't coming from a serious professional analyst (even then, question it...).
Few data providers do a good job tracking the wallets, few analysts understand the data, and what is available is almost exclusively noise and click bait. The nuances are beyond ridiculous, and the problem is endlessly dynamic.
inflows, outflows, balances and supply squeezes. It has no relevance to price or the market, and should be ignored in the vast majority of circumstances.
Don't whale watch kids.
Learn the onchain basics.
Realised Cap
MVRV
SOPR
if you can master those, you will be 5x better at picking market opportunities and risks than the average bear.
impossible to know. I did cover this topic in detail during two monthly Q&As recently.
But we cannot measure the sold vs withdrawn, exchange flows will not have the answer as all coins were distributed via exchanges.
HODLers are selling millions of dollars worth of coin every day. They have done for several months.
This is why things move slower, the capital needs to be larger, and the higher it goes, the more bitcoiners step off the train (with a fraction of their holdings)
Oddbean new post about login | logout
Notes by _Checkmatey_ | export