The issue with this is that whenever Bitcoin does go up like 5x, a lot of sellers *do* materialize. So it takes a lot more DCAing that one might think.
Like when the ETFs were gobbling up a lot of bitcoin, much faster than it was being generated, and people assumed it must go to the moon soon. In reality, there was also a lot of sellers out of cold storage from people who bought years ago.
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Daily demand vs daily mined bitcoin is kinda 2D thinking in a 3D world.
Markets are complex, there is a seller for every buyer.
What approach would you recommend? Tweaked DCA? Increasing your purchase when people are selling and driving down the value of bitcoin against fiat?
This is why bitcoin will always be available
Everybody has a price even for #bitcoin
Also ETFs are not going to sell at x2. Just like Bitcoin holders in cold Wallets.
Although with so many eyes on the ETFs buying and selling. Who knows what the dynamics will be like in this cycle for cash out 🤔
Things move slower up here at $1Trillion.
Do they though? If anything, they should move faster…we’re not getting the institutional commitment “game theory” bitcoiners would expect at this stage.
HODLers are selling millions of dollars worth of coin every day. They have done for several months.
This is why things move slower, the capital needs to be larger, and the higher it goes, the more bitcoiners step off the train (with a fraction of their holdings)
Therefor, there is no such thing as a “supply shock”. Price goes up -> long term holders start moving coin. Which is perfect, cuz it assures everyone can get some.
I think of the DCA folks more like a downside put. If we 5x I will definitely rotate out of some of my etf positions in my brokerage. Won’t do anything with my cold storage dca strategy, just keep trucking.
I wonder if the ETFs will find a way to rehypothecate bitcoin and manipulate the price, like they do with gold/silver ETFs...?
It would be a long term massive risk against an absolutely fixed asset like bitcoin, and would probably have to be some off-chain shenanigans, but has always worried me about them.
As time goes on there will always be more folks from two epochs prior that have big gains they are prepared to swap for lifestyle changes.
The next wave of dApps will combine real-world use cases with Bitcoin staking, driving adoption. BTCFi is on the horizon. This is the way.
Anybody: bullish thoughts
Lyn: well aCkChUaLlY not yet
Me: dang, Lyn has a point
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I have to believe there are a lot of people who bought during the 2021 run that have been suffering from get-back-to-even-itis the last 3 years who are just happy to do so. Still lots of selling from that cohort imho.
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