Paper #Bitcoin

Many folks like to argue that derivatives markets suppress the $BTC price, and stop number going up.

In this piece, I argue the opposite, that number go up will be hard without them.

My latest piece is below for Checkonchain subscribers.

https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/paper-bitcoin-01


Devil's Advocate.

My latest #Bitcoin analysis is live for _checkonchain subscribers.

In this piece, I assessed almost every metric I have on charts.checkonchain.com to develop the most robust bear case I could, and check my bullish bias.

https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/devils-advocate


With #Bitcoin Options in the headlines, I figured it was a good time to share an options 101 with _checkonchain subscribers.

I cover:
- What options are (calls/Puts)
- Options Buyers vs Sellers
- The Greeks (Delta, Vega, Theta)
- Example strategies

https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/options-101-derivatives-masterclass


Beating the House Odds in #Bitcoin.

The latest @_checkonchain newsletter is out examining how often Bitcoin trades up, down or sideways.

From this, we can demonstrate strategies for HODLers to amplify their advantage, and put the odds in their favour.

https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/beating-the-house-odds


#Bitcoin Demand Doldrums.

The latest analysis piece is out for @_checkonchain subscribers.

Today I share two perspectives:
- Hard realities by Check the Analyst
- What Check the HODLer is doing with that information.

Enjoy folks!

https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/demand-doldrums


I think you're exactly right about that. My read is that we're probably more undervalued than people think, since we tend to act off how we feel as much as what we see.

The counter point would be people may get frustrated earlier, and 'take what they can get', although I suspect Bitcoiners in particular have overcome a lot of this with experience and study.


The latest episode of the _checkonchain Rough Consensus podcast is live with my market mentor Doc Severson.

Doc has taught me so much about market psychology, and I have used many of these skills to improve my understanding of Bitcoin onchain data.

I really enjoyed this conversation, and I have no doubt others will too.

https://youtu.be/J8rEAoHDYOI


nailed it. This is exactly how I think about it, and I learned a lot running this study too.


Inflationary Illusions.

My latest #Bitcoin research piece is out for _checkonchain subscribers, examining why this cycle, ATH, and market feels different to prior ones.

What if we never made a real ATH at all?

https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/inflationary-illusions


Today I learned that the _checkonchain newsletter is the #1 substack publication in Australia 🦘

Feeling very humbled, thank you to all of our subscribers who helped us get here.

https://m.primal.net/KfEd.jpg


The latest _checkonchain subscriber Q&A session is live.

I cover three topics in a 1hr video:
1) Why I hold gold alongside #Bitcoin
2) How I think about $BTC Miners
3) A routine of metrics I use to assess blood is in the streets before I stack sats.

https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/how-to-identify-blood-in-the-streets


Playing with Fire.

My latest market analysis piece is live for Checkonchain subscribers.

https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/bitcoin-playing-with-fire-onchain-analysis-market-update?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2swa18


Given everything happening in Brazil, I wonder if a decentralised, uncensorable, scarce, digital, global monetary asset might be useful for the world right about now.

Is anyone building something like this?


The Sell-side Risk Ratio is one of my all time favourite #Bitcoin metrics.

It is a tool that helps track trend exhaustion, market instability, and equilibrium.

The Sell-side Risk Ratio Masterclass is now live for _checkonchain subscribers.

https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/masterclass-sell-side-risk-ratio


funny. i  posted the bellow. and just then i heard this. Joe is high signal. your podcast is now the highest signal in bitcoin macro land https://primal.net/e/note1r4fygn2agx2m5z34zyyjf3we3lunlkt8vyxg2m4xg6km4qrpcftsk5fr97


impossible to know. I did cover this topic in detail during two monthly Q&As recently.

But we cannot measure the sold vs withdrawn, exchange flows will not have the answer as all coins were distributed via exchanges.


The latest episode of the Rough Consensus podcast is live with Joe Caralsare.

This conversation was an absolute cracker, and Joe challenges so many of my priors throughout.

I think you're going to enjoy this one, I certainly did.

https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/rough-consensus-podcast-with-joe?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2swa18


the halvening

down 50% since the merge.


congrats mate, what a great run. You and the team should be incredibly proud of WBD, it changed the Bitcoin world.

All the best with the new show, and you've given me a reason to return to London (and visit Bedford for a match).


good luck fellas, looking forward to a few beers at Cheat Code.


no, really. I say this as someone more familiar with onchain data than most people in the world.


steady on...


The data is guaranteed to be incorrect. More likely moved to a new internal wallet and that data provider has not kept up.


happy to, what's your handle? same as here?


In case folks didn't know, there is a full suite of Bitcoin charts available over at charts.checkonchain.com

All free, onchain, ETFs, derivatives and comparisons with TradFi.

https://m.primal.net/KRCS.png


HODLers are selling millions of dollars worth of coin every day. They have done for several months.

This is why things move slower, the capital needs to be larger, and the higher it goes, the more bitcoiners step off the train (with a fraction of their holdings)


Learn the onchain basics.

Realised Cap
MVRV
SOPR

if you can master those, you will be 5x better at picking market opportunities and risks than the average bear.


One of the few exceptions, SanI is a serious and professional analyst.


Folks, one pro tip I recommend for everyone, is to ignore all commentary related to exchange balances that isn't coming from a serious professional analyst (even then, question it...).

Few data providers do a good job tracking the wallets, few analysts understand the data, and what is available is almost exclusively noise and click bait. The nuances are beyond ridiculous, and the problem is endlessly dynamic.

inflows, outflows, balances and supply squeezes. It has no relevance to price or the market, and should be ignored in the vast majority of circumstances.

Don't whale watch kids.


data is almost certainly wrong.

pro tip, ignore all exchange wallet commentary. It is almost always noise.


chopsolidation, it's good for the soul (and the bull)


Great to  nostr:npub1qh5sal68c8swet6ut0w5evjmj6vnw29x3k967h7atn45unzjyeyq6ceh9r back on Nostr

nostr:note1udkwntv2w8866l3f2yrlydr43xjt6rqrjg2f8j9ds6dyktegnqhqaa62j3


#asknostr


Will do Tom...im always thirsty, but not always in Brissy


Things move slower up here at $1Trillion.


Gday mate!


it's a maze and a half...


yes indeed. Love your handle too btw haha


yes, will see if it has legs.


will do from now on


thanks for the support!


Since everyone is jumping over to Nostr, I wanted to share my latest analysis video from behind the paywalled with you all.

Enjoy!

https://youtu.be/1pykSsDYc38?si=I5Ct2NitMrS2xdVi


Helping navigate #Bitcoin's volatility
Newsletter checkonchain.com
Onchain Analyst _checkonchain
Charting Suite charts.checkonchain.com


My latest piece is out for checkonchain subscribers.

this one looks at the tremendous sellside that the Bitcoin market has absorbed over the last 6 months.

I also compare the conditions to 2019, which is the most similar period by far.

https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/its-2019again?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2swa18


#Bitcoin onchain analysis masterclass is live covering the onchain originals price models.

in particular, the Cointime Price, True Market Mean, and Vaulted Price stand out as key levels where investor sentiment tends to shift.

https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/masterclass-onchain-originals-price?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2swa18

https://m.primal.net/INYO.jpg


The #Bitcoin ETFs saw around four weeks of outflows in April, worth around -$1.1B on net.

It took only 13-days for that to more than reverse, with over $1.6B worth of inflows, and eight +$100M inflow days in a row.

Feels like a second demand wave may be upon us.

Chart: https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/tradfi/tradfi_btc_etf_aum_1/tradfi_btc_etf_aum_1_light.html

https://image.nostr.build/4b61857568f5bcc10e1183fbde4580fdcc99ece8bc072e36e31e26dcc50b266c.jpg