Thoughtful note
Is your position that the relative increase in short term issuance drives down long term rates? Because the long term supply decreases against sticky fixed demand from institutions like insurance companies?
So you think maybe Yellens logic is “there’s not enough demand to finance the government via the long term. We don’t know how soft the long term demand is, so we will over issue on the short end just to be safe”?
To your hypothesis, many bitcoin thought leaders grabbed onto nouriel roubini’s recent paper on covert yield curve control.
Perhaps that’s the case but my view on it is Yellen is financing on the short end because rates are higher but something closer to floating. It’s akin to what many mortgage borrowers are doing right now - considering 3/1 ARMs over 30 year because they don’t want to lock a bad rate in for a long time.
The market has shown us no signs of reduced to demand for the long end (eg the inverted yield curve).
In fact, the swaps market is telling us rates across the curve should be lower. And Powells interest rate policy has held both the long and short end 200-300bps higher than the market expects based on future growth expectations.
These convos are super important.
I’m let down by Bitcoin culture when these convos are dismissed out right. When a school of thought views itself as morally (and spiritually) superior we get more of the same. Brings to mind Animal Farm by Orwell.
What many miss is the work is never done. We don’t snap our fingers and things are better under Bitcoin. We remain a society that must organize itself.
Cheers
I’ve noticed the same.
The TAM for CT is larger with price, etf, saylor, macro talk because it can appeal to nocoiners. It also takes no little work to talk about price and regurgitate saylor talking points.
It’s quite sad that Bitcoin seems to be following that crowds lead and leaving the cypherpunks behind.
Even Adam Beck posts regularly about MSTR and does ETF spaces.
People who do not believe in god do not have “faith” in that belief. Faith is a state of the unsure, not the sure. Faith is being certain in the uncertain. Whereas agnosticism is being uncertain of the uncertain.
I find it astounding people have faith in their God and that all other gods or a lack of gods are false.
Both Powell and Yellen say they are not worried about a repeat of 2008, and admit many small and regionals will face “issues” (eg will go under). This won’t bring down their banking system immediately because the TBTF banks don’t have the risk exposure.
Just like the Cleveland banks of 1930, the uninsured depositors will be wiped, their loans though won’t be wiped, they will be sold to JP and the like to collect on the loans and warehouse insured deposits.
Meanwhile JP is expanding its small bank footprint https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-chase-plans-massive-branch-network-expansion-while-small-banks-implode
Hm, tough to say. If they allow it if expect it then be in separate products - one with and one without staking. Staking looks and smells like rehypothecating or stock lending. I think/hope the largest ETFs do not do this but I’m not certain.
Nice work on WBD the other day. Always appreciate your thoughts. Cheers.
Wow. I’d never heard that though I’m not surprised. Seems like things have taken various forms of propaganda along the way. Victors and frauds write history - that’s why Bitcoin and nostr are so important
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