Oddbean new post about login | logout Don't look now, but it seems that the regional banking crisis is beginning to reemerge after almost a year of hibernation. https://tftc.io/bank-runs-are-back-on-the-menu/
Is your bank running Marty? You better go catch it 🏦 🏃
Bank failure is the nickname of my aborted first child.
Like with all crisis, banking officials will lie and fool the masses until the last minute, that is their job. Proof in video below with FDIC board openly weighing inevitable bail-ins against bank runs. It's strange they would allow this to be recorded, but even if fake, the signs are there. https://www.landmarkgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/FDIC-Video.mp4
When was this meeting?
Good morning! Cockadoodledoo (TX time). Good article. The deleveraging will continue. Central bankers aren't immune to gravity. Nature wins, eventually and always.
Last year we were told lots of regional banks would fail after SVB & those other three banks failed but none have. And for several years there's been dire warnings of economic collapse that haven't materialized. Loads of prediction in 2022 that in Q3 or Q4 we'd have a recession & then those predictions were pushed back to 2023 & now very few predictions on when a recession will occur. I used to listen to all that stuff & assume these thing would happen. Now I just ignore it all.
Both Powell and Yellen say they are not worried about a repeat of 2008, and admit many small and regionals will face “issues” (eg will go under). This won’t bring down their banking system immediately because the TBTF banks don’t have the risk exposure. Just like the Cleveland banks of 1930, the uninsured depositors will be wiped, their loans though won’t be wiped, they will be sold to JP and the like to collect on the loans and warehouse insured deposits. Meanwhile JP is expanding its small bank footprint https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-chase-plans-massive-branch-network-expansion-while-small-banks-implode
https://media1.tenor.com/m/I5-8o6EJqkMAAAAC/hell-yeah-brother-hulk-hogan.gif nostr:nevent1qqspvqgrwqscpvugex9zwec8d3gxhqzwslvs4rken4ham8t0p38ysecpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfdupzq3e0gs8jnmued6f2rp4c6vs07xqvs4vs8zpwt82smcdch4txjvq7qvzqqqqqqywrgzqh
What people don't understand is that low interest rates don't create economic growth, they create bubbles. Their low interest rates for 10 years are like somebody going on a heroin binge for 10 years, and then expecting there to be no withdrawal pains. The Fed can not allocate money more thoughtfully than the market. Lets say a uninfluenced market wants to loan money out at 6%, and then the fed comes along and effectively prints up a shit-lode of money, and loans it out at 1%. But well, there was a reason the market was choosing 6%. While you can effectively print up and loan out an infinite amount of money, society doesn't have an infinite amount of resources at it's disposal to build things. Those higher interest rates force society to choose priorities. Unfortunately, under the fed system, most of those priorities are government spending, and stock and housing bubbles.
They want the fireworks to begin near the halving because they know bitcoin is going to do what it do regardless of their policy and the only thing they can really influence is people’s behavior. They’re dialing up maximum fear to divert capital away from bitcoin.
