“The company trades at a 50% premium, with more volatility and ARR, we can build a company that has a 100% premium to $150bn worth of bitcoin and build a $300-400bn company with the biggest options market, the biggest equity market, and then we basically start to chew into the fixed income markets, and we just keep buying more bitcoin. Bitcoin is going to go to millions a coin, you know, and then we create a trillion dollar company.” - @saylor on $MSTR and #Bitcoin
Bitcoin is not a speculative investment if you spend thousands of hours studying it before making a rational investment decision.
People who don’t put their time in often think bitcoin is speculative.
MicroStrategy $MSTR is the heaviest star in the Bitcoin universe, its immense mass (252,220 bitcoins) drawing in everything around it. The greater its weight, the stronger its gravitational pull, attracting liquidity from every corner of the equity market.
I joined pre-ETF. I don’t put Bitcoin on exchanges because I don’t trust them. Institutional custody was expensive and difficult to onboard. I have to do self-custody and I ended up with multisig setup.
I wonder how many Bitcoiners that joined post ETF are doing this.
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If you watch Saylor, you know he has demonstrated a masterclass of Bitcoin treasury strategy.
He uses cashflow, CB, and ATM to buy Bitcoin.
And the most difficult part of his bitcoin strategy is being patient and focus.
Like most of Bitcoiners, he has suffered 70% drawdowns during the bear market. He didn’t sell or venture out. He simply HODL.
Innovative development in the ETF world by
Bitwise, launching Bitcoin strategy ETFs with active management.
I think with reasonable fee, demand will be there. However, I believe $MSTR is the better choice here.
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Rep Khanna: "Bitcoin that has been seized by the US government should be used as a strategic reserve asset given its potential for appreciation."
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Bitcoin is uniquely positioned among asset classes, poised to benefit the most from the global easing cycle, including the Fed's rate cuts and China's "Big Gun" stimulus efforts.
For the first time, U.S. banks are now allowed to custody Bitcoin, and options trading for Bitcoin ETFs is about to begin.
With only 21 million Bitcoin ever in existence, all the catalysts for a supply shock are falling into place.
Long #Bitcoin.
The Fed is on the easing cycle.
Europe and Canada are cutting rates.
China just brings out the biggest stimulus package.
The set up is great for risk asset in general.
I will long Bitcoin and Asia.
Coinbase is not the only crypto custodian in town when multiple banks start to offer custody solution under regulation.
Custody of coin will diversify. It is in investors’ best interest to do so.
This is the cycle where traditional financial firms will dominate the Bitcoin market, whether you like it or not.
However, their influence and power will gradually decrease over time as new technologies built on Bitcoin emerge and eventually take over.
Bitcoin catalysts in the next 12 months:
- Option market for Bitcoin ETFs will be available for trading.
- Banks will be able to custody Bitcoin.
- Banks will offer Bitcoin backed loans.
I listened to @saifedean and @saylor's recent podcast, which sparked controversy for many listeners on the issue of BTC yield.
My takeaway is that both sides can be valid in the non-binary world we live in.
Someone like Saifedean would keep his Bitcoin in cold storage, avoiding any risk for yield. On the other hand, someone like Saylor might choose to risk a portion of his Bitcoin for yield.
There’s no right or wrong, just differing risk appetites and approaches to risk management.
In the future, corporations like banks will offer institutional-grade Bitcoin yield products, unlike what we saw with Celsius and BlockFi.
This future will coexist alongside Bitcoin in cold storage, and it’s a wonderful scenario where capitalism provides users with options. I don’t view it as a bad or fiat like idea.
Hezbollah exploding pager story is a wild cyber attack.
This leads me to think about Bitcoin hardware like nodes, cold wallets and miners.
They can be a target of cyber hacking.
I wake up every morning using Grok to digest the newest update on the topic I followed the most. It’s very convenient.
I hope Nostr can have sth equivalent.
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I felt the same when I embarked on our investment in Bitcoin, trying to break the generational curse and turn it into generational wealth. Some people criticize, while others encourage.
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There is overwhelming support and consensus on soft landing. The Fed wants it so do the market. However, the unemployment data is telling a different story.
Allen Litchtman, the man who successfully predicted the U.S. presidential election in the past 40 years, is predicting Kamala Harris will win.
If he placed his bet on his prediction each time, he would turn 1 dollars into 1024 dollars. That’s 102400% of compounding return.
https://youtu.be/xE22XjWEyQE?si=sIIYL8PgJDAXbDyx
The equity market has top for now and it’s just starting to go through a correction sparked by the unemployment rate and the weaker economy. The AI sector is cooling off for now until Nvidia’s BlackWell release in Q4. Whether or not we have entered a recession is unknown, but any bad economy data will continue to drive the market lower. The market can still have a strong rally but it will depends on strong overriding on the current trend in the unemployment data.
The good news is the Fed will cut rate and release liquidity to the market but the effect will not immediately affect the market price action. It tends to kick a month or two before the market bottoms.
I could be wrong and I am wrong often.
The market will not respond to liquidity increase and the Fed cut until few months later. Meanwhile market is in consolidation or mid-cycle correction.
Bitcoin is leading the equity market in a potentially volatile period.
BTC is down 20% from ATH while S&P only down 2% from ATH, meaning there is more downside to go if equity follows BTC.
Be responsibly long.
The fact that Bitcoin hasn’t reached an all-time high in terms of gold reflects that broader market participants view Bitcoin as a risk-on asset rather than risk-off. This perception is likely to change in the foreseeable future, but not in the near term.
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