Fiat monetary debasement is gaining traction, as reflected in the fiat price of the world’s only neutral energy money: #Bitcoin.
I expect this trend to continue—and actually accelerate—in the coming 12-14 months.
My favorite page on the StLouisFed .org (FRED) site:
"Buying eggs with bitcoins."
OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS...
From September 2019 through September 2024, the price of a dozen eggs:
- In US dollars: Up +177%, from $1.38 to $3.82.
https://m.primal.net/LSkU.png
- In #bitcoin: Down -55%, from 14,119 sats to 6,310 sats.
https://m.primal.net/LSkZ.png
CONCLUSION: Life gets constantly more expensive the longer you save in dollars (or any government fiat currency), while it generally gets (much) cheaper the longer you save in #bitcoin.
Inflationary fiat currency versus neutral inelastic energy money...
The choice is yours.
Source:
https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/06/buying-eggs-with-bitcoins/
Nothing has changed for me from a macro standpoint.
I expect economic growth, inflation, and global M2 to all mildly accelerate from here, which is generally good for risk assets and should be fantastic for bitcoin.
I thought it might surprise to the downside, but it didn’t.
Regardless, nothing has changed for me from a macro standpoint.
I expect economic growth, inflation, and global M2 to all mildly accelerate from here, which is generally good for risk assets and should be fantastic for bitcoin.
lol... my CPI guess was... wrong!
Core Inflation Rate MoM: 0.3% vs 0.2% (forecast) and 0.3% (prior)
Core Inflation Rate YoY: 3.3% vs 3.2% (forecast) and 3.3% (prior)
Inflation Rate MoM: 0.2% vs 0.1% (forecast) and 0.2% (prior)
Inflation Rate YoY: 2.4% vs 2.3% (forecast) and 2.5% (prior)
#macro
That's what I get for making (another) public prediction. 😂
Ironically, my expectations for the USD, interest rates, risk assets, and #bitcoin may actually work out over the coming days/weeks because of another important data point...
Initial Jobless Claims: 258k vs 230k (forecast) and 225k (prior)
This gives the Fed the ongoing excuse to lower the Fed Funds rate as they turn their attention from inflation to employment.
Regardless, that was fun.
Onwards. ⚡
nostr:note1thhtvw0k3w7gyvu3g3xg7qu04mv8d0fec83cf42uaq8xunw0v4ksdd664v
lol... my CPI guess was... wrong!
Core Inflation Rate MoM: 0.3% vs 0.2% (forecast) and 0.3% (prior)
Core Inflation Rate YoY: 3.3% vs 3.2% (forecast) and 3.3% (prior)
Inflation Rate MoM: 0.2% vs 0.1% (forecast) and 0.2% (prior)
Inflation Rate YoY: 2.4% vs 2.3% (forecast) and 2.5% (prior)
#macro
That's what I get for making (another) public prediction. 😂
Ironically, my expectations for the USD, interest rates, risk assets, and #bitcoin may actually work out over the coming days/weeks because of another important data point...
Initial Jobless Claims: 258k vs 230k (forecast) and 225k (prior)
This gives the Fed the ongoing excuse to lower the Fed Funds rate as they turn their attention from inflation to employment.
Regardless, that was fun.
Onwards. ⚡
nostr:note1thhtvw0k3w7gyvu3g3xg7qu04mv8d0fec83cf42uaq8xunw0v4ksdd664v
My stupid worthless non-investable short-term predictions which are not any sort of individual advice:
- The Oct. 10 US CPI will "surprise" many to the downside... "lower than expected!!"
Soon thereafter:
- The US dollar (which has recently been surging) will rollover and head lower
- Interest rates (which have recently been surging) will rollover and head lower
- VIX (which has recently spiked) will turn lower
- Risk assets will resume their uptrend
- #bitcoin will make bold moves higher... since the next leg of the bull market has officially begun (slowly at first, then exponential in 2H 2025)
- Ironically, #inflation has likely already bottomed (as partially reflected in the coming low September CPI print) and should trend slowly higher over the coming couple of quarters
All proof of stake #crypto arguments boil down to this... Even from otherwise intelligent people:
"It's relevant because I own some and the price is going up. Also, the price is going up, proving that it is relevant."
Lots of reasons.
But a primary one is that Canadian free markets have been almost completely co-opted by the central authorities.
Centrally-controlled markets are dysfunctional, by definition.
I think George means well and obviously attracts a certain personality type.
Thanks to @Jeff Booth and @LynAlden, he is slowly coming around to #Bitcoin.
No. I generally despise debates, as they often devolve into angry displays of arrogance.
I enjoy having conversations with people who are genuinely interested and truly love to learn.
Just finished my quarterly (4Q 2024) memo for clients of Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund.
Note that I am limited by the regulators as to what I can share publicly (especially regarding unaudited results/returns), so I am sharing what I can in this edited copy for you.
It's a little confusing, as many numbers are XX'd for privacy.
Hopefully you will still find it useful.
Cheers!
https://conta.cc/4eRZbTS
A brief update on...
- US Net Liquidity (top blue line): Still chopping sideways since April 2022.
OPINION #1: US based assets (think micro/small/mid-cap stocks) are likely to continue to chop sideways until US net liquidity momentum moves decidedly higher.
- Global M2 monetary supply (approximate, lower blue line): This has decisively broken higher over the past several months and is unlikely to contract meaningfully in the coming 12 months or so.
OPINION #2: This upside breakout of global M2 bodes well for the price action of global assets like #bitcoin, #gold, and US megacap technology stocks.
Just my opinions, of course.
https://m.primal.net/LLKv.png
I don't know who needs to hear this today, but most Economists--especially the famous ones--have mid-to-terrible investment track records.
Choose carefully to whom you listen.
Engineers, definitely.
Having an emotion-free, iterative, systematic investment process is a huge advantage over the vast majority of emotional market participants.
September unemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% (expected) and 4.2% (prior)
September US nonfarm payrolls: +254k vs +132.5k (expected) and +159k (prior; revised from +142k)
The Doom and Gloomers and Recessionistas are... wait for it... wrong again.
#macro
Onwards.
🐂
Yup.
Inflationary money is abominable and leads to two classes of Americans: the Owner class and the Renter class.
The Renter class has experienced a slowly and steadily worsening of their quality of life over the past 50 years or so.
Meanwhile, the Owner (stocks, real estate, bitcoin, etc.) class have enjoyed a stable or steadily improving quality of life over the same time period.
#Bitcoin will eventually fix this.
Regarding the US dollar:
I continue to believe it will be *generally* weaker over the coming 12 months or so... with the $DXY heading sub-100.
However, the recent surge lower has moved the dollar to OVERSOLD levels, and an impressive POSITIVE DIVERGENCE has occurred (see chart below... straight red line and straight green line).
This suggests, to me, that we will see a multi-day or multi-week bounce higher in the US dollar--the strength of which may impede any short-term rallies in risk assets or even #bitcoin.
After the expected bounce higher, hopefully before the end of October 2024, I think that the next #bitcoin bull market (in fiat terms) will begin in earnest.
Just my two sats. Feel free to disregard.
#macro
https://m.primal.net/LHVw.png
For your contemplation... 👀
Green vertical lines marking September 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 (current) on the monthly #bitcoin chart.
This is the point of the cycle where the bears are seemingly victorious and increasingly insufferable.
This is your last chance to bail before upside volatility (likely) begins to take hold in earnest.
It is your last chance to fill the next four years of your financial life with serious regret.
IF YOU DON'T SELL YOUR BITCOIN IN SEPTEMBER 2024, YOU MAY BE FORCED TO RIDE THE ROCKET HIGHER OVER THE COMING 12-15 MONTHS. 🚀
You have been warned.
https://m.primal.net/KhIC.png
People who complain about waiting 30 minutes or so for a #Bitcoin base layer transaction to go through...
Have you ever waited for a new bank ACH or wire transfer to process?
https://m.primal.net/Kfkc.png
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