Q. what to make of Denise Coates (head of Bet365)?
She's one of Britain's richest people, yet most of her wages go through Bet365's payroll making her one the UK's largest tax-payers; she support (extensively) a range of charities & invests widely in the local economy....
But, of course, her firm revolutionised gambling & for many compounded the social problems associated with gambling addiction.
If you want to think about it further try this long read.
#gambling
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/oct/02/the-ultimate-gambler-how-denise-coates-became-britains-richest-woman
@Meme-Bratt
Well, as I understand it a strike is a refusal or withdrawn of work while under contract.... when the contract ends & no new one is in place, that is not a withdrawal of labour its the end of the contract..... indeed, the employers have been trying to get a negotiated extension to the contract while talks continue, but the unions refused... hence, no contract & so no legal agreement to work at all.
Interestingly the walk-out by dock-workers in the USA (across a range of ports on the East coast) is being presented as a 'strike, but, as far as I can see its workers refusing to work without a contract.
Negotiations for a new contract (which deals with concerns about low pay & how automation is expanded) continue, but as the existing contract ended on Monday night, surely workers refusing to continue working is not a strike, it is a reasonable refusal to work without a contract?
#USpol
Aha, we're back in the world of serial announcements...
Rachel Reeves has now added to her previously announced commitment to halve the number of consultants used by Govt. departments, a requirement for top civil servant or ministerial sign-off on contracts.... err, surely that would have already have been happening (or should have been)?
In any case, we can expect announcement the third when the Autumn Budget includes the posited £1bn as part of her budgetary projections.
#politics
h/t FT
More evidence that the crisis in the NHS engineered by the Tories is another act of economic self-harm.... having wrecked our external economic relations with Brexit, they undermined our internal (domestic) economic activity by producing a massive health-related expansion in the economically inactive.
This is what the Tories' disaster capitalists chums wanted & got!
[to be clear the NHS crisis should not only be measured by its significant economic impact]
#economics
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/17/uk-ill-health-economic-growth-ippr
Playing a gig this afternoon for friends' 50th wedding anniversary, spun this for them & had forgotten just how brilliant it is....
These boots are made for stamping on fascists.... or walkin' if you prefer!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbyAZQ45uww
I don't know about you but I'm sick to death of commentators on wages looking at the last two or three quarters & claiming that because wages are now often growing above inflation that all is much better for workers....
NO NO NO - look at the longer term to see how real wages remain in many cases BELOW those enjoyed in 2007/8.
Just because pay rises are above inflation now does not undo over a decade of falling real wages....
[grinding of teeth]
#workers #inflation #economics
it now seems clear that GB Energy, to be set up in the next few months by the Labour Govt. will focus on expanding the provision of off-shore wind power generation, by working closely with the Crown Estates (already doing well from the sector) and seeking to de-risk investment in the sector.
Of course, off-shore wind in many ways is more expensive than its onshore version, but does side-step the planning friction(s) often encountered... but interconnection issues remain!
#energy #wind
h/t FT
We know universities are in crisis, driven by the increasingly problems in their current mode of funding. However, its not always clear how this is playing out across the sector.
So here's a UCU, university by university, list of actions managers have been taking to balance the books & its not a pretty sight.
Whether we will see failure, merge & restructuring is not yet completely clear, but its become a lot more likely in the last five years.
#universities #austerity
https://qmucu.org/qmul-transformation/uk-he-shrinking/
My two (far from original) initial take-aways from last night:
While Starmer & Labour now have a chance to show that there is an alternative to Tory chaos, their honeymoon might be pretty short & if fears of them being 'continuity Tory' are fulfilled then they may have no game-changing answers in any case....
and, given the election has been a story of a split on the Right, if Starmer fails to (quickly) convince, then a resurgent & merging Right looks like a real danger in 2029....
#politics
Other good news:
Jacob Rees Mogg has lost his seat... hurrah
Not so good news:
Jeremy Hunt has retained his... so we can expect more self-righteous commentary on the NHS crisis from one of the people who caused it in the first place....
#Election2024
You'll recall either from the original Frost interview (or from its dramatisation in Frost/Nixon) that Richard Nixon, declared: 'Well, when the president does it, that means that it is not illegal'.... effectively placing the President above the law.
Well, finally the US Supreme Court seems to have caught up with President Nixon.
The declaration that for official acts the President is immune from prosecution, not only looks like a major dilution of the rule of law, its just dangerous!
#law
A not completely implausible scenario to fear:
Nigel Farage wins Clacton & becomes MP.
In post election Tory chaos, Reform suggest merger with Right-Tory rump.
Tory party splits with Reform uniting with ultra Right Tories & manage to retain party name.
Tory/Reform form 'official' opposition.
Leadership election which Farage wins.
Election 2025 between exhausted Labour party unable to fix the wreckage bequeathed to them by Tories vs. Farage 'the people's savour'!
unthinkable? God I hope so
If you're in Lancaster (UK) tonight & fancy a bit more Motown (either because you enjoyed ProfDJ's Motown night last week, or missed it), its happening again, this time at Runner Duck Wine Room (King St.) - as before Motown all night - Marvin, Diana, Stevie, The Four Tops, The Temptations and more....
see you there from 8.30.
#Lancaster #ProfDJ #motown #soul #vinyl #music
Of course, one of the the things we all need to be considering is how to vote tactically... so here for your consideration is one guide to how to vote tactically in your constituency.
Just type in you postcode for advice (based on polling) on how you might vote tactically to get the Tories out (or if you have other priorities, how to maximise the impact of your vote under the current FPTP system)
#election #tacticalvoting
https://tactical.vote
So the Environmental Agency, is embarrassed to reveal the true state of our environment...
They find it difficult to answer prescient questions from NGOs with significant expertise (the implications being, better informed that the EA staff) & (it would seem) would like the NGO's Q.s to be more simply put to help EA staff offer better answers?
If you wanted a picture of a failing regulatory agency this would be it....
#environment #regulation
From Liberty UK:
Last summer Suella Braverman changed the definition of “serious disruption” to mean “more than minor” – giving police huge powers to shut down protests.
Liberty said this move was undemocratic, unconstitutional and unacceptable.
The term ‘serious disruption’ comes from another Public Order Act from 1986. The Home Secretary has the power to *clarify* what is meant by ‘serious’ – not completely change its meaning.
The Court agreed.
The police should stop using these powers.
Hmmmm.... so in 2028 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world's biggest computing chip manufacturer will start producing it next generation chips in Arizona....
This is being presented as a triumph of Biden's economic policies (a pull factor), but one cannot help but wonder whether there is also a significant issue of China's increasing belligerence towards Taiwan (a push factor) in the relocation?
#Taiwan #China #semiconductors
h/t FT
RIP Daniel Kahneman, who in one of the few nobel prizes awarded for non-orthodox economics, demonstrated that the standard assumption of rational market behaviour so misunderstood people's real motivations and actions as to render much economics too distant from real economic relations to be truly useful.
As he once said, his work relieved economics of 'an unrealistic conception of reality'...
#economics #markets
Spot a pattern:
COP28 President Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber used to work for the host state's oil company, but said ahead of the meeting they were turning in a green direction... then delivered a lame & indecisive COP:
COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev used to work for the host state's oil company, but said ahead of the meeting they were turning in a green direction...
Now I wonder how COP29 will turn out?
#COP29 #fossilfuels #ClimateCrisis
h/t FT
Commentators on US politics who are swinging round to blame POTUS Biden for a prospective Trump victory, are letting the US media & the country's toxic politics off the hook.
From over this side of the Atlantic it looks like Trump is not gaining ground because Biden is doing a bad job (whatever one thinks of his foreign policy), but because the media & Republicans have captured & reproduced a negative narrative about Biden's first term....
#politics #Biden #America
Another day, another Brexiter waking up & smelling the coffee....
Now, Jeffrey Sprecher (of finance house Intercontinental Exchange) has shifted his position:
2017: Hurrah the UK should 'have a bit of swagger' & celebrate being a low-tax, lightly regulated independent country...
2024: Uk not so attractive to international investors as there is no gateway to Europe & the UK is now a 'foreign country'.
Hmmm... it not like these issues are a surprise is in now Jeff?
#Brexit #finance
h/t FT
Over 20% of people between 16-64 are not actively looking for work; this includes students & the (early) retired; there has also been considerable coverage of the long-term sick in recent months.
The group who are not working due to care responsibilities are also important.
I posted recently on grandparents & childcare, and its now clear that the crisis in #socialcare is keeping some #workers at home!
This is why better social & #publicservices make economic sense!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68534537
One of the ways (metaphorically) of thinking about the likely impact of privatising healthcare in the UK is to look at how the market for veterinary services has worked.
Confirming the view of most pet owners I know (including myself) the Competition & Markets Authority has launched an investigation into overcharging for pet healthcare, including medicines.
As the sector is essentially a quasi oligopoly, it will be interning to see if the CMA demands a break up?
#pets #healthcare #oligopoly
As wage growth continues to slow in the UK, it will be interesting to see how the BoE will explain any residual inflation, given they are keen to avoid looking too closely at the 'maintenance' of profits....
Likely it will be the return of 'external factors' if they cannot keep blaming workers for seeking to repair their loving standards.
#inflation #workers #corporations
For this of you who have despaired at the plight of #BBC news coverage, let me recommend BBC Verify, which seems like a quiet bastion of proper news analysis which may revive your hope that there may be something to salvage from the wreckage of the BBC news coverage; I sometimes wonder how this has escaped the notice of the #Tories.
[You'll note from the web address that this used to be called 'reality check'; the shift in term/title may reveal some internal #politics?]
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/reality_check
#RishiSunak is in trouble with Sir Robert Chote (chair of the UK Statistics Authority) for claiming last month the 'debt was falling' when what he actually referring to was an OBR forecast that debt *would* likely fall in the future.
As Chote said 'the average person in the street [would...] likely have assumed that he was claiming that debt was already falling or that the government’s policy decisions had lowered it at fiscal events — neither of which is the case'!
Sunak can't help himself!
The #Tories malign attention to #education continues to wreck the system... so having slagged off #teachers, made their workload heavier, disrupted their work-life balance & generally making the sector difficult to work in, not only has recruitment into teaching dropped, and retention levels fallen, now in one year rates of early #retirement have gone up by 40%.
This is not the way to educate our coutnry, but perhaps that's the #Tories' aim?
for them educated #voters are dangerous!
There's been a lot of concern voiced about Sultan Al Jaber who will chair #COP28 while also heading up #UAE's state #Oil company...
Interestingly Fiona Harvey (Guardian) spent some time with him interviewing him (and following him around) on & off the record;
the result: an interesting profile of someone who will play a pivotal role for a period in our response to the #ClimateCrisis.
Try & decide whether he's acting in good faith or a wrecker?
Its still not clear!
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/07/meet-the-oil-man-tasked-with-saving-the-planet-cop28
@6579c52f@3527005f
Good Q.; one might hope that a new Givt. might look at the taxation issues... but, what's more interesting is that previous versions which have been established have in the end fallen out of use as they have actually little to offer the potential businesses wanting to use them
@65cb3dfd
Time to reclaim it perhaps... certainly in international politics it was linked to a pretty positive notion of a 'society of states' rather than an anarchic system where states only relied on themselves for security (the traditional 'realist' vision).
We all know that #arts funding is in crisis, but often the voices of those most effected (the #artists themselves) are less heard among the clamour from arts professionals worried about the future of their venues/organisations.... so you might want to look at the extensive views set out by the Artists' Citizens' Jury (form last year but recently published).
There's lots to read - I cannot summarise it here - but it will be worth a look if this is your field.
https://goldsmithscca.art/publication/elizabeth-price-and-nina-wakeford/
@65cb3dfd
A new medievalism?
This was a new that was quite common in international politics (for completely different reasons) some decades ago.... I suggest it not to be trite, but to try to capture what the physicality of a new localism might look like?
@65cb3dfd
Yes, this is an interesting idea... when I was teaching political economy the local, small-tech ideas of Schumacher were always intriguing to students looking for a full-scale redirection of our political economy... and I always think what's interesting about that approach is could be na organic ground-up response... achieved by communities working together; certainly on small scale hydro there are some interesting examples....
As we now look to be clearly entering a period of high(er) sustained #interestrates, the Q. must be what will be the consequences?
The FT offers some possible answers:
Consumers (effective) demand will be constrained by servicing #mortgages & household #debt;
#productivity may rise as under-performing firms are bankrupted (unable to service their loans);
states may find fiscal manoeuvrability further constrained due to servicing #publicdebt;
& the #greentranstion may be harder to fund.
The #EU is about to throw the #electriccar sector in the UK a (temporary) lifeline; its delaying the rule of origin threshold on imports of #electricvehicles for a year to allow firms the time to re-organise their #supplychains...
Whether the UK #manufacturers will be able to organise domestic #battery supply on that timescale is another matter altogether....
@419623b4
Yes, I was trying to capture the fevered nature of their desperation with the strategic purpose... having a constrained world-limit (500 characters) on @zirk.us is a great incentive to coin such phrases... which is why I like a word limit 😀
Paul Drechsler (International Chambers of Commerce) on the #Tories & their conference:
'The one thing self-evident in Manchester is there isn't a Conservative Party left in this county; there is a collection of parties riding on the back of their funding & banner , with totally different views on how the country should be run - from 'bankrupt it as quickly as possible' to 'bankrupt it as slowly as possible'.'
Yup, the #Tories have really lost the #business vote... and about time!
yet another case of the #Tories move into 'post-truth' #politics as it becomes clear that that their figure of 25% #FossilFuels still required in 2050 is actually not endorsed by the very organisation they claim to have got the figure from.
From the 'meat tax' to the engineered conspiracy story of draconian 15-minute cities, the #Tories have clearly given up on an idea they might win an #election based on the UK's real situation, replacing it with fevered misdirection
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/06/ministers-misrepresented-uk-climate-advisory-body-say-scientists
It may not seem like it at first, but this tragic story of travelling abroad for #medical treatment is all about the shadow of the #NHScrisis; both the rationing of treatment(s) and the costs of #private #healthcare for those who are desperate for treatment.
the shadow of the crisis is wrecking people's lives, while the #tories continue their programme of wrecking as long as they can
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/06/cheshire-man-whose-fiancee-died-in-turkey-warns-of-medical-tourism-risks
If you are interested in (concerned about) #feeeports, then the @3527005f has a gazette of articles you'll be wanting to delve into.
Across the country, Freeports are being promoted but there are extensive doubts about their economic benefits & the #corruption behind their organisation.
They key issue, is that none of the cases are isolated.... there's a clear pattern!
https://bylines.cymru/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Gazette-Freeports.pdf
Meanwhile at #NASA:
Thinking about how humans might appear to any #extraterrestrial they run into while on the new programme of missions planned by NASA... a new designer has been appointed
Yes, #prada...
Now good design is always a good thing, but to be frank... wearability & practical clothing are not really what Miuccia Prada is about... but the aliens will, at least, have their fashion preconceptions challenged.
Stuart Kirk (FT) suggests that Christopher Kise (one of #Trump's #lawyers has offered the most useful aphorism in the recent history of #investment
'There are many ways to value assets & all are accurate even if they give different results'!
In other words, in the end, an asset is only worth what you can get someone to pay for it... until then any valuation is potentially accurate.
So I hope that helps you this weekend!
This week I've been mainly been reading, no. 97.
There's a well known saying in #arthistory that every portrait is a self-portrait (also attributed to Oscar Wilde). In Ia Genberg's The Details (2023) the narrator offers four portraits (three of former lovers, one of a parent0 which in the end reveal as much about her as those she is writing about. Its a well-crafted novella that presents a slowly emerging picture of a woman with less self-knowledge than she likely believes..
@b2e37e2e
On one level this is a story of #monopoly & control, and the role on global #corporations in the #music business;
but on another, as a #vinyl obsessive, who never got rid of my record collection (and of course use it regularly in my alter-ego #ProfDJ), it is strangely gratifying to see the industry getting in a pickle about the distribution of #vinylrecords
makes me nostalgic for when (a long time ago) I was working in record (and it was records!) retail!
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2023/oct/06/indie-companies-worry-as-major-labels-intervene-in-vinyl-and-cd-distribution
Hmmm... first #manchester took back control of its #busses... and now #Liverpool seems to be following... its almost like the cities had an enhanced view of the value of #publictransport at the same time that #¢RishiSunak is trying to make some mileage out of being a friend of the #motorist...
As so often some #politicians seem confused by people being more than one thing at once... many urban drivers would be thankful for good reliable #busses, as then they cold leave their cars at home!
@efe11849
Yes, there's an interesting Q. about what happens when private landlords sell... my guess (but with no actual data) is the houses/flats split between returning to owner-occupation & some continuing to be rented.... its pretty unlikely that all would remain rented so the Q. is quite what the % of return to O/O would be
#StevieWonder had it right:
We are amazed but not amused
By all the things you say that you'll do
Though much concerned but not involved
With decisions that are made by you
But we are sick and tired of hearing your song
Tellin' how you are gonna change right from wrong
'Cause if you really want to hear our views
You haven't done nothin'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SEGHvLElxc
It comes to something when an American #woman (who has been an advisor to the Govt. on reducing the levels of rape in the UK) feels she'd be safer back in the states...
Reading her comments just reinforces my view that this country has a major problem with mens' attitudes to (and treatment of) women... we need to realise we have a problem before ewe can deal with it, and she suggests we're not really even at that first stage yet!
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/05/government-adviser-leaves-role-over-lack-of-will-to-change
While there is a general centre-left feeling to people's views on #economics of redistribution & the #politics of tax & spend... on #immigration there is a clear difference of opinion by age.
So if you wanted to understand how the declaratory politics of Johnson #Tories worked (given their dependence on older #voters, while trying to 'win' younger people to the party), here you have one simple element...
Where #RishiSunak has problems is reality has caught up with earlier #torylies! Oh dear..
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/186/547/375/856/747/original/bc51e0009c7b2b7f.png
@5c47d752
Well, there's an argument that in the face of the nut-jobs shouting & going doo-lalay on the other side, 'tedium' may be his super-power.... not a view I'd subscribe to, but not without its supporters!
After the cancellation of #HS2's remaining #Northern section, Andy Bagnall, from Rail Partners (the train operators) told the FT
“if we get reform right, the railway can still be an engine for green growth in Britain... If we don’t, a generation will be put off from using rail to travel & move goods, leading to another era of managed decline'!
Despite special pleading from #railway operators, without a central role for #publictransport its hard to see how to get #netzero!
#headinmyhands
Meanwhile in #Scotland:
On a low turnout (37.2%), Labour secured a 20% swing in tis favour to win the #Rutherglen #byelection beating the SNP by 58% to 27% of the vote... while the #Tories crashed to 3.9%.
And, now the reading of the runes can get under way....
Can #Labour 'win back' Scotland?
Is this indicative of how the #Tory vote might go in a general election?
Does it suggest concerns about #KeirStarmer's electoral appeal are miss-placed?
I'm looking forward to the weekend papers
Here's a #Housingcrisis Q. for you:
The number of properties for (private) rent is at a 14 year low.
Private #landlords are selling up being unable to make a profit at current #mortgage levels.
This suggests (to FT) that commercial 'build-to-rent' firms may now expand their operations to respond to demand.
So the Q. is: are #renters better off renting from individual landlords or from large rental firms?
There are many other vital issues in #housing, but this may become a big(get) issue?
as the #Tories contemplate #taxcuts ahead of the next #election, 'fiscal drag' (the failure to uplift tax thresholds in line with #inflation) mean by 2028 the Resolution Foundation reckons there will have been a £40bn rise in overall #taxation since the freeze on thresholds began in 2021 under the then Chancellor.... #RishiSunak.
So just to be clear.... the #Tories have effectively raised income tax on most #workers, but want to get rid of #InheritanceTax paid by fewer than 4% of estates...
@0b31d3d7
Yes, that makes sense in the medium to long term... but *does* depend on the media taking that into consideration which they haven't so much in the past
@4bd28ee7
yes, tactical voting certainly sort of lets FPTP off the hook, but in the immediacy of an election in six weeks time, it may be a good if not perfect democratic strategy?
@efe11849
I think exhaustion & time-stress is a key issue.... convenience counts for a lot when you're not feeling valued or enthused about your (working) life
@1fa3e23b
Yes, I think it will be interesting to see how turnout plays out... possibly, low in 'safe' seats, higher in marginals were tactical voting can shift result(s)?
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