You may say we have a new Govt. but if there is to be a change in the level of  humanity in how we deal with migrants, its doesn't seem to ave reached either the Home Office or Border Force....

#Migrants #HomeOffice

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/31/eu-citizen-who-applied-for-pre-settled-status-set-to-be-deported-from-scotland


nostr:npub13yy0axa7xml9uxez0cw5wgjkhhm3ty68qamlag9dygqw4gxu93dqfsm882

Yes, my nephew does exactly the same....


Hell is not finding that elusive book even though you're sure your bookshop (surely) must have a copy....

as always Tom Gauld raises a smile

#books nostr:npub1kt3hutklgrma64ykjwk4trxq9rtyfnxhkjz729g4pd9xl7hzhrjse75004
#bookshops

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/113/302/270/455/445/157/original/a161a5a23886d26f.png


Q. what to make of Denise Coates (head of Bet365)?

She's one of Britain's richest people, yet most of her wages go through Bet365's payroll making her one the UK's largest  tax-payers; she support (extensively) a range of charities & invests widely in the local economy....

But, of course, her firm revolutionised gambling & for many compounded the social problems associated with gambling addiction.

If you want to think about it further try this long read.

#gambling
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/oct/02/the-ultimate-gambler-how-denise-coates-became-britains-richest-woman


nostr:npub1shdead6zc225cxlyev5z2q9plj3u60u5qay38q8ajgwmet5mygjqhwyzwy

Well, as I understand it a strike is a refusal or withdrawn of work while under contract.... when the contract ends & no new one is in place, that is not a withdrawal of labour its the end of the contract..... indeed, the employers have been trying to get a negotiated extension to the contract while talks continue, but the unions refused... hence, no contract & so no legal agreement to work at all.


Interestingly the walk-out by dock-workers in the USA (across a range of ports on the East coast) is being presented as a 'strike, but, as far as I can see its workers refusing to work without a contract.

Negotiations for a new contract (which deals with concerns about low pay & how automation is expanded) continue, but as the existing contract ended on Monday night, surely workers refusing to continue working is not a strike, it is a reasonable refusal to work without a contract?

#USpol


Aha, we're back in the world of serial announcements...

Rachel Reeves has now added to her previously announced commitment to halve the number of consultants used by Govt. departments, a requirement for top civil servant or ministerial sign-off on contracts.... err, surely that would have already have been happening (or should have been)?

In any case, we can expect announcement the third when the Autumn Budget includes the posited £1bn as part of her budgetary projections.

#politics
h/t FT


More evidence that the crisis in the NHS engineered by the Tories is another act of economic self-harm.... having wrecked our external economic relations with Brexit, they undermined our internal (domestic) economic activity by producing a massive health-related expansion in the economically inactive.

This is what the Tories' disaster capitalists chums wanted & got!

[to be clear the NHS crisis should not only be measured by its significant economic impact]

#economics
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/17/uk-ill-health-economic-growth-ippr


Playing a gig this afternoon for friends' 50th wedding anniversary, spun this for them & had forgotten just how brilliant it is....

These boots are made for stamping on fascists.... or walkin' if you prefer!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbyAZQ45uww


I don't know about you but I'm sick to death of commentators on wages looking at the last two or three quarters & claiming that because wages are now often growing above inflation that all is much better for workers....

NO NO NO - look at the longer term to see how real wages remain in many cases BELOW those enjoyed in 2007/8.

Just because pay rises are above inflation now does not undo over a decade of falling real wages....

[grinding of teeth]

#workers #inflation #economics


it now seems clear that GB Energy, to be set up in the next few months by the Labour Govt. will focus on expanding the provision of off-shore wind power generation, by working closely with the Crown Estates (already doing well from the sector) and seeking to de-risk investment in the sector.

Of course, off-shore wind in many ways is more expensive than its onshore version, but does side-step the planning friction(s) often encountered... but interconnection issues remain!

#energy #wind
h/t FT


We know universities are in crisis, driven by the increasingly problems in their current mode of funding. However, its not always clear how this is playing out across the sector.

So here's a UCU, university by university, list of actions managers have been taking to balance the books & its not a pretty sight.

Whether we will see failure, merge & restructuring is not yet completely clear, but its become a lot more likely in the last five years.

#universities #austerity

https://qmucu.org/qmul-transformation/uk-he-shrinking/


My two (far from original) initial take-aways from last night:

While Starmer & Labour now have a chance to show that there is an alternative to Tory chaos, their honeymoon might be pretty short & if fears of them being 'continuity  Tory' are fulfilled then they may have no game-changing answers in any case....

and, given the election has been a story of a split on the Right, if Starmer fails to (quickly) convince, then a resurgent & merging Right looks like a real danger in 2029....

#politics


Other good news:

Jacob Rees Mogg has lost his seat... hurrah

Not so good news:

Jeremy Hunt has retained his... so we can expect more self-righteous commentary on the NHS crisis from one of the people who caused it in the first place....

#Election2024


You'll recall either from the original Frost interview (or from its dramatisation in Frost/Nixon) that Richard Nixon, declared: 'Well, when the president does it, that means that it is not illegal'.... effectively placing the President above the law.

Well, finally the US Supreme Court seems to have caught up with President Nixon.

The declaration that for official acts the President is immune from prosecution, not only looks like a major dilution of the rule of law, its just dangerous!

#law


A not completely implausible scenario to fear:

Nigel Farage wins Clacton & becomes MP.

In post election Tory chaos, Reform suggest merger with Right-Tory rump.

Tory party splits with Reform uniting with ultra Right Tories & manage to retain party name.

Tory/Reform form 'official' opposition.

Leadership election which Farage wins.

Election 2025 between exhausted Labour party unable to fix the wreckage bequeathed to them by Tories vs. Farage 'the people's savour'!

unthinkable? God I hope so


nostr:npub1r737ywltvd6zas4zzdw34ykejg7epl9pt340pu6mj7jt7uq0tt9svx9ysd

Yes, I think it will be interesting to see how turnout plays out... possibly, low in 'safe' seats, higher in marginals were tactical voting can shift result(s)?


nostr:npub1nsajfd6tyx27culxk4svk0a44tja6aexragmd6xzpnm4mv2dkatsepsm8n

Yes the map in the article also highlighted some inland examples.... its all about the 'picturesque'


If you're in Lancaster (UK) tonight & fancy a bit more Motown (either because you enjoyed ProfDJ's Motown night last week, or missed it), its happening again, this time at Runner Duck Wine Room (King St.) - as before Motown all night - Marvin, Diana, Stevie, The Four Tops, The Temptations and more....

see you there from 8.30.

#Lancaster #ProfDJ #motown #soul #vinyl #music


nostr:npub14n9l05agu2yv709lw7d309u6h0y9puehm8zwahltrrdteqhm8amqcn9ykn

yes, I rather suspected that was the case....


nostr:npub1v5x3hxyj04vflzpxttc3f4exsjkl65u0daufjys86md8zdexdjnqskfmhy

Ha ha, yes... its ironic isn't it.... at least in the FT the houses are so expensive as to be outside the normal residential market(s)


nostr:npub10gc3ethplzkez0379fcfy5045zy2dpt779uwey2pa93k4urpuyqs7rrygg

well in the UK the fraud associated with postal votes (which has been periodically investigated) is vanishingly small


nostr:npub10h7qsnppacd0vakj0tr3uptmwlgtrnkzjg2pus79tfn2l00ctqzqcdl9gn

Fair comment - but once you're registered it carries forward... so an investment in time, really


nostr:npub1pvca84cyp59dux0q85rskgxsd4s73h8cy3ruhu55jsqwzr0s8wyqzfklsu

Yes, that makes sense in the medium to long term... but *does* depend on the media taking that into consideration which they haven't so much in the past


nostr:npub10h7qsnppacd0vakj0tr3uptmwlgtrnkzjg2pus79tfn2l00ctqzqcdl9gn

we have postal voting (which is effectively early voting) - indeed I have a postal vote...


nostr:npub1f0fgaecaf87hwt3q3m7hrpumkdrzelskrr8xy2svmrjm8wtz4jhsayj7ea

yes, tactical voting certainly sort of lets FPTP off the hook, but in the immediacy of an election in six weeks time, it may be a good if not perfect democratic strategy?


nostr:npub177hcl02zc07jh699lpke8endp4gd6rdzpytdwmwa5ypl5nzerqxqkua2d8

Yup, that sounds about right for partial & lazy BBC reporting....


nostr:npub1vylfz5vukzcrh3xs5xqvmepur46cumaak4w0xm9k8dplrv0zfw7q8up6v0

excellent simile!


Of course, one of the the things we all need to be considering is how to vote tactically... so here for your consideration is one guide to how to vote tactically in your constituency.

Just type in you postcode for advice (based on polling) on how you might vote tactically to get the Tories out (or if you have other priorities, how to maximise the impact of your vote under the current FPTP system)

#election #tacticalvoting

https://tactical.vote


nostr:npub18fs85tfjkxlxh9g2m2qr9fj64x74798dd3um0dkjsss0ajhhte2q7s2lq0

Ha ha, great story, thanks


nostr:npub1als3sjvknvhnrstajlt62mjchcxtp99jv4v3jm03gtzdrhz5dtksuxw5yl

I think exhaustion & time-stress is a key issue.... convenience counts for a lot when you're not feeling valued or enthused about your (working) life


nostr:npub1vzq495gux2rtp8dy34hge37f348009a9zgaam7swszycra2cf02q3agn6z

OMG, what sort of sedition is this.... they'll be after you for bringing the UK's democracy into disrepute.


nostr:npub123a8u3npscufynu5htez3lhnawdt90876eww69ls92n32cxfjssqsdg9eu

thanks - and boosted


So the Environmental Agency, is embarrassed to reveal the true state of our environment...

They find it difficult to answer prescient questions from NGOs with significant expertise (the implications being, better informed that the EA staff) & (it would seem) would like the NGO's Q.s to be more simply put to help EA staff offer better answers?

If you wanted a picture of a failing regulatory agency this would be it....

#environment #regulation


From Liberty UK:

Last summer Suella Braverman changed the definition of “serious disruption” to mean “more than minor” – giving police huge powers to shut down protests.

Liberty said this move was undemocratic, unconstitutional and unacceptable.

The term ‘serious disruption’ comes from another Public Order Act from 1986. The Home Secretary has the power to *clarify* what is meant by ‘serious’ – not completely change its meaning.

The Court agreed.

The police should stop using these powers.


Hmmmm.... so in 2028 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world's biggest computing chip manufacturer will start producing it next generation chips in Arizona....

This is being presented as a triumph of Biden's economic policies (a pull factor), but one cannot help but wonder whether there is also a significant issue of China's increasing belligerence towards Taiwan (a push factor) in the relocation?

#Taiwan #China #semiconductors

h/t FT


RIP Daniel Kahneman, who in one of the few nobel prizes awarded for non-orthodox economics, demonstrated that the standard assumption of rational market behaviour so misunderstood people's real motivations and actions as to render much economics too distant from real economic relations to be truly useful.

As he once said, his work relieved economics of 'an unrealistic conception of reality'...

#economics #markets


nostr:npub1n9kjuz90teegh74w76fs5qkzcw5n750hww9f90sw0znfashms86sx6k2gu

Good point - around 3/4 of homes are private run - so three ties as many.... so 22x times closures would still be way beyond proportionate


Spot a pattern:

COP28 President Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber used to work for the host state's oil company, but said ahead of the meeting they were turning in a green direction... then delivered a lame & indecisive COP:

COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev used to work for the host state's oil company, but said ahead of the meeting they were turning in a green direction...

Now I wonder how COP29 will turn out?

#COP29 #fossilfuels #ClimateCrisis

h/t FT


Commentators on US politics who are swinging round to blame POTUS Biden for a prospective Trump victory, are letting the US media & the country's toxic politics off the hook.

From over this side of the Atlantic it looks like Trump is not gaining ground because Biden is doing a bad job (whatever one thinks of his foreign policy), but because the media & Republicans have captured & reproduced a negative narrative about Biden's first term....

#politics #Biden #America


Another day, another Brexiter waking up & smelling the coffee....

Now, Jeffrey Sprecher (of finance house Intercontinental Exchange) has shifted his position:

2017: Hurrah the UK should 'have a bit of swagger' & celebrate being a low-tax, lightly regulated independent country...

2024: Uk not so attractive to international investors as there is no gateway to Europe & the UK is now a 'foreign country'.

Hmmm... it not like these issues are a surprise is in now Jeff?

#Brexit #finance

h/t FT


nostr:npub1js87ge2wdgd254y9mkkygzewpest6wnavlq5y24mfj20ll357k2s9tjk8q

Similar here.... becoming primary carer for my wife was the main reason I took 9albeit on a good deal) early retirement


nostr:npub1kpphzfas6a0zvx5vg4aygk8t5c92z32024nlv7hz6qv97uuuj0hszr9nk0

Indeed, the data on 'unemployment' is partly a figment on ho one defines unemployment (of course)


Over 20% of people between 16-64 are not actively looking for work; this includes students & the (early) retired; there has also been considerable coverage of the long-term sick in recent months.

The group who are not working due to care responsibilities are also important.

I posted recently on grandparents & childcare, and its now clear that the crisis in #socialcare is keeping some #workers at home!

This is why better social & #publicservices make economic sense!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68534537


One of the ways (metaphorically) of thinking about the likely impact of privatising healthcare in the UK is to look at how the market for veterinary services has worked.

Confirming the view of most pet owners I know (including myself) the Competition & Markets Authority has launched an investigation into overcharging for pet healthcare, including medicines.

As the sector is essentially a quasi oligopoly, it will be interning to see if the CMA demands a break up?

#pets #healthcare #oligopoly


As wage growth continues to slow in the UK, it will be interesting to see how the BoE will explain any residual inflation, given they are keen to avoid looking too closely at the 'maintenance' of profits....

Likely it will be the return of 'external factors' if they cannot keep blaming workers for seeking to repair their loving standards.

#inflation #workers #corporations


nostr:npub1a0x29trnmm49g808fqnx7zejduuyatqclrxvp4rjpslxdjj5wlesph4j48

Yes, the term 'hard working' as a social divider, is really quite pernicious...


nostr:npub17dvvvuxs0thapytcc7e9p4s42664yz4nvgvxrclm573rzqsz5ecqx8n4j7

There's a lot of people hoping you're right....


For this of you who have despaired at the plight of #BBC news coverage, let me recommend BBC Verify, which seems like a quiet bastion of proper news analysis which may revive your hope that there may be something to salvage from the wreckage of the BBC news coverage; I sometimes wonder how this has escaped the notice of the #Tories.

[You'll note from the web address that this used to be called 'reality check'; the shift in term/title may reveal some internal #politics?]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/reality_check


#RishiSunak is in trouble with Sir Robert Chote (chair of the UK Statistics Authority) for claiming last month the 'debt was falling' when what he actually referring to was an OBR forecast that debt *would* likely fall in the future.

As Chote said 'the average person in the street [would...] likely have assumed that he was claiming that debt was already falling or that the government’s policy decisions had lowered it at fiscal events — neither of which is the case'!

Sunak can't help himself!


The #Tories malign attention to #education continues to wreck the system... so having slagged off #teachers, made their workload heavier, disrupted their work-life balance & generally making the sector difficult to work in, not only has recruitment into teaching dropped, and retention levels fallen, now in one year rates of early #retirement have gone up by 40%.

This is not the way to educate our coutnry, but perhaps that's the #Tories' aim?

for them educated #voters are dangerous!


There's been a lot of concern voiced about Sultan Al Jaber who will chair #COP28 while also heading up #UAE's state #Oil company...

Interestingly Fiona Harvey (Guardian) spent some time with him interviewing him (and following him around) on & off the record;

the result: an interesting profile of someone who will play a pivotal role for a period in our response to the #ClimateCrisis.

Try & decide whether he's acting in good faith or a wrecker?
Its still not clear!

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/07/meet-the-oil-man-tasked-with-saving-the-planet-cop28


nostr:npub1v4uu2tmpqnmzs3q7q5kxleyca2savleptlurhhpk8z0dkttwn2vqkdgaq6 nostr:npub1x5nsqhalgqhygpa2gwcvc67t4pmhe5vh8hkh3tlc2sya9rmwggjqzlwt9j

Good Q.; one might hope that a new Givt. might look at the taxation issues... but, what's more interesting is that previous versions which have been established have in the end fallen out of use as they have actually little to offer the potential businesses wanting to use them


nostr:npub1vh9nmlglyd84nudfdurd9fc9pewp4p925slevzvs0xcue3k005cskv8qsf

Time to reclaim it perhaps... certainly in international politics it was linked to a pretty positive notion of a 'society of states' rather than an anarchic system where states only relied on themselves for security (the traditional 'realist' vision).


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

are you channelling Lenin there... or (perhaps) Edmund Wilson?


nostr:npub1vh9nmlglyd84nudfdurd9fc9pewp4p925slevzvs0xcue3k005cskv8qsf

A new medievalism?
This was a new that was quite common in international politics (for completely different reasons) some decades ago.... I suggest it not to be trite, but to try to capture what the physicality of a new localism might look like?


We all know that #arts funding is in crisis, but often the voices of those most effected (the #artists themselves) are less heard among the clamour from arts professionals worried about the future of their venues/organisations.... so you might want to look at the extensive views set out by the Artists' Citizens' Jury (form last year but recently published).

There's lots to read - I cannot summarise it here - but it will be worth a look if this is your field.

https://goldsmithscca.art/publication/elizabeth-price-and-nina-wakeford/


nostr:npub1vh9nmlglyd84nudfdurd9fc9pewp4p925slevzvs0xcue3k005cskv8qsf

Yes, this is an interesting idea... when I was teaching political economy the local, small-tech ideas of Schumacher were always intriguing to students looking for a full-scale redirection of our political economy... and I always think what's interesting about that approach is could be na organic ground-up response... achieved by communities working together; certainly on small scale hydro there are some interesting examples....


nostr:npub1gxtz8dz7ujqcy9hrnyhrykk6xujgpukgccvhpea7evhev7xzpsdqnej9na

Yes, I was trying to capture the fevered nature of their desperation with the strategic purpose... having a constrained world-limit (500 characters) on @zirk.us is a great incentive to coin such phrases... which is why I like a word limit 😀


As we now look to be clearly entering a period of high(er) sustained #interestrates, the Q. must be what will be the consequences?

The FT offers some possible answers:

Consumers (effective) demand will be constrained by servicing #mortgages & household #debt;

#productivity may rise as under-performing firms are bankrupted (unable to service their loans);

states may find fiscal manoeuvrability further constrained due to servicing #publicdebt;

& the #greentranstion may be harder to fund.


The #EU is about to throw the #electriccar sector in the UK a (temporary) lifeline; its delaying the rule of origin threshold on imports of #electricvehicles for a year to allow firms the time to re-organise their #supplychains...

Whether the UK #manufacturers will be able to organise domestic #battery supply on that timescale is another matter altogether....


Paul Drechsler (International Chambers of Commerce) on the #Tories & their conference:

'The one thing self-evident in Manchester is there isn't a Conservative Party left in this county; there is a collection of parties riding on the back of their funding & banner , with totally different views on how the country should be run - from 'bankrupt it as quickly as possible' to 'bankrupt it as slowly as possible'.'

Yup, the #Tories have really lost the #business vote... and about time!


yet another case of the #Tories move into 'post-truth' #politics as it becomes clear that that their figure of 25% #FossilFuels still required in 2050 is actually not endorsed by the very organisation they claim to have got the figure from.

From the 'meat tax' to the engineered conspiracy story of draconian 15-minute cities, the #Tories have clearly given up on an idea they might win an #election based on the UK's real situation, replacing it with fevered misdirection

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/06/ministers-misrepresented-uk-climate-advisory-body-say-scientists


It may not seem like it at first, but this tragic story of travelling abroad for #medical treatment is all about the shadow of the #NHScrisis; both the rationing of treatment(s) and the costs of #private #healthcare for those who are desperate for treatment.

the shadow of the crisis is wrecking people's lives, while the #tories continue their programme of wrecking as long as they can

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/06/cheshire-man-whose-fiancee-died-in-turkey-warns-of-medical-tourism-risks


Sarah Lester (Guardian) neatly sums up the problem of centralised decision-making in the UK & the problem(s) it causes for the #north:

'We need the government to see the north, not looking at us from London, but looking at the capital from “up here”, where the view is very different'!

Amen to that!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/06/rishi-sunak-cancelled-hs2-northern-voters-remember-this-betrayal


If you are interested in (concerned about) #feeeports, then the nostr:npub1x5nsqhalgqhygpa2gwcvc67t4pmhe5vh8hkh3tlc2sya9rmwggjqzlwt9j has a gazette of articles you'll be wanting to delve into.

Across the country, Freeports are being promoted but there are extensive doubts about their economic benefits & the #corruption behind their organisation.

They key issue, is that none of the cases are isolated.... there's a clear pattern!

https://bylines.cymru/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Gazette-Freeports.pdf


Meanwhile at #NASA:

Thinking about how humans might appear to any #extraterrestrial they run into while on the new programme of missions planned by NASA... a new designer has been appointed

Yes, #prada...

Now good design is always a good thing, but to be frank... wearability & practical clothing are not really what Miuccia Prada is about... but the aliens will, at least, have their fashion preconceptions challenged.


Stuart Kirk (FT) suggests that Christopher Kise (one of #Trump's #lawyers has offered the most useful aphorism in the recent history of #investment

'There are many ways to value assets & all are accurate even if they give different results'!

In other words, in the end, an asset is only worth what you can get someone to pay for it... until then any valuation is potentially accurate.

So I hope that helps you this weekend!


This week I've been mainly been reading, no. 97.

There's a well known saying in #arthistory that every portrait is a self-portrait (also attributed to Oscar Wilde). In Ia Genberg's The Details (2023) the narrator offers four portraits (three of former lovers, one of a parent0 which in the end reveal as much about her as those she is writing about. Its a  well-crafted novella that presents a slowly emerging picture of a woman with less self-knowledge than she likely believes..

nostr:npub1kt3hutklgrma64ykjwk4trxq9rtyfnxhkjz729g4pd9xl7hzhrjse75004


There is no way I'm letting my #dog see this cartoon!

He'a already got ideas above his station....

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/189/157/948/790/778/original/f32004793111d203.png


On one level this is a story of #monopoly & control, and the role on global #corporations in the #music business;

but on another, as a #vinyl obsessive, who never got rid of my record collection (and of course use it regularly in my alter-ego #ProfDJ), it is strangely gratifying to see the industry getting in a pickle about the distribution of #vinylrecords

makes me nostalgic for when (a long time ago) I was working in record (and it was records!) retail!

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2023/oct/06/indie-companies-worry-as-major-labels-intervene-in-vinyl-and-cd-distribution


Hmmm... first #manchester took back control of its #busses... and now #Liverpool seems to be following... its almost like the cities had an enhanced view of the value of #publictransport at the same time that #¢RishiSunak is trying to make some mileage out of being a friend of the #motorist...

As so often some #politicians seem confused by people being more than one thing at once... many urban drivers would be thankful for good reliable #busses, as then they cold leave their cars at home!


nostr:npub1vh9nmlglyd84nudfdurd9fc9pewp4p925slevzvs0xcue3k005cskv8qsf

great idea... chance of happening, vanishingly small I fear


nostr:npub10p52mnelw2phuxurtzx2f5xsualncu4fj5ycfy3mkvjkjfjzasrs7t24v2

Thought you might like this....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buh8YnTwppM


nostr:npub1lejz23djaalefkesg4fy8mkhf3k4929gkcpc26lmp08hh7qss9qqyxvl5l nostr:npub1kj7yq4tzueyf5dfxtqpkx45a2rlegsrdpfg3n6g830e42kshf7ssx64qf6

Yes, so would I.... I imagine John Curtice and/or the UK social attitudes survey people might have something to offer?


nostr:npub1als3sjvknvhnrstajlt62mjchcxtp99jv4v3jm03gtzdrhz5dtksuxw5yl

Yes, there's an interesting Q. about what happens when private landlords sell... my guess (but with no actual data) is the houses/flats split between returning to owner-occupation & some continuing to be rented.... its pretty unlikely that all would remain rented so the Q. is quite what the % of return to O/O would be


nostr:npub19spuspr05s2852cnjvzd5xy70j8adte9ht94jz7gvvn9lwd3y7jsj0rerx

Staying away in by-elections is one of the reasons that often the 'lessons' from any particular by-election are wrongly drawn....


#StevieWonder had it right:

We are amazed but not amused
By all the things you say that you'll do
Though much concerned but not involved
With decisions that are made by you

But we are sick and tired of hearing your song
Tellin' how you are gonna change right from wrong
'Cause if you really want to hear our views
You haven't done nothin'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SEGHvLElxc


It comes to something when an American #woman (who has been an advisor to the Govt. on reducing the levels of rape in the UK) feels she'd be safer back in the states...

Reading her comments just reinforces my view that this country has a major problem with mens' attitudes to (and treatment of) women... we need to realise we have a problem before ewe can deal with it, and she suggests we're not really even at that first stage yet!

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/05/government-adviser-leaves-role-over-lack-of-will-to-change


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

Well, there's an argument that in the face of the nut-jobs shouting & going doo-lalay on the other side, 'tedium' may be his super-power.... not a view I'd subscribe to, but not without its supporters!


While there is a general centre-left feeling to people's views on #economics of redistribution & the #politics of tax & spend... on #immigration there is a clear difference of opinion by age.

So if you wanted to understand how the declaratory politics of Johnson #Tories worked (given their dependence on older #voters, while trying to 'win' younger people to the party), here you have one simple element...

Where #RishiSunak has problems is reality has caught up with earlier #torylies! Oh dear..

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/186/547/375/856/747/original/bc51e0009c7b2b7f.png


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

Yes, there's going to be a lot of 'vindication of Keir' going on....


After the cancellation of #HS2's remaining #Northern section, Andy Bagnall, from Rail Partners (the train operators) told the FT

“if we get reform right, the railway can still be an engine for green growth in Britain... If we don’t, a generation will be put off from using rail to travel & move goods, leading to another era of managed decline'!

Despite special pleading from #railway operators, without a central role for #publictransport its hard to see how to get #netzero!

#headinmyhands


Meanwhile in #Scotland:

On a low turnout (37.2%), Labour secured a 20% swing in tis favour to win the #Rutherglen #byelection beating the SNP by 58% to 27% of the vote... while the #Tories crashed to 3.9%.

And, now the reading of the runes can get under way....

Can #Labour 'win back' Scotland?

Is this indicative of how the #Tory vote might go in a general election?

Does it suggest concerns about #KeirStarmer's electoral appeal are miss-placed?

I'm looking forward to the weekend papers


Here's a #Housingcrisis Q. for you:

The number of properties for (private) rent is at a 14 year low.

Private #landlords are selling up being unable to make a profit at current #mortgage levels.

This suggests (to FT) that commercial 'build-to-rent' firms may now expand their operations to respond to demand.

So the Q. is: are #renters better off renting from individual landlords or from large rental firms?

There are many other vital issues in #housing, but this may become a big(get) issue?


as the #Tories contemplate #taxcuts ahead of the next #election, 'fiscal drag' (the failure to uplift tax thresholds in line with #inflation) mean by 2028 the Resolution Foundation reckons there will have been a £40bn rise in overall #taxation since the freeze on thresholds began in 2021 under the then Chancellor.... #RishiSunak.

So just to be clear.... the #Tories have effectively raised income tax on most #workers, but want to get rid of #InheritanceTax paid by fewer than 4% of estates...


nostr:npub1dugpgfap4alul20lyn2vglwud8tss4ytd008l7v0pnm8w97lvnlqfzmkax

Interesting point.... my guess is they'll have found a loophole (or backdoor left for exactly this eventuality!)


So, just to make sure the #North has no chance of reversing the cancellation of the North of #Birmingham section, #RishiSunak has authorised the immediate sale of properties/sites compulsory purchased along the route; while this might not (quite) make reviving the plan(s) impossible, it makes it a lot more difficult.

For those in the #North who voted #tory, this surely must be the final piece of evidence needed to conclude you were misled & exploited for Southern gains?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/05/sunaks-spiteful-sale-of-land-intended-for-hs2-dashes-hopes-of-revival


nostr:npub17qmud32pgkk4v335kc0mct377pwtjw2rw7p9gphjy280xp2xlr0q24uz8c nostr:npub1k8sc33trg3ulkdk0cc975rmkrkx4exf5gy6nehjyxx34rpr0gzvswzzuc9

If you've not read/seen it, I think you'd enjoy Joel Bakan's The Corporation (book or film) where he presents a psychoanalysis of the corporate person


As we head towards the #election, it seems the #LabourParty has spent nearly £1.5m on legal fees, as it (now) tries to delay the case it has bought against five ex-staff members for leaking the party's #antisemitism report (the defendants are also racking up legal fees).

You'll recall two investigations (one internal, one by the Information Commissioner) couldn't establish who leaked the report.

Now it looks like Labour is not sure a legal spat is in its electoral interest!

May be too late?


nostr:npub1k8sc33trg3ulkdk0cc975rmkrkx4exf5gy6nehjyxx34rpr0gzvswzzuc9

Its a good question... but the implication would be anyone still working for the company as they would now be part of the 'new' owners.... essentially, the ne owners could throw ex-employees of the old firm under the bus, which might raise an interesting set of incentives around mergers/sales


Something of interest for #corporation watchers:

the Biden administration has announced it will give a legal pass to firms that reveal criminal activities at companies they buy.... in the interests of disclosing illegal corporate activity.

However as #ElizabethWarren rightly argues this will more likely encourage malfeasance, with the promise of being able to wipe the slate clean on a merger.

Indeed, its difficult to see how confession & forgiveness will reduce corporate criminality at all..


nostr:npub1urf9cuvaeyxpyez4844ldl7aqfxygz8j8kvzyv0l0j47zuvhhlkqqyhseg

seemingly, only a few....


As much for interest as anything else, although I'm sure one could draw some conclusions about the implications of only just over 30% of the global populations not being #internet users in 2022...

for me the really striking thing is the global penetration of connectivity...

It brings good aswell as bad things to everyone, but nonetheless the extent of its reach is something to behold....

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/183/391/531/671/895/original/868ed6fe3c511160.png


Liberty has gained clearance to sue #SuellaBraverman in regard of her pushing through of police further powers to constrain/halt public demonstrations.

Now (even) more than ever we need Liberty to work to up hold the #ruleoflaw. If you're not already supporting them I urge you to make a regular donation... they are doing tough work on our behalf & we need them to keep at it.

https://www.libertyhumanrights.org.uk/issue/court-grants-permission-for-liberty-legal-action-against-home-secretary/


This week I've been mainly reading, no. 96.

If you're interested in the politics of public subsidy of the #arts, then Lambert Zuidervaart's, Art in Public (2011), will be a good investment. While at times pretty dense, its a forensic discussion of the justification for subsidy, why it encounters political problems & the wider role of the arts in society. Its full of interesting insights & will offer #artists & arts administrators some helpful prompts for thinking about their work
nostr:npub1kt3hutklgrma64ykjwk4trxq9rtyfnxhkjz729g4pd9xl7hzhrjse75004


nostr:npub1dmvjd8w7ds8qu4eyeqhpcc6zp6pke5wn0j96q5wge3d0nynut4wsne0rzj nostr:npub15zu89j2k6sja8qgcs5qdu2pfra5kemhlgeern2cpcw2svkuvkudqu3s7lx

Its an interesting point, about how much we need/shoild know about an artist... it all comes down to the dominant narrative of the psychological aspect of creativity... but you could extend your point to so many artists *& others; to some extent as you suggest the work should stand on its own, but its a difficult thing to pull off when people are interested in the work & its process/context of creation.


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd nostr:npub15zu89j2k6sja8qgcs5qdu2pfra5kemhlgeern2cpcw2svkuvkudqu3s7lx

Wow, I wish I had had that chance


nostr:npub1r495mhsje06y7fnuzyx94lag257tn64v7xpn9cf7jp5mdwjaee2sjxm5c8

aha, thanks for that... of course, for the #Tories non-voters, at a time when they are unpopular is itself a potential advantage if Labour 'trip up' in trying to reverse the consequences of a decade & half of wrecking


nostr:npub18x54kmmehynd0jvw5d0dvlpghnux0wxh5s0s3a35n0t3nge7z9yqhufsql

Yes, fair comment....


nostr:npub1als3sjvknvhnrstajlt62mjchcxtp99jv4v3jm03gtzdrhz5dtksuxw5yl

My (late) mother who worked for eh Family Planning Association (both domestic to the Uk & later its international arm) was of that opinion in the 1970s - you're right its difficult & when #China tried it they caused all sorts of social issues & stored up a range of problems that they are now confronting... but yes a conversation about just that is required


nostr:npub16jcp4vfspt9kgypvnycd26jxwpy3e6cehu84ghvnljczhc885s4qqz5rn4

and pay a few consultants....


nostr:npub10p52mnelw2phuxurtzx2f5xsualncu4fj5ycfy3mkvjkjfjzasrs7t24v2

I know what you mean... even the #climatecrisis it seems an odd emphasis... but I long ago stopped being baffled by #Tory choices - all they are concerned is what the first page of the Mail or Express will be


nostr:npub19vmc4xtd6pkekkcf0pmteapdum3qnk9eu07e0th86qq7dqxzg5uqalwchq

Yes, for the #university sector the issue is totemic rather than critical


nostr:npub10p52mnelw2phuxurtzx2f5xsualncu4fj5ycfy3mkvjkjfjzasrs7t24v2

I'll come back to you after five years of massive construction-related disruption....


The #ClimateCrisis is here, we're doing too little about it & the extreme heat being experienced around the world may have become normal in a decade....

We can only do two thins & we need to do them both:

we need to accelerate moves to #netzero!

we need to develop strategies for helping those most effected (either to adapt their homes/locations) or move to areas/locations where they can thrive.

Everything else is just sound & light!

#GreenTransition now!

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/181/057/585/954/143/original/6fd5c8a0d8fa3292.png


Hmmm... as previously noted, #JeremyHunt successfully lobbied to get #HS2 to start at #Euston, not in the suburbs (wherever it might go Northwards), but now the property development aspect of Euston station has been enlarged & is expected to cause a decade of disruption in the area.

Wait a minute, I hear you day, isn't Euston in #KeirStarmer's constituency?

Would it be too cynical to see this as a way of undermining the Labour Leader's grip on his seat in the future?


Amy Hwang on the awful truth of too many #jobs....

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/180/982/995/200/886/original/c66af857f819af5b.png


nostr:npub16f4nhwrfltv2rj7uv780mgvksprmftdmyqj7mre3xs4vy4yq2yfq2um687

Yes, but he seems to want to play the pants-politics of pretending they might not get trounced


Oh dear, many of my erstwhile colleagues in #universities have been taking the #fossilfuel firms money (even as the declare they'll disinvest from the sector)...

Its not the first time universities have held their nose & taken the money... but then again if you force institutions into a difficult financial situation, they will become less fussy on where the cash they need comes from.

(Its also worth noting for the sector this really is rather small change)

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/04/uk-universities-take-41m-in-fossil-fuel-funding-since-2022


#RishiSunak's plan to reform A-levels into a new English Advanced British Standard would require over 5,000 extra #teachers to deliver.... but even the attrition in the profession driven by the endless miss-handling of #education by the #Tories, there are already too few teachers (even with the dilution of need engineered by having Teaching Assistants).

Unless Sunak's 'plan' is for teachers to work (even) longer hours, this looks like more declaratory #politics with no chance of ever happening!


Hmmm... the chief of the Financial Conduct Authority is warning that a sustained period if high #interestrates may lead to a crisis of value for 'private assets';

well we're already seeing this in the #hoisingmarket (for others its a welcome decline in prices), but once this starts to play out in other (more elite-dominated) markets, the BoE's MPC might find they are being pulled aside & quiet words had about their resistance to lowering rates;

the 1% don't want to see *their* assets deflate!


The FT's view on #RishiSunak's conference speech:

'The impression is of a party veering towards rightwing populism & “anti-woke” culture wars, rather than providing credible answers to the fundamental issues facing the UK today....

After 13 years in power, the Conservatives seem desperate to find ways of clinging on for another five-year term. The new, radically pragmatic Sunak has yet to make a convincing case for what they would do with it'!

Not too convinced then?


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

But I feel the pull....


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

Hmmm... I know what you men, but I think he knows if he says. 'we're planning with an 18month time horizon' the press coverage will be mental & he would be very much damaged goods within the party.... & like many, once they have their feet on the carper of No.10 they want to see them there as long as possible!


nostr:npub1rmxvp79xvjpake8ur3n5p4h4dewe3wqh00807melekj05602enjql0ne96 nostr:npub1m3kp3lr6yzsc7kytp4eqp0qmjk4pwwnsfk4wupr4dek807y73dcq676wxd warns, after the #Tory conference that:

'As things stand that lurch to the right is unlikely to significantly alter the outcome of the next election. but it does set us up for a far uglier & more dangerous form of politics than the UK has ever been used to before'!

Yup, that's what is starting to look like - we are heading into dark(er) times...

https://bylinetimes.com/2023/10/04/the-conservative-party-conference-embraces-trumpism-without-trump/


nostr:npub10p52mnelw2phuxurtzx2f5xsualncu4fj5ycfy3mkvjkjfjzasrs7t24v2 nostr:npub1ql02t32xtlhxvvqxrzkqcpy92ajknk85gn0tgdc4jlsfle7u695sq8urvt

There's another comment in my timeline (just boosted) that regards SSE's claim as plausible... different parts of the UK having different wind(s) perhaps?


Hard as it may be to believe, since April SSE's #windfarms have been under-performning by around a fifth in the #energy fed into the national grid.

The claim is that 'adverse weather conditions' reduced their ability to generate #windpower... by which I assume they mean not windy enough?

Of course, we cannot know how realistic or otherwise their projections were (they may have been hyped for #investment purposes?), but as a #cyclist in the NW, let me tell you its been windy enough here!


nostr:npub1vh9nmlglyd84nudfdurd9fc9pewp4p925slevzvs0xcue3k005cskv8qsf

Yes, I think you have that right...


nostr:npub1fszdg6djev5aw9hkevn0t0ed62atrjtl6tf5ksjgt5awyr8zf3gsx8s5m6

Yes, I'd agree... this is definitely the socio-economic background to the emerging trend


Another day of the #Tory conference gets under way & who know what lies, extremism & insults will flow from the podium(s) today... but we know what it all adds up to.

#ToriesUnfitToGovern

What is extraordinary is that the #Tories are still polling in positive figures at all... but perhaps that tells us what we need to know about the political problems in the UK (and the continuing influence of our toxic-rightist #media).


Pragya Agarwal's message for men:

#women 'are getting angrier all around the world. I would disagree – women have always been angry. They are just giving themselves permission to express this anger openly now.

And there is so much to be angry about. [but] it is doubtful whether we can change the social scripts that angry women are “disgusting” and “pathetic” or hysterical unless we change the message that exists all around us like smog: that women’s anger is unnatural'

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/oct/04/are-women-getting-angrier-maybe-just-giving-themselves-permission-to-show-it


Q. are we about to see a repeat of the swift expansion of market share by #Japanese motor manufacturers from the 1970s, repeated in the realm of #electricvehicles by #Chinese manufactuers in the next decade?

Nearly half of all #electriccars exported from China are sold in #Europe, but then again, nearly half of those were #Tesla cars.

As with Japan before the key may be over-capacity in China... which is driving exports (and pricing).

Soon enough the evidence will be on the roads


The problem #bedblocking where #patients are well enough to be discharged but there is insufficient #socialcare capacity to discharge them to, remains a key aspect of the #NHScrisis;

although this year things have improved (still) over 50% are not being discharged by the end of the day making it difficult t admit from A&E or from referrals.

To be clear, this is not the patients' fault (as the term 'bed blocking' can sometime imply), its a major structural problem that remains unresolved!

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/175/116/242/308/397/original/21a93b878734e9d1.png


Two ends to the middle:

It now seems that while #RishiSunak has been arguing that HS2 shouldn't go so far #North, #JeremyHunt (successfully) lobbied for #HS2 to start at #Euston - that is reach central #London....

But, hey, concerns about #London-focussed policy-making & the dismissal of the interests of those beyond #Bormingham is just paranoia, right?


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

Consultancy contracts ahoy!


nostr:npub1fm8d5fkmu3y9n5c9ne97n8j0p8xuk48974ecap7x9dr6r3azfpksa9rwrr

I couldn't watch it, as I was unable to hear the soundtrack over the sound of my grinding teeth. We switched channels....


In April 2022, a first class stamp went up to 95p... and now after a second increase in a year, has risen to £1.25.

That's an increase of around 30%...

The BoE will blame the posties' pay settlement, while Royal Mail blames falling volumes, the costs of the universal service obligation & other costs...

Whatever the reasons, it will do nothing to rebuild postal users confidence in the service on offer in relation to its cost(s).


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

You've already put more thought into the consequences than they have... its a classic but of declaratory politics... the practicalities will sink it almost immediately


A new development in #outsourcing: the #Tories have announced a plan to rent cells ro accommodate #prisoners from overcrowded UK jails... a new twist on the Costa del Crime?

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/03/uk-could-rent-space-in-foreign-jails-to-ease-shortage-of-cells


Responding to #KemiBadenoch's claim the UK is the best place to be black...Nels Abbey responds:

'the idea of pondering if Britain is the best place to be an oppressed minority is preposterous. The question should never be: “Is Britain the best place to be Black?” The question and measure should be: “Is Britain as good a place to be Black as it is to be white?'

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/03/britains-best-place-to-be-black-kemi-badenoch-tory


nostr:npub1vcq9dcr2ym9mg05exyqr3xpzs42d7qvtxqutwwj0frr6lr5catasplyamg

Indeed; and of course, many other countries are the recipients of far more migrants than we are


A person on #benefits responds to #JeremyHunt's toxic pronouncements:

'people need compassion, especially when times are hard – as is so often the case when you’re on benefits. But what do we get instead? Being constantly kicked when we’re down just pushes us further away from society; making us feel excluded and undeserving. It feels as if the poorest are just easy targets; who politicians return to again & again, and especially when they think there’s a vote in it'!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/03/jeremy-hunt-job-life-on-benefits-chancellor


#SuellaBraverman's is at it again... warning against a 'hurricane' of migrants that will become 'uncontrolled & unmanageable' without a #Tory govt.

She then went on to declare  that the #Tories are 'far too squeamish about being smeared as racist to properly bring order to the chaos” of #migration!

She then went on to claim there were millions of people who want to come to Britain & they must be stopped.

There's so many things that disgust me about this that I cannot think where to start!


nostr:npub15zu89j2k6sja8qgcs5qdu2pfra5kemhlgeern2cpcw2svkuvkudqu3s7lx nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

I rather like how small 'conservative' is... but still a bit bigger than c*nts.... I'd have lost money on that pairing


nostr:npub1vspfykmwy66l02zrj0zum8dzl8adm6m9aruhrqmwmmxwawgv3nxqj2sn7r

There's a lot of analysis of #Corporations (albeit now some year old) that suggests actually MNC retain both the culture & to some extent ownership structure of their 'home' economy.... albeit within the limits of the overall global capitalist model - in other words they retain some national characteristics... while this may have shifted a bit in the years since the research I doubt it has completely evaporated... so it still makes sense to talk of a Canadian (based) MNC


nostr:npub1vspfykmwy66l02zrj0zum8dzl8adm6m9aruhrqmwmmxwawgv3nxqj2sn7r

Good work; perhaps I should have said 'based in Canada'?... but the key thing for the post was non-domestic to the UK


nostr:npub1p85v3ng50rrfem0m4x6ddj9u626vstmtlvgqlt20lqhkvj9v8aqq7pdeg5

You think? If it got past Battersea I'd be surprised 😉


nostr:npub19spuspr05s2852cnjvzd5xy70j8adte9ht94jz7gvvn9lwd3y7jsj0rerx

Yes & part of me thinks she might make the #Tories unelectable for a generation... which would be good (but then again I may being optimistic about this particular possible turn of events)


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

I think they're definitely getting a little concerned about how its going.... but how far they think they can damage it is another Q. - but I wouldn't put anything past them!


nostr:npub14hyqslrgmdq3s08zh4mpkjarluvwtr3cj7wt9qec6u6at8lkc9ls3txxmu

Its the classic case of we're right & were betrayed - for Truss  by the cabal of the bond markets - and so just need a better run at it with the same policies (its like the ever lengthening time #Brexiters now think it will tee us to reap the benefits because the EU is working against poor little Britain)


#RobertJenrick thinks people should have more children to provide carers for their old age... and presumably for the Right this also has the advantage of increasing the #workforce thereby (potentially) putting downwards pressure on wages?

However, given the #universalcredit cap on claims for over two children, Jenrick seems unaware of the policies of his own government, which seems to want to contain the birth rate of the poor not expand it?

More #Tory policy incoherence!


So, now #RishiSunak claims he cannot hand over #WhatsAp messages to the #CovidEnquiry because he's changed his phone... a line of argument already tried by #BorisJohnson & found lacking.

The key issue is the immediate response by #Tories in government at the time is to make accessing these messages more difficult; suggesting they already know they include damning evidence, but also that we know what we need to see

What do the right always say? Oh yes: 'the innocent have nothing to hide'!


nostr:npub1cukk2hf3tq2r4pau40cwnxp82urklvp4qlh3xpyhlxfqlaaumjqsy9hwfd

Yes, I agree; I've always regarded her as a bit like William Hague - the danger of a clever #Tory - her views are dissimilar, but her potential ability to look sensible to the populace has (as you suggest) been under-recognised


Another day, another large chunk of #infrastructure is bought up by foreign #investors;

UK #renewableenergy firm Banks Renewables (a major operator of #windfarms) is being bought by Brookfield from #Canada.

Again one has to wonder why foreign investors often seem keener to invest in UK #GreenTransition than UK investors?

(a couple of decades down the track will this be the #water sector all over again, I wonder, with accusations of lack of continued investment & rent seeking? Time will tell)


you'll be unsurprised to know that while the #BMA is willing to go to ACAS for mediated pay talks, #SteveBarclay (through 'friends') as said there's an offer on the table, take it or leave it...

One can only conclude that the #Health Secretary thinks by paying hard ball he can 'break' the #Doctors... even if in the short-term he may be proved right, in the longer term, this intransigence will have a major impact on Doctors' morale & recruitment.

One more #Tory wrecking the #healthservice!!


As #retail #inflation continues to fall (but of course prices keep going up, just more slowly), will the #BoE think its #interestrate policy is working or carry on taking the Catherine Mann position that more pain is needed to get down to the target of 2% even if this means a #recession...

It'll be more 'if its not hurting its not working' rhetoric from Threadneedle St. I suspect, claiming its all a 'price worth paying' when its not them that are paying... but hey, I've said all this before!


Aha, meeting with #Murdoch, a sympathetic opinion piece by Simon Jenkins in the Guardian... is #KemiBadenoch jostling for position ahead of Sunak throwing in the towel?

Is she going to make a pitch, in the face of the Trussite faction, of being the leader of a (revived) 'sensible' #Tory party?

Right now I'm sure #RishiSunak is looking over his shoulder every time he leaves the office... The ides of October?


Q. as 60 MPs join the #LizTruss 'group', one can only wonder if the #Tories might be about to have an SDP moment?

Might Liz & her chums split from the party?

Given the #Tories record of keeping dissent inside the party & its focus on gaining power, one would think it would be unlikely.... except that the Trussites are already showing scant regard for reality....

A torrid election might force a split? We shall see...


So as Dame #SharonWhite prepares to step down for the chair of John Lewis Partnership (after the shortest tenure of any of its chairs), the Q. will be whether the experiment with non-retail appointments will continue.

Either, she bought a new & vital perspective to the partnership's future, or her difficulties show that generalist management (with little specialist/sectoral experience) doesn't have what it takes to steer a firm through a crisis.

Take your pick on which conclusion you prefer


Now #RishiSunak has confirmed that #HS2 will have no #northern end, much as the 'rumours' has indicated, who in their right mind would take his 'commitments' to other (replacement) #investment seriously.

How strange that despite all *its* problems & cost-overruns #Crossrail still got built, but something that might (and I know that is a contentious issue) have benefitted the #North has been progressively neutered.

Its almost like our Government seldom travels outside the M25 & then by air!


This week I've been mainly reading, no. 95.

If you've enjoyed Balzac's The Unknown Masterpiece, then you will likely find Dore Ashton's A Fable of Modern Art (1991) of some interest. It traces the ripples of Balzac's fable of Frenhofer, an artist unable to finish his masterwork, through its influence on Cezanne, Picasso, Rilke & Schoenberg, which also allows her to explore some key themes around 'genius' in the arts of the late C19th/early C20th. Short but fascinating #arthstiory
nostr:npub1kt3hutklgrma64ykjwk4trxq9rtyfnxhkjz729g4pd9xl7hzhrjse75004


What might we do if we wanted to see expanded adoption of #heatpumps?

The #Nordic experience suggests,
'there is no single policy that can deliver a mass market for heat pumps. A well-designed policy mix of economic instruments, financial support and regulation, underpinned by coordination and engagement, turns out to be the most effective recipe for scaling up heat-pump deployment'!

nostr:npub1vyv5w2cjr3uvu2d39sjjjg4nt9k72emusf9cmwcu6gcmmflue8xqqvfsps maps out what that might mean... and for the UK this implies why it won't!
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-heat-pumps-became-a-nordic-success-story/?_thumbnail_id=48213&utm_content=buffer302f3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer


The likely them music for the finale of the #ToryPartyConference

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_x6QmuJdms


nostr:npub13usw3fpzm7snqmkp2l2x5lr8wer9xnwx8jtncpfwuqywgzjra9sq0aplp8

What's also interesting is for years the Right resisted #minimumwages as a distortion of 'efficient' labour markets & then when they arrived bailed to keep them low... but when you're in a tight spot politically....


What is extraordinary about #SuellaBraverman is that she has managed to make #PrittiPatel look better than we had thought at the time (although, of course, still a nightmare).... indeed, this seems to be the job of the current crop of ministers; to make us reassess those who went before, encouraging us to think the earlier ministers weren't as bad, because now the real nutters are on the public stage!

Is it all some cunning plan?


For this struggling to buy a home, one way to square the circle is longer #mortgages.

Some of you may be old enough to recall that during a similar housing 'boom' in #Japan, some decades ago, Japanese #financialservices initiated the multi-generational mortgage.... I wonder how long it will be before we get to that position in the UK?

(In japan it prefigured their 'lost decade' which incidentally also doesn't look dissimilar to where we are going either!)

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/oct/02/one-in-four-new-uk-homeowners-opt-for-marathon-mortgages-to-cut-payments


Having already flagged he wants to cut #benefits, #JeremyHunt looks to be sugaring the pill by aiming those cuts on out-of-work benefits;

by increasing the sanctions on these who 'refuse' to look for work while on unemployment benefit, while also putting up the #minumumwage, today he'll be using a narrative of being on the #workers side rather than the 'shirkers' side.

Any one on minimum wage who thinks #JeremyHunt is on their side only needs to look around to see that's really not the case!


nostr:npub12k4e3k26jlx502cagnfvtzk568clyjltu6gnfjc9pjwk5sumstts6n6gj5

I think it tells us much about the lack of manoeuvrability within the institution of POTUS - what may seem like a position which would allow the individual to express/follow their own values actually sits in a system adept at 'explaining' to the incumbent why they need to do something different... some willingly go along with it, some not so much, but the ability to break out of the narrow confines is more difficult than observers presume, I suspect


I'm going to say/quote this again as it does seem to capture the UK right now....

“How did you go bankrupt?”
“Two ways. Gradually & then suddenly"

And right now it feels like we are very swiftly pivoting from the former to the latter....

[quote from Ernest Hemmingway's The Sun Also Rises]


You'll recall #RishiSunak's weakening of carbon targets lead to a collapse in the 'market' for carbon emissions offsets; the price is now half that within the EU (having previously been at rough parity).

So, the fact that the EU is about to bring in a #carbontax regime at the border that requires importers to pay the difference between their local offset price & the EU price, will both add costs to exporters into the EU & also mean the EU gets the tax not the UK!

Another Sunak own-goal!
h/t FT


Tom Gauld on perhaps a central issue behind our failure to really get to grips with the #ClimateCrisis.... admitting we might be to blame!

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/160/807/207/421/925/original/e329f4396aed5641.png


As tributes pour in for #JimmyCarter's 99th birthday, I'm reminded of a remark I once heard (which I'll have to paraphrase):

Jimmy Carter may not have been the best President of the US, but he sure as hell was the best ex-president!

Which, I think is not too far wide of the mark


#BAESystems have now confirmed that they have won the #AUKUS contract worth nearly £4bn to develop a dedicated #submarine capacity... much of this work will come to #Cumbria.

This looks like pretty good news for #workers in #Barrow, but the bigger Q. is whether this is the sort of #investment the UK should be encouraging?

Given this looks a lot like 'military Keynesiansim' I reflected on this issue in a piece for nostr:npub1yepk8n2nca8e5md0zclgc8kn8egf0kg7al0w3q3ruh7rfmyplvfq3wrqsz

https://northwestbylines.co.uk/business/local-business/is-military-keynesianism-good-for-britain/


So how much does #Brexit cost?

In a letter to a Labour MP (seen by the FT), Cabinet Office minister Baroness Lucy Neville-Rolfe admits,

“It will depend greatly on how businesses adapt their business models & supply chains to integrate the new controls regimes. We estimate these new costs of the model at £330mn p.a [per annum] overall, across all EU imports,”

Did I miss the big bus with this on the side?

Oh that's right, all those warnings about the costs of Brexit were 'project fear'!


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

Ah, no, the crucial Q. is:
which people?


Respond to & reflecting on #SuellaBraverman's recent remarks, here Kenan Malik exploring the complexity of the UK's #multiculturalism... as he notes its both good & bad news, but the #Tories crude politicking around the issue(s) is no help... an interestingly nuanced read for a Sunday Morning!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/01/diverity-has-worked-in-britain-trouble-starts-when-we-try-to-manage-it


As Torsten Bell notes in today's Observer (not online yet), a key problem behind so many issues is a lack of #investment - from the #NHScrisis to #RAAC in #schools, from our #productivity problems, to the state of our #infrastructure; so much would be different if the UK invested at the rate more normal across #Europe.

But notably behind the UK's seeming short-termism is, to me, a wider problem:

in the UK we have just stopped believing in the future... with devastating effects across society!


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

Yes, I had a lot at TM quite recently on someone's recommendation, and thought DG seemed superior... but that may be confirmation bias as I'm already a DG subscriber.


If, like me, sometime the relentless news cycle gets you down (notably in the coverage this weekend of the #Tory conference next week), let me recommend the #slownews magazine Delayed Gratification (I've been a subscriber for some years).

It does long-form reporting on the news but after an interval of three or more months... it also has absolutely brilliant data visualisations.

The journalism is great & offers views of issues often missing from the mainstream press.

https://www.slow-journalism.com


nostr:npub17qn6axv00naq4gs5ufgqc0jzt2eghhuxz8uhzma33e0gx7rxdvlsjjxgwe nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

but its classic 'it wasn't me' conspiracy isn't... we're great so the f*ck-ups must be caused by outsiders...


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

I didn't but I can't say I'm surprised... nor will I be when it is strangely not mentioned after next week, either


#artificialintelligence is being used to write #books that 'compete' with best-sellers on #Amazon's website... to be frank, #publishers have always run with many 'me too' tittles, but #AI has both made this process quicker, but also (as the story suggest) now a lot more sinister...

The Q. here is, of course, can Amazon disprove that it is colluding with these 'publishers' (with a big anti-trust case in the US, this may be more difficult than they might hope)

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/sep/30/authors-shocked-to-find-ai-ripoffs-of-their-books-being-sold-on-amazon


Two charts that suggest even #Tory voters have had enough of this government - with the two issues the #Tories are seen by most as failing on, being the very issues that #voters now regard as key.

However, while that may be good news on the #NHScrisis - people may appreciate its an Govt, engineered crisis... the issue of 'handling' #immigration may be less positive result if that means a tougher stance is preferred (by these voters)

(the poll is of people who voted Tory in the last election)

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/158/623/743/573/968/original/b3093001482af820.png

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/158/625/382/036/243/original/9460f1049054a0a0.png


No-one will be surprised that #JeremyHunt is saying he might cut the #welfare budget to pay for #taxcuts... but the Q. must be whose benefits are going to be cut?

#RishiSunak is going to going into bat for the #pensioners.... but Hunt already has his eyes on the #longtermsick who he thinks need to be 'encouraged' back to work... so I'm guessing (yet) more constraints on unemployment benefits (more conditionality, longer delay after job loss)...

More toxicity from the #Tories

#GTTO


The #surveillancesociety is like a budget version of #orwell... run on excel spreadsheets & baking off when the threat of #lawyers is aired.

That the DfE is trying to silence then is no real surprise... but its still shocking that this (rather than engagement with the views/criticisms) is the strategy adopted.

Thought not named here I have at least one good friend (and active unionist) who I'm sure also has their own excel spreadsheet & file.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/sep/30/it-felt-like-a-dictatorship-uk-teaching-experts-hit-out-at-government-bid-to-cancel-them


When I was young(er) small #music venues were the place to find new bands to follow, to see people trying out new ideas & generally to see #creativity in the raw [I'm of the age when #pubrock was a thing]... as a #politicaleconomist I'd also suggest they are part off a pipeline that allowed new talent to try out material & styles without masses of investment (or major record company interest).

So seeing the widening decimation of the small gig  circuit is depressing!

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2023/sep/30/small-uk-music-venues-struggle-to-stay-open-polar-bear-hull


nostr:npub1psdfxfpxz2cwmmnsk60y3nqpn2tqh9n24h4hstvfkwvr6eaek9js499sr7 nostr:npub1kt3hutklgrma64ykjwk4trxq9rtyfnxhkjz729g4pd9xl7hzhrjse75004

and indeed, it didn't (really)


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd E

well Gibson & Strerling definitely one the down the alternative history route so I took that depiction with a pink of salt along with other real people who appeared... certainly not one of Gibson's better projects


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

yes Ada Lovelace make a fleeting appearance as a gambling obsessed nutter... indeed all the #women are pretty lightly sketched in - but it was thirty years ago (I suppose)


This week I've been mainly reading, No. 94.
I've been rather disappointed by William Gibson & Bruce Sterling's The Difference Engine (1990/2011), which while presenting an immersive depiction of a world in which Babbage's 'computer' had become an equivalent of later computing (both influenced by early #SteamPunk fiction & going on to influence later books), sacrifices plot for atmosphere; the plot such as it is really not much & offers no real pay-off. Sadly, style over substance!

nostr:npub1kt3hutklgrma64ykjwk4trxq9rtyfnxhkjz729g4pd9xl7hzhrjse75004


nostr:npub1wvwzal8sdkmgpf3wd72q4xfvh59u9m6fk9ujdwwzn9j96j9n4qpqqx4puk has started a series of posts on the legalities of the #postoffice #HorizonIT  scandal; the first includes an interesting observation.

In 1982 Sect.69 of PACE set out that: 'it was for the prosecution to show that the computer was operating correctly & not for the defendant to show that computer was not operating correctly'!

But, section 69 was repealed in 1999... but think how the PO case against #postmasters might have gone if hadn't been repealed?

https://davidallengreen.com/2023/09/computer-says-guilty-an-introduction-to-the-evidential-presumption-that-computers-are-operating-correctly/


nostr:npub1gxtz8dz7ujqcy9hrnyhrykk6xujgpukgccvhpea7evhev7xzpsdqnej9na nostr:npub1tfu8nzsvrpf8y5ds3qa9a99nr7njnlyxdlejwmkcfhk5sw78f8eqxhg9kh nostr:npub1fszdg6djev5aw9hkevn0t0ed62atrjtl6tf5ksjgt5awyr8zf3gsx8s5m6

yes, perhaps they should adopt the #financialservcies mantra of 'past performance is not guide to future returns'....


nostr:npub1dugpgfap4alul20lyn2vglwud8tss4ytd008l7v0pnm8w97lvnlqfzmkax

Not sure I'd want to be in #Paris right now


nostr:npub19dyfwh97q0yje6ntrhq6g2qvl2lh08psea7nm7a47trwz5r5xfcqs8ecvs

Thanks for the correction, which I have boosted


nostr:npub1nv3lsfmpg55cld697agn2sfjxmsj7lx8pq5gv5ad3fh3h6hujw0qwzr77s

And I'm liking the rhyme!


nostr:npub1fszdg6djev5aw9hkevn0t0ed62atrjtl6tf5ksjgt5awyr8zf3gsx8s5m6

There's plenty of blame to go round...


nostr:npub1ft53z0484lnwvgv93yawk4j2h8dtnneqrklcm8de8lxd5spej5rqq0mhck

Sure, sorry, I was meaning elective in the sense of only for 'cosmetic' reasons... even thought, of course, for some such reasons for surgery can be compelling...


nostr:npub1ly26mcp4r2yxs9fcsacegyxn6tu8pat7hlxlnk8fc2z573swk8qqlqp3k0

Great point, thanks!


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

As someone who has always sought to avoid any medical intervention, unless absolutely necessary, people's appetite for medical procedures (for whatever reason) is a mystery to me


So if you wanted (another) example of what happens when regulatory oversight is reduced or removed from #healthcare, all you need to do is look at the 'wild west' of #cosmeticsurgery....

Of course, there is a perfectly professional & well-regulated segment of the market for such elective #surgery but there are vast areas where charlatans are taking advantage of the desperate or foolish....

And you thought #dentistry was bad?

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2023/sep/30/regulating-cosmetic-surgery-uk-absolute-nightmare-top-surgeon


As #RishiSunak prepares to abolish the winter fuel allowance for #pensioners, taking our cue from #SteveBarclay, we should now al loudly accuse Rishi Sunak of withholding #heat from the elderly....


From Guardian letters this morning:

Max von Thun decries “more than a decade of disastrous government under the Conservatives”. Mr von Thun may not remember, but no one else should forget that five of those disastrous Tory years were enabled by the Lib Dems voting for & providing intellectual heft to George Osborne’s austerity budgets, the core reason for the social, economic and political disasters we have endured and continue to endure.
Alex Gallagher
Largs, Ayrshire

Absolutely right!!


I love 'Moose' by Kirsty Elson; she creates art by upcycling driftwood & other found materials (circulated by #WomensArt at the other place)... but it also reveals the enduring influence of #Picasso's bicycle bull.

#arthistory

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/152/714/577/640/747/original/032e129b91d579f3.jpeg

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/152/714/900/946/584/original/eeaf0cd9f14bc902.jpeg


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

Yes, a 'bun fight' looks likely at the very least... if not more


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

Its a classic example of performative politics... Barclay thinks if he says it enough times it'll be true (or at least true to his audience at Conference)


If you wanted an example of the impact of a change of attribution has in the #artmarket, here's one for you.

In November 2022 a C17th pinging of Moses, then attributed to 'a follower of Guido Reni' was sold (against an estimate of 6,000 euros)... now reattributed to Guercno (a well-known Italian Baroque painter), its coming up for sale in #Paris with a price expected to be 'in the region' of 2m euros!

Same painting... different attribution leads to price rise of over 33,000%

h/t Art Newspaper


nostr:npub10laqwv365tqxmsmfearp5t5k5yu0ye0qua5qwl0tmmzjppnr0s2qjw66xc nostr:npub1m00vg5yet95tmyd8qfca8zc7valv2afz05cj8wsct8pwdc0tl46qy7623z

This is where the #Bcorp becomes an interesting development....


The war of words around the #Doctors #strike reaches a new low with #SteveBarclay acusing striking consultants of withholding #cancer treatments;

But, as Dr Vishal Sharma (BMA) observes: it was “incredibly rich of the secretary of state to invoke time-critical procedures when his government has overseen a steep increase in waiting lists that saw them reach record levels even before any strike action took place”.

Its the #Tories that have caused the #NHScrisis not the doctors!

#supportourNHS


While #Wilko's unsecured creditors look likely to only get around 8% of their money, and the firm's company pension is suffering a likely £50m funding gap, its now clear that the family paid itself £9m in dividends since 2019... while profits halved.

Hmmm.... not enough to make up the shortfall, but a rather different end-game form the company's pensioners & their suppliers.


Invasion of the #BedBugs... its seems #Paris is suffering a city-wide bed bug infestation.

Across the city & the metro, bed bugs are everywhere, including GDG airport (so even transfer passengers are potentially exposed).

The fumigation firms are over-stretched & the bugs are increasingly resistant to chemical treatments.

Next year's #Olympics may be a bit of an icy affair...


So, if you were a betting person, you might take the number of #businesses exhibiting at party conference as one indicator (among many) of where to place your bet on the next election:

So, the news that more businesses are ar the #LabourParty conference than will be at the #Tories' conference.

Looks like gamblers might need to (further) shorten the odds on a Labour victory... but for those who think #KierStarmer is already listening to business too much, this will be more grist for the mill


nostr:npub1als3sjvknvhnrstajlt62mjchcxtp99jv4v3jm03gtzdrhz5dtksuxw5yl

Interesting Q.... I wonder?


nostr:npub1nky4yuce4fu52tgrc4zcg7vjkhhrj7pzhpd4n7khxtn52cchck2qlnrk4g

Yes, I think the key to it all is the threshold... but that's how we deal with ensuring some level of progressiveness in income tax so there's no real issue about an IHT threshold, more about where exactly it might be....


nostr:npub1gzcdqqmuhpefjtldj350kkzzld4shpllrqsqh3sftc0mrmvfmfcsd4l4mn

political ripples can sometimes be revolutionary, you're right!


nostr:npub12jvr3dezh6eux7urwtv80pghru3hn9gyp9mnu3wgygg0ltrq0lzs8hgf8c

Yes, I completely agree... I increasingly saw the results of this process in my classes at #university... some of my students had no real idea why thy were there, nor any clear ideas about what they might get out of it, which undermined their ability to make the most of the period at Uni... its a really sad state of affairs


Meanwhile in #Wales, a new version of the deposit-return model for bottles is being tried out in #Brecon... its such a simple way of encouraging recycling.

When I was a child in #London, a good way of supplementing your pocket money was finding bottles to return for the deposit... perhaps a new generation will do so too (and it'll get them out of the house).

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/28/welsh-town-first-to-trial-10p-bottle-and-can-return-scheme-across-community


To be clear: #InheritanceTax is a tax on unearned income coming to the recipients, not a tax on those who've died.

Lets start there & ask why people should be advantaged in life by the accident of having rich(er) but now dead parents?

You'll want to claim a 'right' to give things to your children, but given the law (except in particular circumstances) doesn't support contesting wills on the basis of a 'right' to inherit, why do we privilege the interests of the dead?

Just thinking aloud


The financial costs of #highereducation increasingly exact a #mentalhealth cost on #students...

It is a sobering comparison that rather than having three years of intellectual development & mental growth, #university students seem more likely to sink into #depression... no-one would expect university not to be challenging, but this should be empowering not debilitating....

There is something very wrong with how we treat university & we urgently need to fix it!

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/sep/29/university-students-more-at-risk-of-depression-than-non-students-study


So much for the #Tories narrative of being a low-tax party...

by next year the proportion of national income taken by #taxation will have risen from 33% to 37% over four years... to be absolutely clear, I have no problem with such rates of UK #taxation, the bigger Q. is what it is being used for.

All Govt.s 'tax & spend'... so don't obsess about the #tax element lets obsess about the absolutely disastrous spending strategy undertaken by the #Tories...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/29/uk-households-face-tax-rise-of-3500-a-year-by-next-election-finds-ifs


New #ONS data suggests that White British people's mortality rate is above those from different ethnic backgrounds.

Partly this is about #class & wealth - deprived areas (often populated by white #workingclass) have higher mortality rates;

Partly this is an issue of the 'healthy migrant'; it seems that #migrants to UK often have better health than life-time residents.

Both, point to our dysfunctional #foodsystem that offers rubbish to the poor(er) sectors of society as a key factor

h/t FT


The danger off drawing conclusions from polling;

the example of the #inheritancetax debate.

A simple Q. produces one sort of response, a more nuanced Q. something a little different;

it comes down to whether the Q. is framed as a general issue of being able to pass on wealth to the following generation tax-free, or accepting that it will be taxed & asking by how much;

the former makes it seem people do not want #IHT, but the latter reveals a desire for fairness & taxation of inheritance.

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/146/888/052/306/165/original/b943194e6f086a9a.png


Its a strange world where the UK's Govt. is seeking to 'streamline' the planning process for the landing point of the world's longest subsea #electricity cable to underpin a 25 year deal to import #solar generated electricity from #Morocco, at the same time that it does little to ease the planning for #onshorewind & (through a lack of flexibility) undermines new #offshorewind projects...

That said, at this stage the project may never get going if the financing doesn't materialise!


The US Dept. of State says that #China 'employs a variety of deceptive & coercive methods as it attempts to influence the international information environment.. [which] will reshape the global information landscape, creating biases & gaps that could even lead nations to make decision that subordinate their economic and security interests to Beijing’s'!

I'm sure this is true as are the potential effects... but of curse other countries might say (& have said) this about the USA!


(I'm nine days late on this, but its still worth celebrating)

50 years ago #BillieJeanKing struck a blow that transformed #Tennis & #sport more generally - her playing & campaigning on #genderequality started the shift in #gender relations in tennis into the Open Era, and is still rippling today (not least in the recent surge in #womensfootball) - she was (and is) a revolutionary.

#feminism

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/146/792/933/462/296/original/c1795fc1c1e1d580.jpeg


nostr:npub177hcl02zc07jh699lpke8endp4gd6rdzpytdwmwa5ypl5nzerqxqkua2d8

Yes, exactly & well put!


Another week, another problem with #technology?

Is you #IPhone 15 overheating?

If so, you're not alone....

Already there's a certain amount of victim blaming go on... 'you've used cheap(er) charge cables'... or my favourite 'you gaming/downloading/stream excessively'...

#Apple seem to be staying quiet... so who now what they know?


As #universities grapple with how do make policy on #artificialintelligence & assessment, its well to be clear about one thing:

USING #AI TO WRITE YOUR ASSIGNMENT IS CHEATING!

But, of course the reason is it tempting is about the pressure for #students balancing study & work & the instrumentalism of education to be just about its end (the certificate).

Markers will never catch all the uses of AI, but students should understand the only person they're cheating is their future selves' knowledge


nostr:npub1zv95ukzf82qa3p5gmx4df3k4pscg3dgadf6x8n57x8qzhhfyfkgspqn73l

That'll be next, I'm sure


nostr:npub1z4e6l8dnhnxr5q60vfxt38l4thlqam2xfv9g6c2245hgl4yv54ps56aasw

You might find this of interest that I wrote for nostr:npub1yepk8n2nca8e5md0zclgc8kn8egf0kg7al0w3q3ruh7rfmyplvfq3wrqsz a while back....

https://northwestbylines.co.uk/news/education/who-should-pay-for-students-to-go-to-university/


I have a confession... over the last year, #Impossible has become my  weekday #lunchtime #guiltypleasure.... great show, Rick Edwards is a good host & the final round has (impossible) questions that catch me out every day...

Worth a watch if you've nothing on at lunchtime (which I accept if you're not #retired, may not be happening).


nostr:npub1v5x3hxyj04vflzpxttc3f4exsjkl65u0daufjys86md8zdexdjnqskfmhy

Yes, I would agree... however, there is also a dystopian version of UBI (see Vonnegut's Player Piano for an fictional take on how it might play out badly)


nostr:npub1f5tgehxv3dv4hkz0rtyycql8z3jykr36zw9u8x02jnt7404q9zlqmqr8ft

Its more the character of those interests that economists sometimes get wrong... they think all interest is priced in, whereas especially in national #energy markets, issues around national energy security 'distort' the market; this is, of course no surprise to political economists... it what we would expect... the free market ideologues get angry, however, that the market is not being allowed to 'work'!


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

Ha ha... my wife was a knitting tutor for years & as such I've always thought everyone who knitted could knit anything... but hey, I'm with you on #outsourcing...


nostr:npub10kcanyrevwyaafkmcjkh2zcaz8tg9ujc3f4xn74ef5dp5vwptjnqqmqjyy

Yes, I know that's the appeal of self-employment... but apart from the lucky few, the pressures are just from different organisations (banks, creditors, customers)... but, yes, there is at least some autonomy in being self-employed (even if in my view these benefits are largely over-sold)


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

Aha, get those knitting needles out... you've got a lot of work ahead


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd nostr:npub183wq87x9s9r58was22h2yprcex7jneh0j4eapkeavfu3nzrcfxtsz4mdyy nostr:npub1hj64qx7f5lvt55rp4pg72a0p6jp20c5j5tcaveyqujgnplwx3wpsd4lg52

actually, I find this a little creepy... like something that might happen when we find the Asteroid fragments that have been brought back to earth have an parasitic life-from that transforms humans into something else... or is my reading of The Expanse series finally having too much influence on my thought?

#scifi


nostr:npub1v5x3hxyj04vflzpxttc3f4exsjkl65u0daufjys86md8zdexdjnqskfmhy

yes many of my (economics for non-economics) students were really interested in UBI as a policy solution to a range of #workers' concerns


nostr:npub1f5tgehxv3dv4hkz0rtyycql8z3jykr36zw9u8x02jnt7404q9zlqmqr8ft

It also represents a (perhaps misplaced) notion that national suppliers abroad, will always treat all market players equally... actually what we saw last winter was (not unsurprisingly) when reserves were low, national use was privileged over market contracting exports.... its free market ideology trumping strategic energy concerns (which now looks a little short sighted)


nostr:npub1e4za4gz2tx6fja3lakdd0x7zdmextmvw6zq0ud7h3zlpeuqmrxmsp4y6ua

Hmmm... equally, the less able people are able to 'buy their way out' of the state #education system, the more support that the #Schools may be able to garner from a vocal set of parents, with better political connections?


nostr:npub1shw9yn8j44v9h8y3f3czfrpr9q9d5750jlf5xgxljkjhwr508wjsejaesf

Yes, I think that's right... the reality of the #NHS (and #NHScrisis) would put many off pursuing a career in #healthcare in this country


It tells us all we need to know about the state of the nation, when the #NationalGrid is glad to report that due to other countries have good #gas storage, there sis less liklig=hood of #powercuts this #winter... once again we are reliant on the kindness of strangers, but if we keep setting fire to our international reputation we may find such kindness is either more expensive, or less evident...
#headinmyhands


nostr:npub1n4lgzwh78ncf8y22tpe43hqx4qlrpgkvpvhrs0dg2q8wdlyzex8scpvgmk

Yes, I wondered about that (the VAT rate)


nostr:npub1e4za4gz2tx6fja3lakdd0x7zdmextmvw6zq0ud7h3zlpeuqmrxmsp4y6ua

Yes, I appreciate there are families making such sacrifices, but I'd like us to be in a situation where the choice to move schools (for reasons of disaffection) could be done *within* a pluralistic and well run state system... I don't doubt your sacrifice but as you hint few are really able to mobilise the funds to do what you did.... & sometimes when they do the results are not as good as they were for your children.

Its a old slogan but 'no-one left behind' sums it up for me


Q. are firms using a demand to reduce #workingfromhome as a way of thinning out their #workforce (even if there might be potential cases for 'constructive dismissal') ahead of a #recession?

Given that it looks like some staff facing spiralling #childcare costs choose to quit if they are unable to #WFH, the use of return-to-office policies to reduce staffing levels doesn't seem implausible, especially if demands to return are applied differently to different staff (?)

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/sep/28/childcare-costs-return-to-office-parents-pebble


Amy Hwang (FT) sums up in a cartoon what I was already hearing from my #students some years ago... there is a great desire (not surprisingly) for meaningful secure work.... who'd have thought?

That they also need a good wage to survive in modern society, is not as the FT has it 'wishful thinking' but rather a not unreasonable hope for what has sometimes be referred to as 'good work'!

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/141/220/111/219/861/original/eaeb820bf0e2f21f.png


The #LabourParty seems to have finally settled their position on #privateschools charitable status, which annoys the hell out of many people.

Rather than change their status (which would require legislative change), they are intending tot week tax regulations so that Independent #schools pay VAT & business rates... its a pragmatic solution, which should see fees rise by 20% (at least to cover the VAT) but may prove insufficient for many who cannot see why their charities in the first place!


nostr:npub1ahsdn9w0n2y7ytqlw3vpejuw0sr0mm9fzve7ycxy5qa46zygaz8s6k8psc

Thanks, but as it was clearly sourced, on the right hand side, I didn't track it down further...


The aspect of the #NHScrisis caused by staff shortages will only be resolved when the #workforce planning has an answer for non-completion of training; a new Nuffield Trust study shows:

only 50% of GPs who take up 'trainingships' go on to practice full-time;

In the 10 yrs to 2021, the number of #doctors who took a break after first two yrs of training doubled to 70% & nearly 20% don't return;

For #Nurses, 12% drop out during training & a further 20% leave the profession with 2 yrs!

Not good!


Not sure why (on a Wednesday) people are posting #SoulfulSaturday, but happy to go with some mid-week #jazz.... here's a soulful Sonny Criss playing my favourite track from the first jazz LP I ever bought... (current collection 3500+ LPs) - a #ProfDJ #jazznight classic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQziUjAwLWs


nostr:npub1wyu5tn758hc399kq7z0gcf0s4tqxs8z8rn2me5672pnks4429s2s66t407

yes, I have a DB pension (now drawn down after early retirement, but the median size doesn't surprise me as the FT is regularly reporting on the shortfall of contributions vs. retirement 'needs'


nostr:npub1wyu5tn758hc399kq7z0gcf0s4tqxs8z8rn2me5672pnks4429s2s66t407

the 17% is the increase in the total(s) being withdrawn...the average withdrawal this year was just over £7k, so provided the pension pot was over £200k, they'd be within your limit


Here's a breakdown of land-use in the UK... revealing that two thirds of land is used for farming... this proportion, of course far outweighs the share in the #workforce - at around 1%.

We could certainly be making better use of the land (by transforming #farming), as well as utilising it for #renewableenergy. But the point is that this is a major resource that currently is in turmoil due to the shift (read reduction) in farming support after CAP payments are being phased out.

Rethink needed!

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/138/921/706/989/643/original/2b893c20ec4ac51b.png


Some of us are storing up problems for the future... for those lucky enough to have a private #pension, the temptation to withdraw money to cover current expenditures (driven by #inflation & the #Costoflivingcrisis) is growing.

The withdrawals are rising year on year at around 17%... while this is a problem that many might wish they had, for those raiding their pension pots, given we generally under-contribute to pensions (if we have them), this looks to be a potential problem down the road


This appeared in my timeline & I could not resist boosting it (with #alttext

#artificialintelligence

I just love the 2001 reference in the last frame....

h/t nostr:npub1xn93y37uhtugjz523y402pmuzct9f2dtspf6cz3s44jwx4e4tk9q6lxx39

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/138/829/867/040/362/original/4523f53dc9575d56.png


This evening watching #GeordieHospital (my wife *loves* hospital fly-on-the-wall docs) I became intrigued by the sort of familiar #jazz tracks... so decided to hunt down the music they were using & it turns out its #librarymusic, produced by De Wolfe music productions.

Knowing this, its hilarious to listen to the music & think about what the composer was they to pastiche; to be frank, they're often do a pretty good job (there was a great 60's soul jazz ensemble groove that set my search off).


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

Yup, we like a bit of Etta over in the £LuneValley too


nostr:npub1fec3jf8jqyh94kx6edmje06e7n9hgvhlmwh8ff0c67k8nds6x4sqxrs7uv

Yes an interesting real-time experiment - free HE, no #Tories... a causal link?


Reflecting on the Met #Police finding other forces were unwilling to provide cover for 'striking' fire arms officers, I wonder if this is actually a microcosm of the UK's international relations after #SuellaBraverman's rebuke from the UNHCR...

like the Met in the wider 'society' of police forces, the UK's reputation in the wider society of states is being degraded & future requests for help may be met by silence...

which is a little worrying in the wider scheme of things!


nostr:npub1wyu5tn758hc399kq7z0gcf0s4tqxs8z8rn2me5672pnks4429s2s66t407

I'm all for progressive contributory taxation... although the hypothecation you suggest might be difficult to hold to


nostr:npub1wyu5tn758hc399kq7z0gcf0s4tqxs8z8rn2me5672pnks4429s2s66t407

On one hand I agree; both because it gives students more stability & also as you say as this would be an incentive to have full spectrum, well-developed HE right across the country;

but (having taught university students for 25 years) I think you are not fully recognising the value of them being away from hime & (as it were) coming of age with a group of peers - I should say I don't hold a romantic notion of this, it results in all sorts of problems, but still has a value, I think


nostr:npub1cg4v5kk4jcem4cqvsf6a6a37v054jslmn655c36n5lcc4dmxv3psxh9e9x

partly fiscal drag (not moving the threshold while #inflation continues) & partly dues to #houseprices


nostr:npub1jyfem5q6dtujmeh3v353828alnksmr4py6jhx648pk6fe8068ndspwsuap

Ha ha, I love this photo; when revolutionaries could look like your mum! Carson is a towering figure, a true visionary who was early to see the wreckage we wrought in our bid to become more wealthy...


nostr:npub1als3sjvknvhnrstajlt62mjchcxtp99jv4v3jm03gtzdrhz5dtksuxw5yl

Ah yes, but as you sort of hint; the #Tories would it seems prefer to revive #fuedalism


nostr:npub1kj7yq4tzueyf5dfxtqpkx45a2rlegsrdpfg3n6g830e42kshf7ssx64qf6

Yes, I've highlighted that before... its an extraordinary 'disconnect' (no pun intended)... as you say the free market is failing (as one might expect where utilities are concerned)


As students' costs to attend #university continue to spiral, one might conclude that this was all part of a plan to make #highereducation unaffordable for the children from poorer families...

Not so much 'widening participation' as 'narrowing participation'.

Its almost like the Govt. was suspicious of an educated electorate?

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/sep/27/uk-university-students-facing-unprecedented-rent-rises


nostr:npub123857pfhnez29k7fpnhjvwurzt3k5zr5cdl90cht33zjc95rgzss8pv0uw

Yes, I completely agree; we have the research capacity and the geographical location, but as you say it joins a growing list of squandered opportunities - we are a county whose aim is to shoot ourselves in the foot, again & again


The International Energy Agency has issued a stark warning about the need to reduce our reliance on #FossilFuels by a quarter in the next seven years if we are to have any hope of limited temperature rises to 1.5 degrees about the pre-industrial level...

We know what s needed, broadly we have the #greentech to deliver it, what is lacking is political will;

in the UK, #RishiSunak's Govt. is emblematic of the problem of a lack of seriousness on the #ClimateCrisis

#COP28 seem unlikely to help!

https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/111/135/527/342/436/567/original/feab8a96ba0ff05c.png


Meanwhile off the coast of #Scotalnd, development has stopped on the fourth largest #offshore #windpower project in the UK.

Rapid #inflation in costs & no Govt. response on the earlier agreed Green Tax levy on such developments (to recognise the impact of such increased costs) means that like #Vattenfall before it, Community Winpower had decided it cannot continue.

Rather than focus on #IHT, this is the #economic & #tax issue #RishiSunak should have focussed on!

#sustainableenergy is vital!


nostr:npub1vs8l6t2ceur9zaxhcw2nveut2jcwhnpz9z4vgf57jcjueclr80wqgpj2mk

Oh yes, I was under no illusions that they had been 'good' at their job... just less worse


nostr:npub1dg36nmxp88c5fntkckz8q6el3576vtl6e30u4rht8zkzk20u7jhskyudnr explores what the fiscal 'golden rule' might indicate about future Labour Party actions in light of #RachelReeves' commitment to 'fiscal probity';

He offers two angles of critique: one from #MMT & one from an account of #bondmarket attitudes (drawing a lesson from the #LizTruss mini-budget's impact).

But most interesting point:
The UK's governments should stop obsessing about #publicdebt & should switch attention to the UK's 'net worth' to drive decisions!

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2023/09/challenges-to-strong-golden-rule-mmt.html


I'm not sure I should be celebrating, but according to #OfWat, the #NorthWest's #water utility have done well enough on their service targets, to raise their prices unlike almost all the others who have been required to return money to consumers via lower bill due to badly underperforming.... Oh well


I see #SuellaBraverman has made another enemy... the #UNHCR!

I'm not going to quote her loathsome speech, and you can read UNHCR's response at the bottom of the article...

One again, the #Tories seem hell bent on destroying any remaining credibility the UK may have on the international stage... which may have as yet unknown future costs (not that Suella cares)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/26/un-suella-braverman-refugee-convention-unhcr-migration


Every time a LibDem leader makes a commitment to a policy ahead of the election, there's a large cohort of voters who were approaching or at #university in 2010, who may very well shrug & say, 'talk to the hand'!


Why is #RishiSunak interested in reforming #inheritancetax, a #tax which is paid by less than 4% of estates annually... well, perhaps its do with the fact that most people who pay IHT live in constituencies that have a #Tory MP.

Suddenly, as we hurtle towards the next #election, his sudden interest in inheritance(s) make sense.

The problem he faces is this is just so easy to fit into a narrative of a party only interested in helping the rich(est); a slogan handed to Labour on a plate!

h/t FT


If you wanted an index of the complete sh*tshow that is current #American #politics, it would be that commentators are seriously discussing the likely consequences of a second term of #donaldtrump as POTUS (and let me tell you they are).

#headinmyhands


Interestingly before getting the army involved in 'covering' for 'striking' armed response officers, the Met's requests for 'mutual aid' were rejected by three other regional #police forces... which tells you its not just the public that think there is something rotten in the policing of #London!


If you are a critical political economist of any persuasion then let me recommend my old friend Paul Cammack's archive of long-form reviews of books on #IPE & related subjects - all with handy ratings & buy/don't but headline recommendations.

Its easily navigable & Paul's judgement is pretty sound. Even if you don't agree with him (it happens) his discussion will be thought provoking & often send you back to the book(s)

enjoy

nostr:npub1kt3hutklgrma64ykjwk4trxq9rtyfnxhkjz729g4pd9xl7hzhrjse75004
#politicaleconomy
#politics

https://whatsworthreading.weebly.com


nostr:npub19mjr6lgppzu25fdacmpqt53a9xyjnqnl3mjymmccrg8n8laznfasaj6kxq nostr:npub1vh9nmlglyd84nudfdurd9fc9pewp4p925slevzvs0xcue3k005cskv8qsf nostr:npub1ktzgqlvkzanyn262mdjmhnjjsw883ncfgd7qljucattuhffgqf9s92nudu

Certainly, round here (being pretty hilly) e-bikes have been the answer - and its pretty clear there is accelerating adoption


nostr:npub1w7xyqj9arvznx7zdzju89jzx959sgrevh4t2yxr0797jzzzkrydsw89zcw

Indeed there is... whether that's the answer is another (but v.interesting Q.)


nostr:npub1t3raw53wsc47582dlppuf5c3vnr3jx2sha9le6pwm9356u3m5gts0z6knd

aha, just about to order that myself....