Oddbean new post about login | logout Meanwhile in #Scotland: On a low turnout (37.2%), Labour secured a 20% swing in tis favour to win the #Rutherglen #byelection beating the SNP by 58% to 27% of the vote... while the #Tories crashed to 3.9%. And, now the reading of the runes can get under way.... Can #Labour 'win back' Scotland? Is this indicative of how the #Tory vote might go in a general election? Does it suggest concerns about #KeirStarmer's electoral appeal are miss-placed? I'm looking forward to the weekend papers
@43d7c4ea Blimey, it's worse for the SNP than I thought. I saw some exit polls before I went to bed that Lab were at +11. I'm actually pretty annoyed about it. Starmer came out with some woeful bullshit yesterday and he has one of those faces that looks like it's crowing even when he's pretending he isn't.
@43d7c4ea I assume CCHQ are now in full panic mode. The conference didn't go down that well outside of the hall, and the PMs great reset is unravelling with fact checking and closer scrutiny . With this result, any thoughts of the SNP keeping Labour numbers down are probably also out the window. CVs set to update!
@43d7c4ea Probably doesn't suggest a big enough swing to make Labour the largest party in Scotland. But I think twenty seats might be achievable at a push. 10-15 probably more likely. The Ruth Davidson-era Scottish Tory revival is very likely dead now, though. I was reading something earlier that referred to SNP-Con marginals, and honestly, I'm not sure any of those seats should be considered marginal any more. Can see a 1997-esque wipeout of the Tories outside England.
@43d7c4ea I was hoping for Labour to lose, as I think they're in danger of complacency - neither good for the UK or Scotland! After the next GE, if Labour have as big majority as forecast, they won't necessarily deliver the change needed. I wonder if SNP voters stayed away or this result reflects swing against the SNP which the analysts suggest. The Labour leader in Scotland, Anas Sarwar, seems ineffective - for example, I couldn't remember his name, and I'm interested in this stuff!