Oddbean new post about | logout

Notes by b81776c3 | export

 How do I find my own posts?  Or public key? 
 Free exchange | Not so novel
Bitcoin is fiat money, too
What Charles Kindleberger has to say about cryptocurrencies

Sep 22nd 2017

Share
By B.G. | WASHINGTON

FINANCIERS with PhDs like to remind each other to “read your Kindleberger". The rare academic who could speak fluently to bureaucrats and normal people, Charles Kindleberger designed the Marshall Plan and wrote vast economic histories worthy of Tolstoy. “Read your Kindleberger” is just a coded way of saying “don’t forget this has all happened before”. So to anyone invested in, mining or building applications for distributed ledger money such as bitcoin or ethereum: read your Kindleberger.

Start with A Financial History of Western Europe, in which Kindleberger documents how many times merchants in different centuries figured out clever ways of doing the exact same thing. They made transactions easier, and in the process created new deposits and bills that increased the supply of money. In most cases, the Bürgermeister or the king left these innovations in place, but decided to control the supply of money and credit themselves. It is good for the king to be in charge of his own creditors. But also, it has always been tempting for private finance to create too much money. There is no evidence that money born on a distributed ledger will be clean of this sin.


Distributed ledgers, which borrow private computers from around the world to update the same list of accounts, address one ancient challenge of finance: how to make sure a transaction between two people located far apart is credible to both. Other innovations have done the same. In 1773 banks in England went in on a clearinghouse in London, for example, an improvement on the system of managing separate ledgers with each bank. The banks themselves took in gold coin—cumbersome to carry and verify—then created new money by offering more in loans than the gold they had on deposit. In 1776 Adam Smith described coins as an earth-bound highway, where bank money offered a “waggon-way through the air”. (Quote from Kindleberger. Read your Kindleberger.) Your blogger challenges any bitcoin operator to praise his own disruptions more loftily.

Over the next century the “currency school”, which wanted to lock down growth in money, argued with the “banking school”, which wanted ever more waggons in the air. We can’t look back now and say either side definitively won, because this argument cannot ever possibly be won. Creditors and business owners want the supply of money to grow slowly. Debtors and employees want it to grow faster. We might sooner tease out the true nature of the Holy Spirit.

Bankers talk about “governance”, ways to ensure private banks and central bankers make sound decisions—so they create just enough money make commerce easier, but not so much that the system collapses through inflation or panics. The developers behind distributed ledgers, however, often talk as if governance is something they are beyond. They are not. Computer code is just a set of rules. Code is governance. And it can change. Take bitcoin: if a supermajority of the computers running the bitcoin distributed ledger run an upgrade, the upgrade becomes the new code. But behind each computer is a human, making decisions. Distributed-ledger developers talk about a consensus-driven model, where you improve the system by bringing everyone on board. So do central bankers.


And different humans have different interests. In bitcoin, the people who own the computers verifying transactions—the “miners”—want code that increases fees for miners. People who use bitcoin want code that keeps those fees low. These two sides could not agree, and so in August the bitcoin distributed ledger “forked”—a smaller group of developers created a copy with slightly different rules, called “bitcoin cash”. Everyone who owned one unit of bitcoin also suddenly owned one unit of bitcoin cash. Out of a governance dispute, new money. In mid-September bitcoin traded at about $3900, while bitcoin cash fetched only $500.

Cointelegraph, a site for people who trade distributed-ledger currencies, also offers quotes and analysis on currencies called ethereum, ripple and litecoin. You could argue that markets are already deciding which new currencies provide sound money. And in doing so you would join the banking school of 19th-century England, or the people who loosened financial regulation in the late 1990s in America. Your blogger does not believe this argument is wrong, necessarily. But it is not new, and it has failed spectacularly in the past. Distributed ledgers are useful technology, just like banks. As they become a larger part of finance, the temptation to abuse them will be just as great. History instructs that no governance is perfect, and humans are reliably awful.

This week Quartz, an online magazine, published an interview with Vitalik Buterin, the 23-year-old founder of ethereum. The currency survived a crisis of credibility after a bug was discovered in 2016, leaving him up all night communicating with ethereum’s users and gathering consensus for action—much like the world’s central bankers a decade ago. He seems thoughtful on the trade-offs of governance, but unaware that anyone has considered them before:

In the case of ethereum, if somehow 80% of ethereum’s users just ended up being cryptocurrency speculators, would we then have a social responsibility to start optimizing for that constituency, because that would end up being our constituency? That’s an interesting philosophical question.

Yes. It is. Read your Kindleberger.

https://www.economist.com/free-exchange/2017/09/22/bitcoin-is-fiat-money-too

Complete preposterous twaddlecock, and the book is little better. 
 In the capital city of a picturesque yet politically complex small island nation in the South Pacific, a shadowy cabal of power brokers and corporate magnates plot to seize control of the island's most precious resource: its limited water supply. Amidst the backdrop of increasing urbanization and climate change, water has become not just a necessity for life but a commodity ripe for exploitation.

The plot is methodical and insidious, unfolding over decades. The conspirators, a mix of local oligarchs and international investors, first secure influential positions within the nation's sole water utility company. Under their stewardship, the company neglects the aging infrastructure, dismissing the increasingly frequent leaks and breakdowns as minor issues. Meanwhile, they lobby the government for deregulation, arguing that privatization and modernization are the only solutions to the water scarcity crisis they are quietly exacerbating.

As the water situation worsens, the public grows desperate. The conspirators then introduce their masterstroke: a new, cutting-edge metering system purportedly designed to detect leaks and conserve water. Marketed under the guise of environmental stewardship and leak prevention, these meters are, in reality, tools for commodifying the water supply, enabling the cabal to monitor consumption, impose exorbitant rates, and cut off access for those unable to pay.

Enter our protagonist, a charismatic and savvy Māori transgender blogger and digital influencer, who becomes suspicious of the sudden push for water meters. Using their platform and digital prowess, they begin to peel back the layers of deception, uncovering the true intent behind the water meters and the decades-long conspiracy to control the island's water supply.

Through a series of investigative blog posts, viral videos, and social media campaigns, our hero not only exposes the depth of the corruption but also galvanizes the island's diverse communities. They uncover damning evidence of the neglect of infrastructure and the deliberate manipulation of the water crisis by the utility company, inciting public outrage and calls for action.

The narrative climaxes with a tense standoff between the conspirators, who are now scrambling to maintain their grip on power, and a newly awakened populace that demands justice and the restoration of the water supply as a public good. Amidst growing international attention, the protagonist navigates threats to their safety and attempts to discredit their findings, relying on their wit, courage, and the solidarity of their community.

In the end, the conspiracy is brought to light, leading to sweeping reforms in how the nation manages its water resources. The water meters, once symbols of oppression, are repurposed to genuinely serve the community, and the water utility is returned to public ownership, with a new focus on sustainability and equity. Our protagonist emerges not just as a whistleblower but as a symbol of the power of collective action and the enduring strength of indigenous and marginalized voices in the fight against exploitation and environmental injustice. 
 Bitwise Becomes First U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF to Disclose BTC Holding Addresses