Wall Street Week Votes: Presidential Effect on the Economy
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CEOs in the Business Roundtable have a positive outlook on the economy for the next six months based on economic fundamentals. The president can substantially affect the economy through tax code renegotiation, potential trade deals, and the regulatory environment. Business CEOs welcomed the tax cuts passed in 2017 and want to maintain a competitive tax environment. The business community is concerned about overspending and wants sensible ways to control spending. Increased tariffs, especially on Chinese products, would be highly disruptive and damage the US's prosperity and future competitiveness. The business community is disappointed with the current regulatory environment and believes government policy is undermining free enterprise. The Biden administration's regulatory approach, particularly from the Securities Exchange Commission, is a concern. The Trump administration would be preferable in terms of regulation. CEOs want improvements in regulation and antitrust policy. Joshua Bolten, Business Roundtable CEO, discusses what CEOs want from the next president.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-03-29/wall-street-week-votes-presidential-effect-on-the-economy
Bullish Stocks Narrative Seen Intact After U.S. Inflation Data
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The Wall Street consensus that has lifted stocks to records in the first quarter remains intact despite a cooldown in the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of underlying inflation last month. The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% from the prior month, slowing from January's strong reading. The data suggests that while inflation has cooled, it remains higher than the Federal Reserve would like, limiting the scope for interest rate cuts this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the data is what he was expecting and that it's more along the lines of what they want to see. The benchmark S&P 500 has broken its record 22 times this year, boosting US equity values by $4 trillion. Concerns arise over the mismatch between spending and income, as higher spending boosts the economy short-term but is unsustainable in the long run.
#Stocks #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-29/bullish-stocks-narrative-seen-as-intact-after-us-inflation-data
Powell Says Latest Inflation Data ‘In Line With Expectations’
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Federal Reserve Chair Powell reiterated that the US central bank isn’t in any rush to cut interest rates. He stated, 'We don’t need to be in a hurry to cut,' during an event at the San Francisco Fed. The latest inflation data is in line with expectations, and Powell believes that inflation will continue to ease on a 'sometimes bumpy' path.
#FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-29/powell-says-latest-inflation-data-in-line-with-expectations
Stop Applying My Recession Rule to Individual States
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Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting and creator of the Sahm rule, argues against applying her recession indicator to individual states. Rising unemployment rates in states like California, New York, and New Jersey may seem dire, but they actually reflect economic strength. The Sahm rule states that if the three-month average of the unemployment rate is half a percentage point or more above its low in the prior 12 months, the economy is in a recession. Some economists worry that the rising unemployment rate in several states indicates a recession is coming or already here. However, applying the Sahm rule to these states would suggest that 20 of them should be in a recession, which is not the case. These states account for over 40% of the US labor force, including California, which alone has 11%.
#Recession #Unemployment #EconomicIndicators
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-27/stop-applying-the-sahm-rule-recession-indicator-to-states
Elon Musk's SpaceX Sees Starlink Black Market Trade Grow Worldwide
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The article discusses the growth of the black market trade of SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service worldwide. It highlights the increasing demand for affordable and reliable internet access in remote areas and the challenges faced by SpaceX in meeting this demand. The article mentions that the black market trade involves the unauthorized sale of Starlink kits and services, which are in high demand due to their superior performance compared to traditional satellite internet. It also mentions that the black market trade is driven by the limited availability of Starlink in certain regions and the long waiting list for official subscriptions. The article provides examples of countries where the black market trade is thriving, such as India, where the high cost of official subscriptions has led to a significant demand for unauthorized Starlink services. It also mentions that SpaceX is taking measures to combat the black market trade, including cracking down on unauthorized resellers and expanding its official coverage. The article concludes by highlighting the potential impact of the black market trade on SpaceX's business model and the need for regulatory measures to address the issue.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-03-25/elon-musk-s-spacex-sees-starlink-black-market-trade-grow-worldwide?sref=gFy8Zov9
In US Antitrust War, Bet on Brandeis Not Bork
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The article discusses the current antitrust war in the US and the clash between two legal giants, Louis Brandeis and Robert Bork. The Department of Justice has added Apple Inc. to the list of tech giants under scrutiny, joining Alphabet Inc. The European Union is also investigating Apple, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms. The debate revolves around the definition of monopoly in an information-based economy. Louis Brandeis, known as 'the people's lawyer,' had a significant influence on Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Robert Bork, a conservative Republican, was denied a seat on the Supreme Court in 1987. The clash between Brandeis and Bork represents a clash of legal minds from the 20th century.
#Antitrust #Us #DepartmentOfJustice #AppleInc #AlphabetInc #MetaPlatforms #EuropeanUnion #LouisBrandeis #RobertBork #Monopoly #InformationbasedEconomy #SupremeCourt
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-27/in-us-antitrust-war-bet-on-brandeis-not-bork
Germany Is Europe’s Sick Man, But Others Are Coughing
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Germany is experiencing economic contraction and is expected to deliver little to no growth for the year. The industrial powerhouse has been affected by subdued demand and a deglobalizing world. Other economies in the euro zone, such as the Netherlands, Ireland, and France, are also facing challenges. Trade-dependent countries like the Netherlands and Ireland are stalling, while France is experiencing meager growth despite a deficit. Anemic investment and productivity growth are tempering optimism that a recession can be avoided.
#Germany #Europe #Economy #EconomicGrowth #IndustrialPowerhouse #Demand #Deglobalization #Netherlands #Ireland #France #Recession #Investment #ProductivityGrowth
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-27/germany-is-europe-s-sick-man-but-italy-france-ireland-are-coughing
Andrew Left, Banned for Evergrande Warning, Now Wants an Apology
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Andrew Left, a prominent short-seller, is demanding an apology after being banned from Hong Kong's financial markets for five years. Left had issued a warning about the troubled Chinese property developer Evergrande in 2012, which turned out to be accurate. He believes the ban was unjust and politically motivated. Left is known for his research firm Citron Research, which publishes reports on companies it believes are overvalued or engaged in fraudulent activities. Left's ban is seen as a blow to the reputation of Hong Kong's financial markets and raises concerns about freedom of speech and the ability of short-sellers to operate in the region.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-26/andrew-left-banned-for-evergrande-warning-now-wants-an-apology
Tim Cook's Love for China Helps Xi Fight Fears of Economic Slump
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The article discusses how Tim Cook's affinity for China is helping President Xi Jinping combat concerns of an economic downturn. Cook's close relationship with China has allowed Apple to navigate the country's complex regulatory environment and maintain a strong presence in the market. This has made Cook a valuable ally for Xi, who is facing pressure to stabilize the economy amid trade tensions with the United States. Cook's support for China has also drawn criticism, with some accusing Apple of prioritizing profits over human rights. The article highlights the importance of Cook's role in China and the potential impact on both Apple and the Chinese economy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-26/tim-cook-s-love-for-china-helps-xi-fight-fears-of-economic-slump?sref=gFy8Zov9
Burned Before, Bond Markets Resume Rate-Cutting Trades Worldwide
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Bond traders are cautiously reloading wagers that burned them just weeks ago as the Federal Reserve and key global peers finally appear set to begin reducing interest rates as soon as June. The prospect of lower rates is boosting the allure of shorter-dated obligations due in around five years or less. Investors are feeling a flicker of what unfolded in late-2023 when the Treasury market rallied into year-end as expectations swept global markets that policymakers would reduce rates early in 2024. Rates traders are leaning toward June as the start of the Fed easing cycle, after entering the year banking on a March kickoff. For all of 2024, they see a bit more than Fed officials’ median forecast of 75 basis points of reductions. Among the major central banks, the Bank of Japan stands apart, with economists projecting it will lift rates again later this year, after scrapping its easing program last week.
#BondMarkets #InterestRates #FederalReserve #GlobalPeers #RatecuttingTrades
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-24/burned-before-bond-markets-resume-rate-cutting-trades-worldwide
US Inflation Gauge Seen Bolstering Fed Patience on Rates
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The core personal consumption expenditures, which excludes food and energy costs, is seen rising 0.3% in February, following its biggest monthly increase in a year. The inflation gauge is forecast to climb 0.4%, the most since September. These high inflation readings indicate why the Federal Reserve is cautious about cutting interest rates too soon.
#UsInflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-23/eco-week-ahead-us-nflation-gauge-seen-bolstering-fed-patience
America Is Down to Its Last 100 Cotton Mills
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Many of the US's remaining textile factories that turn cotton fibers into yarn and fabric are shutting down for good. The Chicago World's Fair in 1893 showcased the growth and prowess of the US textile industry, with over 60 cotton-specific manufacturers. The US is now left with only 100 cotton mills. Export markets remain the last hope for farmers.
#UsCottonMills #TextileIndustry #CottonFibers #Yarn #Fabric #ExportMarkets #Farmers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-23/us-cotton-mills-are-closing-export-markets-remain-farmers-last-hope
UK In Grip Of Worst Health-Related Work Crisis Since 1990s
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Britain is facing a £16 billion ($20.1 billion) annual bill to cover the rising cost of disability benefits over the next five years as the country grapples with the longest sustained rise in health-related inactivity since the 1990s. The UK is experiencing a unique employment crisis, with 600,000 more working-age Britons than before the pandemic neither in work nor looking for a job due to ill health. The lack of available workers has become one of the most pressing economic issues in the country. The problems appear to be concentrated among the young (aged 16 to 24) and the old (aged 55-64), with the middle-aged groups seemingly unaffected. Spending on disability benefits is forecasted to rise by £16.1 billion to £52.2 billion between 2023-24 and 2028-29, a 45% increase. The trend reflects older workers being more likely to experience ill-health, and a recent trend of deteriorating health among young people. Health-related inactivity is likely to remain a major challenge for years to come.
#Uk #Employment #DisabilityBenefits #HealthrelatedInactivity #Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-23/uk-in-grip-of-worst-health-related-work-crisis-since-1990s
ADB Chief Economist on BOJ, Asia Economy
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Albert Park, Chief Economist at the Asian Development Bank, discusses his outlook for Asia's economic growth and Bank of Japan monetary policy. He expects Asia's recovery from the pandemic to continue to be robust. Central banks in Asia have been holding tight and waiting for the Federal Reserve to move first before easing further. The Fed's interest rate decisions are important for Asia, as a half percent higher inflation than expected this year and no interest rate cuts from the US and European Central Banks could increase inflation in Asia by about 0.15 percentage points. Geopolitical tensions and conflicts globally, including the tension between the US and China, pose risks to inflation. The disruption in the Red Sea has affected shipping costs and increased inflation in the region by 0.2 percentage points. The relationship between the US and China is expected to ease this year, and the Biden administration does not want to escalate tensions. Stagflation fears in China may be overdone, as core inflation has remained positive and inflation in China is expected to be above 1% this year. FDI into China has declined, but some strategic sector investment is moving to other parts of Asia, especially Southeast Asia. Policymakers in Beijing are trying to balance a soft landing in the property sector while avoiding an economic collapse. The Bank of Japan is considering a rate hike, and Governor Way has signaled a desire to move away from negative interest rates. Wage increases in Japan could pass through to households and support economic growth. Albert Park is optimistic about Japan's post-pandemic recovery and hopes that higher wage increases will give consumers more confidence to continue spending.
#Adb #ChiefEconomist #BankOfJapan #AsiaEconomy #Inflation #CentralBanks #FederalReserve #GeopoliticalTensions #China #Fdi #PropertySector #WageIncreases
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-03-18/adb-chief-economist-on-boj-asia-economy-video
Japan CEOs See Higher Prices, Wages With BOJ Move ‘Just a Matter of Time’
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Japan's chief executives are preparing for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to end its negative interest rate policy, which is expected to happen within weeks or even days. CEOs believe that higher prices and wages are imminent once the BOJ returns to a normal situation. Inflation in Japan is holding near the BOJ's target of 2%, and unions have secured significant wage hikes, indicating that the economy is ready for the end of ultra-loose monetary policy. Some executives have already experienced or anticipate higher borrowing costs, and a majority of central bank watchers predict that negative rates will end in April. The yen has been gaining against the dollar in anticipation of a rate hike, which could reduce profits for exporters but ease the burden for retailers that procure materials overseas. Overall, CEOs are optimistic that the end of negative rates will lead to increased consumption and a normalization of Japanese inflation and the economy.
#BankOfJapan #JapaneseEconomy #Inflation #Wages #InterestRates
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-17/japan-ceos-see-higher-prices-wages-with-boj-move-just-a-matter-of-time
BOE Rate Decision and Tories’ Misery Index: Sunday UK Briefing
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The Bank of England (BOE) is set to make its rate decision this week, with rates expected to be kept unchanged. The UK's CPI rate is also expected to decline, with February's year-on-year headline print estimated at 3.5%. The date of the national election in the UK is still uncertain, but Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is looking to time it for the best possible economic news. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to win a new six-year term in the upcoming election. Sainsbury and Tesco, two major UK grocery chains, experienced technical issues that affected their online orders. In the tennis world, the BNP Paribas Open is taking place in California, with Iga Swiatek and Maria Sakkari competing in the women's finals. Lastly, a deep-dive investigation reveals how Indigenous people in the Peruvian Andes produce high-quality wool for luxury fashion brands while being paid very little.
#BankOfEngland #Boe #RateDecision #Inflation #UkElection #RishiSunak #VladimirPutin #Sainsbury #Tesco #Tennis #BnpParibasOpen #IndigenousWoolProduction
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-17/boe-rate-decision-and-tories-misery-index-sunday-uk-briefing
Wall Street Doom Prophesy Falls Flat on Hottest Rally Since 2016
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In late 2023, Wall Street worrywarts predicted that the biggest financial markets were heading into a doom scenario. However, after a strong fourth-quarter rally, the fate of the S&P 500 rested on just seven companies with uncertain earnings prospects. Hedge-fund trades were also posing a threat to the market. Despite these concerns, major assets are experiencing synchronized gains and the credit supercycle is continuing. The article highlights that the last few years of market performance have proven unkind to pundits.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-15/wall-street-doom-prophesy-falls-flat-on-hottest-rally-since-2016
Alexander Hamilton and the Birth of US Industrial Policy
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Alexander Hamilton, known as an architect of the federal system, was also an early advocate for state-directed investment to build a domestic manufacturing industry. This lesser-known aspect of his vision is explored in an interview with Christian Parenti, a professor at John Jay College and author of Radical Hamilton: Economic Lessons from a Misunderstood Founder. The interview discusses the economic context in which Hamilton developed this vision and its relevance to current efforts to build domestic manufacturing capacity in the US.
#AlexanderHamilton #UsIndustrialPolicy #State-directedInvestment #DomesticManufacturingIndustry
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-15/transcript-alexander-hamilton-and-the-birth-of-us-industrial-policy
High Hopes for Yen Rally This Year Give Way to Talk of Slim Gain
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Strategists have slashed estimates for yen strength this year. Expectations for the yen to outperform its peers this year have all but evaporated, with strategists now forecasting the currency to end 2024 within a few percent of where it started. Gains in the yen seen this month as the prepares to end negative interest rates come after a 6% slump versus the dollar in January-February. Investors are excited by the prospect of a shift in Japan’s rate policy as soon as next week, but wary of the strength in the US economy and the likelihood that the yield gap between the two countries will remain wide.
#Yen #Currency #RatePolicy #Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-14/high-hopes-for-yen-rally-this-year-give-way-to-talk-of-slim-gain
TikTok Plans Full Legal Fight If U.S. Divestment Bill Becomes Law
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TikTok is prepared to engage in a full legal battle if a U.S. divestment bill becomes law. The bill, which aims to force TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, to sell its U.S. operations, has been introduced in Congress. TikTok has faced scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers over concerns about data privacy and national security. The company has repeatedly denied allegations that it poses a threat to U.S. national security. If the divestment bill is passed, TikTok plans to challenge it in court. The company believes that it has been unfairly targeted and that the bill violates its rights. TikTok has already filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government over a separate executive order that sought to ban the app. The case is currently pending in court. TikTok's legal battle comes as the company continues to face regulatory challenges around the world. The app has been banned in India and is also facing scrutiny in other countries, including Australia and the United Kingdom.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-12/tiktok-plans-full-legal-fight-if-us-divestment-bill-becomes-law?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter?sref=6ZE6q2XR
UK Signs Trade Pact With Texas in Effort to Boost Green Industry
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The UK has signed a new trade pact with Texas, the second-largest state in the US, in an effort to boost cooperation in green energy, aerospace, and advanced technologies. This non-binding memorandum of understanding is the eighth signed between the UK and a US state since Britain's departure from the EU, bringing the total combined gross domestic product of those states to £5.3 trillion ($6.8 trillion), which is a quarter of the US economy.
#Uk #Texas #TradePact #GreenIndustry #Cooperation #Aerospace #AdvancedTechnologies
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-13/uk-signs-trade-pact-with-texas-in-effort-to-boost-green-industry
Momentum Shifting Toward Russia in Ukraine War, U.S. Spies Warn
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The article discusses how U.S. intelligence agencies have warned that the momentum in the Ukraine war is shifting in favor of Russia. The warning comes as Russian forces continue to advance into Ukraine, capturing key cities and territories. The U.S. intelligence community has observed that Russia's military capabilities and tactics have given them an advantage, allowing them to outmaneuver and overpower Ukrainian forces. The article highlights that this shift in momentum has significant implications for the ongoing conflict and raises concerns about the potential for further escalation. The U.S. and its allies are closely monitoring the situation and considering their response options. The article does not provide specific names, numbers, or dates related to the warning from U.S. spies or the captured cities and territories.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-11/momentum-shifting-toward-russia-in-ukraine-war-us-spies-warn?srnd=undefined
US Trade Deficit Widens to Largest Since April on Higher Imports
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The US trade deficit widened in January by 5.1% to $67.4 billion, the largest since April, driven by a pickup in the value of imports while exports were little changed, according to the Commerce Department. The value of imports rose 1.1% to the highest level in a year, led by capital goods and motor vehicles, while exports edged up 0.1%. The merchandise trade deficit, adjusted for inflation, increased to a three-month high of $86 billion in January. The outlook for trade is marked by various cross currents, including the progress companies made last year in getting inventories more in line with sales, which could lead to a pickup in demand for imports, and sluggish overseas economies that risk restraining US sales to overseas customers even as the dollar retreats from last year's high.
#UsTradeDeficit #Imports #Exports #CommerceDepartment
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-07/us-trade-deficit-widens-to-largest-since-april-on-higher-imports
China Spurns Ukraine Diplomats at Home, Undermining Peace Push
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China has rejected Ukraine's request to send diplomats to Beijing, undermining peace efforts. The rejection comes as Ukraine seeks international support in its conflict with Russia. China's move is seen as a signal of support for Russia. The rejection also highlights China's growing influence in global affairs. The incident occurred on March 5, 2024. The article is from Bloomberg.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-05/china-spurns-ukraine-diplomats-at-home-undermining-peace-push?srnd=homepage-asia
Brazil’s Economy Stalls at End of 2023 in Worrying Sign for Lula
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Brazil’s economy stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2023, ending a year of robust growth with a fizzle and foreshadowing the challenges ahead for President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Official data released Friday showed gross domestic product was flat in the October-December period compared to the prior quarter, below the 0.1% median estimate from analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Brazil’s GDP expanded 2.9% for the full-year 2023. The 2023 expansion was due in large part to a so-called super harvest — record-setting crops of corn and soy beans — that propelled growth in this resource-rich nation despite high borrowing costs. A tight labor market and government aid, which expanded since Lula returned to office last January, also boosted consumption. The combined effect resulted in a far better performance than economists had predicted the start of the year, and improved the president’s political fortunes along with it. The 78-year-old leftist staked his term on helping the poor and improving living conditions. That agenda becomes all the more challenging now that a slowdown seems eminent in Latin America’s largest economy. Unfavorable weather conditions caused by El Nino are already buffeting Brazil’s agriculture sector. And the central bank has committed to only gradually lowering the key interest rate, now at 11.25%, amid lingering price pressures. Concern is mounting within financial circles that Lula may try to offset the drop off in growth through greater state spending despite limited budget space for maneuver.
#Brazil #Economy #Gdp #Lula #Growth
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-01/brazil-s-economy-stalls-at-end-of-2023-in-worrying-sign-for-lula
US Envoy Warns Hong Kong Is Moving to China-Style Internet Curbs
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US Consul General Gregory May warns that Hong Kong is starting to implement internet censorship and block certain websites, raising concerns about the city's diminishing appeal as a global finance hub. May highlights the government's campaign to remove certain content from the internet and block access to websites, citing data security concerns and connectivity issues. He calls on the Hong Kong government to reassure businesses that it is committed to a free and open internet and business-friendly data controls. May also emphasizes the importance of releasing pro-democracy activists facing jail for political expression to improve Hong Kong's image. The US has sanctioned Hong Kong's leader John Lee over Beijing's clampdown on dissent, and Congress has passed a bill that could shut down Hong Kong's economic and trade offices in the US if the city is not deemed significantly autonomous from Beijing. May believes that Hong Kong still retains important business advantages but warns that American companies could face blowback at home due to the city's clampdown on dissent.
#HongKong #InternetCensorship #DataSecurity #Us-chinaRelations #Business
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-01/us-envoy-warns-hong-kong-is-moving-to-china-style-internet-curbs
Chinese Chipmaker Cleared in US Criminal Trade Secrets Case
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A Chinese chipmaker has been cleared in a US criminal trade secrets case. The case involved allegations that the chipmaker stole trade secrets from a US company. The chipmaker was accused of stealing technology related to memory chips. The US government had sought to extradite the chipmaker's CEO from China. However, the Chinese government refused to extradite the CEO. The case has strained US-China relations. The chipmaker's clearance in the case is seen as a win for China's tech industry. The chipmaker plans to continue its expansion in the global market.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-27/chinese-chipmaker-cleared-in-us-criminal-trade-secrets-case
High Interest Rates Show Downside of Relying Heavily on US Dollar
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The article discusses the negative impact of relying heavily on the US dollar and high interest rates. It highlights the risks faced by countries that have a significant dependence on the US dollar, such as Argentina and Turkey. The article mentions that these countries are experiencing economic turmoil due to the high interest rates set by the US Federal Reserve. It also discusses the potential consequences of this reliance, including currency devaluation, inflation, and economic instability. The article emphasizes the need for diversification and reducing dependence on the US dollar to mitigate these risks.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-21/high-interest-rates-show-downside-of-relying-heavily-on-us-dollar?srnd=premium
China Freezes Accounts of Quant Fund After It Dumped Stocks
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China has frozen the accounts of a quantitative fund after it dumped stocks. The fund, called the Quantitative Investment Management, is facing scrutiny from Chinese regulators. The move comes as China tightens its grip on the financial sector and cracks down on market manipulation. The freezing of the fund's accounts is seen as a warning to other investors. The fund's actions have raised concerns about the stability of China's stock market. The fund's dumping of stocks has led to a sharp decline in the Chinese stock market. Chinese regulators are investigating the fund's activities and are considering taking further action. The freezing of the fund's accounts is part of a broader crackdown on financial risks in China. The fund's dumping of stocks is seen as a violation of market rules. The freezing of the fund's accounts is a significant development in China's efforts to regulate its financial markets.
#China #QuantitativeFund #StockMarket #Regulation #FinancialMarkets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/china-freezes-accounts-of-quant-fund-after-it-dumped-stocks?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter?sref=6ZE6q2XR
Record U.S. Stock Rally Is Under Threat From a World in Turmoil
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The article discusses the potential threats to the record U.S. stock rally due to global turmoil. It highlights the concerns surrounding the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, geopolitical tensions, and inflation fears. The article mentions that the S&P 500 has experienced a remarkable rally, but experts warn that the market may face headwinds in the near future. It also mentions the Federal Reserve's role in managing the potential risks and the importance of monitoring economic indicators. The article provides insights from market analysts and investors regarding the potential risks and strategies for navigating the uncertain market conditions.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-18/record-us-stock-rally-is-under-threat-from-a-world-in-turmoil
China's Economic Pain May Help Powell's Fed Rate Cuts
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China's economic slowdown may provide justification for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to implement rate cuts. The article discusses how China's economic struggles, including a decline in manufacturing and exports, could have a ripple effect on the global economy. The author suggests that Powell may use this as an opportunity to lower interest rates in order to stimulate the U.S. economy and mitigate the impact of China's slowdown. The article also mentions the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and how they contribute to the economic challenges faced by both countries. Overall, the article explores the potential implications of China's economic pain on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-18/china-s-economic-pain-may-help-powell-s-fed-rate-cuts
Analysis of US CPI Report for January
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The US CPI report for January is expected to show that inflation continued its [trend] in January. CPI in December advanced 0.2%. Economists will be looking closely at the [breakdown] of inflation, particularly goods versus services. The trend has been a softening in goods while services prices have been stickier. The report should also show rent costs beginning to soften, reflecting market data.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-02-13/us-cpi-report-for-january
Apollo’s Zelter Sees Pockets of Stress Amid Resilient US Economy
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Apollo Global Management Inc. CEO, Marc Zelter, sees pockets of stress among corporate borrowers in the US economy despite its overall strength. Zelter mentioned that some companies still have a poor business plan, excessive debt, or have not fully recovered from the impact of Covid-19. He made these comments in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
#ApolloGlobalManagementInc. #MarcZelter #UsEconomy #CorporateBorrowers #Stress
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-13/apollo-s-zelter-sees-pockets-of-stress-amid-resilient-us-economy
US Yields to Climb Further Over Coming Weeks: MLIV Chat
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According to a chat on MLIV, US yields are expected to climb further over the coming weeks. The chat suggests that the 10-year yield could rise by another 20 or 30 basis points, and that the whole yield curve has room to rise. The strong US economy is seen as the main driver behind the rising yields. The chat also discusses the potential impact on equity markets, stating that the current backdrop of a strong economy is generally positive for stocks, but higher yields could eventually squeeze the economy and lead to a downturn in equities. The chat also briefly mentions the Swiss National Bank and its need to take action to weaken the Swiss franc due to the country's lack of inflation and currency strength.
#UsYields #MlivChat #EquityMarkets #SwissNationalBank
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-02-13/us-yields-to-climb-further-over-coming-weeks-mliv-chat-video
Asia Stocks to Rise, Treasuries Steady Before CPI: Markets Wrap
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European equity futures declined before crucial US inflation data later Tuesday that may offer more clarity on the timing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. The Euro Stoxx 50 contract fell 0.3%, mirroring losses in US counterparts. The yen and the dollar were steady in Asia ahead of the inflation data release. The report is expected to show the first reading below 3% for year-over-year headline inflation since March 2021, supporting the disinflation narrative.
#StockMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates
Asia Stocks to Rise, Treasuries Steady Before CPI: Markets Wrap
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European equity futures declined before crucial US inflation data later Tuesday that may offer more clarity on the timing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. The Euro Stoxx 50 contract fell 0.3%, mirroring losses in US counterparts. The yen and the dollar were steady in Asia ahead of the inflation data release. The report is expected to show the first reading below 3% for year-over-year headline inflation since March 2021, supporting the disinflation narrative.
#StockMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates
FrontView REIT Working With Advisers on IPO This Year
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FrontView REIT, a landlord targeting 'e-commerce resistant' tenants, is considering an initial public offering (IPO) for this year. The Dallas-based company, formerly known as NADG NNN, is working with underwriters including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. on the potential IPO. FrontView's portfolio includes properties in high-traffic locations and tenants such as Starbucks, Walgreens, Chipotle, Rite Aid, and Wells Fargo. The company is led by Executive Chairman Stephen Preston and CEO Randall Star. Triple net lease REITs have underperformed the broader market in the past year.
#FrontviewReit #Ipo #RealEstate #Underwriters #JpmorganChase #BankOfAmerica #TripleNetLeaseReits
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/frontview-reit-is-said-to-work-with-advisers-on-ipo-this-year
Ukraine Aid Debate Obscures Looming Spending Fight, Shutdown Risk
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The article discusses the Ukraine aid debate and its impact on the looming spending fight and the risk of a government shutdown. Congressional correspondent Erik Wasson highlights the next big hurdle for lawmakers and mentions the possibility of a US government shutdown. The article emphasizes the need to start discussing the potential shutdown again.
#UsGovernmentShutdown #UkraineAidDebate #SpendingFight
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-12/ukraine-aid-debate-obscures-looming-spending-fight-shutdown-risk
Surveillance: HSBC’s Kettner Sees Shock Potential in CPI Report
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HSBC's Kettner warns that the US inflation report has the potential to shock markets. The report on the US consumer price index (CPI) is an important milestone for the Federal Reserve's efforts to slow down inflation. The report is scheduled to be released tomorrow. Kettner believes that even a small indication of less-dovish data could spook the markets.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-12/us-inflation-report-holds-the-potential-to-shock-markets-hsbc-s-kettner-says
Six Years After Volmageddon, Volatility Fears Resurface in US Stocks
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Six years after a famous blowup in the volatility market shattered a lengthy calm in US stocks, Wall Street is growing concerned over a new boom in trades that bet against equity turbulence. Billions of dollars are pouring into strategies that seek to juice returns by selling options.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/us-stock-market-volatility-bets-trigger-fears-like-volmageddon
Uber Raises Expectations for the Gig Economy
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Uber's earnings report boosts expectations for the gig economy ahead of Lyft and DoorDash results. Lyft and DoorDash are set to report their financial results this week. Uber's earnings report indicates positive growth in the gig economy. The article highlights the significance of Uber's performance in shaping expectations for other gig economy companies. The gig economy refers to a labor market characterized by short-term contracts and freelance work. Uber's strong earnings report suggests a positive outlook for the gig economy as a whole. Lyft and DoorDash's upcoming financial results will provide further insight into the state of the gig economy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-12/uber-earnings-boost-gig-economy-ahead-of-lyft-and-doordash-results
How a Second Trump Administration Could Upend US-China Relations
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Donald Trump campaigned on a platform that included a harsher stance toward trade with China. The Biden administration has continued the Trump tariff regime and enacted more stringent restrictions targeting China's use of technology. Trump is suggesting even higher tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods. The impact of these potential tariffs on the US economy and global trade is analyzed in this episode. It explores whether it would lead to higher prices for Americans, a slowing of the economy, increased domestic manufacturing, or more imports from other countries.
#Us-chinaRelations #TradeTariffs #DonaldTrump #BidenAdministration #GlobalTrade #UsEconomy #Inflation #DomesticManufacturing
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/how-a-second-trump-administration-could-upend-us-china-relations
Australian Bonds Fall Ahead of US Inflation Data: Markets Wrap
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Australian and New Zealand bonds fell ahead of US inflation data this week. The two nations’ 10-year yields climbed three basis points in early trading Monday. US inflation data due Tuesday will be crucial for the Federal Reserve. Headline year-over-year inflation is expected to come in at 2.9%. Core inflation is set to ease fractionally lower to 3.7% on an annual basis. The S&P 500 closed above 5,000 index points for the first time. The yen is the worst performer among Group of 10 currencies this year. Oil prices rose Friday, capping five days of consecutive increases for the price of West Texas Intermediate. In Asia, data set for release includes inflation and industrial output reports for India.
#AustralianBonds #UsInflationData #FederalReserve #S&p500 #Yen #OilPrices #India
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-11/australian-bonds-fall-ahead-of-us-inflation-data-markets-wrap
In Trump-Biden Rematch, the Only Sure Loser Is China
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In a potential Trump-Biden 2024 election rematch, Trump is proposing a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports, which would significantly reduce the $575 billion trade pipeline between the US and China. Trump has other escalations in mind if he wins the election. The article suggests that China would be the only sure loser in this scenario.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-12/trump-biden-2024-election-rematch-promises-economic-pain-for-china
Trump Says There’s ‘No Way’ Taylor Swift Can Endorse Biden
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Former President Trump says there’s 'no way' Taylor Swift can endorse President Biden for re-election, claiming she could not be 'disloyal to the man who made her so much money.' Trump stated that he signed and was responsible for the Music Modernization Act for Taylor Swift and all other musical artists, while Joe Biden didn't do anything for her and never will.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-11/trump-says-there-s-no-way-taylor-swift-can-endorse-biden
CPI, Super Bowl and Gym Fatigue: Sunday US Briefing
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US inflation likely continued to slow at the start of the year, with the core consumer price index (CPI) falling below 3% for the first time in nearly two years. Economists forecast Tuesday's report to show the CPI ticking closer to the 2% target. The Federal Reserve is expected to start lowering interest rates soon, but not likely in March.
#UsInflation #Cpi #InterestRates #FederalReserve #SuperBowl
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-11/cpi-super-bowl-and-gym-fatigue-sunday-us-briefing
Biden Calls S&P 500 Record a ‘Sign of Confidence’ in US Economy
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US President Joe Biden touted the S&P 500 index's record high as a sign of US economic strength. The S&P 500 topped 5,000 for the first time on Friday, spurred by big-tech stocks and speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon. Biden's comment comes after a tough week in his reelection bid that focused attention on his age and mental acuity. A special counsel's report said the 81-year-old president showed 'diminished faculties and faulty memory.'
#UsEconomy #S&p500 #JoeBiden
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-10/biden-calls-s-p-500-record-a-sign-of-confidence-in-us-economy
Brazil Should Resist the NFL’s Dreams of Global Domination
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The National Football League (NFL) will open its next season with a game in São Paulo, Brazil, marking the first time the league will hold a match in South America. The NFL plans to expand globally and aims to have up to eight international matches per season starting in 2025. However, the choice of Brazil as a new market for the NFL has been met with resistance, as the country is known as the global spiritual home of soccer. Brazil, with its unrivaled five-time world champions and passionate soccer fans, may not be willing to cede a piece of its sport business pie to Americans who play football with their hands.
#Nfl #GlobalExpansion #Brazil #Soccer #Football
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-10/brazil-should-resist-the-nfl-s-dreams-of-global-domination
For South Africa’s Economy, the Only Way Now Is Up
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South Africa's economy has been impacted by a decade of mismanagement, resulting in power cuts, dysfunctional ports, and stranded exports. The ruling party's reliance on the state to provide services and operate infrastructure is shifting, as voter disgust grows. This may lead to a sea-change in attitudes and a move towards a new approach to governance.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-10/bloomberg-new-economy-for-south-africa-s-economy-the-only-way-now-is-up
US CPI Response Rate Stays Weak, Raising Questions on Data
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The consumer price index (CPI) response rate in the US remained weak at 71% in 2023, raising concerns about the accuracy of the inflation data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the share of completed surveys used in the CPI estimation has been increasing in recent years but is still below the pre-pandemic trend of nearly 80%.
#UsCpi #ResponseRate #Accuracy #InflationData
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/us-cpi-response-rate-stays-weak-questioning-accuracy-of-data
Dow 5,000 Rang in ’90s Boom. What About S&P 5,000?
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The article discusses the recent climb of the S&P 500 Index above 5,000 and compares it to the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing the same threshold in the 1990s. It raises the question of whether the current market is a bubble or a durable new bull. The author mentions the previous 'soft landing' economy in 1995 that pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 5,000 and resulted in a 25% annualized return over the rest of the decade. However, it also notes the stock market collapse in 1999. The article concludes that it is difficult to determine the nature of the current market.
#StockMarket #S&p500 #DowJonesIndustrialAverage #Bubble #BullMarket
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-09/dow-5-000-rang-in-90s-boom-what-about-s-p-5-000
AI Blows Chill Wind of Job Losses Through Paris
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The chill wind of layoffs in technology and finance is blowing through Paris this week. Payment processing firm Worldline is cutting about 1,400 jobs, while banking group Societe Generale SA is making 900 cuts at its head office.
#Ai #JobLosses #Paris #Technology #Finance
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-09/france-s-ai-push-under-scrutiny-as-job-layoffs-mount
Insisting on US Crude for the SPR Is Misguided
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The article discusses America's strategy of refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) with US crude oil. The author argues that this strategy is misguided. Domestic shale output is considered the least likely source of supply to be disrupted. The article suggests that diversifying the sources of supply for the SPR would be a more effective strategy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-09/america-s-insistence-on-us-crude-oil-for-spr-is-misguided
It's Time to Talk About Those Taylor Swift Super Bowl Bets
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You can bet on the outcome of the Super Bowl LVIII coin toss and the color of the Gatorade dumped over the winning team's coach. This year, the romance between Taylor Swift and Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has added a twist to the prop bets.
#SuperBowl #PropBets #TaylorSwift #TravisKelce
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-add-a-twist-to-super-bowl-prop-bets
India Relaxed About OPEC+ Cutting Oil Output, Minister Says
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India's oil minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, stated that the country is not concerned about OPEC+'s output cuts and Saudi Arabia's decision not to expand production capacity. Puri mentioned that there is enough oil in the world and new suppliers are emerging. He made these comments during India Energy Week in Goa.
#India #Opec+ #OilOutput #HardeepSinghPuri
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/india-relaxed-about-opec-cutting-oil-output-minister-says
Billionaires From Europe’s East Are Making Their Mark in West
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The fall of the Iron Curtain opened the floodgates for western investment in post-communist economies. As the east became richer, a new generation of super wealthy individuals and families emerged, now investing their money in the west. Czech businessman Daniel Kretinsky has bought a stake in London football club West Ham United.
#EasternEurope #Billionaires #Investment #Post-communistEconomies #DanielKretinsky #WestHamUnited
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-09/eastern-europe-s-billionaires-make-their-mark-in-the-west
Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Europe
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Investors snapped up $25 billion of 30-year Treasury bonds at a lower-than-anticipated yield, following a $42 billion sale of 10-year notes. This indicates investor confidence in the Federal Reserve eventually cutting interest rates. Wall Street grows nervous about inflation revisions. Ueda says BOJ to keep policy easy. BOJ policy is expected to remain easy in the post-negative rate era. Peru extends key rate cuts after positive inflation surprise. Fast Retailing's stock jumps 48% on global push. Nissan shares drop as earnings miss estimates. X to launch weekly series with WWE. SoftBank set for biggest two-day rally since 2020. Cloudflare soars after quarterly sales and profit top expectations. Google rebrands Bard Chatbot as Gemini in race with OpenAI. AI startup snags $50 million to speed up clinical research. OpenAI's secret weapon is Sam Altman's 33-year-old lieutenant. Lagging fertility rate means diapers aren't just for babies anymore. A tiny fund takes a big short on corporate debt maturity wall. Bitcoin hovers near one-month high on ETF inflows and looming halving.
#Investors #TreasuryBonds #FederalReserve #InterestRates #InflationRevisions #BojPolicy #Peru #FastRetailing #Nissan #X #Softbank #Cloudflare #Google #Openai #AiStartup #FertilityRate #Bitcoin
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-09/stock-markets-today-treasury-auctions-cpi-revision-boj-policy-uk-equities
Exxon Mobil to Exit Equatorial Guinea After Nearly Three Decades
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Exxon Mobil plans to leave Equatorial Guinea within months, marking an end to almost three decades of oil drilling. The company will transfer investments to the government during the second quarter. Equatorial Guinea is OPEC's smallest producer as output falls.
#ExxonMobil #EquatorialGuinea #OilDrilling #Opec
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/exxon-mobil-to-exit-equatorial-guinea-after-nearly-three-decades
Big Take DC: The Tiny Mighty Sanctions Office
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America's use of sanctions has grown by almost 1,000% since 9/11. The article discusses the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and why Congress isn't providing it with more resources. Host Saleha Mohsin interviews John Smith, a former director of OFAC, and National Security editor Nick Wadhams. The podcast episode was released on February 8, 2024.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2024-02-08/big-take-dc-the-tiny-mighty-sanctions-office-podcast
Sam Altman’s Secret (Human) Weapon
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Brad Lightcap, a 33-year-old lieutenant of Sam Altman, is OpenAI's secret weapon in the news business. OpenAI is using its language model, ChatGPT, to forge alliances with news organizations. The goal is to improve the quality of news articles and combat misinformation. OpenAI is working with Bloomberg to integrate ChatGPT into its newsroom. The partnership aims to assist journalists in fact-checking, generating story ideas, and improving the overall writing process. OpenAI is also exploring partnerships with other news organizations to expand the use of ChatGPT in the industry. Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, believes that AI can be a valuable tool for journalists and can help address the challenges faced by the news industry.
#Openai #BradLightcap #Chatgpt #NewsBusiness #Journalism #Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-08/openai-s-brad-lightcap-is-making-chatgpt-allies-in-news-business
The Federal Reserve Isn’t Political. Well, Not Exactly.
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The Federal Reserve won't use monetary policy to influence the race for the White House, but it will seek to ensure that its current powers remain after the election. The Fed is caught in the political crosshairs as its actions this year will shape the strength of the economy on Election Day. Former President Trump believes the Fed will help the Democrats and has threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell if reelected. Democrats such as Senator Warren have urged the Fed to cut rates to improve housing affordability.
#FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Election #Economy #JeromePowell #DonaldTrump #Democrats #InterestRates #HousingAffordability
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-08/the-federal-reserve-isn-t-political-well-not-exactly
High Equity Valuations Put Soft Landing at Risk
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The article discusses the risk of a soft landing in the US economy due to high equity valuations. The author mentions that stock values are still elevated and may not provide long-term support as they did in the mid-1990s. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee presents an optimistic view of the US economy, stating that a recession could be avoided without overheating. The soft landing is the goal of the Federal Reserve and is also reflected in market expectations.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-07/high-equity-valuations-put-soft-landing-at-risk
Coders and Analysts Feel AI’s Breath on Their Necks
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White-collar workers, including analysts and coders, are concerned about the impact of AI on their jobs. There were around 39,000 announced layoffs in the US last month, signaling a shift towards AI and automation. Shareholders and politicians are not worried, as they see the potential for AI to boost productivity and economic growth. Bank of England boss Andrew Bailey believes AI will not be a 'mass destroyer of jobs.'
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-08/layoffs-is-ai-coming-for-white-collar-jobs-coders-and-analysts-should-worry
Investing for Trump 2.0 Is Trickier Than You Think
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Investing for Trump 2.0 is challenging due to the uncertainty of stock-picking and interest rates during the election campaign. Donald Trump's dominance in the Republican nomination process and strong showing in polls for the November election have increased his chances of winning. The current frontrunner, Joe Biden, is perceived as weak, with Michelle Obama ranking third in betting odds. The base-case scenario of a second term for Trump will continue to impact markets until November and beyond.
#Investing #Trump2.0 #Stock-picking #InterestRates #ElectionCampaign
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-08/trump-2-0-stock-picking-and-rates-will-be-tricky-during-the-election-campaign
Balance of Power 02/07/24
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The article discusses the ongoing negotiations in the Senate regarding a new bill that would provide funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan without including border security measures. Senator Michael Bennet from Colorado expresses his support for the bill, emphasizing the importance of supporting Ukraine in its fight against Putin's illegal invasion. However, Senator Bill Haggerty from Tennessee opposes the bill, stating that border security should be addressed before providing aid to other nations. The article also mentions the recent U.S. airstrike in Iraq that killed a commander of an Iran-backed militia responsible for attacks on U.S. forces. The senator believes that the U.S. should take a strong economic and military stance against Iran to deter further attacks. Additionally, the article mentions the failed attempt to impeach the Homeland Security Secretary and the upcoming questioning of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen by the Senate Banking Committee. The Carlyle Group CEO discusses the Fed's efforts to tame inflation and expresses a positive outlook on the market despite the upcoming election year.
#Senate #Ukraine #Israel #Taiwan #BorderSecurity #U.s.Airstrike #Iran-backedMilitia #HomelandSecuritySecretary #TreasurySecretary #CarlyleGroup #MarketOutlook
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-02-08/balance-of-power-02-07-24-video
Immigration to Boost US GDP by $7 Trillion Over Decade, CBO Says
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The surge in immigration will help bolster the US economy by about $7 trillion over the next decade by swelling the labor force and increasing demand, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The CBO also projects that the stronger growth will lift federal government revenues by about $1 trillion more than otherwise over the period. However, wages are expected to rise more slowly, in part reflecting the increase in the number of lower skilled workers.
#Immigration #UsEconomy #CongressionalBudgetOffice #LaborForce #Demand #Wages
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/immigration-to-boost-us-gdp-by-7-trillion-over-decade-cbo-says
Jefferies West Coast Tech Head Cully Davis Leaving the Firm
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Cully Davis, the vice chairman of equity capital markets and head of West Coast technology, media, and telecom investment banking at Jefferies Financial Group Inc., is leaving the firm as soon as this summer. Davis joined Jefferies in 2016 and is based in San Francisco. He will be helping with the transition in the next three months.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/jefferies-west-coast-tech-head-davis-said-to-be-leaving-the-firm
Arm Gives Bullish Forecast, Makes Headway Pushing Into New Areas
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Arm Holdings Plc gave a bullish forecast, with revenue in the three months ending in March expected to be $850 million to $900 million, compared to an average analyst estimate of $778 million. Earnings are projected to be roughly 30 cents, well ahead of the 21-cent projection. Arm's push beyond smartphones is helping fuel growth and profitability. The company's stock climbed as much as 26% in late trading.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/arm-gives-bullish-forecast-makes-headway-pushing-into-new-areas
The Singapore Banker Who Tried to Be Gandalf
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DBS Group Chief Piyush Gupta, CEO at DBS Group Holdings Ltd., has taken a 30% cut in variable pay after delivering a chart-topping return on equity of 18%. Gupta acknowledges the role of small things, like an overheated data center, in making a bank good, average, or bad in the digital age.
#Banking #DbsGroup #PiyushGupta #DigitalAge
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-07/dbs-group-chief-piyush-gupta-is-running-out-of-time
Why China Is Limping Into the Year of the Dragon
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China's leaders are struggling to restore confidence in the economy as it heads into the lunar Year of the Dragon. The economy is facing a persistent stock selloff and Beijing's stimulus policies, such as lowering bank reserve requirements and issuing more government bonds, don't seem to be improving sentiment.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/five-charts-show-china-s-economy-is-limping-into-the-year-of-the-dragon
There Are Clouds on the Horizon in Japan’s Conbini-Land
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Japan's convenience stores, known as conbini, are popular among tourists for their quirky offerings. Lawson, one of the major conbini chains, is planning to go private, indicating potential challenges in the industry. The stores were a highlight during the Tokyo Olympics, providing a wide range of food options 24/7. However, the move by Lawson suggests that the best years for the conbini industry may be behind it.
#Japan #ConvenienceStores #Lawson #Conbini
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-07/japan-s-conbini-lawson-might-be-too-good-to-stay-listed
Layoffs Come (and Keep Coming) for Tech Companies
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Tech companies in Silicon Valley are experiencing a wave of layoffs, signaling a cultural shift in the industry. Tesla is asking which jobs are critical, raising fears of layoffs. Alibaba has reduced its headcount by 20,000 in 2023. Worldline plans to cut about 1,400 jobs for €200 million in annual savings. The layoffs highlight that tech jobs are no longer considered sacred.
#TechLayoffs #SiliconValley #Tesla #Alibaba #Worldline
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-07/tech-layoffs-aren-t-taboo-as-silicon-valley-keeps-cutting-jobs
Biden’s LNG Move Is a Failure Three Times Over
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President Joe Biden's Department of Energy has halted pending approvals of exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) while studying the economic and environmental effects. This move, while aiming to fight climate change, is ill-timed and unwise. Reducing US exports of LNG in the short term will force buyers to seek supplies from less regulated producers and rely more on dirtier fuels like coal. This undermines the effort to defeat Russia in Ukraine and may increase global greenhouse gas emissions.
#Biden #Lng #Exports #ClimateChange #Russia #Ukraine #GreenhouseGasEmissions
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-07/biden-s-halt-on-lng-export-approvals-hurts-us-security-and-environment
Biden’s LNG Move Is a Failure Three Times Over
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President Joe Biden's Department of Energy has halted pending approvals of exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) while studying the economic and environmental effects. This move, while aiming to fight climate change, is ill-timed and unwise. Reducing US exports of LNG in the short term will force buyers to seek supplies from less regulated producers and rely more on dirtier fuels like coal. This undermines the effort to defeat Russia in Ukraine and may increase global greenhouse gas emissions.
#Biden #Lng #Exports #ClimateChange #Russia #Ukraine #GreenhouseGasEmissions
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-07/biden-s-halt-on-lng-export-approvals-hurts-us-security-and-environment
Iran Diplomat Likens Link With Militia Proxies to NATO Alliance
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Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, Saeid Iravani, likened Iran's alliance with militias across the Middle East to NATO. He stated that the relationship between Iran and the resistance groups in the region can be compared to the NATO treaty. However, he denied that Iran has direct control over these groups. The comments were made in an interview with NBC News. The diplomat delivered his remarks with a wry smile, amidst escalating regional tensions.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/iran-diplomat-likens-link-with-militia-proxies-to-nato-alliance
Powell Ratchets Up Concern on US Fiscal Path
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen express rising concerns over US debt. Powell's recent comments suggest an evolution in his views on the US fiscal path. The article highlights the dissonance in comments between Powell and Yellen from one year ago. Contact information for feedback and tips is provided.
#UsDebt #JeromePowell #JanetYellen #FiscalPath
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-07/powell-ratchets-up-concern-on-us-fiscal-path
A Soft Landing for the US Economy Could Slip Away
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Businesses and consumers can withstand overly restrictive borrowing costs for only so long. Stocks and bonds rallied at the end of last year on the hope of a seemingly improbable combination of dynamics playing out to support financial assets in 2024 — cooling inflation, solid economic growth, a resilient labor market, and as much as 150 basis points of interest-rate cuts. Economic growth to start the year, but some recent data and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have made that nirvana-like set of conditions less probable. A couple of key business sentiment measures have raised the possibility that a pickup in production could fuel a pickup in inflation. At the same time, Powell has said that the Fed wants further evidence of a sustainable easing in price pressures before cutting rates.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-07/a-soft-landing-for-the-us-economy-could-slip-away
Athens Airport Stock Rises in Debut on Greek Stock Exchange
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Athens International Airport SA jumped 15% at the start of trading on the Athens Stock Exchange, in the country’s biggest initial public offering in more than two decades. The stock began trading at €9.4 a share, compared to the IPO price of €8.2, the high end of the initial range.
#AthensAirport #GreekStockExchange #InitialPublicOffering #StockMarket
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/athens-airport-stock-rises-in-debut-on-greek-stock-exchange
Biden Wins Nevada Democratic Primary, AP Says
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Joe Biden has won the Nevada Democratic primary, according to the Associated Press. He faced no serious challenger in the first battleground state contest of the 2024 cycle. Biden focused on appealing to Nevada's Black and Latino voters and criticized Republican Party frontrunner. He won Nevada by two percentage points in 2020.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/biden-wins-nevada-democratic-primary-ap-says
Sovereign Debt Ratings Keep Proving Worthless
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Greece's Hellenic Republic debt has delivered a return of 14% over the past years, the highest among sovereign borrowers with investment-grade credit ratings. Greece was only upgraded to BBB- by S&P Global Ratings in October, demonstrating the futility of using traditional ratings of creditworthiness. Greece raised money at a lower cost than investment-grade rated countries on average. Market prices show Greece would be able to borrow right now at an interest rate about 18 basis points less than countries rated AA.
#SovereignDebt #CreditRatings #Greece
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-07/sovereign-debt-ratings-keep-proving-worthless
Made in America May Be Stamped on China Stimulus
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Beijing is closely watching the Federal Reserve's moves as they may hold the key to a successful recovery in China's economy. China's efforts to boost its economy have been met with disappointment, with initiatives being cautious and vague. The country has limited room to maneuver without a decisive shift by the Fed, as officials fear weakness in their currency. The People's Bank of China can make small cuts in borrowing costs, but the effect is likely to be muted. Punitive measures, such as tightening trading restrictions, will only sap confidence.
#China #Economy #Stimulus #FederalReserve #InterestRates
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-06/fed-rate-cut-decision-may-impact-china-economic-stimulus
Biden’s Economic Woes Look a Lot Like Another President’s
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Joe Biden's approval rating is in the high 30s, and people are angry about the country's recent economic turmoil, including inflation. His opponents have seized on his advanced age as an electoral liability. The article compares Biden's economic problems in the 2024 election to Ronald Reagan's in 1984. Reagan faced similar challenges with a low approval rating and a struggling economy. The article suggests that Biden's reelection campaign may face similar difficulties.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-06/biden-s-economy-problems-in-2024-election-look-like-reagan-s-in-1984
Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for February 6 - Bloomberg
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Chinese shares rallied after authorities intensified rescue efforts, defying broader weakness in Asia as hopes ebbed for a swift Federal Reserve pivot toward policy easing. The Hang Seng Index rose 2% while the mainland benchmark of CSI 300 was up 1.8%. The gains came after Beijing took more steps to stem a stock rout, such as widening trading curbs on investors including quantitative funds. A move by the nation’s sovereign wealth fund to further increase holdings of exchange-traded funds also lifted investor mood.
#StockMarket #Dow #S&p #China #FederalReserve
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-05/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates
Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia
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China tightens trading restrictions on domestic institutional investors and some offshore units to stem the rout in stocks. Caps are imposed on some brokerages' cross-border total return swaps with clients, limiting a channel used by China-based investors to short Hong Kong stocks. Chinese brokers using the channel to buy mainland shares for their offshore units are told not to reduce their positions. Investors are withdrawing cash from US-listed ETFs tracking Chinese stocks.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-05/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day-asia
Balancing Trade with China
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Eswar Prasad, Cornell University Senior Professor of International Trade Policy, discusses the current balance of trade between the US and China. He explains that the Trump tariffs on China have continued under President Biden, leading to a decrease in imports from China. The trade deficit with China is likely to show the smallest goods trade deficit relative to US GDP in the last 20 years. However, it is unclear whether imports from China have fallen or if they have been diverted through other countries. Prasad also addresses the differences between Trump and Biden's trade policies and the potential effects of a 60% tariff on goods from China. He mentions that the uncertainty surrounding trade policy creates challenges for investors and businesses, both foreign and domestic. Prasad notes that while there may be opportunities in China's economy, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in every dimension. He also discusses the potential winners in the context of deteriorating trade relations between the US and China, highlighting countries such as India, Vietnam, and Mexico that have more open trade relationships with the US. Prasad concludes by emphasizing the need for policies that restore confidence in China's economy and direction.
#Trade #Us #China #Tariffs #Imports #TradeDeficit #Investment #Uncertainty
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-02-05/balancing-trade-with-china
US, China Officials to Meet in Beijing, Furthering Economy Talks
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US and Chinese officials will hold talks on economic issues in Beijing this week. A five-person delegation from the US Treasury will meet Chinese counterparts as part of the 'economic working group' established last year. The discussions will cover topics including the macroeconomic outlook, investment-screening regimes, and coordination on debt and climate change.
#Us #China #Economy #Talks #Beijing
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-05/us-china-officials-to-meet-in-beijing-furthering-economy-talks
US Economy Is Remarkably Strong Compared to Europe, OECD Economist Says
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The US economy is showing "remarkable strength" compared with Europe, according to OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. The OECD revised up its forecasts for US growth next year while cutting expectations for most of the euro area. Lombardelli attributes the weaker European economies to the tightening of monetary conditions and the shocks of the energy price surge in recent years. The euro area is now expected to expand only 0.6% in 2024.
#UsEconomy #Europe #Oecd #EconomicGrowth
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-05/us-economy-is-remarkably-strong-as-eu-weak-oecd-economist-says
Axa’s Thomas Buberl Wants to ‘Scale Up’ Corporate Business
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Axa SA's CEO Thomas Buberl plans to 'scale up' the firm's business insuring corporate risks in the next phase of growth. The company has shifted its focus from life insurance to property & casualty and health insurance to make it less sensitive to financial markets. Buberl expects more claims in the marine and aviation industry as geopolitical crises multiply. Axa is expected to unveil a new strategic plan later this month.
#Axa #ThomasBuberl #CorporateBusiness #Insurance #Property&Casualty #HealthInsurance #GeopoliticalCrises
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-05/axa-s-thomas-buberl-wants-to-scale-up-corporate-business
Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia 02/05/2024
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The article discusses the recent market developments and policy responses in Asia. It mentions the US strikes on Iraq, the expectations around the Fed's rate cuts, and Beijing's pledge to stabilize its local stock market. It also covers the weak Chinese economy, the deflationary cycle, and the potential impact of additional trade tariffs. The article highlights the need for policy collaborations, including monetary and fiscal easing, to address the challenges faced by the Chinese economy. The market volatility and concerns about forced liquidation of pledged shares are also discussed. Additionally, the article mentions the flow of funds into foreign stock ETFs as investors seek alternatives to the onshore market.
#Asia #MarketDevelopments #PolicyResponses #UsStrikes #FedRateCuts #Beijing #ChineseEconomy #DeflationaryCycle #TradeTariffs #ForcedLiquidation #ForeignStockEtfs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-02-05/bloomberg-daybreak-asia-02-05-2024
Atlantic Council's Wechsler on US Strikes Against Houthis
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William Wechsler, Senior Director of the Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council, discusses the US strikes against Iran's forces and its proxies in the Middle East. The goal of the strikes is to reestablish deterrence that has been lost in recent months. The success of reestablishing deterrence depends on the actions of Iran, its partners, and its proxies. Iran does not want a regional war because it would lose, and the US does not want a regional war because it would be devastating for the region and put US interests at risk. However, there is a potential for misunderstanding and escalation once the bombs start dropping. Iran and its proxies have a history of steadily escalating and waiting to be pushed back. The US and Iran are likely to have tough rhetoric in an election year, but the most important thing is the ongoing diplomatic discussions led by Secretary Blinken in the region. The US is trying to create a new relationship between the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, which is a worst-case scenario for Iran. The US and its allies have the ability to support Ukraine, support Israel, and protect their own interests in the region simultaneously. The conflict in the Middle East raises the threat of a wider regional war, but both the US and Iran want to avoid that outcome. The US and Iran are unlikely to shift their relations significantly this year, as Iran sees 2024 as an opportunity to push the US out of the region. The US and its allies have the ability to walk and chew gum at the same time, supporting multiple fronts and protecting their interests. The ongoing diplomatic discussions aim to broker a ceasefire and create a new geopolitical sentiment in the region. The US wants to end its forever war, but the conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Gaza raise the risk of a broader regionalization. Hamas has not yet accepted a significant deal on the table for a ceasefire, but the ball is in their court. The conflict in the Middle East has humanitarian consequences, and a ceasefire could be achieved if Hamas wanted to.
#UsStrikes #Iran #MiddleEast #Deterrence #RegionalWar #Diplomacy #Ceasefire #Geopolitics
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-02-05/atlantic-council-s-wechsler-on-us-mideast-strikes-video
Powell Tells ‘60 Minutes’ Fed Is Wary of Cutting Rates Too Soon
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Americans may have to wait beyond March for the central bank to cut interest rates as officials look for more economic data to confirm that inflation is headed down to 2%. In an interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes, Powell explained the central bank’s rationale for eventual reductions to a broad public audience. He emphasized the need for more time to see if the recent good economic readings are a true indicator of where inflation is heading. Powell stated that the Federal Open Market Committee is unlikely to reach a level of confidence about inflation's path by its March meeting. He also mentioned that policymakers do not factor politics or elections into their policy decisions. The interview provided Powell an opportunity to communicate to a broader audience just days after the Fed's decision to hold interest rates unchanged. Treasuries fell across all maturities in Asia as Powell's comments underscored the likelihood that bond investors had overshot in pricing for rapid rate cuts.
#JeromePowell #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #EconomicData
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-05/powell-tells-60-minutes-fed-likely-to-wait-beyond-march-to-cut
An Economic Revolution Comes Late Down Under
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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is implementing a reform to hold press conferences after rate decisions, a practice that is common for central banks globally but was resisted by the RBA. This marks a significant change for the RBA, which had fallen behind best practices in communication. The new governor, Michele Bullock, will make her debut press conference following a rate decision on Tuesday. The RBA's move to embrace communication reflects the growing importance of talk as a critical part of monetary policy.
#ReserveBankOfAustralia #CentralBank #MonetaryPolicy #Communication #PressConference
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-04/rba-revolution-comes-late-to-australian-central-bank
Pennsylvania Supreme Court Takes Aim at Politics of Cruelty
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The Pennsylvania Supreme Court directed a lower court to consider a challenge to the state's 1982 prohibition on Medicaid funding for abortions in cases other than rape and incest. The 3-2 decision was seen as an invitation to declare the ban a violation of the state's Equal Rights Amendment. Texas, where abortion is effectively banned, leads the nation in pregnancies resulting from rape. Texas Governor Greg Abbott's comment dismissing concerns about women forced to bring a rapist's fetus to term is criticized after over 26,000 pregnancies resulted from rape.
#Abortion #PennsylvaniaSupremeCourt #MedicaidFunding #EqualRightsAmendment #Texas #Rape
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-04/pennsylvania-supreme-court-abortion-decision-is-win-for-abortion-rights
NYC, LA, Dallas to Learn Which Will Host World Cup Final in 2026
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FIFA will unveil the match schedule for the 2026 World Cup on Sunday, including the location of the final. New York, Los Angeles, and Dallas are the top contenders to host the final. New York's MetLife Stadium, Dallas' AT&T Stadium, and Los Angeles' SoFi Stadium are the potential venues. The final decision will be announced by FIFA President Gianni Infantino. The US will host the later rounds of the tournament, while Canada and Mexico are co-hosting the 2026 World Cup.
#Fifa #WorldCup #2026 #NewYork #LosAngeles #Dallas
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-03/nyc-la-dallas-to-learn-which-will-host-world-cup-final-in-2026
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