Atlantic Council's Wechsler on US Strikes Against Houthis
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William Wechsler, Senior Director of the Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council, discusses the US strikes against Iran's forces and its proxies in the Middle East. The goal of the strikes is to reestablish deterrence that has been lost in recent months. The success of reestablishing deterrence depends on the actions of Iran, its partners, and its proxies. Iran does not want a regional war because it would lose, and the US does not want a regional war because it would be devastating for the region and put US interests at risk. However, there is a potential for misunderstanding and escalation once the bombs start dropping. Iran and its proxies have a history of steadily escalating and waiting to be pushed back. The US and Iran are likely to have tough rhetoric in an election year, but the most important thing is the ongoing diplomatic discussions led by Secretary Blinken in the region. The US is trying to create a new relationship between the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, which is a worst-case scenario for Iran. The US and its allies have the ability to support Ukraine, support Israel, and protect their own interests in the region simultaneously. The conflict in the Middle East raises the threat of a wider regional war, but both the US and Iran want to avoid that outcome. The US and Iran are unlikely to shift their relations significantly this year, as Iran sees 2024 as an opportunity to push the US out of the region. The US and its allies have the ability to walk and chew gum at the same time, supporting multiple fronts and protecting their interests. The ongoing diplomatic discussions aim to broker a ceasefire and create a new geopolitical sentiment in the region. The US wants to end its forever war, but the conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Gaza raise the risk of a broader regionalization. Hamas has not yet accepted a significant deal on the table for a ceasefire, but the ball is in their court. The conflict in the Middle East has humanitarian consequences, and a ceasefire could be achieved if Hamas wanted to.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-02-05/atlantic-council-s-wechsler-on-us-mideast-strikes-video