Chinese investors dump record amount of US stocks and bonds
==========

Chinese investors sold a record amount of US stocks and bonds in May, totaling $42.6 billion worth of long-term securities; Sales in the first five months of this year reached $79.7 billion, an all-time high for the January-May period; The sales were driven by risk reduction due to uncertainty around the US presidential election and possible political influence to reduce US dollar holdings; More than half of the sales were in Treasuries, followed by agency debt and stocks; China's holdings of Treasury notes and bonds have dropped $440 billion since the end of 2017; The prospects for Federal Reserve policy easing and a weaker dollar might discourage Chinese investors from holding too many dollar assets

#ChineseInvestors #UsStocks #UsBonds #Treasury #RiskReduction #UsPresidentialElection #PoliticalInfluence #Treasuries #AgencyDebt #Stocks #FederalReserve #WeakerDollar

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/719614 

 Private credit pushes deeper into risk Wall Street is fleeing
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The private credit industry is transforming into the world's new banks, with a greater tolerance for lending risks; Squeezed borrowers are turning to private lenders for stop-gap measures as they struggle to engage with public markets; Private credit funds are reaching further for deals as leveraged buyouts stay scarce; Borrow-now, pay-later deals and payment-in-kind debt are proliferating; Companies with little hope of a turnaround are being passed over by private credit funds; Lenders are implementing protections in deals to guard against asset shifting and loopholes

#PrivateCredit #Risk #Lending #Borrowers #FederalReserve #InterestRates #PublicMarkets #StopgapMeasures #LeveragedBuyouts #InterestMargins #Returns #Debt #Restructuring #PaymentinkindDebt #SyntheticPik #Bankruptcy #Protections #AssetShifting #Loopholes

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/719613 

 Oil prices edge up on US inventories but China caps gains
==========

Oil prices inched up on Wednesday as US oil stockpiles declined, offsetting signs of weakening demand in China. Brent crude oil futures rose 27 cents to $84.00 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 35 cents to $81.11. Crude oil inventories in the US fell by 4.4 million barrels in the week ended July 12. However, concerns over Chinese demand continue to weigh on investor sentiment as China's economy grew at its slowest rate since Q1 2023.

#OilPrices #UsInventories #China #Demand

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/719349 

 US Fed-induced world stagnation deepens debt distress
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The last decade and a half has seen protracted worldwide stagnation, worsened by the 2008 global financial crisis, the Great Recession, the Covid-19 pandemic, US Federal Reserve-led interest rate hikes, and escalating geopolitical economic warfare. Unconventional monetary policies, mainly 'quantitative easing' (QE), encouraged more borrowing as more credit became available and affordable. However, the resulting borrowing surge has returned to haunt economies since 2022-23 when interest rates spiked. Developing countries, heavily indebted and with little policy space, face more constraints and vulnerability. Debt stress has grown tremendously in the last two years, especially for developing countries borrowing heavily in major Western currencies. China's lending to developing countries has fallen since 2016, and private capital has fled to the US and other Western markets. Negotiating with private creditors in markets has proved difficult, and there is little hope for significant debt relief or strong recovery in the Global South.

#UsFederalReserve #DebtDistress #WorldwideStagnation #Borrowing #DevelopingCountries

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718951 

 US retail sales unchanged in June, beating forecasts for slight drop
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US retail sales were unchanged in June, following an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in May. Economists had forecast a 0.3% drop in retail sales. However, the outlook for sales is unfavorable as households are becoming more price sensitive and focusing on basic needs. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services surged 0.9% in June. Growth estimates for the April-June quarter were around a 2% rate before the retail sales data.

#UsRetailSales #EconomicGrowth #ConsumerSpending

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/719249 

 US retail sales unchanged in June, beating forecasts for slight drop
==========

US retail sales were unchanged in June, following an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in May. Economists had forecast a 0.3% drop in retail sales. However, the outlook for sales is unfavorable as households are becoming more price sensitive and focusing on basic needs. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services surged 0.9% in June. Growth estimates for the April-June quarter were around a 2% rate before the retail sales data.

#UsRetailSales #EconomicGrowth #ConsumerSpending

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/719249 

 BofA's 2Q profit falls on shrinking interest income
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Bank of America's (BofA) profit fell in the second quarter (2Q) as its income from interest on loans shrank and it set aside more money to cover potential credit losses. The second biggest US lender earned US$6.9 billion (RM32.23 billion), or 83 cents per share, in 2Q ended June 30, compared with US$7.4 billion, or 88 cents per share, a year earlier. BofA's net interest income (NII) in 2Q fell 3% to US$13.7 billion. Provisions for credit losses were US$1.5 billion, higher than US$1.1 billion a year earlier. BofA expects NII in 4Q to be US$14.5 billion, higher than the US$14.4 billion analysts were predicting. BofA's investment banking fees jumped 29% to US$1.6 billion.

#BankOfAmerica #2qProfit #InterestIncome #NetInterestIncome #CreditLosses #InvestmentBankingFees

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/719237 

 Thailand approves US$2.8b soft loan scheme for commercial banks
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Thailand's cabinet approves a 100 billion-baht (US$2.8 billion) soft loan scheme for commercial banks to lend to borrowers at below-market rates. The Government Savings Bank will offer liquidity to commercial banks through loans at an interest rate of 0.01% so they can lend to small businesses at a rate of no more than 3.5% per year. The scheme aims to help smaller businesses obtain loans and inject capital into the system. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin promises additional measures next week, including support for high electricity prices, to stimulate growth in the economy.

#Thailand #SoftLoanScheme #CommercialBanks #SmallBusinesses #InterestRates #EconomicRecovery #GovernmentSupport

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/719205 

 JPMorgan raises US$9b of bonds in post-earnings spree
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JPMorgan Chase & Co sold US$9 billion of bonds in the US investment-grade market, with the longest portion of the offering yielding 1.07 percentage point above Treasuries. The issuance comes after the bank reported record profit and a multibillion-dollar gain tied to a Visa Inc share exchange. Wells Fargo & Co, Citigroup Inc, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc are also expected to sell debt after posting earnings. The top banks are expected to borrow more than usual due to falling yields and upcoming US elections. JPMorgan credit analyst Kabir Caprihan expects US$21 billion to US$24 billion of issuance from the six biggest domestic banks. Risk premiums on investment-grade bonds have narrowed, and the overall cost to sell debt has fallen to the lowest in five months. JPMorgan was among six companies issuing US$18.1 billion of dollar bonds on Monday.

#Jpmorgan #Bonds #InvestmentgradeMarket #Earnings #DebtIssuance #UsEconomy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/719153 

 BlackRock assets hit record US$10.6 tril as markets soar
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BlackRock's assets reached a record high of US$10.65 trillion in the second quarter, with a 9% increase in profit. The company's shares rose 1.2% in premarket trading. The surge in stock markets and investor interest in AI-linked stocks contributed to the growth in BlackRock's assets under management, which increased from US$9.43 trillion to US$10.65 trillion. The company's investment advisory and administration fees rose 8.6% to US$3.72 billion. Net income for the quarter was US$1.50 billion, compared to US$1.37 billion in the same period last year.

#Blackrock #Assets #Profit #StockMarkets #AilinkedStocks

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/719045 

 How regulators are using banks to illuminate shadow banks
==========

The Federal Reserve has proposed new rules to gather details about banks' exposure to shadow banks. Regulators are concerned about systemic risks in lightly regulated and opaque shadow banks. The Fed wants banks to report detailed information about their lending to shadow banks, including entity type, collateral, and ownership by financial sponsors. However, regulators will still be blind to large portions of the sector. The Bank of England and the G20's Financial Stability Board are also collecting data on shadow banks. The Fed's proposal aims to collect granular information for stress tests, but it will take time to implement. Private equity firm Vista Equity is in talks to cede control of Pluralsight to private credit lenders. Regulators need to consider how private credit interacts with various entities, not just banks.

#FederalReserve #ShadowBanks #Regulation #SystemicRisks #PrivateCredit #BankOfEngland #G20 #StressTests

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/719012 

 Taiwan, India threaten China’s top spot in emerging market equity portfolios
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Taiwan and India are emerging as formidable rivals to China's top spot in emerging market equity portfolios. Both countries now command more than 19% weightings each in the MSCI EM Index, compared to China's 22.8%. Taiwan's rise is notable considering its market capitalization is less than a third of mainland China's. The Taiex Index has risen 33% this year, bolstered by gains in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. India's Nifty 50 Index has advanced more than 12% in 2024. The number of EM Ex-China fund launches this year is just three short of last year's annual record. Earnings are a crucial factor, with forward earnings estimates for Taiwan and India increasing by at least 13% each, while China's earnings revision is slow. Emerging Asia ex-China's equity markets recorded net inflows of nearly $9 billion since the start of June, with South Korea, India, and Taiwan among the top recipients.

#Taiwan #India #China #EmergingMarkets #EquityPortfolios

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718877 

 Unconventional Economic Wisdom: There is no debating who would be better for the US economy
==========

The article discusses the economic-policy records of US President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. It highlights that Trump's claims of credit for economic growth are unfounded, as the promised surge of investment never materialized and there was a wave of stock buybacks instead. Biden's economic record has been impressive, with the passage of the American Rescue Plan and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The article also argues that Trump's proposals would cause higher inflation, greater inequality, and negative effects on the labour market, deficit, and exports. It concludes that there is no debate on who would be better for the economy: Biden or Trump.

#UsEconomy #JoeBiden #DonaldTrump #EconomicPolicy #AmericanRescuePlan #BipartisanInfrastructureLaw #Inflation #Inequality #LabourMarket #Deficit #Exports

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718283 

 Vietnam's VinFast delays US electric car plant amid market slowdown
==========

Vietnamese electric vehicle (EV) maker VinFast is delaying the launch of its planned $4 billion factory in North Carolina to 2028 and cutting its delivery forecast for this year by 20,000 units. VinFast, founded by Vietnam's richest man Pham Nhat Vuong in 2017, will now deliver 80,000 vehicles this year, down from the initially planned 100,000. Sales at VinFast rose 24% to about 12,000 vehicles in the second quarter. The company expects strong sales growth in the second half of the year and will delay the launch of its North Carolina factory to 2028. VinFast logged a net loss of $618 million in the first quarter and is set to announce its second-quarter results on Aug 15.

#Vinfast #ElectricVehicle #Ev #NorthCarolina #PhamNhatVuong

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718871 

 US consumer sentiment falls to eight-month low on high prices
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US consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined to the lowest level in eight months in early July as high prices continued to weigh on Americans’ views of their finances and the economy. The sentiment index fell to 66 in July from 68.2, according to the preliminary reading from the University of Michigan. Consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next year fell for a second month, to 2.9%. Almost half of consumers expressed complaints that high prices are eroding their living standards. The recent downward path for inflation has provided some relief to consumers who felt squeezed by the post-Covid spike in inflation. The labour market has showed signs of cooling, with unemployment rising to 4.1% in June. The current conditions gauge fell to 64.1, its lowest since December 2022. Buying conditions for durable goods dropped to 85, the lowest in just over a year. Consumers’ perception of their financial situation now and in the future deteriorated in July, with each falling to the lowest level since October. The November presidential election may be weighing on consumers’ expectations for the economy.

#UsConsumerSentiment #HighPrices #Inflation #Economy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718862 

 US producer prices rise moderately in June
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US producer prices increased moderately in June, with the producer price index for final demand rising 0.2% after being unchanged in May. In the 12 months through June, the PPI increased 2.6% after advancing 2.4% in May. The government reported that consumer prices fell for the first time in four years in June. With the Federal Reserve now wary of labor market weakness, economists and financial markets are increasingly betting on a rate cut in September, with another reduction in borrowing costs expected in December. Fed chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the improving inflation environment but also highlighted the risks to the labor market.

#UsProducerPrices #Inflation #InterestRates

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718834 

 US treasuries wipe out 2024’s loss as traders bet on rate cuts
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US treasuries have erased this year’s declines as cooling inflation boosts bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. US treasury Index is up 0.3% this year, reversing losses of as much as 3.4% back in April. The latest move followed data that showed US inflation slowed further last month, fuelling the view among traders and economists that the Fed will start easing policy in coming months. Investors are looking for more evidence that price growth is broadly decelerating to decide whether the Fed has room to deliver more than two quarter-point cuts this year, a scenario they see as a one-in-three chance. Markets are now almost fully pricing in a 25 basis-point rate cut in September, compared with odds of only about 70% before Thursday’s CPI report.

#UsTreasuries #InterestrateCuts #Inflation #FederalReserve

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718788 

 As tide goes out on private credit, smaller firms look exposed
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Funds with less than $1 billion of assets received the least amount of cash on record last year. Large firms got more than four fifths of the $200 billion raised by private credit globally in 2023. Limited partners are choosing well-known giants over smaller managers. A growing number of newcomers are being forced out of the private credit market. Fidelity International and Polen Capital Management had to rethink plans to expand into Europe. Smaller firms are in danger of being swallowed up by better-capitalized rivals. Smaller firms can outperform on returns by lending to smaller companies. Investors are less interested in putting their money with the smallest managers. Higher default rates in the portfolios of small managers are the result of triggers on covenants often lacking on larger loans. Larger managers may imperil their own futures by squeezing out the smallest managers.

#PrivateCredit #SmallerFirms #LimitedPartners #MarketConcentration

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718770 

 China's exports top forecasts, but falling imports point to more stimulus
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China's exports grew 8.6% YoY in June, beating forecasts, while imports shrank 2.3%, indicating weak domestic demand. The trade data suggests manufacturers are front-loading orders ahead of expected tariffs. Analysts warn that sustaining strong export sales is a major risk for China's economy. The trade surplus in June was $99.05 billion, the highest on record. The US has highlighted the surplus as evidence of one-sided trade favoring China. China is expected to roll out more policy support measures and boost fiscal stimulus to kickstart domestic consumption. Economists and investors are awaiting the Third Plenum on July 15-18 for further developments.

#China #Exports #Imports #Stimulus #DomesticDemand #Tariffs #TradePartners #Economy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718738 

 CNN to cut 100 jobs in major overhaul to focus on digital, memo shows
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CNN plans to cut about 100 jobs as part of a consolidation and digital focus strategy. The news outlet will merge its news-gathering and digital news teams, invest in video operations, and launch pay-per-view news products. CNN Worldwide CEO Mark Thompson aims to build a billion-dollar digital business. The company will launch a stand-alone subscription product for news and plans to create TV Future Lab to produce content for the Max streaming platform. Thompson also outlined changes to editorial workflows, including centralized planning and a new 'story manager' role. The plan will be discussed in a town hall meeting.



https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718583 

 Intuit to cut about 1,800 jobs as it looks to increase AI investments
==========

Intuit, the parent company of TurboTax, plans to cut about 1,800 jobs, or 10% of its workforce, as it focuses on its AI-powered tax preparation software and other financial products. The company will close two sites in Edmonton, Canada, and Boise, Idaho. However, Intuit will rehire 1,800 new employees primarily in engineering, product, and customer-facing roles. The layoffs will cost Intuit between US$250 million and US$260 million, with most of the charge expected to be incurred in the fourth quarter. Intuit plans to increase investments in generative AI and expand into new markets, including Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia.

#Intuit #JobCuts #AiInvestments #Turbotax #TaxPreparationSoftware #FinancialProducts

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718581 

 JPMorgan upgrades Malaysia amid economic reforms, renewed investor confidence, data-centred investments — interview
==========

JPMorgan has upgraded its rating on Malaysia from 'underweight' to 'neutral' due to policy reforms, data-centred investments, and infrastructure buildout. Malaysia recorded a 4.2% GDP growth in Q1 2024 and earnings growth of 10-11%. The upgrade is also reflective of a governance reset following the 1MDB scandal. Foreign investors are returning to Malaysia, with a net inflow of $200 million in Q2 2024. Malaysia's potential as a technology hub is attracting interest, particularly in sectors like chip packaging, data centres, EVs, green energy, and solar projects. JPMorgan's upgrade reflects economic growth, effective policy implementation, and improving governance.

#Malaysia #Jpmorgan #EconomicReforms #InvestorConfidence #DatacentredInvestments #PolicyReforms #InfrastructureBuildout #GdpGrowth #EarningsGrowth #GovernanceReset #1mdbScandal #ForeignInvestors #TechnologyHub #ChipPackaging #DataCentres #ElectricVehicles #GreenEnergy #SolarProjects

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718568 

 US commercial property crash is set to deepen the pain elsewhere
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Distressed investors see an opportunity to buy troubled US real estate assets as the commercial property crash continues. Private equity firms have set aside $400 billion for property investment, with 64% targeted at North America. The fear is that a strong US bias will delay the work out of troubled loans and properties in other parts of the world. Almost $1 trillion of debt linked to commercial real estate will mature this year in the US, creating more options for buyers of distressed assets. The number of US banks at risk would exceed levels seen in the 2008 financial crisis if CRE values fell by only 20% from their peak. The overall pool of private equity capital for commercial real estate has shrunk by 26% globally. Banks in Germany update valuations of buildings they have financed less regularly than peers in the US. European Banking Authority chair Jose Manuel Campa expects a further increase in non-performing loans.

#UsCommercialProperty #DistressedInvestors #PrivateEquity #RealEstateAssets #CommercialRealEstate #UsBanks #GlobalEconomy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718511 

 US favoured over China in dozens of countries, Pew survey says
==========

A survey conducted by the Pew Research Center shows that the US has a more favourable image than China in 35 high- and middle-income countries. In 18 high-income countries, more than twice as many people view the US positively compared to China, with the gap most pronounced in Poland, Japan, the US, and South Korea. However, in the 17 middle-income countries surveyed, both countries were viewed similarly. While middle-income countries generally had a more positive view of China, the US maintained a slight edge even among the poorer group of nations. In terms of leaders, middle-income countries had similar confidence in US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. In contrast, the 18 rich countries surveyed had a more negative view of China and Xi, with only 24% having a favourable opinion of China and 17% having confidence in Xi. China's economic influence has increased in 11 of the 15 countries where sentiments were tracked, including Brazil, India, Kenya, and Argentina. Different nations had mixed views on whether these changes were positive. The survey also found that China is gaining popularity in some parts of the world, with Singapore being the only rich nation where more adults preferred China over the US.

#Us #China #PewResearchCenter #PublicOpinion #GlobalInfluence

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718484 

 Returns of US$7.2 tril green sector outpaced only by tech stocks
==========

The green economy had the second-best financial performance of any equity sector over the past decade, with total returns of 198%. Only the technology industry surpassed the green economy's returns. Energy management and efficiency were the best performers within the green sector. Renewable energy was a laggard. The green economy has a market capitalization of US$7.2 trillion and a compound annual growth rate of 14% over the past decade. Companies with green revenues account for about 8.6% of global listed equity markets. The FTSE Russell Environmental Opportunities All Share Index is used as a proxy for the green sector and has outperformed the FTSE Global All Cap by 82% since 2008. Energy management and efficiency have a compound annual growth rate of 17% over the last five years. AI and data centers may become a new driver for green economy expansion. Overcapacity in sectors such as solar and trade barriers related to renewable-energy equipment and electric-vehicle manufacturing are headwinds for the green economy. Protectionism can both accelerate and slow down the green economy.

#GreenEconomy #TechnologyIndustry #EnergyManagement #RenewableEnergy #MarketCapitalization

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718257 

 Bits + Bytes: A Miscellany of Technology
==========

Malaysia Digital Economy Corporation (MDEC) and the government are focused on implementing and realizing the investments made by global tech giants such as Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft. The government is fostering a collaborative environment where both investors and the public can witness the digital economy flourish. Major investments by technology giants like AWS and Microsoft in Malaysia’s data center industry are set to provide supply chain opportunities for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the country. Nearly 70% of total debit and credit card transactions were contactless following the pandemic. The average e-payment transaction per person rose 31.5% to RM9.5 billion in 2022 from RM7.2 billion in 2021. Gen Z and Baby Boomers prioritize efficient shipping and product variety over discounts when shopping online. The World Bank has appointed economist Zafer Mustafaoglu as the new country director for the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. Malaysia’s social entrepreneurship movement has untapped potential, and the ASBhive-Hasanah Impact Challenge offers RM250,000 in grants to support social enterprises focused on education, community development, and the environment.

#Malaysia #DigitalEconomy #TechnologyInvestments #ContactlessTransactions #Epayments #OnlineShopping #SocialEnterprises

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/717896 

 Gold hovers near two-week high as weak data fuels US rate cut bets
==========

Gold prices eased on Thursday but hovered near a two-week high hit in the previous session, after softer-than-expected US economic data fuelled hopes that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as soon as September. Spot gold fell 0.1% at US$2,353.14 per ounce as of 0637 GMT, after hitting highest level since June 21 in the previous session. US gold futures lost 0.3% at US$2,363.10. US economic data on Wednesday, including weak services and ADP employment reports, showed a slowing economy. A separate report showed an increase in initial applications for US unemployment benefits last week. Traders are now looking out for US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data, due on Friday. Markets are now pricing in a 73% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates at its September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

#Gold #UsRateCut #EconomicData #FederalReserve #InterestRates

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/717875 

 UPS plans to close Baltimore facility, lay off 540 workers - report
==========

A UPS customer center in Baltimore is set to close on August 23, resulting in the layoff of 540 employees. This follows a previous layoff of 118 employees at the same location in March. The closure was reported in a Maryland state filing and will affect hundreds of workers. The news was reported by Freight Waves.

#Ups #Baltimore #FacilityClosure #Layoffs

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/717672 

 Powell says US Fed needs more evidence of falling inflation before cutting rates
==========

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell stated that the US central bank requires more data before cutting interest rates, in order to ensure that recent weaker inflation readings accurately reflect underlying price pressures. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation did not increase in May, and the 12-month rate of price increases has decreased to 2.6%, still above the central bank's 2% target. Powell emphasized the need for confidence in the levels of inflation and noted that the US economy's strength allows for a cautious approach. However, he acknowledged that the risks to the Fed's inflation and employment goals have come closer to balance. The timing of an initial rate cut will depend on upcoming employment and inflation reports, with investors anticipating a quarter-percentage-point rate reduction at the Fed's September meeting.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/717642 

 BIS sends government debt warning before important elections
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The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned that rising government debt levels ahead of major elections could disrupt global financial markets. Global government debt is already at record levels, and upcoming elections in the US, Mexico, South Africa, France, and Britain carry risks. BIS General Manager Agustin Carstens emphasized the need to cut the rise in public debt and accept that interest rates may not return to pre-pandemic ultra-low levels. While central banks have successfully controlled inflation, Carstens urged them to persevere and not rush rate cuts. Premature easing could reignite inflationary pressures and lead to costly policy reversals.

#Bis #GovernmentDebt #GlobalFinancialMarkets #Elections #InterestRates #Inflation

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/717366 

 Jobs, inflation data may break the US Treasury market out of narrow range
==========

Yields on benchmark US 10-year Treasuries have been bouncing between about 4.20% and 4.35% since mid-June. The upcoming US employment data, followed by inflation numbers and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony, could change the outlook. The market is waiting for the other shoe to drop. A recent survey showed fund managers the most underweight bonds since November 2022. Some investors believe inflation is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels and the US economy is likely to show a higher level of underlying strength, limiting the longer-term downside for bond yields.

#UsTreasuryMarket #Jobs #InflationData #FederalReserve #BondYields

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/717292 

 US economy shows further signs of slowing under high rates
==========

Wide-ranging economic data illustrates a downshift in US growth over the first half of the year tied to both the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer borrowing costs policy and lingering inflation. The government marked down personal spending to an annualized 1.5% in the first quarter. Other data showed declines in orders and shipments of certain business equipment, the widest trade deficit in two years, weakness in the job market, and a slide in homebuying. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast now pegs second-quarter growth at 2.7%. The impact of mortgage rates around 7% on the housing market was illustrated by the National Association of Realtors index of contract signings for previously owned homes slumping to the lowest level in records back to 2001. Signs of financial strain suggest cooler growth in the coming months, with after-tax personal income rising just 1.5% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier. Labor demand is moderating, with continuing jobless claims climbing to the highest level since 2021. The value of core capital goods orders matched the biggest drop this year, and core capital goods shipments decreased 0.5%, the most in three months. The US merchandise trade gap swelled to $100.6 billion in May, the widest in two years, as exports dropped.

#UsEconomy #EconomicGrowth #FederalReserve #BorrowingCosts #Inflation

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/717157 

 Stocks and futures struggle ahead of key US data
==========

US equity-index futures slipped and Treasury yields ticked higher ahead of economic data that will help set the path for Federal Reserve policy. Reports on economic growth and weekly unemployment claims are on traders’ radar Thursday before tomorrow’s key inflation figures. Micron Technology Inc.’s disappointing sales outlook highlighted the risks of relying on artificial intelligence chip makers to fuel the stock rally. Europe’s stock benchmark was little changed, with traders in holding mode ahead of Sunday’s French elections. Stocks in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and China all declined, putting the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge on course for its first loss in three days. MSCI Inc.’s key gauge for Chinese stocks is on course for a technical correction as traders struggle to find catalysts ahead of a July meeting of the nation’s top leaders. In commodities, gold steadied after a two-day decline, while oil traded in a narrow range ahead of the next round of US economic data. Iron ore held a two-day gain, supported by signs that Chinese demand may pick up after property measures took effect across the country’s mega cities.

#Stocks #Futures #UsData #FederalReserve #EconomicGrowth #UnemploymentClaims #Inflation #ArtificialIntelligence #ChipMakers #StockRally #Europe #FrenchElections #Japan #HongKong #SouthKorea #China #MsciAsiaPacific #ChineseStocks #Commodities #Gold #Oil #IronOre #ChineseDemand #PropertyMeasures

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/717078 

 Fed’s key inflation gauges may offer path to rate cuts
==========

The US Federal Reserve's favored inflation yardsticks are expected to show minimal monthly advances, potentially paving the way for interest rate cuts. Economists project no change in the May personal consumption expenditures price index and a 0.1% gain in the core measure that excludes food and energy. The report is also expected to show 2.6% annual advances in both the overall and core gauges. Fed officials have stated that they need to see months of progress in inflation data before considering rate cuts. The labor market is still performing well, providing flexibility on the timing of rate cuts. Other upcoming data includes personal spending figures, consumer confidence, and housing contract signings. Central bank decisions in Sweden, Mexico, and Zimbabwe are also anticipated.

#UsFederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #Economy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/716418 

 Zafrul: Malaysia set to improve position in IMD's 2025 competitiveness ranking
==========

The government is confident that Malaysia’s position in the International Institute for Management Development's (IMD) World Competitiveness Ranking 2025 will improve from this year, driven by an increase in high-technology product exports. Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz said a reduction in the country’s high-technology exports influenced Malaysia’s lower positioning in the IMD list this year, and this is a short-term situation that is expected to improve in 2025. Malaysia’s lower position in the IMD competitiveness ranking this year resulted from a fall in electronic communications exports due to lower global demand, and increased global competition for electronic communications products. However, global sales of semiconductors are projected to increase in 2024 and 2025, benefiting Malaysia as the world’s sixth largest semiconductor exporter. Stable economic growth, low unemployment, and controlled inflation rate are expected to improve Malaysia’s position in the near future.

#Malaysia #CompetitivenessRanking #Imd #Exports #HightechnologyProducts #Investment #Semiconductors

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/716400