Oddbean new post about | logout

Notes by Kiran Kaur | export

 Losing someone young, or losing an older person while you are young, is always hard.

When my fat... 
 ♥️  
 I am getting close to giving a more detailed assessment on Israel/Hamas, as it drags on.

And it ... 
 It’s important for people to understand the polarity first-  where it stems from, how it’s fueled, and who it benefits (on both sides). 
 
 Over the last two years, my journey as a loan officer has sparked an insatiable curiosity about the complex interplay between finance and human conduct. Observing first-hand the disparities in lending, I was compelled to delve deeper into the intricacies of our financial ecosystem. This quest has not only illuminated how incentives can sway even the well-intentioned but also led me to a carefully selected collection of writings. Each work acts as a beacon, shedding light on the delicate fusion of human nature, the levers of power, and the economic structures that shape our existence:

	1.	“The Lessons of History” by Will Durant - Distills patterns from global historical events.
	2.	“Education of a Speculator” by Victor Niederhoffer - Provides a window into the practical world of financial speculation.
	3.	George Soros’s Books - Illuminate the strategies of speculation and market influence.
	4.	“The Republic” by Plato - Lays the philosophical groundwork for governance and justice.
	5.	“The Wealth of Nations” by Adam Smith - The seminal work on economics and capitalism.
	6.	Michael Saylor’s Interview with Lex Fridman - A contemporary examination of inflation and its effects.
	7.	“The Bhagavad Gita” - Offers profound insights into duty, righteousness, and life’s purpose.
	8.	“Meditations” by Marcus Aurelius - A personal manuscript on stoic philosophy and inner discipline.
	9.	“The Prophet” by Khalil Gibran - Provides poetic wisdom on life and the human spirit.
	10.	“The Price of Time” by Edward Chancellor - A deep dive into the history and implications of interest rates.
	11.“The Age of Discord” - Explores the societal trends and movements of nations.
	12.	“A History of the Federal Reserve” by Allan H. Meltzer - Chronicles the evolution of the central banking system.
	13.	“The End of the World is Just the Beginning” by Peter Zeihan - Projects the geopolitical shifts of the near future.
	14.	“Broken Money” by Lyn Alden Alden - Dissects the modern fiat currency system.
	
	
I will be adding more of my favorites on here as I continue to read . 

 
 A Comprehensive Timeline of U.S. Economic History and Key Innovations:

Early 20th Century:
- 1907:The Panic of 1907 catalyzes the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, establishing it as a financial stabilizer.

1910s-1930s:
- 1913:Niels Bohr and Ernest Rutherford make groundbreaking discoveries in atomic structure.
- 1913-1930s:Federal Reserve operates with 40% gold-backed reserves, focuses on banking stabilization.
- 1930s:Alan Turing's formative years, later contributing to WW2 efforts.

Post-WWII Era:
- 1944:Bretton Woods Conference sets the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, enhancing the Fed's international role.

1950s-1960s:
- Economic expansion with low-interest rates under Presidents Truman and Eisenhower.
- Kennedy and Johnson promote growth, with the Fed under Martin maintaining low rates amidst the Vietnam War.

1970s:
- Stagflation hits, Nixon ends the gold standard in 1971, and Volcker takes bold steps to curb inflation by the decade's end.

1980s:
- Reaganomics introduces tax cuts and deregulation. Greenspan continues Volcker's policies, later easing interest rates.

1990s:
- Stable growth known as "The Long Boom" with Clinton's presidency coinciding with a strong economy.

Early 2000s:
- The dot-com bubble burst and 9/11 attacks mark the decade's start. The housing bubble grows under Greenspan and Bernanke.

Late 2000s:
- The 2008 financial crisis strikes, leading to Bernanke's unconventional Quantitative Easing tactics.

2010s:
- A period of recovery ensues with continued low rates under Obama and Trump, and Fed Chairs Yellen and Powell.

Up to 2022:
- The COVID-19 pandemic triggers a global economic slump, with Biden's presidency and Powell's Fed responding with massive fiscal and monetary support.

General Trends:
- Mid-century sees the rise of globalization.
- The late 20th century recovers U.S. economic credibility and begins the Third Industrial Revolution.
- Parallels drawn between the 1920s/2000s (credit growth), 1929/2008 (financial crises), 1930s/2010s (economic stagnation), and 1940s/2020s (conflict and populism).

This brief provides insights into the pivotal moments and figures shaping economic policies through the decades, reflecting the evolution of the U.S. economy and its response to various crises. 
 Dear Ms. @LynAlden ,

Reflecting on the historical context of John Law's Mississippi Company, it's intriguing to consider the implications of limited gold supply on national debt as presented to the French government.

In an emerging landscape where Bitcoin becomes a significant economic factor, and national creditors are at risk due to over-leverage, I'm curious about your perspective on alternatives to traditional bailouts, which typically involve currency debasement.

Given that currency debasement can fund technological and energy advancements—thus fostering a cycle of innovation, education, and democratic progress, despite arising from adversity—I'm keen to hear your thoughts on whether this form of funding is essential for the continuous rapid growth in these fields.

Additionally, contemplating the historical instance of J.P. Morgan's intervention post-1921, I wonder what the modern equivalent might be in the absence of such a bailout.

Warm regards,
Kiran Kaur 
 A guy sends me a polite email, and says in a couple paragraphs that 1) he doesn't really see any ... 
 Physics to a cat. Either you study and know or you repeat others.