We seem to be at that point now when daily global demand matters much more than the daily supply reduction from the halving. Next halving will matter even less. 

What creates the bull run is the long term accumulation of coins in strong hands after the bear market. These long term hodlers have price targets that become self-fulfilling. Eventually some increased global liquidity causes the price to run and to bring in the degens who drive the price up to our mental target. 

It’s not stock-to-flow that matters. It’s actually the price target that we, the long term hodlers, have in our heads. When we collectively start to sell too much, the bull run is over.