Oddbean new post about login | logout - the model that’s supposed to chart and predict the market’s valuation of this asset didn’t work because the market “wasn’t ready” to value it according to the model. - good point! 😂 https://m.primal.net/Jtcs.jpg
Honestly I just assume all the replies like this are AI. I ran this through a LLM with the promp: "Respond to the following tweet agreeing with the content." And the result was: "I completely agree! The timing of the 2024 halving does seem to have caught the market off guard. Historically, halvings have aligned with accumulation phases, and it feels like we're experiencing a premature bull run. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out as the market adjusts." --- Dead Internet Theory.
Engagement farm in comments via a bot to drive content and followers to your page? Get as many eyeballs as you can for X revenue? I am sure there is some theory behind why to do it. And this just the first result generated on a light LLM. I am sure with fine-tuning you can get the perfect reply guy.
COLORFUL DOTS ARE NEVER WRONG https://media.tenor.com/FFdUstwZcHEAAAAM/color-spiral.gif
We seem to be at that point now when daily global demand matters much more than the daily supply reduction from the halving. Next halving will matter even less. What creates the bull run is the long term accumulation of coins in strong hands after the bear market. These long term hodlers have price targets that become self-fulfilling. Eventually some increased global liquidity causes the price to run and to bring in the degens who drive the price up to our mental target. It’s not stock-to-flow that matters. It’s actually the price target that we, the long term hodlers, have in our heads. When we collectively start to sell too much, the bull run is over.
