Oddbean

The way things are shaping up, I think the story arc for this next cycle or two will be: -A lot of altcoin VC money flows back into the Bitcoin ecosystem, builds a bunch of bubbles in startups based on too-early tech and broad speculation, and gets washed out when that tech takes longer than expected to mature. Additionally, a lot of the capital will get pulled toward speculation/trading of tokens on top of Bitcoin and blow up from that direction as well. -Then after it washes out, there will indeed be some good mature utility-focused tech that emerges out of it that makes Bitcoin's layered stack better and more user-friendly. Bitcoin, both as sound money and to some extent as an immutable truth layer, emerges stronger. https://m.primal.net/HcEA.jpg

Let’s ride this wave and build a resilient #bitcoin circular economy. Excited for companies layering in Lightning payments, improving UX, and being smart by not over-leveraging BTC reserves. Cash+Sat flow positive… let’s roll

I used to say anything cryptos were doing, could be done better on lightning, with a firm foundation. Then I saw what taro was doing and shut my mouth cuz I didn’t want it. But I do look forward to more payments adoption. I haven’t wrapped my head around fedi:e-cash. I just don’t want to see it go the same way as gold not being 1:1 with the underlying.

In a surprising move, this year @semisol will also turn his make-believe Bitcoin business into a real Bitcoin business!! Promise!! nostr:note1hwp7qeck9qkfrpycrp6lqw3jzum5grjj37uar7tf9zldrnjf8h3s8p9rfv

Most VC are nothing more than market timers, who use specks of truth to inflate bubbles and talk up their book, before dumping it on retail. They delude themselves and others into thinking they are smarter and doing God's work. In reality, they are weak, soft-handed, whiny babies and overpaid pond scum. So, will they follow Chamath in thinking Bitcoin is the story for 2023, shit all over the space, splash the table, and leave a mess...you can bet on it. But, bitcoin doesnt care. Nor do I.

I think this is accurate, but I also think it is a recurring cycle with no end in sight. Like a spiral as maturity/stability increases and as novel innovation reduces accordingly. No end in sight in the Bitcoin space.

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