Oddbean new post about login | logout HODLing is a psychological battle with yourself. How much pain and scorn can you handle from the normie world? What is your pain tolerance for sustaining your HODLer conviction through big 50% or even 80% drawdowns? Are you willing to think independently and ignore TradFi influencers who preach about being allocated to govt bonds or stock indexes or trying to be a property mogul? If you do it correctly, you are richly rewarded for HODLing over time - both financially and mentally. If you do it poorly, you risk selling during the drawdowns or hard times.
I'm still hodling some shitcoins because I'm well beyond pot committed. much easier to hold bitcoin 🤷
It's your life and your choice. But if it was me, I'd sell and flip the shitcoins into bitcoin.
Till the rugpull comes
So true. Learned it the hard way. Selling/losing most of my Bitcoin helped me grow so much. Proof of work is how you should hodl. Value4value
Was OK with everything through the 50% to 80% thing. Can you explain what this selling thing means please?
As in, if you don't have a strong hand to HODL, you might sell low rather than keep on HODLing
Spend, dont sell. Ignore price. Its not actually that hard. Its a simple principle.
I'm not talking about the 'difference' between spending or selling, I'm talking about the people who lose faith altogether and sell their Bitcoin to go back to fiat investment (or not investing at all)
Paused YouTube to have a scan through Nostr and you were the first note on my feed. So while I’m here just want to thank you both @Gigi 🙏 https://m.primal.net/KgSW.jpg
Love it. It's so cool that people come across podcasts from years ago. Always a pleasure to chat with @Gigi
Think you could get him to record a new show? 🙏 Miss him. 😭
this @Gigi
Not in the foreseeable future, but I'll return to the mic one day.
Probably a good call - OpenSats is more important than podcast appearances!
When you say “do it correctly” do you mean DCA each month or do you mean buying between the bear and bull market, that 6 month window?
I'm not one to try and time the market, so for me it's more like 1. Live within your means 2. Stack bitcoin consistently with the difference
Been hodling since before the famous post that coined the term. I haven’t been perfectly wise but I haven’t been perfectly unwise either. The biggest lesson I’ve learned while watching bitcoin price grow from 10¢ to $50,000+ is this: don’t quit your day job, get a better one. Meaningful work is a blessing and being able to choose where and how you work will be possible in time with the security bitcoin brings. Conversely, an unnaturally early retirement is more curse than blessing…very frequently works out poorly.
👌
I’m even aware of the concept of selling Bitcoin. People do that? Weird. 🤔
“HODL は自分自身との心理的な戦いです。一般社会からどれだけの痛みや軽蔑に耐えられるでしょうか。50% または 80% の大きなドローダウンを乗り越えて HODLer としての信念を維持するための痛みの許容度はどの程度でしょうか。 国債や株価指数への配分や不動産王になろうと説く TradFi の有力者を無視して、独立して考える覚悟はありますか。 正しく行えば、HODL によって金銭的にも精神的にも、時間の経過とともに大きな報酬が得られます。下手に行うと、ドローダウンや困難な時期に売却するリスクがあります。” nostr:note1y3966h58lmfswnlgh7tqklcjd4rw467xq2w422gdulrfg8kt5dpqgf9965
My first 70% drawdown was the hardest. Though it allowed me to DCA in cheaper. Chastening during that time. Ultimately there are only 21M. 🧡
GOOD MORNING 🌞 Hodl On! nostr:nevent1qqszgjadt6rla5c8fl5tl9st0ufx63h2a0rq98249yx70355rm96xsspz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhsygqelm7h7wwfd5hlwmu87a384eu3gk7fw8v2kgeq2qze8xj6jyau9upsgqqqqqqssd0p67
Ah, the eternal HODL battle—the true test of mental strength. It’s like Bitcoin bootcamp: ‘No pain, no gains’ they said. 80% drawdowns? That’s just Bitcoin’s way of seeing if you’re in it for love or just for the ‘Lambo’ 😎. TradFi influencers will try to seduce you with talk of bonds and property. But hey, are you here to follow the herd, or to transcend to financial nirvana? The HODL life isn’t for the faint of heart—it’s for those who see beyond the dip and into the light... or maybe just a really big stack of sats. Remember: HODLing is a marathon, not a sprint. Keep your sats and your sanity.
HODLing is like fasting. It takes willpower, but the rewards are amazing.
HODLing is a psychological battle with yourself. How much pain and scorn can you handle from the normie world? What is your pain tolerance for sustaining your HODLer conviction through big 50% or even 80% drawdowns? Are you willing to think independently and ignore TradFi influencers who preach about being allocated to govt bonds or stock indexes or trying to be a property mogul? If you do it correctly, you are richly rewarded for HODLing over time - both financially and mentally. If you do it poorly, you risk selling during the drawdowns or hard times.
I first bought bitcoin at the height of the 2021 bull run. Then i watched in horror as it went from $64k to $17K.I then learnt about it, getting fully sucked down the rabbit hole. I didn’t panic. I found every way I could to accumulate more sats at the lower levels. I’m juggling my fiat constantly but I still haven’t sold a single sat nearly 3 years later!
#Bitcoin rewards calm patience. It punishes manic reactivity. Bitcoin allows one to work hard, then put the fruits of that labor into something that will retain the value of that hard work over time so one can focus elsewhere and enjoy real life: family, friends, travel, food, nature.
Stephan, 🎯 but note: "to think independently" allows decision. (Latin decidere, from de- ‘off’ + caedere ‘cut’.) You cut away irrelevant matters A decision is not an emotional thing - so "pain and scorn" are irrelevant. The beauty of the HODL - pre-mass adoption A cold wallet hodler can say in truth: - I did it my way !
I agree that HODLing is a real test of conviction, especially during 50% or larger drawdowns. That said, I think that in the long run, greed can't be the only driver. It can be a powerful motivator in the first cycles, but at some point, there needs to be a higher, more moral goal that goes beyond just accumulating wealth. As for diversification, I'm aligned with your view (or is it Pierre Rochard’s or Saif’s?) that Bitcoin in self-custody is probably the best ETF for the global economy. Still, diversification can make sense—not so much to improve the risk/reward ratio in the traditional portfolio sense, but more to build resilience against different kinds of "attacks" whether they're tax-related, legal, or more personal (like the $5 wrench attack or an unexpected family need combined with some offramps being locked). On hyperbitcoinization (I bring it up because I believe that this rational conviction is probably the only one that justifies HODLing at all costs) unfortunately, while it might be the ultimate goal, I’m afraid it might be still far away and current price action might show that the suddenly phase is not happening tomorrow. That doesn't mean we shouldn't work towards it, even if the path might be longer than we’d like
My record is currently - 73%. I started to doubt myself for a shorttime, and then reminded myself that the fundamentals had not changed. I have to say being on BT listening to the stories of OGs brought relief! 😅
great summary of the internal conflict. just dont get liquidated or stopped out and hodl / accumulate. you do have to ultimately believe that the network is the answer to have full conviction. once you have that you start thinking about how to serve the network and help it flourish
