Oddbean new post about login | logout USA has had its kristalnacht already... all we need next is a burning of the reichstag and we can have an american hitler i am almost certain that the coming election is not going to happen and that some new doom theatre emergency will be staged that will be pumped hard by all the media to keep people submissive and then we will have our invade poland moment next will it be mexico? hong kong? or is this kursk thing already the thing? i'm glad i'm on an island far away from all this shit
I have a suspicion that we're 12 months into Barbarossa already, victories are tapering off, and winter is coming. American Hitler is plural, attention-seeking, snorts coke, and has been moving nonexistent units around the map for years.
indeed, that's pretty much what i'm digging at also and yeah, in 3 months time things get wet and boggy in eastern europe, it's gonna be ugly and we may even see some of these hypersonics get put to use ukraine forces have slammed a bridge in kursk now and many commentators are saying that russia probably needs to cut all the bridges of the dnieper at this point, so it's going to obviously continue to escalate until the winter, and then it will go to siege mode and ever more attrition on both sides, as the theatre spreads north
Selfishly, I'm fine with it spreading north before settling into static lines for a bit. Its new outbreaks in other theatres that I worry about. Australia's economy will implode as fast as the GulfStreams can flee if the balloon goes up over Taiwan. Or North Korea. Quite possibly Iran alone would be enough. Its the energy, especially refined fuels.
yeah, the entire West and much of the East is a no go zone for me right now my thinking for my immediate future is to just stick it out on this island, war is not coming here, at least, at worst not likely more than happened in WW2 when some germans shot at portuguese in funchal bay and then the portuguese sunk the german ship and that was that it's an island covered in farms, and aside from internet connectivity and tourism has nothing strategic, not even as a staging area, azores are better due to flatter landscape it would be a big mistake to try and attack this island anyway, extremely expensive fuel costs, materiel maintenance (trucks running off cliffs and brakes wearing out etc), there's almost nowhere to land a plane and almost everywhere has an easy to hold higher vantage point where snipers could pick off enemies long before they got in range
Sounds like a solid choice.
yeah, even if the ships stop bringing stuff in this place has more than enough food to feed the people here, about the only thing maybe people would decommission a lot of grapes to put sheep and goats in, they are the most practical for the steep terraced hills madeira exports a lot of wine so if nobody is picking it up from the bay they very likely would just let the vines fallow and have herds keep the grass down and sell the meat on the local market it's pretty much ideal, really, i almost hope that the international trade routes sending all that wine and cakes *does* get disrupted for a few years i think if there is any military activity around this place, the most likely is going to be keeping those undersea cables happy, something that all sides will want anyway, USA needs it to keep their africa actions running, europe needs it to stay connected to usa and south america, and china is too far away to deploy much here
My off hand theory (not prediction) is that they picked unlikable Kamala because she is expendable. Next month Kamala debates Trump. If they got a bomb in it would take out both of their problems and not look like a political attack on their opponent like the botched Trump assassination. It would be easy to blame on someone like Iran or Russia which would also further their international aspirations. I have no proof of this, but it makes sense enough that I wouldn't be attending the debate even if it was in my town and free.