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 I have a suspicion that we're 12 months into Barbarossa already, victories are tapering off, and winter is coming.

American Hitler is plural, attention-seeking, snorts coke, and has been moving nonexistent units around the map for years. 
 indeed, that's pretty much what i'm digging at also

and yeah, in 3 months time things get wet and boggy in eastern europe, it's gonna be ugly and we may even see some of these hypersonics get put to use

ukraine forces have slammed a bridge in kursk now and many commentators are saying that russia probably needs to cut all the bridges of the dnieper at this point, so it's going to obviously continue to escalate until the winter, and then it will go to siege mode and ever more attrition on both sides, as the theatre spreads north 
 Selfishly, I'm fine with it spreading north before settling into static lines for a bit.

Its new outbreaks in other theatres that I worry about. 

Australia's economy will implode as fast as the GulfStreams can flee if the balloon goes up over Taiwan. Or North Korea. Quite possibly Iran alone would be enough. Its the energy, especially refined fuels. 
 yeah, the entire West and much of the East is a no go zone for me right now

my thinking for my immediate future is to just stick it out on this island, war is not coming here, at least, at worst not likely more than happened in WW2 when some germans shot at portuguese in funchal bay and then the portuguese sunk the german ship and that was that

it's an island covered in farms, and aside from internet connectivity and tourism has nothing strategic, not even as a staging area, azores are better due to flatter landscape

it would be a big mistake to try and attack this island anyway, extremely expensive fuel costs, materiel maintenance (trucks running off cliffs and brakes wearing out etc), there's almost nowhere to land a plane and almost everywhere has an easy to hold higher vantage point where snipers could pick off enemies long before they got in range 
 Sounds like a solid choice. 
 yeah, even if the ships stop bringing stuff in this place has more than enough food to feed the people here, about the only thing maybe people would decommission a lot of grapes to put sheep and goats in, they are the most practical for the steep terraced hills

madeira exports a lot of wine so if nobody is picking it up from the bay they very likely would just let the vines fallow and have herds keep the grass down and sell the meat on the local market

it's pretty much ideal, really, i almost hope that the international trade routes sending all that wine and cakes *does* get disrupted for a few years

i think if there is any military activity around this place, the most likely is going to be keeping those undersea cables happy, something that all sides will want anyway, USA needs it to keep their africa actions running, europe needs it to stay connected to usa and south america, and china is too far away to deploy much here