I think that's right.

One thing I've learned from failed attempts at "orange pilling" is that you can't sell something to someone who believes they have no need for that thing. If "normies" are generally happy with their current social media platforms they don't have a strong enough incentive to learn a new platform. If/When they realize they need a censorship resistant platform #nostr will be there for them. 

 I think people will really appreciate Nostr once it isn’t just bitcoiners on here. Apps like Damus really do make it similar to twitter but without all the bots and undisclosed advertisements, but I have seen people try it and just leave after a while because they don’t care about Bitcoin. Kinda difficult though because that is a chicken and egg problem