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 And banning Nostr would be much, much harder because a firewall would have to block port 443 and at that point, they're blocking the world wide web. 
 Only if its a stupid firewall.

If you have your own root certificate (and China does), you can MiTM every port 443 request and perform DPI on it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Root_certificate

I've installed my own root cert into my computer and used Squid in Peek 'n' Splice mode to do it.

China doesn't bother doing this to all cross border traffic, because they don't care enough to commit the resources.

I'm guessing a Western country will be the first, and it won't be the USA. More likely mine (Australia), or UK/FR/DE/IT. 
 Yes.

Open protocols are like water.

Be water, Derek 💜