Oddbean

I tend to think that the cheating will be absolutely massive because those in charge have broken so many laws, if their cheating is exposed they will be ruined, so they will do worse than they have done before. I also think that Trump will get way more real votes. What I have no idea about is whether Trump can win by enough extra votes, so that the cheating can be overcome. Sadly, I have my doubts. I've also always laughed at every election being called "The most important election ever." I actually think this is the election that determines whether or not we have any freedom or not (not that we have much left) and whether votes matter at all going forward or whether we become like Venezuela and Iran, where they hold "elections", but the results are predetermined. I admit that Americans are usually given two choices, that are acceptable to those in power, to vote for. Even though I think Trump has some major faults, I don't think he is one of those "acceptable" choices and has messed up their system. We'll see.

agree on all of this except I think that if they succeed in cheating, there will subsequently be a war for the framing of what happened, and whoever wins that war will win the election. I don’t mean violence either, though some false flags might happen, but a war of frames, whether “you’re a conspiracy theorist, don’t question elections wins — which it did in 2020” or “enough is enough, you’re lying, we know you’re lying, and you know we know, and the people, which includes the police and military, are not going along with it.”

I've found it baffling that the Biden/Harris administration has not even pretended to care about the destruction and death of people by Hurricane Helene. They should want to look like they care right before an election, even if they don't actually care. The fact that they have been so nonchalant and have actually been hindering rescue efforts makes me think that they think they have fixed the election. They may have fixed election machines and counters. They may have an "October Surprise", like another pandemic or war which will allow them to either suspend elections or go to 100% mail-in ballots that can easily be miscounted. I don't have any evidence , but I've never seen a whole party show such disdain and lack of empathy towards voters right before an election. You are likely right that people will finally stand up if there is an obvious fix like 100% mail-in ballots or suspended elections. For what it is worth, they did just have a bird flu event just like they had Event 201 right before the covid "pandemic".

it is very bizarre — I can’t believe they’re that inept or negligent, has to be something going on. But the problem with cheating is some states like Florida will play it straight, so how do you explain the discrepancy? And once people see how obvious it is, “you’re a conspiracy theorist, our elections are secure” won’t cut it in 2020. So yeah, it would be real battle to frame it. But also literally anything is on the table. This was one nightmare scenario: https://www.chrisliss.com/p/conspiracy-part-5