I don't think the betting markets are reliable election indicators anymore. For starters, they could be manipulated by campaigns looking to influence plausibility and keep donations coming in. 

But even if that weren't happening, there's another big problem which is that a large portion of Trump supporters believe the election process is likely to be rigged. 

Such a person might believe Trump will garner more real votes, but would not want to bet on the outcome. If say 40 or 50 percent of Trump supporters (obviously I'm making up that number, but seems plausible to me) feel this way and don't bet, that means there are 3:1 Harris supporters in the pool of bettors, and that's going to skew the odds massively. 

As such, I think the betting markets are terrible indicators this time around.

(The reason this occurred to me was that Polymarket (I read somewhere) had Tim Walz as a big favorite to win the debate. Seemed like that would only be possible if Trump voters were disinclined to bet due to perceived rigging.) 

That means much of the analysis around election odds (which if fueled by manipulable polls and poor-indicator betting markets) is garbage-in, garbage out. 

Personally, I have two takes on the real election odds:

1. To the extent cheating is possible (and some of that will depend on the vigilance of the citizenry) the chance it happens approaches 100 percent. 

And 

2. When the usual indicators (polling, betting markets) have been gamed, look to the fundamentals. In this case, it's bad economy, high inflation, immigration crisis paired with a candidate that lacks political skill, i.e., the ability to persuade people and inspire confidence. 

I don't know how much cheating will ultimately be allowed, so I can't predict the official result, but to me the fundamentals say landslide.
 

 I tend to think that the cheating will be absolutely massive because those in charge have broken so many laws, if their cheating is exposed they will be ruined, so they will do worse than they have done before.  I also think that Trump will get way more real votes.  What I have no idea about is whether Trump can win by enough extra votes, so that the cheating can be overcome.  Sadly, I have my doubts.

I've also always laughed at every election being called "The most important election ever."  I actually think this is the election that determines whether or not we have any freedom or not (not that we have much left) and whether votes matter at all going forward or whether we become like Venezuela and Iran, where they hold "elections", but the results are predetermined. 

I admit that Americans are usually given two choices, that are acceptable to those in power, to vote for.  Even though I think Trump has some major faults, I don't think he is one of those "acceptable" choices and has messed up their system.

We'll see.