https://www.bitcoinprediction.market/

Nit yet with nostr integration but the dev is  

 nostr:nprofile1qqswr3azuct6plf94zeez7ya32jxw8qav806rqq6uck6ax0nh076gdcpzdmhxue69uhhyetvv9ukzcnvv5hx7un8qyf8wumn8ghj7mn0wehkztnwv9nk77tpqyt8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnswf5k6ctv9ehx2aq3f670w when nostr logging and sharing your bets as a note?  

 We're working on developing an LMSR based prediction market where you can buy and sell shares. Once that's launched we can develop extra features like a nostr bot to broadcast trading activity (while maintaining privacy).

Nostr login + lightning login will also be integrated 

 I don't know nothing about it, but wouldn't it be easy to get a known provider sports book and just do the "front end" 

Betplay . Io
Betpanda . Io 

They use almost the same structure you'll have huge markets already with liquidity, i honestly think that the jump here is the social integration, all betting platforms try to build there own messaging system, Nostr could benefit being the backbone to all.

We got you, triible we need to integrate the social aspect  

 I’m bullish on these guys, but the trick is, they’re known. So they can get got. 

We need Joinmarket for predictions. 

 The issue with prediction markets is that they are centralized trusted third parties that aggregate bets to forecast event outcomes. Centralized helps because it enables more aggregation of information, but also it opens the market to threats from hostile agents. 

I've thought about how to do decentralized prediction markets, and I've found that simplistic "betting markets" are possible, but not LMSR based prediction markets that provide forecasting alongside betting. 

 Oracles via tor doesn't fix this? 

 I haven't been able to conceptualize a mechanism that incentivises honesty, so the oracle problem really just boils down to a web-of-trust/reputation scheme.

The critical problem is more so that there needs to be some agent receiving bets (as Bitcoin/Lightning transactions) and that same agent redistributes rewards. If there is no centralized agent, then it could be conceptualized as a decentralized p2p betting market, but then there is no forecasting benefit that a prediction market provides, it's just people placing/taking bets at whatever odds they are comfortable with. 

  @straycat is doing some very intriguing WoT work you might find valuable. 

 Once GrapeRank is sufficiently built out, it will be a good tool for curation of oracles 

 "Coplan was not provided with a reason for the raid, but the source suspects it was political retribution since Polymarket predicted an easy Trump triumph over Vice President Kamala Harris — as opposed to traditional polls. The source also speculated that the government is likely piggybacking off liberal media reports that accuse Polymarket of market manipulation and rigging its polls in favor of Trump."

How would a prediction market even be able to manipulate elections? Who would vote differently because of ... whatever happening in a bet? I can see how a strong bet in one direction or the other can lead to complacency in both voter groups but if I wanted to see Trump voters to show up in high numbers, I would push the ratio to 48% Trump, 52% Harris and there's probably a science to the timing and exact numbers but a prediction market's leaning shouldn't turn blue voters red or the reverse. 

 🤡 🌎 on display.