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shawn | 13 hours ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +1 
 I’m bullish on these guys, but the trick is, they’re known. So they can get got. 

We need Joinmarket for predictions.
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BitcoinAlchemist | 10 hours ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 The issue with prediction markets is that they are centralized trusted third parties that aggregate bets to forecast event outcomes. Centralized helps because it enables more aggregation of information, but also it opens the market to threats from hostile agents. 

I've thought about how to do decentralized prediction markets, and I've found that simplistic "betting markets" are possible, but not LMSR based prediction markets that provide forecasting alongside betting.
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shawn | 10 hours ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 Oracles via tor doesn't fix this?
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BitcoinAlchemist | 10 hours ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +1 
 I haven't been able to conceptualize a mechanism that incentivises honesty, so the oracle problem really just boils down to a web-of-trust/reputation scheme.

The critical problem is more so that there needs to be some agent receiving bets (as Bitcoin/Lightning transactions) and that same agent redistributes rewards. If there is no centralized agent, then it could be conceptualized as a decentralized p2p betting market, but then there is no forecasting benefit that a prediction market provides, it's just people placing/taking bets at whatever odds they are comfortable with.
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shawn | 10 hours ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +1 
  @straycat is doing some very intriguing WoT work you might find valuable.
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straycat | 9 hours ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +1 
 Once GrapeRank is sufficiently built out, it will be a good tool for curation of oracles