Oddbean new post about | logout
 I appreciate your thoughtful answers to my question. Definitely can get on board with what you are saying. My only caveat is say overnight adoption happens which most likely won’t, lightning channels will be expensive to open but that neither here nor there. I agree with your assessment that Bitcoin adoption will be slow and gradual. I’m still the only bitcoiner I know IRL in my immediate circle of friends and family. 
 Yeah no problem I enjoy these kind of conversations and thought experiments. 

You are right in that when TX fees are an order of magnitude higher opening a self-custodial LN channel will be very costly. I think Ecash or custodial LN will be the go-to in those situations. Which I personally don’t have a problem with. Custodial services will have their place in this environment. 

When 99.95% of an individual’s wealth is properly shielded behind Sha256 then the small transactional amounts moved over custodial L2s as needed aren’t much of a risk at all. And it’ll enable use of Bitcoin for commerce very efficiently. It’ll work well bc custodian services specialize in efficiency and ease-of-use.