Oddbean

Everyone has bugbears about #Bitcoin and #Bitcoiners. Mine is the lack of elite theory that Bitcoiners have studied and/or discuss. Seems to be too far out there for Ancap-types who acknowledge natural hierarchies but then shy away from the reality of it. Many seem to think we’ll have hyperbitcoinisation entirely without impetus - ie fiat money printing will do all the heavy lifting and we’ll just end up in this idyllic world where government is restrained because everyone has seen the light and adopted Bitcoin and they can’t print more. I assign a roughly 0.00001% chance to that outcome. The heaviest weighted category in my view (with diverging paths at a certain point) is Bitcoin has a massive run and creates a new financial elite which could become a new social counter elite. This happens *well before* government is occupied by non-parasites who will be on a warpath for a wealthy but highly disorganised class of people who have the means to destroy them but lack the coordination. That will be the time to plant Bitcoin’s flag for a new system. Not when status quo institutions have spilled our blood and were forced into joining and then co-opting our economic system - that’s FAR too late. That flag won’t be planted unless we give serious thought and mindshare to how such a system could work and what tradeoffs we’d all be willing to accept for the least bad system because rest assured, normies will stick with the parasites if the parasites are the only ones articulating a vision, even if their vision sucks. I’m here to embrace the new counter elite, and to work with likeminded Bitcoiners on ways to uproot the establishment and replace them *permanently* with fewer shitcunts. NGU for me only matters insofar as it allows tables to be flipped. I don’t want a lambo, I want a dynasty. I don’t want fiat justice to prevail, I want the natural justice of parasite head’s on pikes for what they’ve done to the people. I want new fables written about the evils of usury and new myths to take root in civilisation about what is good and righteous that cross religions and cultures. I want #Bitcoin and #Bitcoiners to succeed to their fullest, by replacing the parasitic system rather than just usurping it. That’s what I’m here for - how about you? nostr:note14hd2z48knluwy5t77ff6zkkf6fw4zrk3h06g4v2ttgakk67hqrusuv56eg

You’ll find plenty of that in death. I’m more interested in what happens between now and then, if the first decades of my life are anything to go by then I’m not expecting much peace in the meantime.

I don't think that Bitcoiners are that homogeneous group. I wouldn't expect this kind of theory as an output. Ancaps might be better target. With economists, sociologists and other thinkers who come to a conclusion that it's very wrong how we organize as a society today and actyally introduced anarchy as a possible mitigation. 🤷🏻‍♂️

The parasitic establishment elite aren’t a homogeneous group, nor are the current counter elites - yet both have their visions for the world. Without an articulated vision, there is nothing to rally people behind. Without a head the body doesn’t know what it’s doing. That’s how you get a power vacuum and Bitcoin is many things, but power-vacuum-resistant it is not.

Bitcoin is fundamentally a bottom-up technology. It’s about decentralizing power, allowing individuals—regardless of their wealth or status—to opt out of the parasitic structures of fiat and centralized control. Hyperbitcoinization, in my view, isn’t something that needs elite coordination or a top-down push. Rather, it's about people making the conscious choice to shift their energy and value out of fiat and into a system that benefits from voluntary adoption and self-sovereignty. You’re right that the parasitic elites will resist Bitcoin, but that’s where Bitcoin’s strength lies: it doesn’t need to overthrow them in a direct confrontation. Just by refusing to participate in their system and redirecting our energy into Bitcoin, we’re creating a parallel economy, a system that naturally rewards those who opt in. Over time, Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes it impossible for elites—new or old—to control. It thrives on the collective strength of individuals choosing a better system, not on an organized counter-elite flipping the tables. In essence, Bitcoiners can win by simply refusing to play the old game. By redirecting energy away from the parasitic system, Bitcoin succeeds from the ground up, one person at a time, without needing centralized leadership or a financial elite to guide it. It's a different path to success—one where coordination is distributed, and power is naturally diffused among its users. #Bitcoin nostr:nevent1qqs89sucrm8l5wk06cts8qtsj6s8g4xqy4sa7vz9833g6c9rhgyfxqsppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qgs8efndg9ntzm65595xsxgm58rrs65hvcj0gc608ztdndn5pgugegcrqsqqqqqp6l65zp

1. I'm not a communist and nothing I said indicated I was 2. But you are clearly an elitist based directly on what you said 3. Going back to your puerile slur, it's an indication of deep brainwashing typical of US Americans who are the most brainwashed ppl on the planet (by far)

1. The only people who reject hierarchies are communists. 2. Yes I am an elitist, I don’t believe all humans are inherently the same as would be evidenced by how me playing a game of basketball 1v1 against Michael Jordan would go. 3. I’m Australian.

I initially followed you because you identified as an Australian. My point, albeit not so well made, is that you were exhibiting a mindset typical of brainwashed US Americans, particularly the ranting about 'communism'. Elitism is not understanding that ppl have differing levels of ability, everyone understands that. It's the elevation of one class of ppl above others. And ppl who ptofess it always want to include themselves in that class, of course. And btw, going back to your name calling about my being a communist, I am in the top 0.01% of capital accumulation (wealth). That capital gives me certain power, but doesn't make me, or anyone else of similar wealth, 'elite'.

I wonder about how large a section of the current elite are already holders and will be able to rise to match the counter elite or consolidate their existing wealth. Some holders with a sufficient stack will be propelled to elite status but I think many in that status currently will not struggle to stay there. This does not conflict with your point at all and perhaps I overestimate how much bitcoin powerful people hold but it's something I think about. Hopefully there are enough counter elite to mount a fight and bitcoin sufficiently changes the incentive structures.

I'm here to help find a way for humans to thrive together using positive sum games. I have no bugbears about Bitcoin or Bitcoiners. From my perspective, everything is unfolding as it needs to & I see evidence of this every day. I'm filled with hope & excitement but I've also just spent the long weekend camping with based Bitcoiners & their families. 💚

Highly agreed. People would like to see everything just "going their way" without doing any work for it to make it to bring it about. It is a comforting thought... but also not a very realistic one. If you want to move the world closer to the direction of your liking, you must put in the work. And with that said: It will always be a small minority who are active players and shape the world around us, have an impact rather than remaining on the passenger seat of life. It's those we must connect with and focus on rather than some blurry vision of "mass adoption" (which is mostly driven by NGU fantasies). We have 2024. Everybody has heard about Bitcoin by now and if they're still not on board, they might just not be the people who are ready & well-qualified to be part of an impactful minority.