Oddbean

Here is a taste of the rental crisis #AUStriches are facing. Aus used to have a ton of backpackers come through on working holiday visas. They would work in cafes and pubs and work manual labour jobs; and have to spend time out in the regions typically doing farm work for a second year on their visa. Now these people can’t get anywhere to live when they come here, there are not enough houses available and the prices are sky high already. We will lose access to this cheap labour soon enough which will mean more Indian students and Asians to plug those gaps as only they are willing to live 10 to a house and make peanuts. None of this is sustainable, it won’t take much for it all to crumble. https://v.nostr.build/vqy7.mp4 nostr:note1hyunwlz08l3eufl5ae2d0ng2epzjku2lrhxys6kyunr6zjscdddskv76v8

Sydney always was insane for housing. Turned down a job offer there maybe 15 years back when I realised I'd need a 30% pay increase to break even, after viewing Sydney rentals exactly the way that girl did. "Developers Margin" over 30% in Sydney, versus ~20% in Melbourne and Brisbane. That's a good proxy for political interference, obstruction and gate-keeping. But everything in the above post is true, regardless. Government only planning for the next press conference, and that requires number-go-up.

You can’t have central planning with heavy gov intervention, and then have zero foresight amongst those leaders. Politics nowadays is just a mad dash to loot the treasury and hope the bubble doesn’t burst on your watch

Pricing out deflationary forces, only adds to more inflation until something breaks, and the currency will have to be the fall guy. I've got some clients from AU and they're all too happy to outsource to me in South Africa despite the time difference just to save a back and remain competitive

The currency will be the fall guy. Gov is intent on propping up the housing Ponzi, all the politicians own multiple properties and juice the shit out of the system so they won’t change anything which risks them and the Boomers wealth. Expect to see more of this: https://i.nostr.build/6DJq.jpg

Australia has 3 levels of government propping up the Ponzi. Local Govs are all NIMBYs who restrict development, States restrict the land, Feds tax the shit out of them and impose the fiat ponzi such that only real estate outpaces inflation. nostr:note1r23jyazlsx7ehjjlz525cz6fycr6yu5hu7klevzppapusytpvd2qvvrmj6