Oddbean new post about login | logout you're right, though i also deeply dislike "you were just lucky" accusation, as if it wasn't a very emotional ride, and holding through all the FUD campaigns, dumps, altcoin hypes, leveraged daytrade nonsense, crashing and robbed exchanges, was just easy like that 🤷♀️
This is truth. Many early adopters were trolled, trashed and dumped on, and that wasn't easy to take. I can't even begin to count the number of times I've heard "bitcoin is only for stupid cucks gambling". The Same fucking situation with Nostr in like 2020-21, "you dumb bitch, that nostr thing is going nowhere, its unusable and useless" if you can handle people continuously shitting on you for years, its not about luck anymore. Early adopters always get the brunt. Conviction is not about "luck". Hanging on is difficult and you have to be okay with social rejection 1000x.
Risk taking is about luck, 20%. The rest is about persistence, making choices, .. I was lucky to know about it, but then not selling it when I made 5x (which I did a bunch of times), saving half of my income to buy Bitcoin, go Bitcoin only. There was no luck in it, it was systematic and anti hedonistic. There was nothing sexy about going to a Bitcoin ATM while everyone was vacationing in Thailand. I don't like the "at the price they deserve", because I think the price is a much better deal now. Even though it's more expensive to buy, there's also a ton less risk. 10 years ago it was still possible it will lead nowhere and we'll just have to lick our wounds and move on. Now it's sixth largest reserve asset in the world and you are buying something that works and will not go away. Risk adjusted, a much better deal.
