Oddbean new post about login | logout Great read, Nathan. Thank you for posting. What would be your $MSTR price target to go back in?
You need to value the operating company separate from the Bitcoin. Once you know what the value of the operating company is, you’re looking for the price of a share of MSTR to be below the per share value of the company + the price of sats per share (the photo below will give you the current sats per share but remember this changes). If an opportunity presents itself again, my guess is that it will be around the approval/launch of the spot bitcoin ETFs and people sell MSTR for the ETF or just buy the ETF instead of MSTR and then it could get oversold. https://image.nostr.build/1f743970e4b1d306c67c25afc75e7277905b6a97930d214f4e6cb35229c988fb.jpg
Another simple way to do it is to build a premium/discount calculator comparing sats per share to the price of bitcoin and if the current MSTR premium ever becomes a discount, you’re good to buy. This means you’re getting the sats at a discount and the operating company for free. This is what I used to trade among MSTR, GBTC, and OBTC. https://image.nostr.build/2f0a1dabcb2fec9119c7de7860ff090b1493f58aede591ca4bd6f5903337a744.jpg
Understood! I own a ton of $RIOT and $MARA stock and have been floating the idea of getting some exposure to $MSTR. Thank you for this framework! Time to dive into the numbers.
I think my numbers were off slightly. These numbers are taken from page S-8 of the supplemental prospectus and accurate as of November 28th. (I had to verify and kit just trust my work! Haha) https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/financial-document-archive/prospectus-supplement_11-30-2023.pdf https://image.nostr.build/a20a12bdfbc928cb13eb91ff196d4f727057efe21d4ce3c8daffdeabfa96e727.jpg https://image.nostr.build/40db25ed299ffd6820e6c10c6570290b092362e1b809c0ea06cf394b7949c825.jpg
