No surprise, $MSTR issued more stock to do it. (See below.)
This was the right move as the stock has been trading at a high premium above its #bitcoin holdings, higher than the operating company is worth. ($MSTR should trade at a premium above its bitcoin holdings as hr operating company also has value, the question is how much.)
I believe @saylor is laser eye focused on one metric: *sats per share.* He’ll do anything that doesn’t threaten the stack to increase it.
IMO, he’s a brilliant capital allocator.
This is why I had my mom buy some MSTR shares back when the stock was trading at the price of the bitcoin plus $8 for the operating company. It’s was a steal. Since then both Bitcoin and the MSTR premium have soared.
Now, if only Saylor can enter into a tiny loan he uses to buy bitcoin. Then when Bitcoin goes down & every lazy person who can’t be bothered to understand the loan agreement thinks MSTR is going to default pushes the stock to a large discount, he *buys back* shares and demonstrate to Wall Street what real capital allocation looks like.
When Bitcoin tanked, and as a result MSTR tanked because lazy people thought MSTR was at risk of defaulting on the Silvergate Loan, I moved my GBTC into MSTR & netted a bunch of sats. I’ve since moved back into GBTC, then OBTC, and then back into GBTC again netting me a bunch more sats.
I’m waiting for the MSTR premium to come back down to move out of GBTC into MSTR which is, all things being equal, the better play. (No fee, an operating company that will keep generating free cash flow to stack more sats, and one of the best capital allocators in the business.)
My guess is the divergence between the GBTC discount and the MSTR premium closes when a Bitcoin spot etf gets approved/launched. So that’s what I’m keeping my laser eyed focus on. https://image.nostr.build/19d3c77c770ff2175fbd96b45b20b70abec57174bce6489db1ac572668986f1e.jpg nostr:note1pk7c7gqws528u8kgrnfefx0yljnhh7m49v3nnu6xca8l5f03wevslfrpd5
Also, at some point, post the etf approval and launch which should close the GBTC discount, I’ll probably buy spot Bitcoin. This is all in my Roth, so I’ve got to roll it over to some place that will let me do that like unchained. And for various other reasons, I wasn’t able to do so.
Also, I’m not too worried about counterparty risk or seizure of bitcoin by the government in the immediate future. So, I wanted to trade my way into more bitcoin than I would otherwise have. But I do think both are real risks in the medium to long term.
Why will the ETF approval close the GBTC account? I have funds in both - MSTR & GBTC - and have been wondering about the approval's expected impact on both.
@Dr. Jeff: as a MSTR owner, any added thoughts about the above?
Great read, Nathan. Thank you for posting. What would be your $MSTR price target to go back in?
You need to value the operating company separate from the Bitcoin. Once you know what the value of the operating company is, you’re looking for the price of a share of MSTR to be below the per share value of the company + the price of sats per share (the photo below will give you the current sats per share but remember this changes). If an opportunity presents itself again, my guess is that it will be around the approval/launch of the spot bitcoin ETFs and people sell MSTR for the ETF or just buy the ETF instead of MSTR and then it could get oversold. https://image.nostr.build/1f743970e4b1d306c67c25afc75e7277905b6a97930d214f4e6cb35229c988fb.jpg
Understood! I own a ton of $RIOT and $MARA stock and have been floating the idea of getting some exposure to $MSTR. Thank you for this framework! Time to dive into the numbers.
Good post! What do you think the MicroStrategy base business is worth, should be valued at when trying to do the math here? I’ve been using $1.2B but am curious your thoughts?
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