Oddbean new post about login | logout @7502a322 no it is not right but I don’t buy that illegals are causing the housing problem. Nor do I buy that housing issues are the leading reason why young people are choosing to not marry. Marriage and having kids is not something young people are thinking about. They want a dog and a cat and to shack up indefinitely and lead an easy life having fun with a career in doing something they love. They don’t get that and get stuck waiting for it.
@7502a322 The housing problem is due to multiple things that are much more obvious to me than a flood of illegals. All during Covid there was zero foreclosures which can only cause an inflated market. Add supply chain issues preventing construction, still more help to not foreclose, ramped up expectations for the size of house everybody wants, and a really inflated market before we even entered the scamdenic, and it’s obvious that the market will get out of control. We need a correction badly.
@7502a322 but a correction would also send us into a recession right now, if not a depression, especially with the supply chain issues. We are screwed. But with me believing all of that to be true, I still agree that the flood of illegals is incredibly idiotic and counterproductive and adding to the problems. And if they were actually legal immigrants, just some of them, we wouldn’t have the labor shortage and it would light a fire in young people, perhaps, but I wouldn’t count on it.
@90aca61c "but a correction would also send us into a recession right now, if not a depression, especially with the supply chain issues. We are screwed." I know what you mean, but in my head it still comes across as, "if we make the cheaters play by the rules, it'll ruin the game".
@7502a322 who are the cheaters? The cheaters are the politicians pandering to the ignorance of Americans that think they are entitled to a house, no matter how inflated the market is. If I was king, I would be backing out the fha loans a little bit by increasing the requirements to get an fha loan little by little. Then I would incentivize construction and development. I would also incentivize low cost rentals and give more power to tenants to evict easily.
@90aca61c anyone who has ever complained that people "just don't want to work anymore" while keeping employees wages stagnant while enjoying the largest profits in the company's history and using that as a justification for laying off citizens in favor of illegals that they don't pay taxes on and reap even more profits. I've been in the rooms when HR types make this complaint and call over to the temp agency to get more workers who they pay half the rate and no benefits for a year.
@90aca61c I don't begrudge anyone who takes all the risk and runs their own business. It's hard. It's harder than it needs to be with all of this worthless regulation. However, when, Disney, for example, pays their employees minimum wage, owns all of the government housing within 50 miles and has our tax dollars paying to feed their employees and paying Disney to house them, I don't have any sympathy for the "Magic Kingdom" and I hope they go bankrupt. Do better.
@7502a322 ya and that’s what should happen. Don’t work for Disney. And Disney will either fold or get a clue or maybe even get a clue but be too late and still fold.
@7502a322 and that will send shockwaves and corporations will realize they need to provide more. But what’s interesting about that is that it will cause prices to go up yet again and wages will have to go up yet again.
@90aca61c but you're ignoring all of the cost increases because of the illegals. * dozens of hospitals and clinics in California and Texas bankrupted due to illegal alien nonpayment — those savings were passed on to the rest of the country in the form of higher medical and health insurance payments * illegals contribute to uninsured motorist claims, often fleeing the country after accidents, contributing to rising cost of auto insurance * plus, increases in violent crime, drugs, etc.
@7502a322 valid points. I’m not ignoring those points though. I really want the flood of illegals to stop. I’m just saying we have other issues that are contributing more to other things.
@90aca61c for sure, I'm not disagreeing with your other points, but the illegals have gotten to the point where the tub is overflowing and running across the floor. "Let's turn off the water first" — NO, start bailing! Bail faster!
@7502a322 ya. There are so many ridiculous things occurring that obviously could be addressed better that it is hard to know what are the leading factors. I see the masses (mostly members of the progressive uniparty) behaving like narcissists that cannot admit they ever do anything wrong and I see that as the most dangerous thing for our kids’ future. Pol Pot, Stalin, Hitler, etc all suffered from that same affliction and the people that bought into it all went to a point of no return.
@90aca61c I can do that because I have an education and skills that are in demand and I have some money saved back for a rainy day so, I can move, if I have to. Many people with a high school education growing up in the swamps of middle Florida are barely getting by and Disney is the largest employer in Florida. I know, do better in school, get a scholarship and get out of there, right? But what do you do with the rest of them? Eugenics?
@7502a322 haha. Actually I don’t have a college degree, didn’t get any scholarships and I did fine just because my dad instilled in me a joy for a good work ethic and not much fear of being a little poor sometimes. But to your last point, haha, he also gave me good genes that made me smarter than the average bear. 🤷♂️
@7502a322 I agree that corporations aren’t raising wages fast enough, but I also see “people not wanting to work anymore”. It is an employee market now if employees just had the honesty and ethics to continue to be extremely valuable but say “I would like X or I’m going to seek employment elsewhere, which I don’t want to do but will at this point.”
@90aca61c I think we're arguing two different types of people. You're arguing that deadbeats who don't want to work shouldn't get special treatment, which I completely agree with. I'm arguing for young people just starting out and getting cornholed in a corrupt political/work environment. Which is what I see more often. My dept is understaffed right now and management talks like there's nothing they can do about it. "What incentives are you using to attract talent?". Crickets...
@7502a322 ya. I just think we see the same coin from different sides. In my experience companies are very nervous about offering more because of what they are getting. But to your point, they should pay more and fire more and make that very well known. Productive people hate working with deadbeats anyway, especially when understaffed, and would love hearing that sentiment.
@7502a322 of course, I would protect the border and send people back even if they have legit reasons for asylum. We allow asylum seekers, but not one that break our laws right off the bat. I am convinced that dems don’t even know how manipulated they are by people pulling the strings that for some reason want illegals over legals. My guess is that illegals cause divisiveness and they will side easily with the ones that pander to them. Dems addicted to getting their egos stroked know that too.
@90aca61c illegals work for less money. It's modern day slavery. Silicon valley laid off thousands of American workers, kids with thousands of dollars of student debt and then turned around and requested H1-B visa holders to take their place. They still want the work done, but they don't want to pay fair market for it. And the H1-B workers get paid less, and if they cause problems, the companies will revoke their sponsorship and they'll get yeeted back to their home country.
@7502a322 ya, those H1-B visas are a problem. And I especially don’t like how many of those people are just here for the money.
@90aca61c I don't blame them, the only reason I show up to work is because they pay me. Don't get me wrong, I wanna do a good job so I can look myself in the mirror, but if the paychecks stopped, I'd have to find something else.
@7502a322 of course. And if I were your employer I wouldn’t hold that against you, especially if you were always a standup dude that gave the company all you could. I should say I have experience in what you are talking about. I worked for a company in Denver that was making gobs of money, so much that they easily could afford to be really dysfunctional. They wouldn’t hire people on. I had to work through a temp agency and really good people had to work through a temp agency for years.
@7502a322 I ended up quitting to relocate to Alaska in an attempt to save my first marriage. I had to give a little less than two weeks notice because the next company wanted me to start sooner. They got a little tweaked that I wasn’t giving them two weeks notice. I responded to them saying they never gave me any commitment, so I don’t feel real bad about giving 9 days notice instead of 14. The next day they escorted me out. Those type of companies deserve to fail but they won’t.
@7502a322 moral of that story is I was way better off relocating than sticking around there hoping they would figure it out.
@90aca61c I think there should be some reciprocity. If you require two weeks notice before I quit, you should give me two weeks notice before you lay me off. If you wait until Friday at quitting time to tell me that I have to work all weekend, I should be able to tell you Friday at quitting time that I'm not able to work the weekend. Most of that type behavior is poor planning on management's part and they want superhuman behavior from you but shitty leadership from them.
@90aca61c FAIR estimates that approximately 16.8 million illegal aliens reside in the United States So, young citizens are competing for housing with 16.8 million people that shouldn't be here in the first place. And that number is probably waaaay low.
@7502a322 oh I agree it’s a factor sending us in the wrong direction, I just don’t agree that it is the leading factor.
@90aca61c Young couples delaying marriage and starting a family as they struggle to get on the housing ladder https://www.rrdailyherald.com/lifestyles/entertainment/young-couples-delaying-marriage-and-starting-a-family-as-they-struggle-to-get-on-the/video_ccfafdbb-392f-5200-a876-a3c7d2e69766.html Its basic supply and demand. You bring in millions of more people and they need somewhere to live, what does that do to the cost of housing? It drives it up.
@90aca61c A paper released by the U.S. Census Bureau reveals that a smaller share of Millennials are getting married, compared to previous generations at their age, due to economic concerns. Labor force participation, wages, poverty and housing costs and living arrangements are strong factors causing young adults aged 18 to 34 to delay marriage. https://www.nawrb.com/millennials-are-delaying-marriage-because-they-cant-afford-it/
@7502a322 I know millennials and ya they’ll give you every excuse in the book of why they don’t want to marry. Marriage actually makes things financially easier, not more difficult. People still got married during the Great Depression. And people still get married in 3rd world countries where standards of living is much much lower. And they actually have less reason to get married because they can’t survive independently otherwise.
@90aca61c number one reason for divorce? Finances Millenials have lived through two (2) "once in a lifetime" financial crises. Average new car note is 7 years, average new home mortgage is 30 years. Young people are paying more for the same and paying for longer.
@90aca61c also, 50% of marriages end in divorce. Of those divorces, 90% are initiated by college-educated women. As a young man, would you marry a college educated woman with those odds in this economy?
@7502a322 now you are getting closer to my line of thinking. I think divorce numbers being high and marriage rates being lower are a cultural issue and much less a financial issue. Actually I don’t think it is a financial issue at all. It’s an issue with the new dynamics of finances within a marriage. Even well off married couples are getting divorced at a higher rate over finances.
@90aca61c young American women have, largely, been ruined. They have unrealistic expectations of marriage and life in general. Largely fuelled by social media, IMHO. It's not enough for three months of salary to buy an engagement ring anymore, you also need a high status job, car, home, etc. "What? I'm not living in an apartment, what if my friends/followers/etc. saw me living here?" The country, as a whole, was better when it thought of itself as a Christian nation.
@7502a322 🛎️🛎️🛎️🛎️
@7502a322 my folks didn’t wait until they could buy a home. And when they got married they literally put their tv set on cinder blocks and laughed about it. They didn’t put their hand to their forehead “wo is me”. They actually enjoyed persevering and never feared the fact that they could only own one vehicle at times. They new they could make it and build a life eventually as long as they didn’t mess things up for themselves. They did fear bad luck because that’s always a factor…
@90aca61c I didn't wait until I could buy a home either, but I do have kids who are going to inherit this shit and I'm not going to sit here and lie to them that the deck isn't stacked unfavorably against them. And it doesn't have to be this way.
@7502a322 I think if your kids have integrity and work hard and provide value and actual profits for companies, they will excel considering their competition. I just think the housing market is scary because I think it is hyper inflated and dangerous for young investors. I have kids too. I’m extremely concerned about the cultural breakdowns that are occurring and this quiet quitting and passive aggressive nature causing productivity and reliability to plummet.