Oddbean new post about login | logout I don't listen to Bitcoin-only economists anymore because they are incapable of predicting short- and mid-term changes and in the long run we are all dead.
Screenshotting for posterity. @Laeserin just quoted Keynes
Keynes is right about that. It's a brilliant quote. The future is completely uncertain and if anyone tells you what will happen in 40 years, he's lying. There may not even be humans in 40 years.
Especially if we keep listening to Keynes.
Keynes had only one problem though. Stagflation. What's the solution for this?
Keynes was brilliant. As was Marx. Doesn't mean that they were right about everything.
If empirical evidence contradicts their foundational argument, how can any other arguments they build be taken seriously. Monetary expansion is not beneficial to markets and value is not derived from labour.
I'm not going to debate the life and work of Keynes, here, but I just want to say that I am intellectually capable of analyzing each concept in isolation.
Okay that's valid. I'm not opposed to economic statistics for example, even though I think many economic models are worthless as they treat economics as a natural science.
Value is not derived from labour? Where does value derived from?
Value is subjective.
Not according to everyone. For others value can be measured
They are measuring things that correlate with the median valuation, but that valuation is subjective.
Still not according to everyone and not all use the method which uses the median valuation. But my english don't help me explain that as i wish
No, I get you. It's the normal economic theory that valuation is objective.
Ah that's exactly what I wanted to say in a few words, which is that there are several normal economic theories
So very long story very sort, keynes economics worked very efficiently after world war two (not for Greece, we had a very bloody civil war three times worst than world war two) and continued to work for thirty years or so until stagflation established itself and keynes economics could not give a solution. So, the so called liberals came with Reagan and they proposed the bubbles. Bubbles worked for stagflation for thirty years or so. You know the rest i think. And here we are. We have to find another solution, bubbles don't work now, except for some nasty elites.
If they don't own anything else, they don't care about anything else, and they don't understand anything else. Their models predict nothing accurately, but they just keep using the same models.
What do you mean by "Bitcoin-only economists"? Do you mean social media influencers who tell you to buy Bitcoin? Or modern day Austrian economics thinkers?
I mean "economists" who own no major assets other than Bitcoin (or other crypto) and just want to talk about Bitcoin price movements and the future after hyperbitcoinization and etc.
But you won't name names.
Ha ha. You can think of five, right off the bat, tho right?
Not really. All the proper Bitcoin economists I can think of have exposure to other stuff.
Then they aren't Bitcoin-only, tho. Also have to be careful that Bitcoin businesses are not a diversification away from Bitcoin.
Here are economists (and financial analysts) I still find interesting because they add information: Mark Friedrich Peter Schiff Lynn Alden Dr. Daniel Stelter Jeff Snyder Deffner and Zschäpitz Sarah Wagenknecht
never been able to understand what Snyder is talking about. Tried to follow a few times but never could grasp what he was really saying
He talks way too fast and gives little background info.
eurodollar babble, literally no idea how it tied to anything or what actionable info he was trying to convey. Opposite of Lyn Alden who is a plain spoken clear thinker. Anyone can understand her.
Peter Schiff? he keeps making bad predictions about bitcoin so what else is he getting wrong?
So you find wagenknecht interesting... Me too
She's amazing. Often wrong, but fascinating and brilliant.
I like the old classic view and the different to classic apprach of migration, if i understand correctly
I give it a few days before i watch because to be honest they all say the same thing. Literally
I enjoy following monetary policy even though I don't support central banks. Microeconomics, stock market, yield curves are all super interesting too. Economists should just analyze / invest /participate in the market though, they shouldn't have any mandate.
keynes was right
