Oddbean new post about login | logout I will forever be proud of the fact that I shilled you the mandibles lol 😂
A PODCAST RIP THAT WILL LIVE IN INFAMY.
And yet everyone out there continues to scream that #China needs to unleash a fiscal "bazooka". The Chinese are the first to have learned that debt fueled growth isn't the answer. And yet, watching the world's second largest economy attempt to fundamentally shift its economic model in real time is fascinating. It is also not for certain that this process will succeed. This is also your daily reminder that regardless of what it is you read, thus far all China has done is stimulate via monetary policy. There has been zero focus on the fiscal front. And there won't be. I will not lie. It does please me to watch global economists continue to gnash teeth over how China refuses to listen to their collective "advice".
Is this wrong? Isn't Chinese debt to GSP almost 300% https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/07/the-evolution-of-chinese-debt-in-2024?lang=en https://i.nostr.build/yovjXzvijg6cegaG.jpg
This is a very simplistic way to make the comparison here in #China. What it is I would say for now is that Total Social Financing (TSF) includes bank loans to corporate entities and households. So, this doesn't make an apples-to-apples comparison to the US or elsewhere in terms of relatively to GDP. Think of it this way. Very little in the way of lending in China is done via capital markets (ie the bond market). You would need, again for simplicity, to include in the US data all debt issued by all companies and all households (including mortgages) to get to a number that would be comparable to China's TSF. But don't get me wrong. China has an overleverage issue and addressing this issue has been priority #1 of the government over the past three years.
Oh for fucks sake ...... this article was written by Michael Pettis. He has been so colossally wrong on his #China predictions for the better part of 20 years. In fact, he infamously wrote a (at the time) well received op-ed in the Financial Times back in 2009 claiming that China's growth prospects were over. Moreover, the points he made in that piece are the very exact same arguments he is making in this Carnegie article.
lol that’s right — first time I heard of it was on that rip with you two!
SIX YEARS LATER MARTY STILL REFUSES TO READ IT 😂😂😂
I need to read this! Is it on par with Atlas Shrugged!?
Not super comparable. Easy read or listen. Its just a family, The Mandibles. Follows them in a post US economic collapse. Not necessarily what will happen but a plausible outcome. 🧡👊🏻🍻
Awesome thanks!
Altlas shrugged is like 1500 pages lol. I listened to the audio book on tape many years ago and it was great buuuut was like 15hours long
i barely managed 200 pages, if that, and decided it was boring af
The ideas are extremely important but the cliffs notes are an alternative 🧡🍻👊🏻
yeah, i just think it's something for a quieter time i tried to read lovecraft and also found it extremely tedious i did start reading Fountainhead, i think it was, that was easier going one thing i will say, is that part of what makes her so important but also so hard to read is that it's too much like reality, like, even though we fight, it seems so much like we are only winning the small things and the big things keep getting bigger, darker and uglier
60 hours I think
Was it that long? It was 35 years ago. On Cassets lol
63 hours, according to google, to be more exact 😆
