Oh for fucks sake ...... this article was written by Michael Pettis.  

He has been so colossally wrong on his #China predictions for the better part of 20 years.  

In fact, he infamously wrote a (at the time) well received op-ed in the Financial Times back in 2009 claiming that China's growth prospects were over.  Moreover, the points he made in that piece are the very exact same arguments he is making in this Carnegie article.