Oddbean

Prediction for the next year in #Bitcoin: • We will have a healthy pullback from this short run • People w/ BDS will tweet "See! It CrAsHeS!" • It'll calm down, start a slow climb, & then rocket up again • BDS-ers will scream "BuBbLE!!" for the 173rd time • It'll have a healthy pullback • Rinse and repeat as #Bitcoin climbs into the multiple hundreds of thousands • BDS-ers will get increasingly insane and frantic, "IT DOES NOTHING!" "NO UTILITY!" "THIS IS SO DANGEROUS TO OUR ECONOMY!" "SOMEBODY DO SOMETHING!" • There will finally be another very needed and prolonged correction down to a level about twice the previous ATH • As we find a stable price in the low to mid $100K, the BDS-ers will claim victory and constantly say "I told you so." • Bitcoiners will keep building, keep stacking sats, keep using it as their money, and keep watching things get cheaper as priced in #Bitcoin ... and in another couple of years we will do this all over again... AGAIN... just adding another zero to the price. (save this note)

I don't eliminate that as a possibility at all. It'll travel the path of greatest pain. Therefore if most people think it'll stop around $200K and pile on the shorts around there, it'll probably rocket up to $500K, THEN they'll be convinced it'll run out of steam, and it'll rocket up to a Mil, and then they'll be so scared of it they won't know what to do, and they'll just dump the crumbs they have left over into it, and it'll finally crash all the way back down to $250K, before - in utter despair - they sell everything... and it starts a strong climb again. 🤣

I think you're wrong on the timing & the prices. The general theme is accurate I just think it will more closely resembles epoch 2 or 3's price discovery. I also think the draw downs will be less severe/persistent during periods of consolidation. I suspect there are many with a desire & means to accumulate a sizeable amount of Bitcoin. I think this cohort is increasing in number. They're price sensitive & have longer time horizons than most consumer trader cohorts. My beliefs just confirm that I shouldn't be trading this stuff while attempting to increase my stack. I will probably still conservatively hedge against huge drawdowns, since I have little fiat income now.

I actually agree with you and my post was a lot less to do with the prices specifically, and more to do with how we will get there and what the people who suffer from BDS will say and how they'll act.

It's money that is monetizing. This stage is obvious and should be expected. And most people have always used KYC exchanges for most of their purchases. If you want to be a doomer about that go ahead, but there are a lot of great tools for getting non-KYC coins. And I don't have any idea what you mean by "fiat backing." Gives the feeling of something you suspect sounds edgy, when really it's meaningless. Just sayin.

I'll save it. I think you're wrong about "corrections" or consolidations. You may just be trying to think nicely about it as you want sats as cheap as possible for as long as possible. We're all on the same side here, so let's have a friendly bet.