Oddbean new post about | logout
 Yeah, so, it's gotten worse.
I can literally feel the decline because I don't usually post about Bitcoin and it's like 🦗🦗🦗🦗
 https://image.nostr.build/34e83e927b12dc596959600a6505f49368a4a99c39382b0b051ec304a75ec084.jpg 
 It's time for algo dopamine feeds.
nostr:nevent1qqsqjn6n060hftuug0r68q3g9j5069kv6yzk7cku7g4gnqwt5az7rzsu605gn 
 Going off that metric, of ALL the people who signed up in October, there are none left🤔.  
 Don't know if it's accurate, but that would be the cohort who got hit by ReplyGuy, right after joining. 
 Aaah, yes. I forgot about the fool!  
 I have ~ no trust in the stats
There's no way these changes in variability are a real effect
https://i.nostr.build/tmzv3lIQtVY6Zbgz.jpg 
 That chart is only in 5k increments. It checks out. 
 I mean the day-to-day variability
Prior to end of August you've got an eyeball variance of +/- 500 per day at the 95% confidence interval, superimposed on a linear trend

That started in January and lasted for 8 months

https://i.nostr.build/Ob9JcteETwEQPzM8.jpg

Then there's a step change to +/- 7,000 per day superimposed on I don't even know wtf to call that, which lasted about 2 months

Now it looks like we're back to +/- 500

I can't think of a reasonable model of human behaviour that would produce 10-fold step changes in variance 
 It is to a point that I thought that there is something wrong with my accout, relays, etc.  
 Make sure you include wss://christpill.nostr1.com in your relays. That's one where a lot of us are congregating and reading from. 
 Thanks. 
 I didn't even know that there is a dedicated relay like this. I really appreciate you sharing it.