Oddbean

Russia will escalate in the smallest way possible that is still effective. Launching nukes from those subs would not be a small escalation and it would be retaliated against while those nukes were still flying upwards. But I agree with you that the US won't react to the provocation by attacking Russian ships, but they probably will shadow their ships with ships and airplanes of their own.

Agreed that based on earlier events, Russia would not respond with nukes. But, attacking those ships would be a declaration of war regardless. Perhaps a more realistic response would be them to destroy a selected US naval base with hypersonic missiles that have conventional but still powerful warheads, launched from either those said subs or ships on the surface. It also should be noted that the ships Ukraine managed to destroy on the Black Sea were mostly older, smaller vessels without decent AD systems. And maybe not adequately prepared for drone attacks. That would not be the case with the ships that are in question now. It’s an extremely dangerous game they are playing here, approaching a Cuban missile crisis 2.0, if you will.

After comparing NATO expansion to the Cuba missile crisis and talking about the Monroe doctrine for YEARS, the West remains deaf, completely ignores it. So I think Putin can't "talk" to the West anymore. They don't hear him. The only thing they hear is the movement of weapons and ships, etc. So he is basically saying the same thing he has been saying since at least 2009, just with ships this time.

Russia has said that if these provocations continue, they will arm the Houthis and the other members of the axis of resistance. If that happens, all US bases in the middle east will be destroyed as will Israel. The Russians aren't screwing around anymore. Can you imagine what the US would do if the Russians trained an army in Canada or Mexico to directly attack the US? For gawds sake, that's what we've been doing in Ukraine after managing the coup in 2012! Russia is showing great restraint, until now. Directly attacking Russia with supplied NATO weapons that require a NATO soldier to configure and select a target is a redline for Russia. Someone in the US administration has got to play the grown-up and stop these extremely dangerous escalations FFS!

Yes I heard this too. I think it is a very reasonable response because it doesn't risk direct conflict, but it is clearly Russia hurting the West in retaliation for the West clearly (though not directly) hurting Russia, so it would be an effective deterrant towards further Western escalation and something to put on the negotiating table.

All Russia is doing is giving the US the same treatment as they're experiencing on their borders. Many Americans don't seem to understand that the US practices bombing runs every day on the Russian Federations borders. Using an attack profile is extremely dangerous when practiced against a nation with nuclear capabilities. That's how reckless NATO has been! The fools think Russia is bluffing. I wouldn't be taking that chance. Why is Putin the only adult in the room for fucks sake!?