Oddbean new post about login | logout Been researching a potential real estate investment Thinking to buy some land then build a family home Almost every single advertised plot says the same thing “Once in a lifetime” “Rare” “Exclusive” “First time on the market in 40 years” Which can be deduced to mean: scarcity Little do people realise that digital scarcity has been discovered It’s hard to translate the fact there will only ever be 21 million…
lots of thoughts - scarce along which use case? Land IS scarce. And is unhedgable for your meat suit. Our hearts on Bitcoin, our ass in meatspace.
“unhedgable for your meat suit” This hits home My wife likes to say “you can’t live in a Bitcoin” At some stage it makes sense to have physical assets for sure To live somewhere eg is a big deal & totally different to store-of-value I guess I’ve spent the day looking at properly going “wtf, these guys have no idea there is only 21 million” Whilst there always seems to be the next off market land deal Interesting process
i think culturally we over-define risk. Bitcoin IS a hedge, but that's only a few lines on your life's risk register. We are all ultimately short vol/mortal. Money is just a means to the ends of achieving freedom and human potential, but we still own the 'total' responsibility of that. The money's fixed. Good, but the analog map has not been made any safer, arguably less safe in a transitional period. So it's a spanner for a bolt, and a hammer for a nail. And its a bitcoin for an inflationary, confiscatory and censorious era, and freehold productive multi use land for the scramble we're sailing into. Long vol = most amount of options in the widest range of future circumstances. Basically stay humble. Not a glib line, literally plan along the lines that you dont know what is going to happen. First fear you think of is the first risk on the register. And let the hammer people argue with the spanner people about who's the best. Have a bit of everything, even luxury.
So cool how your “vol” experience has helped shaped your thinking, with then the Bitcoin twist A amalgamation of those things is the current you (as we all are) Money is fixed. Yes. Money is also still the same: a technology that is useful for what it buys you The question then becomes an allocation one. How much of what thing should you own?
Agree with the sentiment. I’ve always believed real estate folks should easily understand bitcoin since it’s digital real estate. Been meaning to write a mini book on this.
What’s stopping you thus far? It would be a great exercise to go through.
We’re behind on a year’s worth of writing after being in the road so need to prioritize where the time is spent. It’s on the list, will get to it once I finish up writing about each country we visited the past year.
Nothing beats bitcoin as an asset. I consider land from a near forever pradigm as a permaculturalist. Most families are wandering generation to generation like refugees. Is the land productive, fertile, well sun exposed and drain well? How does the wind blow, where is the fire lane, flood plane? Do you have your own fresh water well? Can you keep animals there? Are the roads maintained? Imagine each season. Are there reliable utilities? Are the neighbors cool? Is there a market for fresh goods nearby? Is the county hands off? Can you burn a wood stove? Undeveloped land is complex to develop and has unknown pitfalls. Building a home right now can be expensive. Contractors in my area are in short supply. Mortgage rates get determined at the time of finishing which is a big unknown. Wives want homes to call there own. And it is unique in that the banks will give you that access to fiat. But in the end most of the time home owners are simply paying to maintain an asset the bank owns in return for a little equity, piece of mind and some memories.