Oddbean

GM. I'm bullish on bitcoin, and I think a lot of people overthink it. One of my favorite metrics is the market value vs realized value ratio. The realized value is basically just the on-chain cost basis. The value of UTXOs at the dollar price during which they last moved between wallets, which often means the time people pulled them from exchanges or deposited them to exchanges. https://m.primal.net/LXov.png A relatively small amount of marginal buying can push up the market value by a lot. Like how if you buy one house on a street, it can boost the estimated price of all houses on that street even though only one of them traded hands. But when market value becomes stretched relative to cost basis, it means that part of the market value is kind of illusory. We don't *really* know what houses on that street are worth if only one of them traded hands recently and thus liquidity was low. Over time, as more houses on that street trade hands and we have more price points, the estimated value of the street becomes more real. The same thing for bitcoin; as more bitcoin trades hands at certain levels, it starts to make that level "real" compared to how real we should consider it when it just touches a certain level for a little while with limited volume. Right now, bitcoin is at an all-time high in its realized price, i.e. cost basis. Back when bitcoin was poking over $60k in April 2021, the cost basis for the network was only about $350 billion. Now, at the same market price, the cost basis approaches $650 billion, or more than twice as high. The marginal bitcoin has traded hands and moved between wallets at much higher prices than years ago, even though the market price is about the same. In other words, these levels have been truly liquid and been consummated by the market more than they were back in 2021, and thus the price is more robust at this level than back then. The launch of the spot ETFs pulled forward some excitement this year, and so we've been in this big consolidation since March. But even in that time period from March to the present, the on-chain cost basis increased from like $520 billion to $640 billion, and so price discovery and progress is being made despite the ongoing price chop. As the network builds a bigger and more solid base like it has been doing, it can set the stage for the next major breakout. The network looks healthy to me. https://m.primal.net/LXpf.png

@slavery debt system from child labor up to retirement in social contract system unlike soul contract even SMART contract in existing agreement no benefit for labor regardless unless robot worker from wage up to saving account especially in colonial account is systemic issues that need exit strategy like decentralized system and technical issues is financial education not financial advice like unequal pay slogan because first not only transaction but also settlement of payment system and second even financial expert including rating agency bias with four variable even in payment which is price cost value and worth including in mathematical calculation of risk and return. https://t.me/c/1819883896/4871

Really like MVRV. True Market Value is interesting as well in that it reduces the impact of 1,000,000 BTC at zero value (Satoshi’s stash) and other piles similar to that due to the duration held. Checkonchain.com has a bunch of charts like this. https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_aviv_1/mvrv_aviv_1_light.html

Forex is a complicated mess. The epicenter of fiat madness in a way. I can't speak to that. I would assume that inflation in general would have an impact here as well, but that's true for the bitcoin price in general. I mean imagine trying to calculate an inflation adjusted bitcoin price lol. Doesn't make sense because the bitcoin price is an expression of fiat inflation. Just my 2 sats

For anyone looking here's a FOSS version of pretty much the same chart updated every single block (with the price instead of the market cap): https://kibo.money/date-to-market-price-to-realized-price-ratio?from=2016-03-24&to=2026-04-03

Regardless of what you think of him, Larry Fink's conversion is one of the top stories of this cycle. And its bigger than the ETF - he is pitching hard money to anyone who will listen. It's a remarkable evolution.

nostr:nprofile1qqsw4v882mfjhq9u63j08kzyhqzqxqc8tgf740p4nxnk9jdv02u37ncpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9uju6mpd4czuumfw3jsz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsq3yamnwvaz7tmsw4e8qmr9wpskwtn9wvql3tqm could probably figure out the "realized cost basis" for Harry Potter and conclude he must be real.

Great insight. Thanks for sharing. Checkmate is often all over this metric, which is one of the reasons I like his content as well (and am a paying subscriber) Chopsolidation is very healthy... If a bit boring! The key: staying focused on the strategy, and not getting distracted by shiny objects along the way